WESTERN EUROPE DIVISION OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS DIVISION WEEKLY WORKING PAPER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000400050004-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 27, 1998
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: December 13, 1950
• Content Type: PAPER

--Approved For Relea 1999/09/02 : Cl
WESTERN EUROPE DIVISION
OFFIC ' OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
CENTRAL IN'PELLIGENCE AGENCY
DIVISION WEEKLY
For week ending 12 December 1950
13 December 1950
NOTICE: WORKING PAPER
This document is a working-paper, not an official
issuance, since it has not necessarily been coor-
dinated with and reviewed by other components of
0/RR... It represents the formulative thinking of
one group of analysts in O/RR and is designed to
provide the medium for transmitting their informal
views to other intelligence analysts of the US
Government who are working on similar or over-
lapping problems. It is intended for the use of
the addressee alone, and not for further dissemina-
tion.
COPY FOR :
DOCUMENT NO.
NO HANGS IN CLASS. [J
DECLASSIHED
A CHANGED TO: 13 S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
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WESTERN EUROPE DIVISION
WEEKLY SIIr ARY
Fpr week ending
12 December 1950
25X6A
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WINN-
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25X6A
The .unempPloyment problem in Austria is rapidly
reaching c !tic31 proportions and may resu in social un-
rest, political tensions and increased Communist disturbances.
Reliable estimates indicate that unemployment for the first
half of November was already 103,000 persons, 5% of the work-
in population, as compared to 69,549, 31% of the working pop-
ulation last year. This winter's seasonal peak in January
and February may well exceed by about 55,000 last year's total
of 195,000 unless emergency measures are adopted. Austria's
employment situation is characterized by immobility of workers
due to the housing shortage, ineffective training programs,
a labor supply increasing beyond the present capacity of the
economy to aasoro new job seekers, and increasing seasonal
unemployment. Even if the Austrian economy receives supple-
mental foreign aid to carry out emergency relief projects now
being planned, the situation will be relieved only temporarily.
Current trade liberalization efforts and decreasing foreign
aid will require adjustments in the economy and effective plan-
ning, however, long; range prospects for full employment are
not encouraging, and increasingly serious unemployment crises
may be expected periodically*
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SWITZERLAND
Growing pessimism as to the ability of Switzer-
land to stay out of an new world war is increasingly prompt..
hg the was to plan measures to assure the availability of
Swiss resources to the West in such an event. Until they are
actually.. attacked, however, the Swiss will probably continue
to profess their traditional neutrality. They believe that
if the Soviet Union attacks Europe their own country will be
by-passe;' initially and that no attempt will be made to invade
their territory until Soviet forces have been consolidated in
the rest of airope. They feel, therefore, that there is a
slim possibility they may once again escape Involvement in
war. Nevertheless, the Swiss have become acutely conscious
of the fact that their status of neutrality has been seriously
weakened through the disappearance of the balance of power be-
tween the principal European countries and that as a consequence
thoir traditional foreign policy is no longer a guarantee of
national security. As a result, although unwilling for the
present to ieoDardize their privileged nonition of neutrality.
the Swiss are increasingly compelled to admit in their national
planning that the survival of Switzerland is clearly identified
with the survival of the West.
Many Italians are now a rehensive lest the US be-
come so occup e in a major war with we OR'nese Communists
as to prevent it from effectively participating in the de-
fense of Western Europe. Particularly disconcerting to most
Italians has been President Truman's stag Ant regarding the
possible use of the atom bomb. They fear that the US and the
UN have been drawn into an inextricable position In the Far
East? and rope tnat the US will be restrained rrom any over-
impe tixoua action by the counsel of Western European s tatemen o
Should the fears of these Italians be realized,
Italy's will to resist agression would be further weakened
and observance of its NATO commitments would be jeopardized,
even thou;h these Italians fully aware of the present inter-
national crisis are emphasizing the need of Western Europe
to speed up its own rearmament,
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During the past year Italians have become increas-
in;ly skeptical of the ability of the US to protect Western
Europe from the USSR. Despite the Italian Government's sup-
port of US-UN action in Korea and current efforts of-the
Defense Ministry to accelerate the nation's rearmament pro-
gram, a substantial sector of the population is war-weary
and neutrality-minded. This hope of "sitting out" a clash
between the US and the USSR has been assiduously fostered by
the peace campaign of the Italian Communists and by various
nationalist groups, including a sector of the Christian Demo-
cratic Party.
The resulting neutrality sentiment might, should
the Korean campaign develop into a full-fledged conflict be-
tween the US and Corn.uni>at China, become sufficiently strong
to force the Government to rescinr`, or at least to delay
indefinitely, implementation of its pro-Western policies and
particularly its commitments under the NATO. Public pressure
might become so insistent as to result in the fall of the
Do Gasperi administration and its replacement by a govern-
ment possibly dominated by the neutrality-minded Dossetti
group, which would seek to assure Italy's non-involvement in
a global war through a temporizing policy vis-a-vis the USSR.
R E T
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