USSR: STATUS OF THE 1976/77 WINTER GRAINS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01056A000100170001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 27, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 31, 1977
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100170001-0
Secret
NOFORN
USSR Status of the 1976/77
Winter Grains
Secret
GC AB 77-001
31 January 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100170001-0
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100170001-0
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
NOFORN- Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
NOCONTRACT- Not Releasable to Contractors or
Contractor/ Consultants
PROPIN- Caution-Proprietary Information Involved
NFIBONLY- NFIB Departments Only
ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information
Controlled by Originator
REL This Information has been Authorized for
Release to .. .
Classified by 019641
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
?5B(1), (2) and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
date impossible to determine
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SECRET
Environment Analysis Brief
USSR-Status of the 1976/77 Winter Grains
Summary
1. USSR winter grains have been sown on about 381/2 million
hectares, the largest area since 1968 and one million hectares greater
than last year.
2. Most of the fall-sown grains entered dormancy with good to
excellent soil moisture reserves.
3. Adequate snow cover over most of European USSR has kept
winterkill losses well below the annual average of 15-20%.
Crop Status
As of late January crop prospects remain excellent for the 1977
Soviet winter grains. In contrast to the fall of 1975, this year's winter
crops went into dormancy in very good condition with favorable plant
development and high soil moisture reserves. LANDSAT imagery
taken last fall over the southern Ukraine corroborates good soil mois-
ture reserves as reflected in the improved crop vigor levels (see images).
Note: This paper was produced by the Office of Geographic and Carto-
graphic Research and coordinated with the Office of Economic Research. Com-
ments and questions may be directed to Code
143, Extension 3748. Date of information anuary
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Image A: Landsat II Imagery, Fall 1975, Zaporozh'ye Oblast
Lack of vivid infrared reflectance (IR) from non-irrigated area indicates
low plant vigor of winter crops.
Image B: Landsat II Imagery, Fall 1976, Zaporozh'ye Oblast
Improved crop vigor one year later. Irrigated and non-irrigated crops have
equally good IR-return.
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USSR: Estimated Winter Kill Through January 1977
Limit of major
winter grains
Nevertheless, the winter has not been problem-free. During the
first week of January winterkill damage occurred in parts of the cen-
tral and eastern Ukraine as well as in the North Caucasus (see map).
Since most of this area was not affected for more than two to four
days losses are expected to be minor.' So far, winterkill estimates have
reduced potential production about 2 million tons (less than 4 percent)
out of an area with a potential yield of over 60 million tons. However,
the full extent of this year's winterkill will likely be determined by
melting and refreezing cycles which frequently occur in February and
March. Normal winter losses are 16 percent and range as high as 30
percent.
Winter grain sowing was expanded in the fall of 1976 to cover
38.5 million hectares, the largest area since 1968 and one million hec-
' Winterkill criteria:
Temperatures of -20?C and below in combination with little or no snow cover
(3 cm or less).
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tares greater than last year.' Soviet planners had hoped for an area
as great as 40 million hectares but a cold snap in the Ukraine in mid-
October with early snowfall probably prevented increased sowings.
Winter grains (wheat, rye, barley) are higher yielding than spring
varieties and generally account for about 1/3 of total grain production.
Outlook
Although prospects for the 1977 winter grain crop are excellent
the final outcome will, in large part, depend on weather between the
end of dormancy (April) and spring (May-June). Unusually high soil
moisture reserves should effectively carry over into spring, providing
a good basis for crop development, spring planting and-if necessary-
reseeding.
2 State and collective farms were officially announced as 36.9 million hec-
tares while private holdings and other state enterprises are estimated at about
1.6 million hectares.
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