INVITATION TO ADDRESS THE SEATTLE ROTARY CLUB

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R002600020020-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2009
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: April 20, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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20 April 1984
MEMORANDUM T0: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: George V. Lauder
Director, Public Affairs
SUBJECT: Invitation to Address the Seattle Rotary Club
1. Action Requested: Accept or decline an invitation to address the
Seattle Rotary Clues ul-nc~ieon meeting on Wednesday, 13 June, at the Seattle
Sheraton Hotel.
2. Background: Fenwick J. Crane, President of the Seattle Rotary Club
and Presi ent an Chairman of the Board of Family Life, has invited you to
address the Seattle Rotary Club. The usual format for a luncheon is 15 to 20
minutes of Rotary business immediately following lunch, with the main speaker
introduced at approximately 1:00 p.m. The meeting adjourns at 1:30 p.m.
This invitation is obviously a result of your earlier discussion with
T. Wilson, Chairman Boeing Co. He recently called Jim Hirsch asking again
that you speak at the Rotary Club. Your office was called ble
dates on your calendar. DDS&T passed the information on to STAT
office. Although no commitment was made, the information was misin erpre ed
as an acceptance -- hence the letter (see opposite) stating that you had
agreed to speak. They now request that you consider the letter as an
invitation.
Seattle Rotary is the fourth oldest and second largest of all Rotary
Clubs. They have over 775 of the leading business and professional men in the.
greater Seattle area as members. According to the letter, the Seattle Rotary
is a leading forum in the northwest for speakers wanting to bring a message to
the business leaders in the area. Recent speakers include: Sir Oliver
Wright, British Ambassador to the U.S.; Senator Dan Evans (R WA);
Donald Kendall, Chairman Pepsico; Secretary of the Air Force Verne Orr;
Allan Gottlieb, Canadian Ambassad ercy Rockefeller; Don Pedersen,STAT
President Ford Motor Company; and
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SUBJECT: Invitation to Address the Seattle Rotary Club
3. Recommendation: You indicated to me you would like to do this when
convenient. DDS&T said they can arrange a briefing and tour of Boeing if you
decide to go to Seattle. Since you will be addressing the American Stock
Exchange Washington Conference 9:00 A.M. on 12-June, the 13th would not be a
convenient date. Perhaps you would like to schedule for the fall. See below
for available dates.*
STAT
eorge V. au er
Director o Centra ntel igence Date
? 1~ /
r,~ ~ 2 MAY 1984
i
Directo o ntra Inte i4ence Date
* 19 September / 3 October 21 November
26 September v 14 November 28 November
DECLINE: /~
;. ~ , ,~
~
-~ ''~ '~-~" ~
2 "~IAY 1984
~~ ~~
Di r ctor oi- Sktkntra Intel 1 i Bence Date
(
PAO/KJH/mbm/23 Apr 84/~
Distribution:
Oria - addressee
1 - ER 84-1715
1 - PAO Req. 84-1173
2 - PAO comeback
(drop cony)
STAT
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A ,Y.Li
Fe~~ack J. C'r-ane, r. L.11.
Presidznt and
Chairman of the F3ourd
April 9, 1984
N1r..William J. Casey, Director
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20502
Dear Mr. Casey:
I was pleased to hear fro office that you had
agreed to address the Seat e o ary u on June 13.
Seattle Rotary is the fourth oldest and second largest of all
Rotary Clubs. E~Je have over 775 of the leading business and
professional men in the greater Seattle area as members. Because
of ?the quality of our membership, our club is considered to be
tl~e leading forum in the northwest for speakers wanting to bring
a message to the business leaders in the area. Among recent
speakers are Sir Oliver Wright, British Ambassador to the U.S.,
Se~.a~tc~r Dan 'Evans, Donald Kendall, Chairman Pepsico, Secretary of
the Air Force Verne Orr, T, tdilson, Chairman Boeing Co., Aiian
Gottlieb, Canadian Ambassador, Sharon Percy Rockefeller and Don
Pedersen, President Ford Motor Co.
Our? luncheon meetings are held at the downtown Seattle Sheraton
Notei on Wednesday. The usual format for the meeting is 15 to 20
minutes of Rotary business immediately following lunch, with the
rnain speaker introduced at about 1 p.m. The meeting adjourns prompt'y
at I:30 p.m. We can arrange up tQ an additional 10 minutes of speak-
ing time if you so desire. Kindly advise us on time when your staff
sends biographical data and a black and white picture.
Kindly contact this office if you have any questions. Seattle
Rotary looks forwvard to your visit on June 13.
Sincerely,
- i,~-~?- .SCz--a-~.~.--
President, Seattle Rotary Club
STAT
Fc;roily Life Insxranre Company Horne Office: ParJ~ Prue, SeaEfle 9S101 (ZOO) 24Z-I000 `~
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REf~ARKS OF WILLIAM J? CASEY
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
BEFORE
SEATTLE ROTARY CLUB
SEATTLE SHERATON HOTEL
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
26 SEPTEMBER 1984
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IT IS A GREAT PLEASURE TO HAVE THE CHANCE TO GIVE YOII A
AUICK VIEW OF AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE AND WHAT IT WORRIES ABOUT?
MANY OF YOU HERE IN THE SEATTLE AREA ARE INVOLVED THROUGH YOUR
BUSINESSES IN OUR NATIONAL DEFENSE- EVEN MORE OF YOU ARE
ENGAGED IN DEVELOPING AND APPLYING NEW TECHNOLOGIES- YOU KNOW
WE ARE LIVING IN A CHALLENGING Bl1T DANGEROUS WORLD WHICH
INCREASINGLY IS STEERED AND POWERED BY INFORMATION- THE GOLD
STANDARD HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INFORMATION STANDARD WITH
FACTS FLASHING INSTANTLY AROUND THE WORLD IMPACTING ON THE
VOTES, THE POLICIES, DANGERS, THE VALUES AND THE MARKETS WHICH
SHAPE THE WORLD WE LIVE IN AND SO PROFOUNDLY AFFECT Ol1R LIVES?
INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS IS AS OLD AS THE
REPUBLIC- GEORGE WASHINGTON WAS A ONE'MAN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE-
WITHOUT HIS INSTINCT FOR INTELLIGENCE AND INDEED COVERT ACTION,
HIS TINY RAGTAIL ARMY WOULD NEVER HAVE HELD OUT OVER SEVEN
YEARS AGAINST THE LARGEST EXPEDITIONARY FORCE THE THEN MOST
POWERFUL NATION IN THE WORLD HAD EVERY MOBILIZED- BUT FOR MANY
YEARS THE ~?$? DOWN-PLAYED THE NEED FOR INTELLIGENCE AND AFTER
WORLD WAR I DISMANTLED THE INTELLIGENCE MACHINERY DEVELOPED FOR
THAT OCCASION- HOWEVER, THE DISASTER OF PEARL HARBOR ONCE
AGAIN UNDERSCORED THE IMPORTANCE OF HAVING ACCURATE AND TIMELY
INFORMATION ON THREATS TO OUR PEACE AND SECURITY-
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ICY PREDECESSORS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE ARRAY OF TECHNICAL
MARVELS"PHOTOGRAPHY, ELECTRONICS, ACOUSTICS AND SEISMIC SENSORS"
TO GATHER FACTS FROM ALL CORNERS OF THE EARTH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION FLOWS IN FROM FRIENDLY INTELLIGENCE SERVICES AND
PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD WHO WANT TO HELP US? TO SIFT THROUGH
AND EVALUATE THIS VIRTUAL NIAGARA OF FACTS, THE AMERICAN
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY HAS MORE SCHOLARS AND SCIENTISTS THAN
A LARGE UNIVERSITY FACULTY, AS WELL AS A LARGE ARRAY OF ENGINEERS
AND SPECIALISTS IN COMPUTERS AND COMMUNICATIONS. WE MAINTAIN
A HUGE ALL-SOURCE DATA BASE AND PROVIDE OBJECTIVE, NONPARTISAN
RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS FOR THE PRESIDENT AND OTHER SENIOR NATIONAL
LEADERS.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT CIA AND THE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY DO NOT MAKE POLICY. YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS DO? OUR
MISSION IS TO PROVIDE THOSE OFFICIALS WITH THE REST, MOST
ACCURATE AND TIMELY INFORMATION ON EVENTS AROUND THE WORLD.
INTELLIGENCE IS OUR FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE. IT MUST IDENTIFY
DANGER, EVALUATE THREATS AND PREVENT SURPRISE. IT MUST PRODUCE
INFORMATION TO DEVELOP DEFENSE, COUNTERMEASURES AND POLICIES
CALCULATED TO MINIMIZE AND AVERT THE DANGERS WE SEE.
THE SOVIET UNION HAS BEEN FROM THE BEGINNING AND CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF OUR ATTENTION. IT IS THE ONE COUNTRY
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IN THE WORLD THAT HAS THE ABILITY TO DELIVER DEVASTATING NUCLEAR
POWER AGAINST US? AND, AS I WILL DEVELOP LATER, IT ALSO HAS A
HUGE BATTERY OF OTHER WAYS OF THREATENING AND DAMAGING OUR INTERESTS-
WE WORK HARD TO UNDERSTAND AND DEVELOP INSIGHTS INTO
RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP AND OBJECTIVES, ITS PLANS AND PROBLEMS- FOR
MUCH THE GREATER PART OF THE LAST DECADE THE SOVIET UNION HAS
FUNCTIONED UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF THREE VERY SICK AND DYING
MEN"BREZHNEV, ANDROPOV AND CHERNENKO" ITS POLICIES MOLDED BY A
POLITBURO'DOMINATED BY A GERONTOCRACY OF MEN IN THEIR SEVENTIES~
FOR SOME MONTHS NOW AS CHERNENKO FADES IN HEALTH AND POWER,
THEY SEEM LOCKED IN A SUCCESSION STRUGGLE FEATURING A COMPETITION
IN HURLING HOSTILE RHETORIC AT THE UNITED STATES-
WHILE THIS IS GOING ON THEY HAVE TO STRUGGLE WITH AN
ECONOMY WHICH HAS BEEN FALTERING FOR SOME YEARS NOW- THEY FACE
A GROWING SOCIAL DISINTEGRATION AS THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF MALES
DECLINES SHARPLY, ALCOHOLISM INCREASES"ESPECIALLY AMONG THE
YOUNG"HEALTH CARE ERODES AND CRIME AND CORRUPTION GROW- ALL
THIS IS QUITE VISIBLE-
STILL, THEY EXPAND A LARGE ARSENAL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
AIMED AT THE UNITED STATES, WESTERN EUROPE, AND EAST ASIA- NEW
MISSILES AND MISSILE'CARRYING AIRCRAFT AND SUBMARINES ARE BEING
DESIGNED, DEVELOPED, TESTED, AND DEPLOYED IN AMAZING PROFUSION-
THIS IS AUGMENTED BY WORK CARRIED ON OVER THE LAST DECADE TO
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IMPROVE THEIR MISSILE DEFENSES? RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN ALARMING
SIGNS OF RADAR DEPLOYMENTS WHICH MAY GO BEYOND THE 1972 TREATY
LIMITING MISSILE DEFENSES; AND WE HAVE ALSO SEEN THE TESTING OF
INTERCEPTORS AND OTHER ACTIVITIES THAT WOULD GIVE THE SOVIETS A
RUNNING START IF THEY DECIDED TO BREAK THE TREATY AND ESTABLISH
A NATIONWIDE MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM? THIS, OF COURSE, COULD
TIP THE STRATEGIC BALANCE AGAINST US?
IN EUROPE, THE WARSAW FACT CONVENTIONAL FORCES OUTNUMBER
NATO IN TROOP STRENGTH, IN TANKS, IN GUNS, AND IN PLANES? THESE
TOGETHER WITH ANTITANK AND ANTIAIRCRAFT MISSILES AND OTHER
SOPHISTCATED CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS ARE BEING DEPLOYED IN AN
INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE WAY? A GROWING NUMBER OF LONG-RANGE
OFFENSIVE MISSILES ARE AIMED AT CAPITAL CITIES AND MILITARY
TARGETS IN WESTERN EUROPE?
BUT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SOVIETS MAY LIE ELSEWHERE?
KHRUSHCHEV TOLD US IN 1961 THAT COMMUNISM WOULD WIN'-NOT THROUGH
NUCLEAR WAR WHICH COULD DESTROY THE WORLD, OR EVEN A CONVENTIONAL
WAR WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUCLEAR WAR'-BUT RATHER THROUGH WARS OF
NATIONAL LIBERATION IN AFRICA, ASIA, AND LATIN AMERICA? TODAY
WE CAN SEE THE RESULTS OF SOVIET SUPPORT FOR SUCH WARS AROUND
THE WORLD? LOOK AT HOW THE SOVIETS HAVE EXPANDED THEIR PRESENCE
IN THE THIRD WORLD IN A MERE DECADE:
THEY ARE IN VIETNAM, ALONG CHINAS SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ASTRIDE THE SEA LANES THAT BRING .JAPANS OIL FROM
THE PERSIAN GULF?
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- IN AFGHANISTAN, THEY HAVE PLACED THEMSELVES SOO MILES
CLOSER TO OILFIELDS OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE WARM'WATER
PORTS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN?
- THEY ARE INFILTRATING THE HORN OF AFRICA WHICH OVERLOOKS
THE SUEZ CANAL, THE PASSAGEWAY THAT CONNECTS THE MEDITERRANEAN
SEA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN? THEY HAVE THEIR EYE ON SOUTHERN
AFRICA, WHICH IS RICH IN THE MINERALS VITAL TO WESTERN
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION?
- AND FINALLY, THEY ARE NOW SUPPORTING REVOLUTIONARY
MOVEMENTS IN OUR OWN BACKYARD"THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA?
THE AREA BETWEEN THE RIO GRANDE AND THE PANAMA CANAL
CLEARLY IS THE ONE GLOBAL REGION THE CONTROL OF WHICH BY THE
SOVIET UNION WOULD PROVE MOST MENACING TO THE UNITED STATES?
THERE IS NO NEED HERE TO DESCRIBE HOW A HOSTILE SOUTHERN
BORDER WOULD HAMSTRING THE UNITED STATES IN ITS ABILITY TO MEET
ITS GLOBAL COMMITMENTS? BECAUSE CUBA IS NOW A WELL'DEFENDED
BASE FOR SOVIET SUBMARINES AND AIRCRAFT, IN ANY FUTURE WAR OUR
LOGISTIC SUPPORT OF OVERSEAS COMMITMENTS IS ALREADY CERTAIN TO
BE INCOMPARABLY MORE DIFFICULT THAN IT WAS IN THE WORST DAYS OF
WORLD WAR II? NOR NEED WE DWELL HERE ON THE SCENARIO OF A
TWILIGHT STRUGGLE AGAINST LATIN TERRORISTS IN AN AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST SWOLLEN BY REFUGEES, AND ON THE SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES
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OF SUCH A STRUGGLE- LET US SIMPLY NOTE THE CONCLUSION OF THE
KISSINGER COMMISSION TO THE EFFECT THAT RELATIVELY LITTLE STANDS
IN THE WAY OF THE SOVIET DRIVE TO ISOLATE THE UNITED STATES IN
ITS OWN HEMISPHERE" AND THAT NICARAGUA IS THE CONTINENTAL SPEARHEAD
OF THAT DRIVE- AS THE SOVIETS WITH CUBAN, EAST GERMAN, NORTH
KOREAN HELP TO ENFORCE THE BREZHNEV~PEOPLE DOCTRINE'-ONCE
COMMUNIST ALWAYS COMMUNIST-'SUBJUGATED PEOPLE ARE RESISTING-
TODAY IN AFGHANISTAN, ANGOLA, CAMBODIA, ETHIOPIA, AND
NICARAGUA, TO MENTION ONLY THE MOST PROMINENT ARENAS, THOUSANDS
OF ORDINARY PEOPLE ARE VOLUNTEERS IN IRREGULAR WARS AGAINST THE
SOVIET ARMY OR SOVIET'SUPPORTED REGIMES- WHEREAS IN THE 1960s
AND 1970s ANTI'WESTERN CAUSES ATTRACTED RECRUITS THROUGHOUT THE
THIRD WORLD, THE 1980s HAVE EMERGED AS THE DECADE OF GUERRILLAS
RESISTING COMMUNIST REGIMES- MORE THAN A QUARTER OF A MILLION
PEOPLE HAVE TAKEN UP ARMS AGAINST COMMUNIST OPPRESSION IN
THESE COUNTRIES-
TO IMPLEMENT ITS OVERALL STRATEGY, THE SOVIETS USE THE
WORLDWIDE APPARATUS OF THE KGB, PLUS SOME 7O NON-GOVERNING
COMMUNIST PARTIES, PLUS PEACE AND FRIENDSHIP OR~ANIZATINS ALL
OVER THE WORLD DIRECTED FROM MOSCOW, PLUS THE EAST GERMAN,
CUBAN AND OTHER BLOC INTELLIGENCE SERVICES" ALL WORKING TO
STEAL OUR TECHNOLOGY, TO DAMAGE OUR REPUTATION, TO DIVIDE US
FROM OUR FRIENDS, TO DESTABILIZE, SUBVERT AND OVERTHROW
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GOVERNMENTS FRIENDLY TO US? THE CIA IS THE ORGANIZATION IN THE
FREE WORLD MOST CAPABLE OF DEALING EFFECTIVELY WITH THIS ENORMOUS
APPARATUS AND,FRUSTRATING ITS OBJECTIVES-
OVER THE LAST YEAR, THE KGB HAS TAKEN THE WORST SHELLACKING
IN ITS HISTORY AS WELL OVER lOO SOVIET INTELLIGENCE AGENTS
DEFECTED OR WERE EXPELLED FROM OVER ZO COUNTRIES ON ALL CONTINENTS-
RUMORS, AGENTS OF INFLUENCE, KEPT PRESS AND RADIO FACILITIES
AND FORGERIES SPREADING POISON AROUND THE WORLD NEED TO BE
SPOTTED AND COUNTERED- TERRORISM IS A NEW WEAPONS SYSTEM AND
IT WORKS TO DISSOLVE THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN WAR AND PEACE- WEAVE
SEEN IT MOVE FROM PLASTIC CHARGES, TO ASSASSINATIONS, TO
HIGHJACKING, TO CAR BOMBS AND WE WORRY ABOUT NUCLEAR AND
BIOLOGICAL TERRORISM- TERRORISM HAS A HOME IN NORTH KOREA,
IRAN, LIBYA, BULGARIA- IT IS INCREASINGLY USED AS A FOREIGN
POLICY INSTRUMENT OF FOREIGN STATES- THIS WEAPONS SYSTEM, THIS
FOREIGN POLICY INSTRUMENT MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO WORK- THE
IMPLICATIONS ARE T00 OMINOUS- TODAY THERE IS NO MORE URGENT
TASK FOR STATESMANSHIP THAN TO DEVELOP A RATIONAL WAY TO CHECK
RAMPANT TERRORISM THROUGH IMPROVED SECURITY, INTELLIGENCE
GATHERING, RETALIATIONS AND PREEMPTION AGAINST SPECIFIC TARGETS,
POLITICAL ISOLATION AND ECONOMIC SQUEEZE ON STATES SPONSORING
TERRORISM, AND ALL OTHER SENSIBLE MEASURES- TO BE EFFECTIVE
THE RESPONSE TO TERRORISM MUST BE A CONCERTED ONE ON THE PART
OF ALL CIVILIZED AND PEACE-LOVING STATES-
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NARCOTICS IS ANOTHER PROBLEM THAT IS ENGAGING MORE AND
MORE OF OUR ATTENTION- U?S? CITIZENS SPEND BETWEEN $5O AND $8O
BILLION A YEAR IN ILLEGAL DRUGS- THERE IS A STEADY FLOW OF
DRUGS INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM SOUTH AMERICA, THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE OF SOUTHEAST ASIA, FROM AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, AND
IRAN- AND THE FLOW IS INCREASING-
THE METHODS BY WHICH DRUG SMUGGLERS BRING~NARCOTICS INTO
THIS COUNTRY DEFY THE IMAGINATION- SOME OF THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF
MONEY BEING MADE IN DRUGS ARE USED TO FINANCE TERRORISTS AND
REVOLUTIONARY POLITICAL GROUPS AROUND THE WORLD?
WE IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ARE COMMITTING ADDITIONAL
RESOURCES TO COLLECTING INFORMATION ABOUT NARCOTICS AND DEDICATE
MORE PEOPLE TO ANALYZING THAT INFORMATION- AND WE CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION BETWEEN OURSELVES AND THE LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCIES-
ANOTHER CHALLENGING INTELLIGENCE QUESTION WE FACE IS
DETERMINING THE STATE OF SOVIET TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MILITARY AND STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGICAL SURPRISE-
IN SOME TECHNOLOGY AREAS, SOVIET CAPABILITY RIVALS OUR
OWN; ALTHOUGH THE PERIODIC ESTIMATES WE PRODUCE SHOW THAT THE
U-S? REMAINS IN THE LEAD IN MOST CRITICAL CATEGORIES- HOWEVER,
WE CANNOT AFFORD TO BE COMPLACENT- SOVIETS ARE MAKING REMARKABLE
PROGRESS AND THEY ARE DOING IT WITH 0~ HELP?
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DURING THE LATE 1970s, SOVIETS GOT ABOUT 30,000 SAMPLES OF
WESTERN PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT, WEAPONS, AND MILITARY COMPONENTS
AND OVER 400,000 TECHNICAL DOCUMENTS, BOTH CLASSIFIED AND
UNCLASSIFIED- THE MAJORITY OF THIS MATERIAL CAME FROM THE
U?S?; SOME CAME FROM WESTERN EUROPE AND .JAPAN-
HOW DO THE SOVIETS GET SO MUCH`OF OUR TECHNICAL KNOW-HOWL
FIRST, THEY COMB THROUGH OUR OPEN LITERATURE, BUT THROUGH LEGAL
CHANNELS, ATTEND OUR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONFERENCES, AND
SEND THEIR STUDENTS HERE TO STUDY- SECOND, THEY USE DUMMY
FIRMS IN SOPHISTICATED INTERNATIONAL DIVERSION OEPRATIONS, SOME
LEGAL, SOME ILLEGAL, TO PURCHASE WESTERN TECHNOLOGY- WE KNOW
OF SOME 3OO FIRMS OPERATING FROM MORE THAN 3O COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE
ENGAGED IN THESE TRADE DIVERSION SCHEMES-
IT IS CLEAR THAT THE U?S? AND OUR WESTERN ALLIES MUST TAKE
STEPS TO PROTECT OUR MILITARY, INDUSTRIAL, AND SCIENTIFIC
COMMUNITIES- WE MUST KEEP TWO OBJECTIVES IN VIEW- FIRST, WE
MUST SEEK TO KEEP OUR TECHNOLOGICAL LEAD-TIME OVER THE SOVIETS
IN VITAL DESIGN AND MANUFACTURING KNOW-HOW- SECOND, WE MUST
CONTROL THE EXPORT AND MANUFACTURING OF INSPECTION AND AUTOMATIC
TEST EQUIPMENT THAT ENABLES THE SOVIETS TO OVERCOME THEIR OWN
DEFICIENCIES IN MILITARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-
BUT I DONUT WANT TO LEAVE YOU WITH THE IMPRESSION THAT THE
ONLY CHALLENGES THE UNITED STATES FACES ARE MILITARY THREATS-
AS BUSINESSMEN YOU ARE ONLY T00 AWARE THAT U?S? INDUSTRY FACES
TOUGH COMPETITION AROUND THE WORLD?
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AMERICAN BUSINESS IS BEING CHALLENGED BY NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZING
COUNTRIES SUCH AS SINGAPORE, SOUTH KOREA, TAIWAN, AND BRAZIL-
THESE FAST-RISING STARS ARE AGGRESSIVELY RESHAPING THEIR
INDUSTRIES FROM PRODUCING SIMPLE, LABOR'INTENSIVE GOODS TO NEW,
HIGH'GROWTH TECHNOLOGY- LOWER LABOR COSTS AND GOVERNMENT
SUBSIDIZATION OF MANUFACTURING WILL'MAKE THEM TOUGH MARKET
COMPETITORS-
THE NEAR'TERM ECONOMIC IMPACT OF GROWING COMPETITION AND
TECHNOLGICAL CAPABILITY IN OTHER COUNTRIES IS FAMILIAR TO ALL
OF US'-LOSS OF JOBS, FOREIGN TRADE DEFICITS, ETC- WE IN THE
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY MUST ALSO ASK ONE ADDITIONAL QUESTION--
WHAT ARE THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE LOSS OF U?S?
TECHNOLOGICAL AND MARKET LEADERSHIP?
THE FACT THAT ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE OUTSIDE OF
THE ~?$? DIMINISHES OUR ABILITY TO LIMIT ITS FLOW TO COUNTRIES
WITH INTERESTS THAT ARE INIMICAL TO OIIRS? MOREOVER, OTHER
COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES MORE ADVANCED THAN THE
U?S? COULD LEAD TO GROWING ~?$? DEPENDENCY ON FOREIGN SOURCES
AND SUPPLIES, FOR COMPONENTS OR SUB-ASSEMBLIES~OSED BY OUR
MILITARY- THE U?S? IS ALREADY HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON JAPAN FOR
HIGHLY RELIABLE CERAMIC PACKAGES FOR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS- IF
U?S- COMPANIES LOSE THEIR COMPETITIVE POSITION IN HIGH TECHNOLOGY
SECTORS, OUR FIRMS COULD WITHDRAW FROM MARKETS OR ELECT NOT TO
DEVELOP A FUTURE GENERATION OF PRODUCTS- MILITARY PROGRAMS,
? 1~
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AS A RESULT, SIMPLY MAY NOT HAVE A TALENT POOL AND THE RELEVANT
EXPERIENCE TO DRAW UPON TO DEVELOP AND MANUFACTURE FUTURE
WEAPONS SYSTEMS? THIS IS OF SPECIAL CONCERN IN THE MACHINE,
TOOL, AND SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES? SO YOUR INTEREST AS
BUSINESSMEN ABOUT TRADE IMBALANCES AND OUR CONCERN FOR NATIONAL
SECURITY DO OVERLAP?
AS I HAVE JUST OUTLINED, TODAY OUR NATIONAL LEADERS FACE A
DIVERSE AND SOMETIMES BEWILDERING ARRAY OF CHALLENGES--THE
VIOLENCE OF SMALL TERRORIST GROUPS, DESTABILIZATION BY FOREIGN-
BACKED INSURGENCIES, AND EVEN OUTRIGHT AGGRESSION? TO DEFEND
OUR NATIONAL INTERESTS, OUR LEADERS NEED MULTIPLE CAPABILITIES
AND 'OPTIONS RANGING FROM NEGOTIATIONS AND EMBARGOES TO COVERT
MILITARY ACTIONS AND EVEN THE ABILITY TO THREATEN AND USE
MILITARY FORCE? THESE ARE THE INSTRUMENTS OF STATECRAFT WHICH
OUR NATIONAL LEADERS MUST HAVE AT THEIR DISPOSAL IF THEY ARE TO
CAREFULLY TAILOR RESPONSES TO THEIR EVALUATION OF OUR NATIONAL
INTERESTS?
WHAT WE NEED AS A NATION IS TO DEVELOP A CONSENSUS ON THE
OBJECTIVES OF OUR FOREIGN POLICY? WE NEED A FOREIGN POLICY
THAT IS BOTH BIPARTISAN AND STABLE? SUCH A FOREIGN POLICY
MUST BE DEVELOPED BY THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH IN CLOSE CONSULTATION
WITH KEY MEMBERS AND COMMITTEES OF CONGRESS AND IN OPEN PUBLIC
DEBATES SO THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS THE NECESSARY
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SUPPORT AT CRUCIAL MOMENTS- GREAT LOSING RATTLES OVER THE
OBJECTIVES OF OUR FOREIGN POLICY, PLAYED OUT ON THE WORLD STAGE
AT CRITICAL TIMES, REPRESENT DEVASTATING SETBACKS FOR THE U?S?
AND PROPAGANDA FODDER FOR OUR ADVERSARIES- WITHOUT A SUSTAINED
CONSTANT POLICY"ONE THAT TRANSCENDS INEVITABLE POLITICAL CHANGE--
WE CANNOT COUNTER THE RELENTLESS PRESSURE OF THE SOVIETS OR
HELP BRING PROGRESS TO THE THIRD WORLD- IN A DEMOCRACY THERE
IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR A FULLY-ARTICULATED, VIGOROUSLY-DEFENDED
POLICY-
? 12
Approved For Release 2009/02/25: CIA-RDP86M00886R002600020020-3