MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 195-75. 4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010097-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 29
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2001
• Sequence Number: 97
• Publication Date: December 19, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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__MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 195-75.Y
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1. LEBANON: ARMED CLASHES IN THE BEIRUT SUBURBS AND IN THE
TRIPOLI-ZAGHARTA AREA CONTINUE AND THREATEN TO DRAW THE LARGE
CHRISTIAN AND MUSLIM MILITIAS INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF SUSTAINED
FIGHTING.M
LEBANESE SECURITY FORCES HAVE FAILED TO CONTAIN CLASE1E-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL INVOLVING CHRISTIANS ALLIED WITH
INTERIOR MINISTER SHAMUN AND MUSLIMS ALLIED WITH PROGRESSIVE
SOCIALIST PARTY LEADER KAMAL JUMBLATT. TROUBLE IN THIS AREA
BEGAN EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN CHRISTIANS ATTACKED THE MUSLIM
VILLAGE OF SIBNAY IN AN ATTEMPT TO ROUT OUT SNIPERS FIRING
ON NEARBY CHRISTIAN COMMUNITIES. FIGHTING BETWEEN MUSLIM AND
CHRISTIAN FACTIONS IN TRIPOLI ON THURSDAY REPORTEDLY INVOLVED
TANKS AND ARMORED VEHICLES TAKEN FROM THE LEPANESE SECURITY FORCES?Y
4 ALTHOUGH THE CEASE-FIRE IS STILL HOLDING IN THE CENTRAL
3 PART OF BEIRUT AND IN THE HOTEL DISTRICT, TENSIONS ELSEWHERE
2 COULD PROMPT CHRISTIAN PHALANGISTS AND RADICAL LEFTISTS HEADED
L BY IBRAHIM QULAYLAT TO RESUME THEIR BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE
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__SEAFRONT AREA. EARLIER THIS WEEK, THE TWO SIDES TURNED OVER THEIR
RESPECTIVE STRONGHOLDS TO THE SECURITY FORCES, IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE PROVISIONS OF THE CEASE-FIRE. NEVERTHELESS, BOTH
FACTIONS STILL HAVE ARMED MEN IN THE AREA AND COULD EASILY
RETAKE THEIR POSITIONS.M
PRESIDENT FRANJIYAH'S DENUNCIATION OF THE PALESTINIANS
IN A CABINET MEETING WFDNESDAY HAS ALMOST CERTAINLY ADDED TO
,THE TENSIONS. FRANJIYAH ACCUSED THE PALESTINIANS OF BREAKING
THEIR AGREEMENT TO STAY OUT OF LEBANON?'S INTERNAL POLITICS
AND OF FAVORING "ONE SIDE OVER ANOTHER.vY
FRANJIYAH'S REMARKS BEFORE THE CABINET DREW A SHARP
REBUTTAL FROM PRIME 1INISTER KARAMI, WHO PRAISED THE PALESTINIANS
FOR THEIR COOPERATION IN ARRANGING THE LATEST CEASE-FIRE. ANOTHER'
OPEN RIFT BETWEEN THE MUSLIM PRIME MINISTER AND THE CHRISTIAN
4 PRESIDENT WOULD SERIOUSLY JEOPARDIZE THE CURRENT TRUCE AND WOULD
3 ALMOST CERTAINLY PREVENT ANY PROGRESS TOWARD A POLITICAL
2 SOLUTION.Y
THE DETERIORATING SITUATION IN BEIRUT HAS PROMPTED A CALL
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FROM ARAB LEAGUE SECRETARY GENERAL MAHMUD RIYAD FOR ANOTHER
SPECIAL CONFERENCE OF ARAB STATES. AN EARLIER ARAB
LEAGUE MEETING ON LEBANON, HASTILY CONVENED IN OCTOBER, WAS BOYCOTTED L-LY
SYRIA AND PALESTINIAN REPRESENTATIVES. THIS LATEST CALL
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APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SPONSORED BY EGYPT. {CONFIDENTIAL}Y
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3. INDIA: PRIME MINISTER GANDHI IS CONSIDERING ESTABLISHMENT OF
7 A PRESIDENTIAL FORM OF GOVERNMENT IN INDIA. SHE IS ALSO WEIGHING
2. CHANGES THAT ARE LESS RADICAL BUT WOULD WEAKEN THE 4.9ILITY OF THE
1 COURTS TO OMNI CHALLENGE GOVERNMENT ACTIONS?M
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IF SHE DECIDES IN FAVOR OF A PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM, GANDHI
WILL HAVE HER CONGRESS PARTY'S HEAVY MAJORITY IN PARLIIIENT ENACT THE
NECESSARY CONSITUTIONAL CHANGES WHEN IT CONVENES NEXT MONTH. SHE
MIGHT WELL HAVE PARLIAMENT CONVERT ITSELF INTO A CONSTITUENT ASSLI113LY
FOR THIS PURPOSE. GANDHI, OF COURSE, WOULD ASSUME THE PRESIDENCY
HERSELF. SHE MIGHT THEN CAL!_ NEW LEGISLATIVE ELECHTIONS---ANI) PERHAPS
A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION--IN ORDER TO OBTAIN THE PUBLIC'S STAMP OF
APPROVAL.Y
GANDHI MIGHT DECIDE IN FAVOR OF REVAMPING THE CONSTITUTION IN A
WAY THAT WOULD LEAVE THE PRESENT SYSTEM INTACT BUT WOULD WEAKEN THE
JUDICIARY. STATHEMENTS EARLIER THIS MONTH BY GANDHI AND BY MINISTER
OF LAW GOKHALE SEEMED TO POINT TO CHANGES ALONG THESE LINES.'
THE JUDICIARY IS THE ONLY INSTITUTION STILL ABLE TO IMPEDE
GOVERNMENTIN ACTIONS UNDER THE STATE OF EMERGENCY THAT HAS BEEN IN
4 FORCE SINCE LAST JUNE. IN RECENT WEEKS, FOR EXAMPLE, VARIOUS COURTS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO CHALLENGE THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE GOVERNEMINENT CAN
SUSPEND CIVIL LIBERTIES OF HAVE PARLIAMENT ENACT CONSTITUTIONAL
I AMENDMENTS. {CONIFIDENTIAL}Y
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_4. MOZAMBIQUE: LOYAL FORCES AND DISSIDENT TROOPS HAVE CLASHED FOR THE SE
SECOND NIGHT IN LOURENCO MARQUES-Y
INFORMATION ON THE DISORDERS IS SKETCHY. ACCORDING TO SOUTH
AFRICAN PRESS REPORTS, THE FIGHTING STARTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN ABOUT 400 DISSIDENT TROOPS AND POLICE MUTINIED AND ATTACKED
KEY INSTALLATIONS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CITY. GOVERNMENT
FORCES WERE REPORTED TO HAVE RESTORED ORDER BY THURSDAY, BUT FIGHTING,
HAS RESUMED AND APPARENTLY SPREAD TO SLUMS ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE 111I RM
CITY - M
THE DISSIDENTS REPORTEDLY WERE REACTING AGAINST A CRACKDOWN ORDERED
LAST WEEKEND BY PRESIDENT SAMORA MACHEL ON CORRUPTION AND POLITICAL
AGITATION IN THE POLICE AND THE ARMY?Y
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO PREVIOUS OVERT SIGNS OF OPPOSITION
TO THE GOVERNMENT FROM WITHIN THE MILITARY OR POLICE, SOME DISCONTENT
4 WITH THE REGIMES TIGHT CONTROL OVER SOCIETY AND WITH THE DECLINING
?
3 ECONOMY HAS SURFACED SINCE MOZAMBIQUE BECAME INDEPENDENT LAST JUNE.
IN OCTOBER, WORKERS DISSATISFIED WITH HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT STAGED A
I BRIEF RIOT IN THE PORT CITY OF BEIRA. {CONFIDENTIAL} E-2, IMPDET-rI
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WESTERN t4EMISP4ERE 9RIEF 145975-Y
1? CUEA: T4E CUBAN COMMUNIST PARTY?S FIRST CONGRESS 4AS
PRODUCED NO SURPRISES SO FAR ?Y
PARTY SECOND SECRETARY RAUL CASTRO DELIVERED THE OPENING ADDRESS;
ON DECEMBER 17 RUT DID LITTLE MORE THAN SET THE STATE FOR THE READING
OF THE LENGTHY PLAIN REPORT GY HIS UROT-$ER , FIRST SECRETARY FIDEL
CASTRO. FIDEL BEGAN THE READI1G 04 DECEISER 17 (IN THE MORNING}
AND FINISHED AT Al OUT NOON ON DECEMBER 16-Y
SO FARE NO NEW TRENDS IN CUBAN POLICIES HAVE EMERGED. CASTRO
IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER THE CLOS14G ADDRESS ON DECEMBER 22v AT WHICH
TIME HE MAY TELL THE CU9AN PEOPLE ABOUT HAVANA'S CONSIDERABLE INVOLVE-
MCNT IA ANGOLA. CCOiIFIPENTIAL}Y
24/CHILE: THE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS PRCPARIPD TO
ABANDON ITS TACIT TRUCE WITH THE PINOCHET GOVERNMENT. THE PARTY'S
LEADER, FOR4ER PRESIDE4T EDUARDO PREI+ GILL SHORTLY DISTRIBUTE A
POLITICAL PAMPHLET ATTACKING TIE 6GVERNMENT.//M
//WHAT THE ANTICIPATED -FREI BLAST MILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DO IS TO
REINFORCE THE EXISTING "SIEGE" MENTALITY AND STRENGTHEN PRESIDENT
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SECRET PiOFORN
PINOC4 T'S DETERMINATION TO ENFORCE THE t1ORATORI'JM ON POLITICS
VIGOROJSLY? IF PINOCHET RESPONDS TRUE TO FORtt, HZ IS LIKELY TO
ENGENDER WIDESPREAD CRITICISPI FROM THE US AHD WESTERU EUROPE, WHERE
FREI IS HIGHLY REGARDED.//Y
//FREI+ WHOSE PARTY WAS DECLARED 11 "RECESS" AFTER TIE COUP IN
SEPTEMPER 3.973, HAS REFRAINED FROM OPEN POLEMICS IPA ORDER TO AVU D
PROSCRIPTIO'd Of THE PARTY AND HIS OUN EXPULSIONS FROPI THE COUNTRY.
THE PRINCIPAL MOTIVATIOt:. BEHIND FREI' S DECISION TO SPEAK OUT NOW IS
HIS GROWING FEAR THAT THE GOVERNMENT MAY INDEED SUCCEED IN DESTROY-
ING THE PARTY ALTOGETHER. FREI WAS ALSO STUNG 2Y THE RECENT DAVE
OF PUBLICITY ON REPORTS OF CIA SUPPORT FOR PAST CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC
ELECTORAL CAMPAIGNS--A BLOW TO HIS PRESTIGE THAT PROE3AELY COMPELLED
HIM TO ABA; DOY A PASSIVE STAN? AND RISK A CLASH UITH THE REGIME.//M
//FREI AND HIS COLLEAGUES ALSO APPEAR TO BELIEVE THAT PIROCHET'S
TROUBLES ARE POUt4TINNG? THEY CITE THE STAGNATING ECOYOMY., THE RCGI-IE'S
WORSENING RELATIONS WITh; THE CATHOLIC CHURCH, PINOCr:ET'S PRQE2LCMS
UITH SOnE OF ASS FELLOW JUNTA MEMBERS, AND THE BAD LIGHT IN WHICH THE
CHRISTIAN DEPIOCRATS THINK CHILE IS HELD ABROAD. WHATEVER FOUNDATIOn
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IN FACT THERE IS FOR THESE VIEtdS, THE CHRISTIAN] DEMOCRATS APPEAR TO
HAVE CONCLUDED THAT f REI HAS MORE TO GAIN BY CHALLENGING THE GOVE1 -
MEP1T THAN 9Y LETTING HIS PARTY CONTINUE TO ATROPHY. WHAT FREI AND
1IS COLLEAGUES PROBASLY HOPE FOR ULTIMATELY IS TO INDUCE PINOCHET'S
MILITARY CRITICS TO OUST HIM AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE GOVERNMENT THAT
WOULD SEEK COOPERATION FRO" THE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS AND A RETURN TO
DEMOCRATIC FORMS.//Y
//THERE ARE DISCERNIBLE DIFF=ERENCES WITHIN THE MILITARY OVER
PIUOCHET'S STYLE AND PHIS TENDENCY TO ACT UNILATERALLY WIT11OUT
CONSULTING THE JUNTA. WE SEE NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST.-HOWEVER, THAT
ANYONE HAS SUFFICIENT SUPPORT TO CHALLENGE HIM AT THIS TIME. IUDEEP
MOST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE ARMED SERVICES ARE UNITED BEf1IND
PINOCtiET AND ARE WILLING TO ENDURE THE HIGH COST OF iiRAT T$EY.SEE AS
NECESSARY SACRIFICES TO RESTORE THE CHILEAN ECOHOi1Y AND PUT THE
COUNTRY ON A PERIAHENT ANTI-MARXIST FOOTING.//Y
//TUUE PRESIDENT HAS THE OPTION OF SIDESTEPPING THE ISSUE- If
PINOCHET MOVES AGAINST CHILE'S LARGEST DEMOCRATIC PARTY. HOWEVER,
THE COUNTRY'S ISOLATION ON THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE WILL DEEPEN,
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MAKING ITS ECONOMIC RECOVERY EVEN MORE DOUBTFUL. IN THIS EVENT,
PINOCHET MAY BE LAYING THE GROUNDI ORK FOR SERIOUS DISCINTENT UITH
HIS LEA DERSg1IP--Will CH OVER THE LONG RUN COULD SET IN MOTION A CHAIN
OF EVENTS TdAT MIGHT ENCOURAGE INTERNATIONAL MILITARY OPPOSITION
AUD THREATEN HIS POSITION. {SECRET WOFORN}//Y
3. //ARGENTINA: A REBELLION ON IbECEM.,.fER 18 BY AIR FORCE OFFICERS
HAS REPORTEDLY RESULTED IN THE REPLACEMENT OF THE AIR FORCE
COMMANDER IN CHIEF, GENERAL FAUTARIO? HE HAS DCE,V SUCCEEDED RY
GEkERAL ORLANDO RAtMON AGOSTI, REPORTEDLY A STAUNCH ANTI-PERONIST.//Y
//THE OFFICERS, LED BY GENERAL ORLANDO CAPPELLINI% SEIZED
FAUTARIO AND OT!IERS AND HELD THEM FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE REBELLIOUS
OFFICERS SAID THEIR ACTION WAS MOTIVATED BY DISSATISFACTION OVER
RECENT "ARBITRARY" PROMOTIONS AND TRANSFERS. FAUTARIO HAS NEVER
BEEN PARTICULARLY POPULAR AMONG HIS SUBORDINATESS MOREOVER, SOME WHO
CONSIDERED HIM TOO PRO-PERONIST MAY HAVE THOUGHT THIS AN IDEAL
OPPORTUNITY TO JOIN IN AN EFFORT AGAINST HIM-//V
//CAPPELINI'S MOVE WAS PROBABLY PART OF A RUNNING FEUD HE HAD
HAD WITH HIS COMMANDER. FAUTARIO REPORTEDLY HAD LEARNED THAT
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CAPPELLINI WAS IPl"JOLVED IN COUP PLOTTING AND TRIED TO FORCE HIM TO
RETIRE OR ACCEPT AN UIJDESIRABLY OVERSEIS ASSIGNMEUT?//V
//IN AN EFFORT TO JUSTIFY AND GAIN SUPPORT FOR THEIR EFFORT.
T}1E REBELLIOUS OFFICERS ISSUED COMMUNIOUESUURGING OTHER MILITARY
SERVXDES TO JOIN THEM IN SEEKING A "NEW CHRISTIAN MORALITY" INSTEAD
OP A DISCREDITED NATIONAL LEADERSHIP. WE HAVE' SEEN NO SIGN THAT NAVY
OR ARMY OFFICERS RESPONDED IN ANY WAY.//Y
//THE REPELLIOUS OFFICERS APPARENTLY PLANNED THEIR MOVE TO
COINCIDE UITH THE ABSENCE FROM THE COUNTRY Of THE ARMY COMMANDER IN
CHIEF, GENERAL VIDELA. WHO IS SAID TO OPPOSE A MILITARY MOVE AGAINST
THE GOVERNMENT AT THIS TIME. THEY HOPEDTAHAT WITH VIDELA GONE, THEY
COULD PERSUADE THE OTHER SERVICES TO SACK--OR AT LEAST NOT OPPOSE--
THEIR EPPORT.//M
//IF THE NEW COMMANDER IS INDEED ANTI-PERONIST+ HIS ACCESSION
MAY SPEED THE DAY WHEN THE THREE ARMED SERVICES CAN AGREE Q4 A MEANS
TO OUST THE DISCREDITED REGIME. (SECRET NOfORN}// E-2 IMPDET-0
DECEMBER 14, 1975
OCI/VHD
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EAST ASIA BRIEF 1195-75. Y
1. SOUTH KOREA: THE REMOVAL OF PRIME MINISTER KIM CHONG-
PIL IN A CABINET RESHUFFLE ON FRIDAY ELIMINATES A MAJOR POLITICAL
FIGURE WHO PRESIDENT PAK MAY REGARD AS A POTENTIAL RIVAL.
ONE OF THE FEW POLITICIANS LEFT IN SOUTH 1111 KOREA WITH SUB-
STANTIAL INDEPENDENT STATURE AND POPULARITY, KIM HAD BEEN PRIME
MINISTER SINCE 1971. KIM CITED POOR HEALTH AS HIS REASON FOR
STEPPING DOWN, BUT THE MOVE WAS OBVIOUSLY ORDERED BY PAK. AL-
THOUGH HE WAS THE CHIEF ARCHITECT OF THE 1961 COUP THAT PUT PAK
IN POWER, AND HAS BEEN A FAITHFUL EXECUTOR OF PAK'S POLICIES,
KIM APPARENTLY REGARDED HIMSELF AS A LOGICAL PRESIDENTIAL SUC-
CESSOR.
KIM WAS REPLACED BY CHOE KYU-HA, WHO HAS BEEN PAK'S SPECIAL
ASSISTANT FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS. UNLIKE KIM, CHOE HAS NO INDEPENDENT
STATURE. NINE OTHER CABINET MINISTERS, INCLUDING THE FOREIGN
MINISTER, WERE REPLACED. MOST OF THE NEW MINISTERS, WITH THE EX-
CEPTION OF THE UNIMPRESSIVE CHOE, APPEAR TO BE TECHNICALLY PRO-
FICIENT, AND NONE ARE IMPORTANT POLIUITICAL FIGURES IN THEIR OWN
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THE CABINET CHANGE MEANS A FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF PAKI'S
CONTROL OVER THE GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES, RATHER THAN ANY CHANGE
IN POLICY. IN ADDITION TO CHOE, TWO OTHER SENIOR PRESIDENTIAL
ASSISTANTS, ALONG WITH SEVERAL LOYAL ASSEMBLYMEN, WERE MOVED
INTO THE CABINET. THE CABINET RES,WUFFLE APPARENTLY HAD BEEN
PLANNED BY PAK FOR SOME TIME, AND THE TIMEING OF THE MOVE SUG-
GESTS PAK WANTED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE QUIET PERIOD FOLLOWING
THE CLOSE OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SESSION ON THRUSDAY.
KIM'S REMOVAL MAY BE FOLLOWED BY MOIUVES AGAINST OTHERS WHO
COULD EMERGE AS RIVALS TO PAK. CHONG IL-KWON, FOR EXAMPLE,
COULD BE REMOVED AS SPEAKER OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WHEN PAK
REAPPOINTS SOME NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEMBERS IN MARCH. {CONFIDENTIAL}
ADO- DDODOI
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EUROPEAN BRIEF 19'i-?5. Y
1. PORTUGAL: PORTUGUESE SOCIALIST PARTY HEAD SOARES?:IS ON A
WEEK-LONG TOUR OF EUROPEAN CAPITALS TO EXPLAIN RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
IN PORTUGAL. SOARES' MISSION IS PARTISAN RATHER THAN OFFICIAL, BUT
ANY AID COMMITMENTS HE CAN PRODUCE WILL ENHANCE THE SOCIALISTS'
POPULARITY IN THE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS PROMISED FOR THIS SPRINGY
SOARES HAS EMPHASIZED IN HIS TALKS WITH FOREIGN LEADERS THAT
ALTHOUGH THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN PORTUGAL IS STABILIZING,
THE COUNTRY URGENTLY NEEDS ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. PORTUGAL'S
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN OUT EARLY NEXT
YEAR. THE NATION'S GOLD RESERVES, VALUED AT ABOUT 04 BILLION
AT THE PRESENT RATE, WERE EXPECTED TO FORESTALL THE CRISIS,
BUT GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO SELL OR BORROW AGAINST THE GOLD HAVE
BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL, IN LARGE PART BECAUSE OF THE GOLD MARKET'S
`CURRENT INSTABILITY AND THE RELUCTANCE OF BANKERS TO DEAL IN
.LARGE QUANTITIES OF GOLD.''
2 THE AZEVEDO GOVERNMENT EXPECTS TO APPROVE THE FIRST OF A
.SERIES OF AUSTERITY MEASURE-INCLUDING A WAGE FREEZE AND PRICE
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AND TAX INCREASES-AT FRIDAYS'CABINET SESSION. LINKED TO THE
GOVERNMENTS EFFORTS TO STOP THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL??OF THE ECONOMY
IS AN UNPUBLICIZED DECREE ISSUED EARLIER THIS MONTH THAT GIVES
THE FINANCE MINISTER AUTHORITY TO REDUCE OR SUSPEND NEARLY ALL
PREVIOUSLY BUDGETED GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES. THIS SHOULD HELP
REDUCE THE BUDGET DEFICIT, NOW RUNNING AT 10 PERCENT OF GROSS
NATIONAL PRODUCT, AND COULD ALSO HELP DAMPEN THE INFLATIONARY
SURGE?Y
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THEY HAVE GAINED SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH SINCE LAST MONTH!.S PARATROOP UPRISING TO MOVE AHEAD
WITH THEIR AUSTERITY PROGRAM. THEY FEAR, HOWEVER, THAT THE MORE
SEVERE RESTRICTIONS THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED IF FOREIGN ASSISTANCE
IS NOT FORTHCOMING MIGHT SET OFF POPULAR PROTESTS, WHICH COULD
PROVIDE THE COMMUNISTS WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO STAGE A POLITICAL
iiCOMEBACK?Y
WHILE THE CABINET IS CONCENTRATING ON THE ECONOMY, MILITARY
LEADERS HAVE TURNED THEIR ATTENTION TO RENEGOTIATING AN AGREEMENT
!WITH THE MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES OVER THE DIVISION OF GOVERNMENT
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RESPONSIBILITY BETWEEN MILITARY OFFICERS AND CIVILIAN POLITICIANS.
THE ARMED FORCES PRESENTED A DRAFT REVISION TO THE PARTIES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE PARTIES HAVE UNTIL DECEMBER 30 TO SUBMIT
THEIR RESPONSES AND PROPOSALS FOR A NEW PACT. EARLY NEXT YEAR,
A FIVE-MAN DELEGATION FROM THE ALL-MILITARY REVOLUTIONARY
COUNCIL WILL DISCUSS THE PROPOSALS WITH EACH PARTY AND DRAB; UP
,AFINAL DOCUMENT?Y
THE FIVE-MAN DELEGATION IS WEIGHTED IN FAVOR OF THOSE
OFFICERS WHO ARE WILLING TO REDUCE T-1F MILITARY ROLE IN NATIONAL
POLITICAL LIFE BUT WHO DO NOT WANT TO WITHDRAW FROM THE GOVERNMENT
ALTOGETHER. ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THIS GROUP, LISBON REGION
COMMANDER LOURENCO, SAID RECENTLY THAT THE MILITARY SHOULD QUIT
POLITICS AT THE "RIGHT MOMENT" BUT THAT THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS IN THE SPRING. {CON-
4FIDENTIAL}Y
2. WARSAW PACT: THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE WARSAW PACT
cCOUNTRIES ISSUED A COMMUNIQUE TUESDAY TO CAP THEIR FIRST GATHERING
1SINCE 19?3.Y
DATE:
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THE LAST ITEM OF THE SEVE-POINT DOCUMENT SEEMS TO DEAL WITH THE
PROBLEM OF THE COMPATIBIL.:TY OF DETENTE WITH SUCH VENTURES AS SOVIET
SUPPORT FOR THE POPULAR MOVEMENT IN ANGOLA. THE COMMUNIQUE SAYS
ONLY THAT THE MINISTERS EXCHANGED VIEWS ON CERTAIN ASPECTS OF THE
INTERNATIONAL SITUATION. THE TEXT FOLLOWS, HOWEVER, WITH A STATE-
MENT THAT THE PARTICIPANTS "FIRMLY SUPPORT" THE SO-CALLED ANGOLAN
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC.Y
THIS JUXTAPOSITION SUGGESTS THAT THE SOVIETS TRIED, AND FAILED,
TO GET ROMANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER MACOVESCU TO AGREE TO A GENERAL
PROPOSITION THAT DETENTE AND SUPPORT FOR LIBERATION MOVEMENTS ARE
COMPATIBLE, ALTHOUGH HE DID ACCEPT THE COMMUNIQUE'S FORMULATION ON
SUPPORT FOR THE POPULAR MOVEMENT?Y
THE LACK OF EVEN AN OBLIQUE REFERENCE TO CHINA CAN ALSO BE
ATTRIBUTED TO MACOVESCU'S PRESENCE?Y
THE CITATION OF ANGOLA IN THE COMMUNIQUE IS ANOTHER SIGN OF
:THE IMPORTANCE THAT MOSCOW IS ATTACHING TO THE SITUATION THERE. IT
21S PROBABLY MEANT AS A RIPOSTE TO WARNINGS FROM THE US THAT SOVIET
3INVOLVEMENT IN ANGOLA THREATENS DETENTE.Y
DATE:
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THE COMMUNIQUE GENERALLY STICKS TO ESTABLISHED SOVIET POSITIONS
ON MIDDLE EAST ISSUES, INCLUDING THE CURRENT LINE THAT THE PALESTINE
LIBERATION ORGANIZATION MUST PARTICIPATE IN THE GENEVA PEACE CON-
FERENCE ON AN EQUAL BASIS "FROM THE START." IT BREAKS SOME NEW
GROUND IN STATING THAT THE UN "MUST" PLAY A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN
SETTLING THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT.Y
THIS WORDING MAY SET THE STAGE FOR THE SECURITY COUNCIL DEBATE
OPENING JANUARY 12, AND MAY BE MOSCOW'S WAY OF PLACING ITSELF IN LINE
WITH THE SYRIANS. THE SOVIETS ALSO HAVE SHOWN INTEREST IN USING THE
COUNCIL DEBATE TO REFOCUS ATTENTION ON THE GENEVA TALKS.Y
THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE HELSINKI ACCORD APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN
AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE FOREIGN MINISTERS' TALKS. THE COMMUNIQUE IS
LESS CRITICAL OF THE WEST THAN WAS GENERAL SECRETARY BREZHNEV'S SPEECH
AT THE POLISH PARTY CONGRESS LAST WEEK. IT NOTES THAT THE MINISTERS
"EXPECT THE OTHER SIGNATORIES TO ACT IN THE SPIRIT OF THE AGREEMENT,
SAND MAY BE ALLUDING TO BREZHNEV'S PROPOSAL FOR "EUROPEAN" ENERGY AND
2ENVIRONMENTAL CONFERENCES IN ITS CALL FOR STEPS GIVING SPECIFIC
LEXPRESSION TO THE HELSINKI AGREEMENT?Y
DATE:
ORIG:
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THE COMMUNIQUE REFERS APPROVINGLY, BUT UNCOMPROMISINGLY, TO THE
EAST-WEST FORCE REDUC;TONS NEGOTIATIONS IN VIENNA. IT DOES NOT CITE
THE STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATIONS TALKS AT GENEVA. {CCONFIDENTIAL}Y
3. ROMANIA: CAMBODIAN PRINCE !SIHANOUK'S VISIT TO ROMANIA
LAST WEEK WAS LONG ON ATMOSPHERICS BUT SHORT ON SUB-
STANCE. THE TWO MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS--
FROM THE ROMANIAN VIEWPOINT--WERE THE AGREEMENT FOR
BUCHAREST TO ODEN AN EMBASSY IN PHNOM PENH AND PUB-
LIC CAMBODIAN ENDORSEMEf,T OF OBSERVER STATUS FOR
ROMANIA AT THE NONALIGNED SUMMIT IN COLOMBO NEXT
YEAR-Y
NO NEW ACCORDS WERE SIGNED. THIS MAY REFLECT
SIHANOUK'S LIMITED MANDATE WHICH DID NOT EVEN PERMIT HIM TO
EXTEND AN INVITATION TO CEAUSESCU FOR A RETURN
1-,.VISIT. SIHANOUK DID, HOWEVER, HOLD PRIVATE TALKS
-WITH CEAUSESCU, PREMIER MANESCU, AND PARTY SECRE-
TARY UGLAR. SIHANOUK'S PUBLIC RHETORIC WAS SUBDUED
LAND STOOD IN MARKED CONTRAST TO THE ANTI-AMERICAN
DATE:
ORIG:
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ING HIS VISIT TO BUCHAREST LAST MONTH.Y
THE FINAL COMMUNIQUE NOTES THAT THE "EXPERI-
ENCE OF SOCIALIST ROMANIA IS FOLLOWED WITH PARTICU-
LAR INTEREST BY THOSE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WHICH
HAVE OPTED FOR THE FLOURISHING OF THEIR ECONOMIC-
SOCIAL INDEPENDENCE." THIS LANGUAGE CLEARLY IMPLIES
THE EXISTENCE OF A ROMANIAN MODEL FOR SOCIALISM AND
IS A NEW TWIST TO BUCHAREST'S COMMUNIQUE REPERTOIRE. {CONFIDENTIAL}M
4. POLAND: A REUTERS REPORT FROM WARSAW ON TUESDAY CLAIMS
THAT 59 INTELLECTUALS HAVE SIGNED A MANIFESTO PRO-
TESTING PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE POLISH CONSTITU-
TION AND CALLING FOR INCREASED CIVIL LIBERTIES AND
A MORE INDEPENDENT ROLE FOR THE TRADE UNIONS. ONE
y0F THE SIGNERS OF THE DOCUMENT SAYS IT WAS SENT TO
"2A NUMBER OF PARTY AND GOVERNMENT LEADERS.Y
2 THE MANIFESTO IS THE MOST RECENT EXAMPLE OF
'.INCREASED POLITICAL ACTIVITY BY A SMALL GROUP OF
DATE:
ORIG:
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If FILED Tt
INTELLECTUALS, MANY OF WHOM WERE INVOLVED IN THE
STUDENT DISTURBANCES OF 1968. LAST MONTH A GROUP''OF DISSIDENTS
SENT A MEMORANDUM TO PARTY LEADER GIEREK AND PREMIER
JAROSZEWICZ DEMANDING CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS, IN-
CLUDING THE RIGHT TO STRIKE AND FREEDOMS OF ASSEMBLY
AND RELIGION. TIE SAME PEOPLE WERE PROBABLY RE-
SPONSIBLE FOR AN OPEN LETTER CONGRATULATING SOVIET
DISSIDENT ANDREI SAKHAROV ON HIS NOBEL PEACE PRIZE?Y
THE DISSIDENTS HAVE BEEN CAREFUL TO CONFINE THEMSELVES
TO PETITIONING AND SIMILAR ACTIONS THAT ARE TECHNICALLY
NOT ILLEGAL. THE POLICE HAVE I'1ADE IT CLEAR THAT
THEY ARE WATCHING THE GROUP AND THAT A FALSE STEP
COULD FINISH THEM.Y
INCREASED ACTIVITY BY DISSIDENTS COULD BE EM-
1+BARRASSING BUT NOT DANGEROUS TO GIEREK. DISCONTENT
=AMONG WORKERS OVER SHORTAGES OF CONSUMER GOODS IS
2A MUCH MORE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM, AND IT IS HIGHLY UN-
'-LIKELY THAT THE INTELLECTUALS COULD INTEREST THE
DATE:
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WORKERS IN THEIR CAUSE. {SECRET}M
5. BULGARIA: IN CONTRAST TO SCALED-DOWN*SOVIET ECONOMIC
GOALS FOR NEXT YEAR, THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO
SLOWDOWN IN BULGARIAN GROWTH, ACCORDING TO THE AM-
BITIOUS ECONOMIC PROGRAM THAT SOFIA ANNOUNCED ON
DECEMBER 4.Y
NEXT TO ROMANIA, BULGARIA'S ANNUAL ECONOMIC
GROWTH RATE IS THE HIGHEST IN EASTERN EUROPE, AND
THE REGIME HAS NOT LOWERED ITS SIGHTS FOR 1976.
TARGETS IN ALMOST ALL SECTORS REMAIN HIGH, AND SOME
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER L975. AGRICULTURE IS
THE MAIN EXCEPTION; LAST YEAR'S AMBITIONS GOAL OF
A 9.3 PERCENT GROWTH HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO A RISE OF
ONLY 5 PERCENT. THE GROWTH RATE OF PUBLIC SERVICES
4WILL ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY NEXT YEAR?Y
DESPITE THIS MODEST CUTBACK, THE 1976 OUTLOO,k
2FOR CONSUMERS IS FAVORABLE, AND THE GOVERNMENT HAS
"PROMISED TO MAKE MORE GOODS AVAILABLE. THE BUL-
DATE:
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?
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GARIAN PUBLIC HAS EXPERIENCED A SLOW BUT STEADY
RISE IN THE STANDARD OF LIVING FOR SEVERAL YEARS,
AND SOFIA HAS REAFFIRMED ITS COMMITMENT TO CON-
CENTRATE ON "THE FURTHER SATISFACTION OF THE PEO-
PLE'S GROWING NEEDS." THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
RISE IN PRICES FOR CONSUMER GOODS, HOWEVER, AS
PREMIER TODOROV SUGGESTED IN A SPEECH LAST AUGUST?Y
TO ACHIEVE ITS GOALS, THE REGIME IS STRESSING
"LABOR PRODUCTIVITY" COUPLED WITH "LABOR DISCIPLINE."
AN INTENSE CAMPAIGN AGAINST "IDLERS" AND MARGINAL
WORKERS BEGAN LAST FEBRUARY AND HAS BEEN A MAINSTAY
IN THE DRIVE TO WHIP UP POPULAR ENTHUSIASM FOR
OVERFULFILLMENT OF THE PLAN BEFORE THE PARTY CON-
GRESS NEXT MARCH. PREMIER TODOROV, IN HIS SPEECH
-INTRODUCING THE L976 PLAN, ASSERTED THAT PRACTI-
CALLY ALL OF THE L976 GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
NAND IN AGRICULTURE MUST COME FROM INCREASED LABOR
"PRODUCTIVITY. HE DECLARED THAT STRENGTHENING OF
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.
LABOR DISCIPLINE IS AN "IMMEDIATE OBLIGATION," AND
ADDED THAT VIOLATORS OF WORKING DISCIPLINE WILL Br
DENIED THOSE PRIVILEGES AND BENEFITS GIVEN CON-
SCIENTIOUS WORKERS. THE REGIME HAS ALSO CALLED FOR
MORE SHIFT WORK, MODERNIZATION, AND CAPITAL INVEST-
MENT IN NEW EQUIPMENT TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY.Y
TODOROV REPORTED THAT THE REGIME HAD DEVELOPED
A "NEW ECONOMIC MECHANISM," WHICH FEATURES A GREATER
ROLE FOR THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. FOR THE FIRST
TIME, THE L976 PLAN ESTABLISHES OBLIGATORY PRODUC-
TION INDEXES ON A TERRITORIAL BASIS? ALTHOUGH
TODOROV PROVIDED FEW DETAILS, THESE INDEXES ARE
PROBABLY DESIGNED TO MINIMIZE UNEVEN ECONOMIC DE-
VELOPMENT IN VARIOUS BRANCHES OF THE ECONOMY. HE
`'ADDED THAT SOFIA WILL DEMAND UNCONDITIONAL IMPLE-
ACCORDING TO PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES, ALL ECO-
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FILLED THEIR ESTABLISHED QUOTAS FOR 1975. S''FIA
WILL PROBABLY REPEAT THIS SUCCESSFUL PERFORMANCE .'
IN 1976, BUT WILL STILL DEPE&_A HEAVILY ON THE SO-
VIETS, ESPECIALLY FOR FUELS AND M-JERIALS. DE-
SPITE MOSCOW'S VEILED WARNINGS THAT ITS ALLIES MUST
EITHER WEAN THEMSELVES FROM SUCH DEPENDENCE OR SHARE
DEVELOPMENT COSTS, BULGARIA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
TO RECEIVE PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT NOT ACCORDED
OTHER EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. FOR EXAMPLE, THE
SOVIETS MAY HAVE OFFERED BULGARIA TECHNICAL ASSIST-
ANCE UNDER TERMS OF AN AGREEMENT THAT CALLS FOR
MOSCOW TO SUPPLY 720 COMPLETE PLANTS WORTH OVER
900 MILLION RUBLES FROM 1976-80?Y
SOFIA SEEMS RELATIVELY UNCONCERNED ABOUT
4HIGHER SOVIET PRICES FOR RAW MATERIALS--PARTICULARLY
3 FOR OIL--AND MOSCOW HAS REPORTEDLY ASSURED ADEQUATE
2SUPPLIES AT LEAST THROUGH L976. THE BULGARIANS
'ALSO VIEW THE SOVIET UNION AS A GUARANTEED MARKET
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 Apps' cTA g3e NA$fiJWQfA-RDP8j
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)608R
00
OU
10097-,
1
.
_
FOR THE COUNTRY'S INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT--OFTEN OF IN-
FERIO9 QUALITY AND THUS NOT COMPETITIVE IN THE
WEST--THOUGH MOSCOW HAS WARNED THAT THE QUALITY OF
BULGARIAN EXPORTS MUST IMPROVE. IN RETURN FOR SO-
VIET HELP, BULGARIA MAY HAVE TO PARTICIPATE IN MORE
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN THE SOVIET UNION. IN ADDI-
TION, SOFIA WILL PROBABLY SEND MORE BULGARIAN WORK-
ERS TO THE USSR, DESPITE A CHRONIC LABOR SHORTAGE
AT Hot! C. {CONFIDENTIAL}V
SDO DDO
14
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'DATE: DECEMBER 19, 1975
ORIG:
UNIT: OCI/FLO
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