COVERING LETTER FOR DISSEMINATION OF MEMORANDUM TO HOLDERS OF SNIE 31-81 PAKISTAN S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM: THE NEXT THREE YEARS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00111R000200140007-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: October 14, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
DDI/NIC 7700-82/a
14 OCT 1902
DEMORANDUF7 FOR: Chairman, National Intelligence. Council
FRal: Hans Heymann, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer at Large
SUBJECT: Covering Letter for Dissemination of Memorandum
to Holders of SNIE 31-81, "Pakistan's Nuclear
Weapons Program: The Next Three Years"
This is to request that you a) sign the attached covering
letters to the following policy and intelligence officials:
Frank Carlucci - DoD
Richard Perle - DoD
Francis West - DoD
Fred Ikle - DoD
Richard Wagner - DoD
Eugene R.ostow - ACDA
Henry Thomas - DoE
Shelby Brewer - DoE
James Malone - State
James Buckley - State
Nicholas Veliotes - State
Richard Kennedy - State
and b) the memorandum to the DCI requesting that he do the same
for selected Cabinet-level officers.
d3
Hans Hdymann, Jr.
Attachment:
As Stated
cPCPFT
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
 oininrrr
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
I I
SUBJECT: Covering Letter for Dissemination of Memorandum
to Holders of SNIE 31-81, "Pakistan's Nuclear
Weapons Program: The Next Three Years"
Distribution:
Orig. - Addressee
1 - DDI Registry
2 - NIO at Large (Proliferation) Files
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87R00111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
The Honorable Frank C. Carlucci
Deputy Secretary of Defense
Department of Defense
Washington, D.C. 20301
OCT 1982
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold.off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Sincerely,
Enclosure
Henry S. F.owen
Chairman
25X1-
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87R00111 R000200140007-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87R00111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
The Honorable Richard Perle
Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Policy
Department of Defense
Washington, D.C. 20301
Dear Richard:
W OCT 1982
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Sincerely,
Henry S. Bowen
Chairman
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87R00111 R000200140007-4
 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
The Honorable Francis J. West, Jr.
Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Affairs
Department of Defense
Washington, D.C. 20301
~4. OCT .1982
Dear Bing:
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Sincerely,
Henry S. Bowen
Chairman
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87R00111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
!'4 OCT 1982
The Honorable Fred C. Ikle
Under Secretary of Defense
for Policy
Department of Defense
Washington, D.C. 20301
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Sincerely,
---._ I
Henry
Chairman
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87R00111 R000200140007-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
4 OCT 1982
The Honorable Richard. L. Wagner
Assistant to the Secretary of Defense
for Atomic Energy
Department of Defense
Washington, D.C. 20301
Dear Rich:
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Henry S. Rowen
Chairman
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
The Honorable Eugene V. Rostow
Director
US Arms. Control and Disarmament Agency
Washington, D.C. 20451
~i_ OCT 1982
Dear Gene:
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program.was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device,'because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Sincerely,.
Henry -S. Rowen
Chairman
Enclosure
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
The Honorable Shelby Brewer
Assistant Secretary of Energy for
Nuclear Energy
US Department of Energy.
Washington, D.C. 20585
OCT 1982
As.part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment. (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Heniy S. Rowen
Chairman
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
The Honorable Henry E. Thomas
Assistant Secretary of. Energy for
International Affairs
US Department of Energy
Washington, D.C. 20585
Dear Mr. Thomas:
F4, OCT. 1982
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the. US security assistance
relationship.
Sincerely,
Henry S. Bowen
Chairman
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87R00111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
OCT -1992
The Honorable James L. Malone
Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans
and International Environmental and
Scientific Affairs
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Sincerely,
Henry S. Rowen
Chairman
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87R00111 R000200140007-4
 L
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
4 QCT 1982.
National Intelligence Council
The Honorable James L. Buckley
Under Secretary of State for Security
Assistance, Science and Technology
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
Dear Mr. Buckley:
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device,. because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
Sincerely,
V
Henry S. Rowen
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
The Honorable Nicholas A. Veliotes
Assistant Secretary of State for Near
.Eastern and South Asian Affairs
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
As part of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
OCT 1982
Henry S. Rowen
Chairman
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4
j
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL. INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
The Honorable Richard T. Kennedy
Linder Secretary of State for
Management
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
4 OCT ` 1982
Dear Mr. Kennedy:
As part. of the Intelligence Community's ongoing monitoring
of nuclear developments in the South Asian subcontinent, an
updated assessment (enclosed) of Pakistan's nuclear program was
recently completed. Among its key findings: Pakistan will pro-
ceed with the development of a nuclear weapon, but President Zia
will most likely hold off testing of a nuclear device, because
it would precipitate termination of the US security assistance
relationship.
25X1
Sincerely,
Henry S. Rowen
Chairman
Approved For Release 2008/04/14: CIA-RDP87RO0111 R000200140007-4