POSTWAR TRENDS IN MANPOWER OF THE USSR AND THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A000300150002-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 23, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 1, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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5
PROVISIONAL INTELLIOENCE REPORT
POSS1" AR TRENDS IN MANPOWER OF TIE USSR
AND THE EOROPT SATELLITESS
I9I.i7-57
DOCUMENTNO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
D DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2 r
DATE(RE'Jlf WER: 006__ 513
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CONT4,NTS
Sun ary O O O. 0 O O q i . O ? O o O O O O 9 O 0
I USSR and European Satellites ..? a. a 0 0 0? 0. 0 a 2
~Aj ~ Total Population. 0 . G . . . . . . O . . a . . a 0 0
77 3 Civil Employment O O O . O O O O O O . O O e O . O O
1. Agricultural Labor . o ? . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 O 'D 2
2 0 Nonagricultural Labor . o a o.. o O O.. o O 0 4
3. Industry, Mining, and Construction O a. o V 0 O 4
C,, Increaser in Trained Manpower ... 0 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0*
II.9 USSR 0 0 0 0 a e a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 o G.,,
An Total, Population ... 0 0 0 0 g o o Go 00 00.9 .,
B0 Civilian Employment . e o o a o. o. 0 e.. o o o r?
C. Composition of the Labor Force e 0 . . . 0 G o
D, Increases in Trained Manpower . 0 e 0 0. O. O
Ill. European Satellites e ? O . 0 o 0 ? ? 0 ? e . e . . . 0 0
A. Total Population q...? a e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e 0 0
B. Civilian Employment o a o a o... 0. 0 0.. o o.
C0 Increases in Trained Manpower . . O e o ? . . ,:a o
Tables and Appendixes
Table 1a Estimated Total Population and Employment
of the USSR and the European Satellites,
19t-7, 1952, 1957 0? e 0 o e a c. o e. o 0
Table 2,, Estimated~+'Oopulation and Employment in the USSR,
1Oh7fl 1Q529 1957 0 . 000 o c o o
9
9
10
11
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Table 3.
Appendix A.
Anmendix R.
Appendix C.
Estimated Population and hrnployement
in the European Satellites,, 1947, 1952,
1957 ? o. a 0 0 o a e? a a a e? a . . . . . 9
Estimated Population of the USSR
and the European Satellites, 19h7,
1952, 1957 (Table ).) ? e. e a. a a a e. a 13
15
and the European Satellites, 190, 19529
1957 (Table 6) a o e? a. o ? n e o ?0 0 0 -r. 17
Distribution of Workers and Employees
in the USSR, 191t7, 1952, 1957 (Table 5)
Estimated Employment in the USSR
.g PaL
Q~r ir
Figure 1., European Bloc and USs Manpower Indexes, r~
1952 . 0 0 -o .... e a e a a 0? a.? v? o 2
Figure 2. USSR and European Satellites Rates of
Increase In Employment, 107.57 0. a? e a 0 6
Figure 3. U`'cR, Distribution of Workers
anti Employees, 19h7a57 ? ? ? . ? 0 0 0 e ? a o 6
Figure ho US.'ZR and Selected European Satellitees Non-
a -ricultural Employment and Employment
in Industry, Mining, and Construction, 107
and 1457 o a o ?n 0 o v a e o r. ? a o 0 0 0 0? 10
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Pc WWAR TRTNTIR IN MA9POWER oF THE USSR
A*U) THE EUROPEAN SA TELLI TE.S
19k7-5?
The present trends of population in the USSR and the European Satel-
lites are expected to produce an increase of about hO million during the
period 19h7-570 This increase, together with internal shifts in the uti'
lixation of labor during the period, will permit an expansion of the non-
agricultural labor force by 22 million,,, or 47 percent,, to a high of almost
70 million workers and employees. Employment in industry,, mining, and
construction is expected to rise 66 percent. In addition, the labor force
will be better staffed as a result of the compulsory education program
and the training of skilled engineering,, professionals and technical
workers, who are increasing at a more rapid rate than the total labor
force"
Tn the U`'SR the estimated increase in the number of workers and
employees from 19h7 to 1957 amounts to 11t million, a rise of 43,5 per-
cent during the 10-year period,, the Soviet labor force in 1957 will
be composed primarily of individuals in the 15- to 60d year age group
with a proportion of skilled and technical personnel that should compare
favorably with that of the "I stern European labor force,,
The development of the labor force of the European Satellites will
follow the same pattern as that of the USSR, reaching a total of 2307
million in the nonagricultural sector of the economy by 19570
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US' 5F! and ?,ur2n&n Sets ev' m
A? Total population-
1 efore World War II the rates of uotiulation inCreass in the
UFSR and the European Satellites were more rapid than ix Western
Europe4 Although the rate of population growth in the USSR is not
rising so rapidly at present, it is still high (15 per 1,O0O per year).
The rates of postwar population increases in the iuropean Satel-
lites are about equal to or above prewar levels, except in East
Germany and Hungary. it is estimated that the population will con-
tinue to increase at these rates in the USSR and the European
Satellites, producing an aggregate population increase of about ItO
million, or 1L3 percent, from 19117 to 1Q570 (:fee Tat-le 1* and
Figure 10 ). The estimated population of the 1SfiR and the European
Satellites for 195? will be double the present population of the US,
(See also Table It, Appendix A0***)
B. CiV IIpo
3,o Agricultural Labora
A study of rural economies in Eastern urope made for
the League of Nations indicated that in about 1930 the. nations
which are now European Satellites had an excess population***** dependent anon agriculture of about 15 million people, or about 4.5
million male agricultural workere0 Agricultural workers are still
in excess throughout the Soviet k100o The policies of the Commu-
nists are directed at reducing this overpopulation in agriculture by
a ' i follows on P. 30
Following P. 2 0
below
+a F
13
,
0
Wilbert Ea Moore, Economic Damographvv E tern and
a
s
-- -
ow ~aaes n Ear.. "'j;; , .?+
case population was measured by calculating the number
needed for current production if the European average per capita
output could be attained. The difference between this requirement
and the actual population dependent on agriculture was counted as
excess o
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mechanization and collectivization of farms and transfers of indict
viduals to industry. Petween 191,7 and 1957, an estimated reduction
of 7 million agricultural workers, as shown in Table 1, is likely
to be achieved: 5 million in the USSR and 2 million in the European
Satellites. The creation of a balance between agriculture and
industry in the European Satellites, however,, will have barely
begun by 19574 It is assumed that a considerable.surplus of labor
will remain for transfer to industry ar: agricultural productivity
increases,
2. Ncultural Labor.
The planned* increase in the nonagricultural labor
force during the years 19h7m57 is estimated at 22 million, or
h7 percent. The increase will result from transfers of appire-
ciable numbers now employed in agriculture, utilization of the
natural increase in the working age population, and employment
of more women in industrial labor in the European Satellites.
3. Inds Mining, and Cons_ tion.
The increases planned for employment in industry,
mining, and construction between 190 and 1957 (66 percent)
are nearly 11 times as rapid as the increases in total.nonegri4.
cultural employment (ts7 percent). Nonagricultural employ
ment in the UFSR and the European Satellites in 1952 is esti-
mated to have been slightly greater than nonagricultural employ-
ment in the M., but employment in industry, mining, andcon-
structi.on in these countries** is estimated at nearly 31 million
as against 19 million in the US.*ua This difference demonstrates
~annec 'f s used in this report as follows s figures
from 19117 to 1952 represent estimates based on past plans
and performance announced; from 1952 to 1957,: figures from
announced plans are used unless evidence indicates notable
failure to achieve goals; if plans do not extend to 1957,x, maths
matical projections are used,
Albania is not included in this total,,
The US figure Includes only contract construction and is
therefore slightly too low to be strictly comparable.
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the lesser emphasis on trade and consumer services that is charac-
teristic of Communist econanies0
C. Inca in Trained Manpower.
The well-integrated system of vocational training in prewar
USSR has been revived and expanded since the war. The European
Satellites are rapidly reorganizing their educational systems to con-
form to this Soviet pattern. The increase in the number of graduates
of vocational and technical schools is indicated in Table 1 and
Figure 2.* The estimated rate of increase in skilled workers was
almost twice as rapid as that of the total nonagricultural labor force
(89 percent as compared with ti7 percent),, The rate of increase in
engineering, professional., and technical personnel was three times
as rapid (1h2 percent).**
The development of all elements of the labor force was
more rapid in the first 5 years of the 19h7-57 period than that
planned for the second 5-year period, since the rapid rate of re-
covery during the immediate postwar years could not be main-
tained once the prewar level had been attained, The slowdown
occurred during 19118 in most phases of the economy of the USSR
but occurred later in some of the Satellites. The change is cony=
siatent with the announced changes in the Soviet index of Industrial
production.
A. Total Population.
An announcement by L.P. Beriya on 7 November?1951 stated .
that in 1950 the annual increase in the population of the USSR was
Following p. 60
For the purpose of this report, the output of on-the-job training.,
apprentice training,, and labor reserve schools has been considered
the increment to the skilled labor force.. The graduates from full
3= and ti-year vocational high schools have been classed as technical
workers, and the graduates of higher institutions as professional and
engineering personnels
45-
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"over 3 million," This estimate and other estimates indicate a total
increase of over 33 million for the period 19h7=57, bringing the
total at the end of the period to almost 225 million (see Table 2)c*
B. Civilian mpioyment,
If present trends continue at a slightly slackened rate, the
number of workers and employees in the USSR will have increased
by lh million or U.5 percent, from 19h7 to 1957, The total by
1957 will be !6,2 million, of whom about 113 million will be in the
nonagricultural sectors and over 3 million in State agriculture.
The estimated increase of 14 million workers and em?
ployees is computed on the basin of the following projected changes,
(1) a net increase of 5 million In total employment, (2) a gain of
5 million at the expense of collective farms, and (3) a redistribu-
tion of h million slave laborers from their present statue to non-
agricultural employment. This estimate is based on projections
of present trends and information indicating that because of the
increasing productivity, collective farms will require fewer agri-
cultural laborers.
Employment in industry, mining, and construction is planned
to increase during the 10-year period by 6,6 million, or h5 percent,
slightly greater than the percentage increase in total workers and
employees, The total of 19.1 million workers in this sector by 1957
Is about equal to present M. employment, Soviet employment was
already heavily concentrated in these critical sectors by 191x7. In
192, ?3 percent of nonagricultural workers in the USSR were in
industry, mining, and construction as compared with 36 percent in
the US (see Table 2).**
# Table 2 f ollowas on p. 7.
The distribution of Soviet workers and employees is broken
down in detail in Table 5, Appendix B (po 15, below), and in Figure 3
(following p, 6)?
CCr;!TfENTIAL
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FIGURE 2
USSR AND EUROPEAN SATELLITES
RATES OF INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT
1947-57
80
2
1947 1948 1950 1952 1954
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AGRICULTURAL
NONAGRI
CULTURAL
INDUSTRY, MIN
AND CONSTRU
ING,
CTION
SKILLED
ENGIN
AND T
EERING, PROFESSI
ECHNICAL
ONAL,
NO
Logarithmic
to show rate
TE
scale used
s of change.
J
1957
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C. Comnosition of the Labor Force.
The estimated increase in the 15-to 60-year age group for
19h7a57 is 23.b million, 12,11 million of wham will be males. As
a rePult9 both the employed group and the nonworking group (primarily
students and housewives) will increase. The percentage of the
labor force under 15 and over 59 is expected to drop. The estimated
net Increase of 5 million employed individuals results from an
increase of lla5 million persons in the 15' to 60-year age group and
a 6.5-million decrease in the employment of other age groups
Since the 11.7 million underage and overage workers in
19P4 had a productivity considerably below average,, the decrease
in employment of these individuals and the increase in employment
of the 15? to 60--year age group is expected to improve the quality
.of the Soviet labor force. Although some of the older workers
will remain employed, most of the under=15 age group will,, as a
result of the compulsory education program, be in schools,
D. Increases in Trained Manpower.
The Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) provides for the intro-
duction of compulsory 10-year education in the cities. Since,,, be-
fore 1950, the drive for compulsory education through the seventh
grade had already enrolled 90 percent of the 11- to lI-year age
group, the percentage of those over 15 who can stay in school is
expected to rise.. The'system of compulsory education is expected
to raise the quality of the labor force., It has already sharply
reduced the number trained in the less efficient labor reserve
schools and increased the enrollments In the regular and technical
high schools. This rthift9 in turnr, increases the enrollment in
higher educational institutions, It is estimated that enrollment of
youth over 15 in the regular high schools,. technical high schools,,
and higher institutions will increase from. 2.5 million in 190 to
74.5 million in 1957. The annual rate of graduation at the end of the
period is estimated at about 5009000 from technical high schools
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and over 200,000 from higher institutions This increment will in-
creaFe the corps of engineers and technicians by 156 percent during
the period 1917:57, bringing the number to 707 million.
The facilities for training skilled workers,,, including the
training for higher skills of those already employed,, are also turn=
ing out a Fufficient number to increase this group at a faster rate
than the Increase in total workers and employees,, At the and of the
period the proportion of technical and skilled employees to the total
employees in industry should compare favorably with that in V.estern
Europe..
M. European Satellites.
1 Po ulation.
The total population increase in the European satellites from
1'Pt7 to 19578 as indicated in Table 3. is eestimated at 6?L million,,
bringing the total to 9h,2 million by 1957. The rate of increase of only
Table 3
Estimated population and. Employment in the European Satellites
19te7p 1952,, 1957
2oMamie
Increase
1947
192
197
191757
Total Population
87.8
90.8
9h I,2
6~1~
Civilian Employment
380Es
8
hl-9
4408
bate
Agricultural Employment
23.0
2200
211
-14
Nonagricultural Employment
15.1k
19.9
2307
84
industry,, Mining,, and Construc-
tion
8.6
1302'
16,1
705
Skilled
2.9
309
548
2'e9
I ineering,, Prof
and Technical
1-h
1.9
300
1,6
t.f
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7.3 percent for the 10 years is less than half the rate of increase
in the t]S., t? The rates for the different Satellites are variable,
ranging from 0 i> the Soviet Zone of Germany to 22 per thousand
in Albania?
B. Civilian Eranloyment.
The European Satellites plan to increase civilian employ-
ment by 6dh r+i111on, or over 16 percent, a rate of increase more
rapid then that in the USSR. The more rapid rate of increase in
employment than in vopulation is an index of the increasing employ-
ment of women. The net increase of 6.lt million results from a
decrease of 1,9 million in agriculture and an increase of 8.3 mil-
lion in nonagricultural employment. A large excess of farm labor,,
however, would still be available if average European agricultural
productivity could be reached in the Satellites.
Over 80 percent of the total increase in nonagricultural
employment is planned for allocation to industry,, mining, and
construction - those sectors of the economy considered most
vital by the Communists., The addition of 7,5 million employees
in these sectors of the economy will result in a total of 1601 mil-
lion by 1957.
East Germany and Czechoslovakia, highly industrialised
nations before World War II, plan only modest increases in Indus,
try, mining, and construction during the 10-year period. Substan-
tial increases amounting to 85 percent in Poland and 135 percent
in Bulgaria are estimated. Very rapid increases of 280 and 310
percent, respectively, are projected for Hungary and Rumania,,
not only because these countries had a relatively small prewar
industrial base~A also because they were just beginning postwar
recovery in 19h7 1' (Sea Table 6Q Appendix C.* and Figure loo*)
Following p, 10.
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