YOUR MEMORANDUM OF 17 AUGUST 1984 SUBJECT: WHITE HOUSE DIGEST: CASTRO S CUBA: A MODEL FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160009-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 2, 2008
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: August 20, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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Central Intelligence Agency
FR 84-7014/1
20 August 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Honorable Robert M. Kimmitt
Executive Secretary
National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: Your. Memorandum of 17 August 1984, Subject:
White House Digest: "Castro's Cuba:
A Model for Arrested Development"
We have no comments on the attachment to the subject
memorandum.
cc: Mr. Charles Hill
Executive Secretary
Department of State
Colonel R.J. Affourtit, USA
Executive Secretary
Department of Defense
Distribution
Original - Addressee
1 - Each cc listed
1 - NIO/LA
1 Chrono
1 ER
Executive Secretary
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506
August 17, 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR MR. CHARLES HILL
Executive Secretary
Department of State
COL R.J. AFFOURTIT
Executive Secretary
Department of Defense
Executive secretary
Central Intelligence Agency
SUBJECT: White House Digest: "Castro's Cuba:
A Model for Arrested Development"
Wit:^C1;'...,
1- 7014
The NSC requests final review and clearance of the attached
White House Digest by August 24, 1984.
nom.
Robert M. Kimmitt
Executive Secretary
White House Digest
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CASTRO'S CUBA: A MODEL FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
In the 25 years that Fidel Castro has ruled Cuba, he has
consistently portrayed his revolution as a model for Third World
states that wish to escape the burdens of underdevelopment.
Castro presents Cuba as a success story, implying that the
country was woefully underdeveloped in 1959 but now boasts
impressive statistics in different areas of economic development.
Such a portrayal ignores many important facts and is
deliberately misleading. Cuba before January 1958 was well ahead
of most other, if not all other Caribbean states in many
significant economic areas.
In 1958 Cuba enjoyed the highest Gross National Product
(GNP) and per capita income in the Caribbean Basin after the U.S.
It had significantly larger numbers of cars and telephones than
its Caribbean and Central American neighbors. Moreover, the
numbers of such items were steadily rising in the years before
the Castro takeover.
By 1975, however, several Caribbean Basin countries had
passed Cuba in some of these economic indicators, demonstrating
that while some progress had been made in Cuba, it did not
approach the progress made during the same years in non-Communist
countries.
Eight other Caribbean Basin states, all of which were well
behind Cuba in such things as numbers of cars, telephones, and
televisions in 1958, made great strides in all these areas by
1977. In Cuba, on the other hand, there was nothing approaching
the improvement in the other eight states. If anything, Cuba has
shown itself to be a model of arrested development.
Nevertheless, impressive sounding claims are made by Castro
and on behalf of Castro. One of these is the supposed improve-
ment in the infant mortality rate in the years since 1959.
Again, Castro began from a high level. Cuba's infant mortality
rate in 1959 was 32 per thousand. This was better than most
countries in the world, including Germany, Italy and Spain. In
1970, the rate had risen to 38 per thousand, although Castro
claims to have reduced it to 19 per thousand by 1980.
Castro also takes credit for improving literacy and medical
care. In the area of literacy, the rate in 1959 was 78% and
rising. Castro's "success" has been simply in doing away with
remaining pockets of illiteracy. Improvement in medical care,
measured in numbers of people per physician, has also lagged well
behind the improvement made in other developing countries.
In the meantime, the Cuban economy has grown completely
dependent on sugar and on a huge Soviet subsidy. Cuba has failed
repeatedly to increase the amount of sugar harvested and the
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annual yield of this primary export crop remains the same as it
was 25 years ago. The Soviet subsidy to Cuba last year alone
amounted to $650 million in military assistance and $4 billion in
economic assistance. This accounts for one-fourth of Cuba's
gross national product and averages $11 million per day.
Introduction
Cuba is similar to Ohio both in size and population. It is
frequently presented as a model for underdeveloped states because
of the alleged improvements that have been made in a number of
economic indicators since Castro marched into Havana on January
1, 1959.
The model that is held up for emulation by a number of North
American scholars is actually one of rigid state control of the
economy and greatly restricted civil liberties.
A Mexican scholar recently wrote about the difference
between civil liberties and what he calls the "elemental
liberties," which he claims Cuba has conquered. He is typical of
many apologists for Cuba when he says:
"How are we going to say to all of these people
[Mexicans, Salvadorans, Guatemalans] that they must fight
socialism to defend their liberty of expression? What
liberty? Do we really think that all these miserable people
can express all their frustration, bitterness and anger?
Let us think for a moment that we might talk to the
Nicaraguans of those fundamental liberties that the Cubans
have conquered.
"Let us tell them that ... in Cuba all the children
receive free medical attention. That in Cuba no one dies of
hunger. That in Cuba everyone has shoes.... And let us tell
the Nicaraguans that in return for this there is no freedom
of expression in Cuba and dissent is not allowed and give
them the choice. What do you think they would prefer? To
stay as they are, dying of hunger but exercising their
liberty of expression? Or would they choose the other
option?"
This reasoning, besides revealing a certain amount of
elitism, also assumes that Third World countries must choose
between freedom and necessities. Further, it accepts the Castro
line that his reign has been an economic success story.
The reality - Cuba Before Castro
In 1958, Cuba was far ahead of most of its Caribbean and
Central American neighbors economically. Moreover, many of the
indicators used to measure such progress were rising throughout
the 1950s.
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Some of these advances had little to do with the political
system the island had. Advances in technology, medicine and
industry have taken place all over the world in the 20th century
and all countries have benefitted to varying degrees. It is
disingenuous for Castro to take credit for all the material
advances that have taken place while he has held power.
United Nations Statistical Yearbooks and other sources from
International Organizations clearly show that the people of
pre-Castro Cuba were much better off than Nicaraguans, Costa
Ricans, Sa]Ivadorans, or the people in the two countries of
Hispanola. A few examples will demonstrate this. It is most
useful to compare Cuba with Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic
since these states have had extended periods of democratic
politics and free market economic policies.
Cuba in 1958 had about 5.3 times as many people as Cosa
Rica and about 2.3 times as many as the Dominican Republic.
However, the Cubans had 170,000 telephones, 13 times as many
telephone as Costa Rica and 9 times more than the Dominican
Republic.
Cubans travelled around their island in 159,000 cars in
1958, on 7,000 km of paved roads. Costa Ricans had 15,000 cars,
less than 10% of the Cuban figure, and less than 15% of the paved
roads5 even though Costa Rica is less than half the size of
Cuba.
Television was also readily available in the pre-Castro
days. There were 500,000 T.V.'s in Cuba, compared with only
6,000 in the Dominican Republic. In fact, the Cubans had about
six times as many television receivers as did6the 19 million
inhabitants of eight other Caribbean nations.
Health Care:
Castro has also made many grandiose claims about improved
health care, especially for the poorest people of Cuba. Once
again, it is important to see what Castro had to work with and
what the trends were in 1958. The year before, the U.N. reported
that Cuba had about 6,400 doctors, more than double the number of
ten years earlier.
Costa Rica had only 379 doctors i~ 1957 and the Dominican
Republic had fewer than 600 (in 1954). What this means is
that Cuba was already well ahead of its neighbors both in abso-
lute numbers of physicians and the ratio of doctors to
inhabitants.
This undoubtedly accounts in part for the substantially
lower death rates in Cuba, as compared to Costa Rica and the
Dominican Republic. Interestingly enough, the death rates had
dropped substantially in the latter two countrieg by 1972, while
in Cuba the drop was less than one per thousand.
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Castro has resorted to an outright fabrication to claim
success for lowering the infant mortality rate. Part of the
legend of Castroism is that it is responsible for lowering the
infant mortality rate from 60 per thousand to 19 per thousand.
The reality is less impressive.
When Castro cam9 to power, the rate was not 60 per thousand
but 32 per thousand. Lowering this rate to 19, which, by the
way, is Castro's figure and not that of any independent health
organization, is far less an accomplishment than going from 60 to
19.
In the first eleven years of Castroism, however, the rate
actually rose to 38 per thousand. During the same period in
Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, the rate dropped sub-
stantially. What becomes clear from these figures is first, that
Castro inherited an infant mortality rate lower than that of
several developed states (Germany, Italy and Spain) and far lower
than anywhere else in Latin America; and second, that the
worsening of this rate in Cuba was virtually unique in the
Caribbean area.
This is, no doubt, why Castro misrepresented the rate before
he came to power. What is puzzling is that so many otherwise
knowledgeable observers would accept Castro's figure without
looking into it more closely.
Castro is praised by some observers for bringing life
expectancy up to 70 years, certainly a respectable figure, if
true. But once again, Fidel began with a higher figure than most
of his neighbors. Life expectancy in Cuba from 1955-60 was 62,
compared to 61 in Costa Rica and only 49 in the Dominican
Republic. By 1975 it had risen to 69.5, for an increase of 12%.
Costa R}8a's rise was also 12% and the Dominican Republic went up
by 18%.
Castro's "achievement," therefore, was no better than
democratic Costa Rica's and not as dramatic as the Dominican
Republic's. More to the point, life expectancy has been
increasing in most states not at war because of better medicines
and health care. This has little to do. with the political
structure.
Literacy:
Finally, there remains the question of literacy. Some of
Castro's and his apologists' most grandiose claims are in this
area and they are frequently used as justification for his
totalitarian policies. Castro inherited one of the highest
literacy rates in Latin America and an advanced educational
system.
In fact, the literacy rate in 1958 was about 78%.11 This
was largely due to the trend toward urbanization and
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industrialization. Castro's "success" has been simply in doing
away with remaining pockets of illiteracy. Even this is not an
unmixed blessing, since Castrc s literacy program includes a
heavy dose of Marxist-Leninist indoctrination along with the
spelling lessons.
Arrested Development - Cuba and Others Since 1959
We have seen that in 1955
neighbors in numbers of telept
infant survivability and liter
however, have been far less di
had Communist governments or I
and the Dominican Republic arE
By 1961, both Cuba and ti
from long periods of traditioi
Batista in Cuba and Rafael Trt
However, the Dominican tgpubl:
and Cuba was far ahead.
Cuba was far ahead of its
3nes, cars, televisions, doctors,
icy. The improvements since 1959,
imatic than in states that .have not
.ige Soviet subsides. Costa Rica
prime examples of this.
a Dominican Republic were emerging
al dictatorship, that of Fulgencio
jillo in the Dominican Republic.
was in terrible economic shape
One of the easiest ways
looking at the Gross National
over a period of time. To se,
tributed, the most useful fig-
In 1982, the World Bank
for Cuban GNP per capita, but
figure was somewhat less that
Costa Rica, even with the fin
1981, managed a GNP per capit
Republic's figure was $1,260,
of Caribbean states.
Even more significant th
rates for these three states.
Rican economy and that of the
annual percentage of 3%. Thi
that the world underwent two
those years.
Cuba, with its centraliz
planning, had a static GNP du
difficult to conceive a state
of that GNP is provided in tr
performance of the Cuban ecor
ment when compared to free er
Cuba's relative positior
American neighbors was high t
1952, for example, only Vene2
o gauge economic advancement is by
Product (GNP) for various countries
how this growth has been.dis-
re is GNP per capita.
topped providing specific estimates
the best estimates are that the
$1,400 in 1974 constant prices.
ncial difficulties it faced in
of $1,430. The Dominican
which puts it. in the middle range
.n the raw figures are the growth
From 1960-1981, both the Costa
Dominican Republic grew by an
is a healthy rise, considering
severe oil supply shocks during
:d and bureaucratic ec1iomic
-ing those same years. It is
s GNP not going up when one-quarter
form-of a Soviet subsidy. The
)my has been a genuine disappoint-
:erprise states.
on GNP per capita among its Latin
afore the Communist takeover. In
iela and Argentina had higher GNPs
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per capita than Cuba. By 1981, however, Venezuela, Uruguay,
Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Panama, Paraguay, Costa Rica,
Colombia, the Dominican Repblic, Ecuador, Peru and Guatemala
could make the same claim.
By 1976, the number of telephones in Cuba had almost
doubled, although the number of telephones per capita dropped.
In the Dominican Republic the number of telephones in 1977 was
almost 7 times the 1958 figure15 In Costa Rica., there were more
than 10 times the 1958 figure.
From 1958 to 1976, the number of passenger cars in Cuba was
cut in half. In the Dominican Republic, there werg67.7 times as
many cars and Costa Rica's number went up 4 times. These two
countries showed spectacular progress in attaining television
receivers (over a 2000%1i1ncrease). Castro's increase from 1960
to 1977 was a mere 1.3%
Another indicator of development is the number of people per
physician. The Dominican Republic went from over 7,000 people
for each doctor in 1957 to less than 2,000 in 1973. Costa Rica
improved its ratio from 2,700 to 1 to 1,500 to 1 during the same
period. In Cuba, which receives so much credit for improving
health care, the ratio, while lower than the democratic states,
actually ro1sj slightly from 1960 to 1976 (from 1,020 to 1 to
1,120 to 1. ) -- during a period when Cuba's total population
decreased by almost 10 percent.
Hand in hand with improved medical care is infant mortality.
As we have seen, Castro managed to make that rate go up, which is
quite a negative achievement. During the same period (1959-1970)
substantially higher infant mortality rates in the Dominican
Republic and Costa Rica were brought down substantially.
Finally, after 1972-73, the Cuban infant mortality rate began to
drop, and currently stands at a respectable, but not a
surprising, 19 per thousand.
Finally, most Latin American states have raised the life
expectancy of their populations by a higher percentage than Cuba
has. Cuba's life expectancy figure is high, 73 years, but it was
also higher than most Latin American states in 1960. Since then,
sixteen of Castro's neighbors have matched or exceeded the Cuban
improvement, i$cluding very poor states such as Haiti, Bolivia
and Honduras.
Conclusion
Castro has actually arrested the development that Cuba
underwent during the 1940s and 1950s. Other Caribbean states,
with considerably less to work with in 1959, and without a huge
Soviet subsidy, have made great strides in addressing their
economic difficulties. In some cases, they have surpassed Cuba
in absolute figures. In virtually every case the improvement has
been far greater.
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Even more importantly, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic
have achieved this without prison camps, extensive convict labor,
executions, political prisoners, massive emigration, or a repres-
sive political system that stifles all forms of political dis-
sent. In the meantime, the Cuban economy has grown completely
dependent on sugar and on a huge Soviet subsidy. This is the
future Castro has to offer his Third world imitators.
This repudiates the rather bizarre notion that somehow
freedom and economic progress are incompatible. If Castro's Cuba
is any example, stifling political and civil freedoms do not
produce a trade off in greater economic development. For the
Cuban people, 25 years of Castro has meant seeing their land
become a Soviet protectorate and their sons become Soviet proxy
troops. -
Even if Castro did provide economic benefits, can any
reasonable person contend that these excuse the Communist
oppression that he has also inflicted on the people of Cuba?
Freedom of speech, religion, assembly, dissent, and the press are
the birthright of all men, whether they live in a prosperous
developed state or an underdeveloped Third World state.
The idea that the people of Cuba should be compelled to
trade this birthright for subsidized medical care is appalling.
However, Castro continues to receive high praise from many
observers from non-Communist countries for his grandiose claims,
much the same way avant-guarde thinkers used to praise Adolf
Hitler and Benito Mussolini for "getting their countries moving
again." Perhaps before too long we will learn that Castro has
also made the trains run on time.
Endnotes
1. Fernando del Paso, writing in El Proceso, a Mexican
weekly magazine, 7 May 1984 pp. 36-39.
2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic
3. Many of these figures are taken from the study:
"Comparative Developments in the Caribbean," by Norman Luxenburg.
This particular figure is from the Latin America Statistical
Yearbook 1981, Chapter IV.
United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1962, Table 150
5. Ibid., 1960, Table 138 and Latin American Statistical
Yearbook 1977 p. 290
6. United Nations Statistical Yearbook 1961 Table 186
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7. Ibid., 1958 Table 176
8. Statistical Abstract for Latin America, 1977 Table 706
9. Ibid.
10. United Nations World Population Trends and Policies,
1977, Vol. I Table 75
11. Cuban Census of 1953, United Nations Statistical
Yearbooks
12. See Roland A. Alum, Jr. Wall Street Journal 13 April,
13. World Bank, World Bank Development Report 1983 Oxford
University Press, 1983
14. For 1952, "Tipologia Socioeconomica de los Paises
Latinoamericanos," Published as a special issue of the Revista
Interamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Vol. 2, OAS, Washington,
D.C. 1963. For 1981, ranking results from the World Development
Report 1983 estimates.
15. United Nations Statistical Analysis 1978 Table 167;
United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1979-80 Table 154
16. United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1962 Table 140, and
Ibid. 1978
17. United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1978 Table 215
18. Statistical Abstract of Latin America, 1977, p. 116, and
United Nations Statistical Yearbook 1978 Table 207
19. Statistical Abstract of Latin America, 1977
20. World Bank, World Development Report, 1983, Oxford
University Press, 1983.
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ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT: CUBA AND OTHERS SINCE 1959
Telephones 1958 1977
Cuba 170,000 321,000
Costa Rica 13,000 151,000
Dominican Rep. 19,000 127,000
Source: UN 1978 Table 167; UN 1979-80 Table 154
Passenger cars
Cuba
Costa Rica
Dominican Rep.
1958
159,000
15,000
10,000
1976 % rise
80,000 (50)
65,000 433
77,000
Source: UN 1978 Table ; UN 1962 Table 140
Televisions
1958
1977
% rise
Cuba
500,000
650,000
130
Costa Rica
7,000
155,000
2,214
Dominican Rep.
6,000
160,000
2,667
Source: UN 1978, Table 215
Life Expectancy
1960
1981
% rise
Cuba
63
73
16
Costa Rica
62
73
18
Dominican Rep.
51
62
Source: World Bank, World Development Report 1983
GNP per capita
1981
Average Annual Growth, 1960-81
Cuba
$1,400
- 0.6
- +0.5%
Costa Rica
1,430
3.0
Dominican Rep.
1,260
3.3
Source: World Bank, World Development Report 1983
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