NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 14 SEPTEMBER 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000100050011-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 13, 1999
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: September 14, 1949
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Rele se 2000/04/19: CIA-RDP79-01090A0001 9050011-4
iEAI EAST/AFRVA :RAN
OFFICE OF REPtiRT"T AND ESTIM TES
CENTRAL TEI.aLICrENCE AGENCY
vWOItKING PAPER
SEP 141949
NOTICE: This document is a working paper, not
an official CIA issuance. It has been co-ordina-
ted wfiln ORE, but not with the XAC. Agencies.
It represents current thinking by specialists in
CIA, and is designed for use by others engaged
in similar or overlapping studies. The opinions
expressed herein may be revised before fl
and o:ficial publication. It is inten9ed solely
for the information of the addressee and not for
further dissemination.
DO ANT NO.
of 1T1 `!
>DECLASSI
C ASS. CHANGED
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
Approved For Release 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-01090A000100050011-4
 Approved For Release 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050011-4
*age
NEAR ,AST/AFRICA BRA Cif
l lTLLIGENCE S' .1 MMARY
For Week Ending
14 September i
TURKEY
E "
Vol. IV No. 36
Harsh words from the Burrs: Turco-Bulgarian relations, which have been
considerably less than cordial in the past, have again entered into the official
protest stage with the presentation of a Bulgarian note charging the Turks
with failure to protect the interests of the Bulgarian People s Government..
According to the note, the Turkish authorities have not only permitted
"malicious attac :s" on Bulgaria to be made in the Turkish press but have
a. .so condoned anti-Bulgarian activities or. the part of Bulgarian emigres
in Istanbul, some of whom allegedly attempted a. kidnapping within the
premises of the Bulgarian Consulate itself without a Turkish policeman's
fi rger being lifted against them. The next move in this typically Balkan
game intrigue and recrimination will doubtless be made by Ankara, which
has a ready basis for protest in a recent explosion in the Turkish Consulate
in Plovdiv. Although no Turkish lives were lost, a passing Bulgarian
woman got it slightly in the neck. The next day, moreover, one of the con-
sular officials found another bomb, the fuse of which had gone out p. ema4-urely.
The bomb was on his bedroom windowsill, just where careful marki. gs in
Bulgarian indicated it should go.
S ' NOW
Approved For Release 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050011-4
 Approved For Release 2000/04/19 :CIA-RDP79-01090A000100050011-4
NDIA - P AKISTA N
Kashmir cliff: It now appears that the UN Commission for India and
Pakistan (UNCIP) can make no further contribution toward solution of the
Kashmir dispute and must report in this sense to the Security Council.
Although termination of UNCIP's current efforts is not likely to precipitate
immediate disorders, the situation in Kashmir cannot long remain static.
Unless some means of settling the dispute Is found, hostilities will pro-
bably develop eventually. The fact that Prime Minister Nehru, having
rejected UNCIP's arbitration proposal, admits that it is now incumbent
on India to make some constructive recommendation toward a settlement
provides a slight ray of hope. Perhaps India will evolve for Pakistan's
consideration a new formula providing for joint mediation or arbitration
of the three principal disputes between the two dominions --Kashmir,
refugee property, and water rights; or perhaps during Nehru's forthcoming
visit to the US some arrangement permitting a possible settlement may be
suggested.
NOTED IN BRIEF
Recent admissions by Greek Cabinet members that the government had con-
sidered sending troops into Albania to neutralize Greek guerrilla bases
there are probably designed to warn Albania against further aid to the goer -
rillas, and to alert the UN to the dangers arising from the border problem.
While immediate Greek Army action against Albania is thus not likely,
the Greek Government may, however, find itself politically unable to check
strong public and military pressure for such a move should Albania again
provoke Greece by promoting guerrilla aggression and should the UN fail to
find an effective way to stop further aid.
Approved For Release 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050011-4
 Approved For Relase 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-01090A000050011-4
IWO" no
4~ 11
PPostoonement of the Greek municipal elections previously set for the end
of October is attribtita le t6 caution r e'.er t an to any unfavorable develop-
ment in the Greek situation. Besides wanting to make sure that the guerrilla
movement will really be quelled befoi a the balloting, the Greek Government
is most anxious to avoid any domestic incidents--such as possible electoral
disturbances--What might divert the attention of the UNGA during its coming
discussion ct the Greek question. There continues to be a general desire to
hold not only municipal but also Parliamentary elections no later than the
spring of 1950, despite some Liberal hints that the plurality Populist
Party is reluctant to test its strength at the polls.
n Palesune, as not it eppy va- .
t instances
ce Commissions has been pointed up by two recen
Approved For Release 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050011-4
The cancellation ct a s -promise to exchange wheat for Turkish live -
stock has been accepted with good by the Turks, who are now waiting
for the political dust to settle in Syria with the firm hope that Zaim's
successors will also decide on a policy of close friendship with Turkey.
Tr..mise of a snore compact and better-trained and ee uui pied Turkish
Army, for which the US military mission has been working for two years,
Of. soon be brought one stage nearer fulfilment. Three army corps and
six infantry divisions will be inactivated, thus releasing manpower and
equipment for use in strengthening other units.
Political recriminations have been marceidlyabsent in Turkey of late, with
the opposition. more or less automatically hurling the same old charges at
the government and government spokesmen replying with seemingly equal
absent-mindedness. By-elections much, month,
and thehnathe aiorppolitical will
not contest, will not liven up matters
will not be joined until the Assembly reconvenes in November.
The life of Riley, the US Marine general who heads UN armistice super
h The weakness of the various
 Approved For ReleasL 000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA00010I> 0011-4
Reco nition of the new Syrian Government by the major powers, Saudi Arabia,
and Egypt still hangs in abeyance, to the discomfiture of the Syrians. This
far the great powers have waited for some clarification of attitude by the two
Arab states, which have been reluctant to move because of uncertainty about
Syria's intentions in regard to Hashimite ties. The UK, however, now feels
that the major powers should grant recognition in the very near future, in
order to help stabilize the new regime, facilitate the activities of the Economic
Survey Mission, and define Syria's position in the forthcoming meeting of the
GA. The French are in general accord with the British.
25X6A
The current outbreak of gurdire and rotest aloa ? the Yemen-. den bvrde~?
reflects a typical state of affairs along that mountainous and ill-defined
frontier and should not be taken too seriously. Recently the Sharif of
Beihan, a member of the Aden Protectorate, built himself a custom-house
on one side of the nebulous line in order to exact duty from Yemeni
Approved For Release 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050011-4
 Approved For ReleeCse 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-01090A00T100050011-4
traders-, Yemeni tribes retaliated by erecting a fort nearby, and inevitably
some gunplay ensued. When the RAF entered the fray by strafing the Yemeni
fort, the Imam,jea-loos of~ls honor, UN Gh afaconstrabied to demand. r by attacking a fellow ea~e~nber-
accusing the UK of violating the
nation. Despite his protests, however ,the Imam is probably quite content
ib
es,
to see order restored among the troublesome tr
Ire leaders fear that the Soviets ll reap a propaganda harvest if
negotiations now under way for the purchase of 100,000 tons of wheat
are consummated and streams of Soviet wheat pour into northern Iran-
especially into Azerbaijan, where the Shah now admits conditions are
"terrible." Despite these misgivings, the Iranian Government, which
lost many months attempting to negotiate credit and barter deals with the
US, feels that it must now obtain wheat wherever it can get quickest
delivery. if the deal goes through, the USSR will undoubtedly attempt to
discredit both the Iranian Government and the US by claiming that the
Soviets stepped in to save Iranians from starvation.
India in ree ctin g e UliCIP osal that disputed questions pertaining
to the Kashmir truce be arbitrated, nta ins that the main point at issue
regarding the truce--disbandment of the Mad forces--has already been
decided on the basis of conversations between Prime Minister Nehru and the
Colombian delegate on IJNCII1. Discussion before the SC will presumably
attempt to resolve this point, which appears to rest upon personal and
unauthorized statements by the Colombian.
In order to encourage American investment in F'r'ench overseas territorigs,
principally in Africa, a joint France-American Banking Corporation has
been proposed, largely on the initiative of US interests. The organiza-
tion would be comprised of representative of 7 French banks and 5 American
banks, the former supplying 52% of the capital and 59% of the members of the
board of directors. The Corporation would have only a nominal capital; its
main function would be to advise, channel, and coordinate investment pro-
jects which the individual banks or other business interests might desire
Approved For Release 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050011-4
 Approved For Rel se 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-01090A00f 0050011-4
to make in these underdeveloped areas. The French Government has already
tentatively agreed to the proposal and will permit investment funds to be with-
drawn fron French territories in the currency of origin. The operation of the
proposed corporation, by stimulation of capital investment, should result in
increased production of and exports to the US cii strategic materials from
French Africa.
Approved For Release 2000/04/19 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050011-4