USSR: CURRENT STATUS OF 1977 GRAIN CROP

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01056A000100180001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 27, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 27, 1977
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100180001-9
Secret
USSR-Current Status of 1977
Grain Crop
Secret
GC AB 77-002
27 May 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100180001-9
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Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100180001-9
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100180001-9
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NOFORN
USSR: Current Status of the 1977 Grain Crop
Summary
1, Soviet winter grain production is expected to be well above the
record 631/2 million tons harvested in 1973. Normally winter grains
account for about 30 percent of the total Soviet grain production.
2. Winterkill losses have been lower than normal with most of the
significant damage occurring in parts of the Non-Chernozem Zone and
North Caucasus.
3. Conditions for sprouting and early development of spring grain
also appear favorable. However, with at least one-fifth of the spring
grains remaining to be sown, it is too early to estimate the size of the
total harvest.
Note: This paper was produced by the Office of Geographic and Cartographic
Research and coordinated with the Office of Economic Research. Comments and
questions may he directed to Code 143, Extension
3748. Date of information 25 May
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NOFORN
USSR: Current Status of the 1977 Grain Crop
Summary
1. Soviet winter grain production is expected to be well above the
record 631/2 million tons harvested in 1973. Normally winter grains
account for about 30 percent of the total Soviet grain production.
2. Winterkill losses have been lower than normal with most of the
significant damage occurring in parts of the Non-Chernozem Zone and
North Caucasus.
3. Conditions for sprouting and early development of spring grain
also appear favorable. However, with at least one-fifth of the spring
grains remaining to be sown, it is too early to estimate the size of the
total harvest.
Note: This paper was produced by the Office of Geographic and Cartographic
Research and coordinated with the Office of Econo-nic Research. Comments and
questions may be directed to Code 143, Extension 25X1A
3748. Date of information 25 May 1977.
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Landsat II Imagery, Spring 1976, UKRAINE
Low infrared reflectance (IR) indicates lack of vegetative vigor in 1976 winter
grains. Most of these crops were winterkilled.
Landsat II Imagery, Spring 1977, UKRAINE
Good IR-return over the same area this year indicates excellent plant vigor in
the winter grains.
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1. Status of Winter Grains
As of late Max' prospects appear excellent for a bumper 1977 Soviet winter grain
crop. Final production is expected to be well above the previous record of 63 t/z
million tons and could reach 70 million tons. However, unusually wet growing
conditions throughout much of European USSR have promoted instances of plant
diseases such as downy mildew and weed infestation that will probably prevent the
higher end of this range.
Winter grains, mostly wheat and rye, were sown last fall on 381//2 million
hectares, the largest area since 1968, and one million hectares greater than in 1976
(sec table). Most of the expanded acreage appears to have been winter wheat,
particularly in the ttkrainc where it was sown on over 10 million hectares. Larger
areas of winter wheat were also reported in Moldavia, Belorussia and the North
(:aucasus (see map).
t)eveloptnent of the winter grains has been near normal during the spring with
heading now taking place in most oblasts of the Ukraine and North Caucasus. Some
harvesting of winter grains, mostly barley. is now occurring in both Southern
Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
II. Winterkill
Most of the winter grains went into dormancy in very good condition with
favorable plant development and high soil moisture reserves. As a result, winter losses
are not expected to exceed 10 percent.' Normal winter grain losses in the USSR
average about 15 to 20 percent.
Most of the significant damage occurred last October in parts of the Non-
Chernozerm Zone and North Caucasus when temperatures dropped as low as minus
' The (i.i million hectare, that appears in the table as 197 xvinterkill includes approximately 3 million
hectares of unripened grain harvested as ''green chop' for feeding livestock.
USSR: Winter Grain Data
Area Sown
Area
Harvested
Winterkill
1968
40.2
32.8
7.4
1969
37.7
24.5
13.2
1970
37.2
29.8
7.4
1971
36.1
31.5
4.6
1972
34.9
24.4
10.5
1973
28.4
26.9
1.5
1974
37.0
29.8
7.2
1975
35.5
29.2
6.3
1976
37.5
27.4
10.1
1977
38.5
31.7
6.8
' State and collectiee farms as well as prix ate holdings and other
State enterprises,
Includes acreage intended for green chop in the spring.
t'.stiniated totals.
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USSR: Major Spring and Winter Grain Area
Volga-
yatka
Spring and winter grains Spring grains
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12?C. At this early stage of germination, and without protective snow cover, most of
the fall-sown grains had not yet developed a sufficient hardiness to withstand the low
temperature. Improved conditions later that month permitted some reseeding in the
North Caucasus; however, imagery taken this spring showed substantial winter-killing
on both the original and replanted seedings. Nevertheless, further reseeding with
lower-yielding spring grains should partially offset most of the winter losses.
Some low temperatures in early January affected winter crops in the Ukraine but
damage was apparently very light (see imagery).
III. Status of the Spring Grains
It is still too early to predict spring grain production; however, the outlook for
spring grains at this time is not as favorable as the winter grain crop. Spring grain
sowing which had picked up in early May has now started to fall slightly behind. By
23 May grain and pulse crops (excluding corn) have been seeded on about 80 million
hectares, somewhat lower than the average in recent years.
Much of this delay is probably the result of sharply restricted fall-plowing,
especially in the Non-Chernozem Zone. If the delay persists spring crop yields could
be lower in the affected regions.
Because of this year's large area of surviving winter grains, spring barley, the
normal replacement crop for winterkilled grains, will not be planted as extensively as
it was in 1976. Tending to confirm this was the Ukraine spring barley plan of 2.5
million hectares, its lowest since 1973.
One potential problem that currently exists in the spring grain region is a subsoil
moisture deficiency in both the southern Urals and parts of Kazakhstan. As a result,
yields in these areas will largely depend on rainfall from now through July. Spring
grains east of the Volga are grown primarily in low moisture areas and moisture
deficiency is the major factor limiting yields.
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