OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES, FAR EAST/PACIFIC BRANCH INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS NO. 11 WEEK OF 20 JULY - 26 JULY 1948

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79-01090A000500010003-3
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
13
Document Creation Date: 
December 12, 2016
Document Release Date: 
October 23, 2000
Sequence Number: 
3
Case Number: 
Content Type: 
PERRPT
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP79-01090A000500010003-3.pdf1.03 MB
Body: 
Approved Forlease 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109(0500010003-3 OFFICE O 'V REPORTS ASQD ESTIMATES? {'I OCUMJENTNO. Z FAR EAST/PACTFIC BRAN CE NO CHANGE IN CLASS. -, U~CLfiiG:fi~iEfJ ~W INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS NO. 11 CLASS. CHANGrD TO: T Vd.EEK OF 20 Y .~ 26 JOLT 1948 NEXT REVIEW CA rti: RATE. H` - EVIEWEf: 37'',044-.... SECTION I- SUMMARY Or FAR EAST TRENDS AND DEVELOP~NTS The US proposal for increased Sino Japanese trade with particular reference to its relationship to the China Aid Program can be expected to elicit a vehement reaction in China (page 3), Chinese Nationalist Government fear that all Korea will fall into the Soviet orbit and its consequent desire to keep the US in South Korea until an adequate native security force Is established has motivated recent Chase pressure on Kim Koo and Kim Kyu Sik to support the South Korean regime (page 4). The Department of Stat`a holds that Siam-Japanese trade is not inimical to US-Siamese trade (page 4)o The shipment of arms and ammunition to: Malaya has become a major issue in Australia and has resulted in unusually swift consideration by the Labor Goverrnt of mans to circumvent bans Imposed by left-wing labor unions (page 5)0 A recent Soviet broadcast beamed to Japan implies that only 200,000 more Japanese rea ,in' to be repatriated-as contrasted with US and Japanese est .m antes of 6O0~000, thus leaving 400,000 su oeounted .for (page 5) d Although SCAP's suggestion that the Japanese adopt legislation for- bidding strikes by goverhment workers may a rt an impending labor crisis harmful to Japanese economic recovery, leaders of the affected unions are bitter over the implications of the suggested restriction of presently legal activities (page 8) m x ~~ subceedisag seetLon~ of th 0, Wee y, this a]a~; rmarg notations are useds (1) Double asterisk (**) -plaoed at beginning and end of in-vor- a ation based solely on "S/8 distribution:" series,, (2) Single asterisk (e) to flag item containing "S/S distribution" series* (3) "A" s "B". or "C" --importance:, in BAN' is opinion, of the item, with "A" representing the most important o:nes? State Dept. declassification & uWinsfructions on file Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 E D ALA 1 i Approved For Iease 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-01090 00500010003-3 SECRET Swan (contimkod) Tho' Chinese National Government remains in a precarious situatioft .(page 8)9 although during the past week there have been no significant now developments threatening its overthrow, The military outlook for Nanking is very gloomy (page 8). Financially the Government is believed to be hopelessly insolvent (page 8). Burmese Prime Minister, Thakin Nu, may risk an attempt to capitalize on possible dissension d,thin the Burmese Communist Party by offering to include an snti-inourrootion Communist in a reshuffled cabinet (page u). Continuing disturbances in Malaya may reduce rubber exports in the near future (page U), The President of the Frenoh--sponsored central government in Indochina admits weaknesses of his govornment (pagall). The extensions by the Philippine Government of the deadline 'for arms surrender are raising doubts as to the .success of amnesty (page u). A recent Australian-Chinese agreement on Chinese businessmen in Australia may represent a modification of the "Mite Australia" policy' (page)2)o r-41- r WA Approved For Release 2001/08/26 :CIA-RDP79-01090A000500010003-3 Approved Fo elease 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109WO0500010003-3 SECRET -3- SECTION II. DEVELOPMENTS IN SPETIFIED AREAS Increase in Sino-Japanese trade su Bested bV Department of State "A" ~wrtw in ww+ wi wwrw rw smwwo.ew The Department of State has advised US Embassy Nanking that arrange- ments for increased Sint-Japanese trade would be desirable. It believes that some of the requirements for reconstruction projects under the China Aid Program to be paid for from RCA funds, e.g. railroad construction or other machinery and spare parts, probably can be obtained at lees cost and greater speed in Japan than in the US or other available sources. In addition, increased trade on open account might take the form of China ex- porting to Japan an increased volume of salt, sugar, Fruits, Tung oil, egg products, minerals, and a portion of wheat bran from ECA wheat milled in China; for its part, Japan could ship timber, rayon yarn, textile equipment and miscellaneous goods. The Department believes that the crux of Sino-Japanese trade is iron ore and coking coal. Japan can compensate for Kailan (coking) coal by supplying Shanghai with boiler coal and presumably mining timbers for Kailane In addition, redevelopment of iron ore resources in Hainan could be explored. The Department recognizes the hostility of China to Japanese economic development and states that it should be stressed to the Chinese that iron ore and coking.coal chipped to Japan would be a Chinese self-help measure, in that these commodities are required for the manufacture of specific steel products needed for approved reconstruction projects in China. The expansion of Chinese exports of iron ore and coking coal to'Japan would be of major aid to Japanese economic rehsbilitatitane Moreover,, availability of coking coal and iron ore in China would loosen the Japanese necessity to procure these commodities from USSR-controlled areas, e.g. Sakhalin and would correspondingly reduce the probability of the Japanese economy becoming Soviet oriented. Nonetheless,, the proposal for such increased trade, since it envisages expansion of Japanese heavy industry, can be expected to elicit a vehement reaction in China which would undoubtedly stir up further the already noticeable Chinese resentment against the China Aid Program. Generally, expansion of Sino-Japanese trade would stimulate economic progress and stability in the Par East. Increase in economic stability would mean concomitant improvement in US security interests. Japanese and Chinese economic rehabilitation would decrease the possibility of economic unrest being exploited by Communist interests. In addition to being a stabilizing factor in the Far East economy such trade would lessen the drain on US aid funds Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 Approved Forwease 2001/08/26: CIA-RDP79-01090 J0500010003-3 SECRET GJNMM (00nt:9 d) Chinese ~Ta~i..ontaliat Government f?ean that all Korea wi.1l 'al ixat S.cavi. ~~~ _.~.1_ -._._~..... Cl uese ' 'ationalist Gove rna nt fear that all torea will. f?411 into t Soviet orbit and 'its corsoquent desire to keep the US in Sou'bh Korea until an adequate native eeourtty force is established has rtot .vated recent 'thin=s pressure on Kim Zoo and:Kim Iyu Sik to support the South Korean rog ? This pressure s and btedly a contributing factor in the i seen statement by the two politiotaxne td oh denounced the establiebmeait of a eparate regime in North Korea to a stop toward civil war* The Chinese Consul Gendral in Seoul , is reported to have delivered a message from Chiang Eai-shek to both Kim?s., and to RhO'e Sy n, which took the tvo Kim to task f"or a ? erp14 -to deal with the C u .s ce controlling North Korea and threatened to disavow all tbree, loaders s if they did not join forces in attempting to make the new South Korean Government a success..Although rise claims that he is agreeable to including the two .R3.me in his goverznt, he has said that their rent rather w=ale and piouely6worded st ,te eent does not oons.tituto a sufficient disavowal of their previous North Korean ventures - owpite China's generally. weak international position,,it can continue to exert considerable influence an South Korean politics due to Chiang's long standing association with present-day Korean political leaders through the exiled Korean. Provisional Government in Ck g ng8 and China's present strategic p6sition on the UN Temporary Cession on Korea? Siam-3a sae trade . , ld not inimical 'to lS iameao trdc cAc The Department of State, in. reply to a warning by + .be Anbaesaeior to Sion of possible oonfliots inherent in the proposed revival of Siau' Jaapenese trade bySIAP, has stated that the,'developmnt of SiJapanaso trade io not necessarily inimical to US trade interests in Siam because: (1) to conorve scarce .dollars, Japan is being enocuraged to ; increase pur?ehasos. from non- dollar areas; (N) revival o2 Japan'c+ interna' .onal trade is imperative olLder.td rehabilitate Japa&e ebozs which is being. atv intxined by the tZ at a high smiual stoat; (3) At Is not anticipated that the d4Vblopment of Sims. Japanese trade will interfere Frith 'US atra ;ic stockapil3n.g of. ru r and tin; and (4) I Siam can secure goods more advantageously in Japan, the resultant ,savunge should enable SiaZ ? to purchase goo&e most aconomieally obt rood i.n the US and other countries, thus stlastula'ting e k. *lure. of trade move niso Ths ]?apart mutts position is represented as entirely in accord with tho US objective of fostering the general-development of international trade on a multilateral basis and permitting equal acoess by all countries to markets as well as in line with the US supported IT'O Charter . and the General A yee?. meat on Trade and Tariffs,, Approved For Release 200/26 /08~ CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 Approved FQ,C,Release 2001/08/26 CIA-RDP79-010QQA000500010003-3 SECRET GEMMIAL (continued) Ski nt of arms and ammunition to 1tala becomes - or issue In Australia, The shipment of arms and eumlmanition to Malaya has become a major issue in Australia and has resulted in unusually swift consideration by the tabor Government of means to oiroumvent bang imposed by left-+wing labor unions o Informal requests from Malaya apparently have already been made in view of the Government*s announcement that it will use Air Force planes and naval vessels to transport any arum it may decide to ship# thug oirctmventing union bans. *Be The SYDNEY MORWING HERALD has reported its view that the present die. orders were planned at a Maroh 1948. meeting of the Indian Communist Party., held in Calcutta and attended by Australian Communists. According to this report, events in Burma and the outbreak of widespread sto 25X1C a es in th pp g e Australian coal fields were timed to coincide with the Malayan uprising. being; directed through the maritime unions, mentioning the possibility that Ernest Thornton, Communist Secretary of the Australian Federated Iron Workers and Eliot V. Elliott, Communist Secretary of the Australian Seamen's Union are key figures In the chain of direction, The. Seamen's union has already proclaimed its intent to impohe a ban. on shipments of arms to ll laya, a development which has been given prominence by the Moscow radio. The present situation in Malaya, coupled with the hostility encountered by Uo?fthon Ball's recent goodwill mission, could result in a reorientation of Australia's attitude toward the nationalist movements. in Southeast Asia. Australia's instantaneous reaction of support for the UK has already been compared with her opposition to the Dutch in Indonesia. However, it should be noted that in the ease of Malaya Australian interests, own about one quarter of the Malayan tda? mines and that Singapore is still considered by the Australians as vital to Australia's security* Rr Approved For Release 1/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 Approve4ZOr Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-6 OA000500010003-3 ..6n SECRET Industrial production i.n:lex continues u;,irrard curve. Preliminary fiCures 'for-April s,iow i,ra c ax;,anose 3.n us-Lr_fa ~rod.ueti on index has "C" reached its i?.: ':est i)ol.nt since of .'.o Occupation: 49.7 (the .base period 1930-34 r 100). This coripares t't'th an index of 49.3 in 71aroh 1948 and is a 23.0 percent improvement over the . ;>ril 1947 index of 39.9. USSR's Juaanose repatriation f'i.?urose A 20 July Soviet broadcast to Japan a:,:os groat 2a. ns to erj rc con" `r orts re;ardlnC Ja'1 ano se 11017s in the T4T3" USSR. The broadcast included the stutvnent: "It is sufficient to point out that the Soviet poo.,1e have never even thought of us;nG the 200,000 Jap:tnase os to fulfill the post-liar Five Year Plano" This a atement ce ;iln y in, that only 200,000 Japanese rorsatn to be repatriated which is a vastly dif- f'srent fl-'Lure from the a_pproxi.:nately 000,000 w ich ITS and Japanese officials claim are still in ITSOR-dominated areas. The difference of 400,000 between the fiGures is hard to reconcile. Should the Soviet broadcast have disro- Carded Japanese still in Saldialln and the I uril es the difference would still be over 200,000. It is possible that the USSR may have been advi sine Japan as to the maxintun number of nationals she may expect to have returned. The "difference" ragy be accounted for by a combination of the followi nG,: (a) deaths in POI carps; (b) need for a l:;borirV; force; (a) hostaG,,es for pangs future "good behavior", (d) denying; Japan trained field and General rank officers; (e) holdout troops in 17,unchuria who were never sent to S?j boriaa SOAP su,;,;ests ler,al ban on strikes by Jataaneso ;ovornmont w^ror1cers4 General as siv- ;est:o in a letter to Tre:a:ter Ashida th:ut Japan's ;Tationai. Public Service Law be revised to '.sotiiall.4o Government om_)loyeos -vrl:.o resort to strikes and other :t{ s,>uto tactics w iich tend to impair the efficiency of government ol)orat,'.onsa The tirain,; of this stop indicates an intention to avert by early action the re-occurrence of labor troubles between the government an? the o iloyees of state--run instrumentalities (railways, corirnanieations, and certain co-;riodity nonopl es) Where throats of a gen- eral strike have t-Ace before necessitated SOAP intorventiona In rocponse, the Jaapanese' Govicernrient has: (1) cancelled its acceptance of the mediation efforts of the Central Labor I elati.ons Board and (2) begun drafting a revised law preparatory to call tng a s eci aal session of the Diet to consider its passaag a. Pressure to brim; government emp1oyeesv gages more ne,&i ' into line with those of private industry has only recently made possible the consol- idation of the government employees' struggle with government. The disunity evident at the time of the Ll?arch co::ununi cations workers crisis when the government railway workers union (GRVU) under moderate leadership accepted the government 2920 yen wages standard, ended in June when leftists gained control of the GItJU and swung it into line with the other government workers' demands for a 5200 yen wage basep The govern nt on July 16 accepted mediation of those a~rage de "ands but it insisted that the demands are beyond the ability of the goverment to meet within the recently passed budget Approved For Release 01 /08/26 /08/26 : CIA-RDP79-01090A000500010003-3 CAM., no S 'we~. Approved Folease 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-01090,9b0500010003-3 SECRET J_'__ (Conte) which had boon balanced at SCAP's insistence in torus of a 3791 yen wage bases Chiefs of the affected unions are bitter o er the imp cations of SC4P2 s letter and ohargo that the govornr nt, in reversing its acceptance of mediation, is ignoring luborts present legal rightse K?RBA Rod resentations by Wash Y on to 1!osoovrt have failed to bri= about ernes o the. Sol. a o" roan a ec -ric ~av r rocs anq As axr ioipated, '"C? ie mm.~na In M, re-ply' to the Us note of June 2 , has reitoraated its position that all nationalized industries in North Korea, including oleo- trio power stations, are under the direction of the Peoples Coy . y t oe of North Korea and, that further negotiations conoerning electric power should therefore be conducted directly with that oornmitteob This course of action is politically impossible for the Wo since direct negotiations with the Peoples Co -ittee of North Korea would amount to de facto US recognition of the Soviet puppet government in North Korean Approved For Release 200 8'MIO /26 : CIA-RDP79-0109 OA000500016003-3 4W ~ Approved ForF'ase 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-01090500010003-3 SEC 'T a 01 National Government remains "B" unimproved. The low state of morale is attested by recurring rumors that high Nationalist officials have engaged in peace discussions with the Communists. There are increasing indications that the National Government, no longer confident that it can improve the situation in Manchuria and. North China, is giving serious consideration to a removal to South China. 8owevrmr such a withdrawal probably would precipitate military and political disinte' gration throughout Nationalist China. For the moment ache of the principal Nationalist leaders appears ready to participate in a move to force Chiang's overthrow. This reluctance is partly based on the fact that Chiang's Government is the recipient of U8 aid, in which they hope to benefitt and partly on their tear of piecemeal destruction in the event that the National Government breaks up. In addition, they realise that despite Chiang's great lose of prestige he still holds in Chinese politics a unique position of leadership which none of then can match. Some of then remain hopeful that he can be persuaded to delegate authority to competent and forceful administrators who will give the Government new vigor. The mtl outlook the Btu; o LI xgr ent rep ma . Pessimism "A" in high Nationalist circles compounded with the unrelieved low morale of both the populace and the troops militates against effective employment of avail able resources. Current widespread Communist military activity throughout North and. Central China is seriously threatening the government at Nanking. Despite the fact that the Communist forces in.Manchuria, their best, have been uncommitted for over three Months, the Nationalists have lost an esti- mated eighteen divisions in the same period. In North China the Communists will probably continue to harrass.Nh Teo--yi at widely separated points, forcing him to shuttle his first-line troops from place to place thus vitiating his strength, until additional, powerful Communist forces can be brought to bear upon Puna area from the north and the south. Fu will then be forced to retire once again into Suiyuan leaving Peiping and Tientsin to the Communists or to attempt some sort of an accommodation with the Communists. In Central China, the long-term Communist move to Isolate the large body of1ationalist troops deployed along the Lunghai railway by stopping all overland comimzni- cations with base areas-to the south is moving to fruition. The Communists now threaten to isolate the large Nationalist military center at Seuchou as the Chinghsien-gaifeng area and Sian have .pr viouely been isolated. If successful (and indications are that they will be), the Communists should then be in a position to carry the war southward into the Yangtze Valley in force. lnsovvenos of the National _Goyernmt o In an effort to arrive at a "A" settlement of the substantial Chinese indebtedness to the Export-Import Bank the latter has requested the Central Bank to furnish a complete and accurate financial statement listing all the Government's foreign exchange assets. T Approved For Release 2001/0 6 : CIA-RDP79-01090A000 b00100 -3 Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 SECR. Such a statement.is expected to reach Washington this week. It is believed that the Chinese will not attempt to misrepresent their position by sub- mitting padded figures as the US is in a position to verify various holding accounts; also China looks to the US as the only country that might help meet the crisis. This statement will undoubtedly reveal that the National Govern- ment is hopelessly insolvent. Not only is their foreign exchange exhausted, but there are literally stacks of unpaid foreign bills for which the Govern- ment banks are responsible, and unable to meet. As the revelation of the Governmentee financial weakness reaches the Chinese public, as it surely will sooner or later, repercussions on foreign exchange notes and domestic prices are likely to have most serious conse- quencee. S e s rs t s &a AP and Reuters have ee s e by the Shanghai Newspaper Guild as the result of a long smouldering rate dispute. The US-owned "Evening Post" and the British-owned "Worth China Daily News" immediately published notices that they would defy the Guild and pay the higher rates demanded by the news agencies. About a year ago, the agencies converted their rates to Chinese currency at open market rate and at the Guild's Insistence adopted rates based on COL index. As a result of the phenomenal decline in Chinese currency and the index link the agencies are now receiving a zero US$10 monthly for large peas and as low as $3 for small papers, instead of the original charge of $200 and from $50/100 respectively. Since the Guild controls newsprint allocations to all papers Chinese publishers feel they are not in a position to defy it. There is a possibility of the low rates being enforced by the Guild in an effort to drive foreign agencies out of China. "Cs "Ca stockaoilin,m? n=oses should be a specific undertaking of the Chinese Govern?4 sent under the China Aid Act, according to State Department instructions to the Ranking Embassy. The Department had desired to incorporate such an undertaking in an amendment to the Bilateral tAgreement, but in view of strong Chinese Foreign Offices objections to this course, has now instr4acted the Embassy to obtain it in the form of an exchange of notes, and if this is not possible, the US interpretation of the agreement on this point should be presented to the Chinese Government in the form of an aide-memoire for purposes of the record. This interpretation includes "the promotion of the inoreseed production of such materials within China, and the removal of any hinderances t6 the transfer of such materials to the USA," a farom_Chiana. f A, Rre1udee t. o ( e era , t a u u p ion Q X UScri_flcis_m Jan y, e , is indicated by a double attack. from the ICUT organ CM MG YANG JIH PAO on the TA K NG PAOas editor who is accused of being a "fellow traveler, communist mouthpiece, and anti.-US." The TA KUNG PAO has been a leader in anti-US building up Japan movement. "B" Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-O'OA000500010003-3 NOO, SECT e in "C" Nanking and Shanghai is seen in a reliable report of greatly increased buying of clothes and other personal items by these persons. The Na,,,ji,QeldVt Rerports from Nanking announce that the legislative "H" Yusn has approved a CR $900 trillion budget for the last six months of 1948. Although the budget for the first half of this year was set at CR $96 trillion, the Government spent ON $240 trillion. This deficit was met primarily by printing press money. The now budget, which is based on June prices, will also end up unbalanced unless the Government can curb the inflation and reduce military costs which now amount to 80%.of al): expenditures. Although the Government hopes to meet the new budget by increasing taxes and customs revenue and disposing of Government. owned property, these measure are expected to prove grossly insufficient as in previous efforts. S ~~ ~~ ~n [ gel] n Rat) Wholesale Price of Mies DA 72 - wn" rket p+'i " o This week (23 Jul 48) CR $480,000 CR $7,300,000 000 5 00 GN $ 35,500,000 000 000 30 Week ago (16 Jul 48) (23 Jun 48) 480,000 000 480 ,8 , 2,550,000 , , 14.500e000 Month ago Year ago (23 Jul 47) , 12,000 41,000 350?000 ,;, = p_ -- - - -- Approved For Release 20 08/26 9-01090 00500016603-3 Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 V40#0 ~%W SEMET BITRrA Government may offer cabinet post to anti-insurrection Communist. UB" There are indications that Prime Minister Thakin Nu' s Leftist Unity Plan and offer of amnesty may have created some dissension within the ranks of the insurrectionary Burma Communist Party (BOP). Goshal, possibly sec aid to Than Tun in the Burmese Communist hierarchy, is reported to be willing to accept the Government' a offer,, while Than Tun favors fighting to the bitter end. Although the insurgents 0ould be weakened by any defections within the BCP, the insurrectionary-minded faction with the aid of dacoite would still be capable of carrying on prolonged guerrilla war?are, and thus continue to keep Burma in a state of turmoil. Nevertheless, it appears that Thakin Na, who has agreed to remain as Prime TTinieter at least until the Parliament convenes on 15 August, may risk an attempt to capitalize on an dissension within the BCF by offering to include an anti-insurrection Camanist in a reshuffled cabinet, TIA' LAYA Continuing disturbances reduce rubber !aorta. There may be a re- "B" duetlon in its yon rubber exports the near future as a result of the con- tinuing disturbances. Desxdte stringent precautionary measures British offi- cials fear that the violence may soon spread to Singapore and further threaten the fsalayan economy. The undiminished seriousness of the situation is indicated by: (1) the transfer to T alaya of troops from Hong Kong and the I.IK; (2) the outlawing of the 11.alayan Communist Party and several of its affiliated organi- zations; (3) the registration of all Ualayans; and (4) the promises of the. Labor Government to undertake all necessary measures to restore lair and order. FR: 10H IIDC'CIMA General Xuan admits weaknesses in his do-vernment. General Nguyen--fan- "B" Xuan, prey ent o e 1rent --sponsor provisional central government of Vietnam, apparently is aware of distinct weaknesses in his regime. He is reported to have stated, during a recent press conference, that his govern- ment cannot function properly because: (1) the 5 June Franco-Vietnamese Agreement has not yet been ratified by the French Government; (2) sufficient funds to organize the necessary government services are lacking; and (3) the resistance cannot be crushed by military means, inasmuch as the friendship of the Vietnamese would be lost even though the French might regain military control, President Xuan argued, hover, for continued confidence in both former Annamite emperor Bao Dal and French High Commissioner Bollaert in their efforts to satisfy Vietnamese aspirations and at the same time to maintain French rights and interests in Indochina. PHILIPPDfS Extensions of deadline for army surrender raise doubts as to success of amnesty.. Presiders Quin o'a ac on extending to 31 July the period of grace during which Hukbalahap and PK'I (National Peasants' Union) members may Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 Approved Forrflelease 2001/08/26 :CIA-RDP79-010qQA000500010003-3 SECRET d12-0 PHILTP1 TTTi S (continued) present their arms raises serious doubts as to the ultimate success of amnesty. c uirino acted after the Huke fal.ed to appear for scheduled mass presentations of arms at same 36 registration stations located throughout central and southern Luzon. Luis Taruc (ifuk leader and Congressman from Pampanga. Province), appears optimistic concerning eventual presentations of arms and attributes the current delay to inadequate communication, poor transportation due to the rainy season, and too much emphasis on "surrender" of vreapons. (The announced ocedure calls for legal licensing of firearms which have been registered.) On the other hands Philippine law enforcement and intelligence agencies are much less sanguine. These circles doubt the Nuke' good faith and believe that the dissidents-hoping for assistance from the T!,11, during anticipated hostilities with the'TIS-are using the period of grace to reorganize for further armed violence. There may be those among the Huk Comm-mist leadership who will refuse to accept air terms from the Government. iiovever,, available evidence suggests that the hesitancy of the rank- rnd-file Huk membership to present their arms and accept amnesty is more likely due to Government inaction on.measures to correct agrarian abuses and the Huke' fear of retaliation by private lando?ner armies-knovm as "civilian guarde"---and by the Constabulary. Unless same means is devised for overcoming this basic distrust, the Government wil.l'be forced to extend the period of grace beyond the present 31 July deadline. Australian-Chinese agreement may r esent modification of "bite Australianp . A recent Australian-Chinese agreement wh ch 8pp earn to be a m fication of the "s'Ihite Australia" policy provides that Chinese businessmen may remain in Australia for 7 years on condition that they bring a starting capital of 500 pounds with them. If they wish to employ a Chinese assistant required capital is 1000 to 2000 pounds. The assistant's period of residence is limited to five years but the agreement provides that this may be'extended for another five upon application to the Australian authorities. SECRET Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2001/08/26 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000500010003-3