USSR: EARLY APRIL CROP CONDITIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01056A000100100001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 12, 1976
• Content Type: BRIEF

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Secret
NOFORN
USSR: Early April Crop Conditions
Secret
GC AB 76-002
12 April 1976
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 019641
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
?58(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
date impossible to determine
The Environment Analysis Staff (EAS) of the Office of Geographic and Cartographic
Research is responsible for forecasting Soviet grain production. The EAS staff will publish
regular crop assessments and estimates. All estimates are derived in accordance with agronomic
principles emphasizing convergence of evidence.
The methodology employed uses crop modeling as the basic framework and includes
data from imagery, collateral, and weather analysis. A forthcoming report will give a more
complete and detailed description of the methods employed in producing this series of Briefs.
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Environment Analysis Brief
USSR: Early April Crop Conditions
Summary
Crop conditions in the USSR's winter grain area have been gen-
erally favorable during the past six weeks. Problems at planting last
fall and winterkill during a cold snap in mid-February have probably
destroyed more than the normal 15 to 20 percent of the winter crop.
It is still too early, however, to determine the full extent of this year's
winterkill.
Despite below-normal precipitation during March in much of the
spring grain area, moisture reserves have improved markedly since
last fall and are sufficient for spring planting.
NOTE: This paper was produced by the Office of Geographic and Car-
tographic Research and coordinated with the Office of Economic Research.
Comments and questions may be directed to Code 143, Exten-
sion 3748. Date of information 9 April 1976.
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Winter Grains
Conditions in the winter grain area during March generally re-
turned to normal after a cold, dry February. Belorussia and the western
Ukraine received about 21/2 times the normal amount of precipitation
in the first part of March. A high pressure system which dominated
the weather during much of the month weakened by the end of March
and allowed the precipitation pattern to shift eastward into the central
Ukraine and southern Volga valley.
Despite the improved weather during March, the area of winter
grain lost to winterkill will probably amount to more than one-fifth
of the 371/2 million hectares sown last fall." Although a Soviet official
informally commented in late March that from two to six million
hectares of winter grains, possibly more, might require replanting,
his estimate appears conservative. Press reports from Kherson oblast
in the southern Ukraine indicated that the spring acreage there would
be trebled, the result of ". . . resowing of winter crops."
Conditions in some areas have delayed field operations by one
to two weeks. Necessary resowing and supplementary seeding of
winter grain areas to spring grains should be carried out as early as
possible to allow the plants to develop under optimum conditions. A
lack of color reflectance in mid-March LANDSAT imagery indicates
the low vegetative vigor of winter grain in the southern Ukraine
compared to the same area in 1975 (images 1 and 2). This lack of
vigor for the most part reflects the lag in crop development compared
to the unusually early spring last year.
`For a more complete discussion of the effect of last fall's dryness and the
cold temperatures in mid-February on winter grains, see GC AB 76-001, Prospects
for Soviet Winter Grain, 3 March 1976.
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Spring Grains
Conditions in most of the spring grain area* have improved
markedly since last fall. The high pressure system that dominated
most of March kept precipitation and temperatures in most of this
area below average. Moisture reserves remain below normal in the
Volga valley and Urals region, areas hard hit by last year's drought.
As of 1 April, however, soil moisture conditions are sufficient for the
sowing and germination of spring grains (see map).
*Most of the spring and summer grains are grown east of the Volga valley
and well south of 60? latitude. They account for approximately three-fourths
of the sown grain area and about two-thirds of total grain production. Barley,
wheat, and oats are the major spring grains. In 1975, barley accounted for 36
percent of spring grain production, wheat 32 percent, and oats 15 percent.
Summer grains, including corn, accounted for another 15 percent of spring grain
output, the pulses were 6 percent.
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Landsat Image I Mid-March 1975 Kherson-Crimea
Area of Photography O
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Landsat Image 11 Mid-March 1976 Kherson-Crimea
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USSR: Soil Moisture as of 1 April 1976
Odessa MOSCOW*
Spring and Winter Grains
*Voronezh
?Kustanay
Spring Grains ?O,
High soil moisture; 200 mm in top meter of soil
Intermediate soil moisture; 100 to 199 mm in top meter of soil
Low soil moisture, less than 100 mm in top meter of soil
All grain boundary
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Secret
Secret
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