DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE HANDBOOK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R001700240002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2008
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 15, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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DDI #06483-R4
15 November 1984
NOTE TO: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM Deputy Director for Intelligence
SUBJECT: Directorate of Intelligence Handbook
1. In looking at the attached very slick publications on
both the Agency and the Directorate of Intelligence, it occurred
to me a couple of months ago that one way we could improve our
dialogue with policymakers and, in particular, help them
understand what we can do for them would be to provide a
sophisticated handbook explaining the nature of the DI and its 25X1
components and walking them through how to make use of this
enormous asset. I asked Helene Roatner to pull together by
December (anticipating a number of new policymakers regardless of
who was elected) a really slick pamphlet on the Directorate along
the lines of the two attachments. She has done this and the
d r a f t t e x t i s a t t a c b e d. =]9-A- All t- CL,-A -f i s>... t~ ~s,? -P 4.4AA &m U 2. It is my hope that this kind of a pamphlet not only will.
demonstrate to policvmakers in yet another way our strong
interest in improving our dialogue with them and in being
helpful, but also will in fact he helpful. This is such a vast
organization and its structure so complicated to an outsider that
knowing lust where to plug in is very difficult. It is my hope
that this pamphlet will serve a useful purpose with policymakers
and I would anticipate delivering it to people at the Deputy
Assistant Secretary level and above. If you have any comments or
thoughts on the text (whi.ch will be supplemented by a number of
photographs and graphics) -- or on the concept as a whole -- I
would he interested in them. 25X1
Robert V- Gates
Attachments:
As Stated
SECRET Cl By Signer. Za23j
TW(`T. AAnu
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DDI #06483-84
15 November 1984
SUBJECT: Directorate of Intelligence Handbook
DDI/RMGates
DISTRIBUTION:
0 - DCI/DDCI
1 - ER
1 - DDI Registry
1 - DDI Chrono
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Introduction
Intelligence officers work to support policymakers like you
with facts and analysis about a wide variety of subjects on which
you must make important national decisions. But because we deal
with so many complex and diverse issues, our organizational
structure is complicated--and it may be difficult for you to find
out what kinds of help you can get from us or where you can go
for it. We hope that this brochure will bridge the gap by
describing CIA's analytical arm, the Directorate of Intelligence
(DI), where you can turn to supplement the resources your own
organization already offers.
Our People and Product
The DI is where all the information available to the US
Government on foreign affairs comes together, is analyzed, and is
turned into reports that address_the inter al interests of
policymakers. Our staff of about (pie charts
showing division of DI effort by geographic area and discipline)
works on literally all significant issues worldwide, using data
collected by the most sophisticated technical and clandestine
means as well as information from the State Department, our
attaches, and the vast array of open literature--media, books,
broadcasts, and so forth. With this large cadre, massive amount
of information, and concentration on supporting the intelligence'
needs of senior policy officials throughout the US Government, we
are in a position to respond quickly to urgent needs or to mount
a major research effort on a complex topic of longer term
concern.
In most of our analysis, we try to take a multidisciplinary
approach. That is, we deliberately mix persons with almost 50
different analytical specialties--for example, in politics,
economics, military affairs, and engineering--to consider major
intelligence questions. The goal is to ensure that we have
addressed all sides of the issue and to deliver a more complete
product.
The DI's production takes many forms (bar graph showing a
year's total production broken down into current intel,
typescripts, briefings, IAs, RPs, etc). Sometimes a brief
memorandum is generated within hours to meet a "short-fuse"
request on a specific topic of policy interest (give an example
of a policymaker's request, and what we produced); other studies
are lengthy and represent months of research. We give oral
briefings to a single policymaker or to a more general audience
upon request. DI analysts also serve within other government
departments, participate with US negotiating teams like those at
START and MBFR, and do "on-the-spot" analysis at US embassies.
And the DI's vast computer capacity and experience with
quantitative methodologies let us manipulate large amounts of
data that other Government agencies may be unable to exploit.
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You may be interested in the following specific examples of our
publications: (display samples)
-- the President's Daily Brief and the National Intelligence
Daily, which report and interpret foreign events and trends of
current interest.
-- periodicals like the International Economic and Energy
Weekly and the USSR Monthly Review.
-- concise ad hoc reports like those from our crisis task
forces, which often operate around-the-clock, or from our 24-hour
Operations Center.
biographic reports and psychological assessments of
foreign leaders and information on other foreign personalities.
-- basic data such as maps and reference aids.
-- research studies on a broad range of topics, some of
which are noted in the tabbed sections that follow.
Organization of the DI
The DI is composed of a number of subunits called Offices.
Some specialize in the'analysis of major countries like the USSR
or regions like East Asia. Other Offices concentrate on topics
that cross regional boundaries--such as terrorism, technology
transfer, political instability, and developments in science and
weapons production--or provide vital functions like imagery
analysis, biographic intelligence, and reference services. The
accompanying chart shows how we are organized. (uncomplicated
diagram)
Our Role in the Intelligence Community
DI analysts work with other intelligence analysts in a
variety of ways. Articles that appear in the National
Intelligence Daily are "coordinated" among working-level analysts
in what we call the Intelligence Community--the Executive
agencies which have intelligence functions--so that these items
reflect the views of the Community's principal members. Briefing
teams are often made up of analysts from several agencies, and
two or more agencies collaborate on specific papers. A good deal
of the research done on our behalf in the private sector is
funded in part by other agencies; the various. intelligence
organizations also collaborate on development of databases.
The DI also works with all Community members in a more
formal way through the National Intelligence Council (or NIC),
which is part of the staff of the Director of Central
Intelligence. The Council's members come from almost all
elements of the Intelligence Community, other agencies of the
Government, and the private sector. The NIC includes National
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Intelligence Officers (NIOs), who are responsible for guiding and
coordinating the Community's production on certain regions or
topics (chart), as well as a small staff of analysts.
Among their functions, the NIOs supervise the drafting of
National Intelligence Estimates, in-depth looks at key questions
which synthesize the views of all Community members (display a
few past estimates). DI officers are often principal drafters of
these papers. Many estimates are scheduled in advance; some
(like those on Soviet defense issues) are done annually. Others
are produced rapidly, on an ad hoc basis, in response to urgent
needs; they are called Special National Intelligence Estimates
(SNIEs). The NIOs also have a special responsibility for
"warning"--that is, alerting senior officials to new developments
that may pose a particular threat to US interests.
You can request an Intelligence Community assessment on any
topic of interest to the policy community by contacting the
appropriate NIO. DI analysts can give you a faster response if
you need one--but their views represent only the assessment of
CIA, not of the Community.
Dialogue with the Policymaker
The DI works first and foremost for the President, the other
members of the National Security Council, and the NSC staff. Its
services are available, however, to any US official with the
appropriate security clearances and a valid "need to know."
Meeting the intelligence requirements of policymakers is a
dynamic process because needs change as the situation develops
(use example of Iran-Iraq war to illustrate diferent kinds of
product we provide). The DI maintains contacts at all levels of
the policymaking community in an effort to ensure that it is
devoting attention to the issues and topics that matter most to
consumers. We also depend on policymakers to provide their own
unique insights (like those on personalities or personal and
government negotiating strategies). All this helps our analysts
"fine tune" the system to get information we know policymakers
need, both through CIA's own collection capabilities and from
other intelligence agencies.
The best way for us to make our analysis and research
responsive is to maintain a regular dialogue with you, including
your reactions--critical as well as favorable--to our assessments
and support. Please telephone us at the numbers on the attached
insert to share your concerns and needs.
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1. USSR
The Soviet Union will remain for the foreseeable future the most
formidable threat to the United States and to American interests
globally. The USSR's military plans and programs will continue
to challenge the US into the next decade. At the same time, the
potential for sudden changes in Soviet policies requiring a US
response will remain high.
The primary responsibility for our analytic effort on the
Soviet Union is located in the Office of Soviet Analysis, which
responds to most of the policymaker's questions on political,
economic, and military topics concerning the USSR. That office
works closely with photographic interpreters, biographic
analysts, weapon specialists, geographers, and science and
technology experts located elsewhere in the DI. In all, about
400 people in the DI work on Soviet-related issues, about half on
the USSR itself and the rest on military and scientific issues.
These resources provide us with a strong capability to
provide analysis in a variety of forms--short memoranda, oral and
written briefings, current intelligence items, background papers,
and in-depth assessments. Last year, for example, DI specialists
on the Soviet Union:
-- contributed almost one quarter of the information for the
DI's daily publications.
-- produced over 700 specially tailored typescript
memoranda, analytical assessments, and longer research papers
along with more than 600 biographic reports.
-- delivered more than 70 briefings to members of the
Executive Branch and Congressional committees.
Topics included:
-- internal politics, especially leadership issues and the
stresses of society, e.g., political succession, the leadership
apparatus, policy toward the consumer, and shifts in foreign
policy.
-- the economy, e.g, its performance, the burden of the
defense effort; the military-industrial complex and development
and modernization of defense industry; developments in various
economic sectors, especially energy and agriculture; and foreign
trade policy toward the West and Eastern Europe.
-- military and strategic trends, e.g., Soviet penetration
of and political and military influence in the Third World
(including military equipment deliveries, economic aid, and
advisors present); national security policy and relations with
the West; foreign covert activities; doctrine, plans, and forces
for strategic nuclear war and theater war; and Soviet foreign
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intelligence capabilities and their threat to Western interests.
developments in strategic weaponry and science and
technology, which are discussed more fully in another tabbed
section.
Especially important is our ability to respond on short
deadlines to requests from the policy community by producing
typescript memoranda tailored to the decisionmaker's individual
needs. In the past, for example, we have considered topics like
Soviet influence in the Third World, Moscow's attempts to exploit
differences between the US and its allies, and East-West
technology transfer. We are prepared to produce reliable and
timely intelligence for policymakers as a matter of course on
questions where sudden shifts in Soviet policy are particularly
likely--such as East-West trade, commercial relations with LDCs,
and Soviet military and strategic programs.
A special DI staff is also dedicated to providing in-depth
intelligence on arms control issues. And experienced DI officers
serve with US Government negotiating teams overseas (such as at
START and MBFR) to furnish on-the-spot information and policy
support.
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2. EUROPE
Policymakers' needs for intelligence about European affairs are
numerous and ever-changing, a reflection of the important role of
the trans-Atlantic relationship in the conduct of US foreign
policy. We are regularly asked to weigh how the interests and
policies of West European countries conflict with our own or
complement them. In Eastern Europe, the focus is on the gradual
reemergence of historical national interests that complicate the
political, economic, and military policies of the Soviet Union.
The Office of European Analysis is the center for the DI's
effort on Western and Eastern Europe, pulling together many
political, economic, and military analysts. Other specialists on
the region--photographic interpreters, biographic analysts, and
topical experts--work in other places in the DI. In all, about
150 people devote their attention to developments in Europe.
Last year, analysts on Europe provided some 20 percent of
the information for the DI's daily intelligence publications. In
addition, the DI published about 670 specially tailored
typescript memoranda, analytical assessments, and longer research
papers on Europe along with 2300 biographic reports. Members of
the Executive Branch and Congressional committees received some
450 briefings on the region.
Some of the analyses produced last year covered:
-- Western Europe's stagnating economic situation: support
for the London Economic Summit in June, including the issue of
protectionism; dimensions of the unemployment situation and
implications for growth prospects through the 1980s; Western
Europe's debt problems and how the EC is coping with a serious
budget crisis and with'enlarging its membership.
-- Western Europe's policies on defense cooperation and
security issues: issues played out in CDE; responses to
Washington's Strategic Defense Initiative; trends in West
European defense spending; moves toward defense cooperation by
France and West Germany.
-- counterterrorism in Western Europe: policies and
capabilities of the UK and Italy; the threat from Armenian
terrorists; the possibility of a resurgence of terrorism in
Turkey.
-- generational change in Western Europe: attitudes of
young voters and potential leaders; how social change is likely
to alter political parties in West Germany.
-- relations between Eastern and Western Europe: European
government policies after INF deployments began; German
nationalism and intra-German relations.
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-- the potential for change in Eastern Europe: roles played
by key groups--the use of the military in East Germany to promote
regional objectives, the political role of the Yugoslav military,
and the secular roles of the church in Poland.
-- the evolution of East Europe's financial crisis and its
adjustment efforts: the policies of individual countries,
particularly East Germany, Yugoslavia, and Poland; the burden of
adjustment on consumption and investment; the impact on growth
and balance of payments.
-- East European relations with the USSR: disagreements at
the CEMA summit and the politics of intra-German relations.
We tailor our production to suit the needs of policymakers
who are themselves experts in the complex substantive issues
involving the US and European countries, providing intelligence
in forms to serve their needs best: frequently in daily
intelligence publications or in quick typescript memoranda, in
formal assessments, and as in-depth research papers. Approaches
vary from sharp focus on a single country or on longer term,
regional perspectives such as British and French strategic force
modernization.
DI analysts also participate in intergovernmental groups
like those with State and Treasury Department officials which
discuss East European financial problems. In addition, the DI
supports US participants at the annual Economic Summits, where we
provide specially tailored daily intelligence summaries and give
substantive briefings directly to Summit participants.
(Suggested graphic: photo montage of briefers and covers of
papers used at June 1984 London Economic Summit.)
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3. AFRICA
Sub-Saharan Africa has become more important to US decisionmakers
because of the financial turmoil, political instability, and
meddling by the USSR, Cuba, and Libya in key states there. The
downward spiraling trend in most countries will sustain this
interest in the near term.
Most of the DI's full-time political, economic, and military
analysts working on sub-Saharan Africa are assigned to the Office
of African and Latin American Analysis. Others--like photographic
interpreters, biographic officers, weapons specialists, and
industrial and technological experts--are located elsewhere in
the Directorate. A total of about 30 people in the DI work on
sub-Saharan Africa.
With these capabilities, we can provide policymakers with
timely analyses of fastmoving events in the region; in-depth
assessments of particular issues and broader trends; briefing
books in support of foreign travel, high-level visits, and
ongoing negotiations; and general overviews and background
papers.
Last year, for example, in addition to contributing about
seven percent of the information for the DI's daily current
intelligence publications, analysts covering African issues:
-- delivered over 450 briefings to members of the Executive
Branch and Congressional committees.
-- produced some 200 specially tailored typescript
memoranda, analytical assessments, and longer research papers
plus about 600 biographic reports.
Issues of importance to US policymakers do not fall neatly
within country borders in Africa, where similar problems are
common to a'number of states. The Directorate's work on the
region thus focuses on both country prospects and regional
issues, such as:
-- South Africa and its role in the region, e.g., dynamics
affecting US relations with South Africa; export diversification;
South Africa's foreign policymaking process; regional diplomatic
negotiations and developments in states along Pretoria's borders.
-- political instability, e.g., dissident movements in the
Horn of Africa; tribal challenge in Somalia; Ethiopia's struggle
against separatists; prospects for the new Nigerian Government;
troubled times in Zimbabwe.
-- the regional economic situation, e.g., food crises;
Nigeria's oil wealth management; southern Africa's transportation
network; effects on US economic interests.
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-- foreign involvement, e.g., Soviet and Cuban activities in
Angola and Mozambique; Libyan influence in Upper Volta; Israel's
evolving role in Africa; the Libyan invasion of Chad; the
enduring relationship between France and the continent.
in-depth research on warning and instability, e.g., the
political and economic viability of a number of countries like
Mozambique, Liberia, Nigeria, and the Indian Ocean states.
Our production is keyed to dominant issues and principal
dynamics that are likely to condition US policy toward Africa
throughout the decade.
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4. LATIN AMERICA
The continuing, crisis in Central America, the economic distress
in Mexico, depressed conditions throughout the Caribbean, and a
significant military buildup in Cuba all assure that Middle
America and the Caribbean will receive close policy focus for
some time to come. South America--relatively quiet, stable, and
prosperous in recent years--also is now in a state of flux as a
result of mounting economic strains and political transitions in
a number of key countries.
The DI's effort on Latin America is centered in the Office
of African and Latin-American Analysis, which houses most full-
time political, economic, and military analysts working on the
region. Photographic interpreters, biographic analysts, weapons
specialists, and technical analysts researching this area are
located elsewhere in the DI. The DI has expanded its
capabilities on Latin America over the past year in order to
handle the virtually insatiable appetite for analysis, and now
some 100 people work full time on Latin America.
This allows us to provide timely analyses of fastbreaking
developments, in-depth assessments of specific issues and broader
trends, general overviews and background papers, and briefing
books in support of foreign travel, high-level visits, and
ongoing negotiations. Last year, for example, in addition to
contributing about 15 percent of the information for the DI's
daily'current intelligence publications, we:
-- produced 1050 biographic reports and over 500 specially
tailored typescript memoranda, analytical assessments, and longer
research papers.
-- delivered about 1500 briefings to members of the
Executive Branch and Congressional committees.
The Directorate's work on the region focused on both country
prospects and regional issues. Specific topics included:
-- the crisis in Central America: significant political
actors in El Salvador and Nicaragua, implications of insurgent
arms resupply; the insurgency in Nicaragua; the refugee dilemma;
the issue of death squads; Nicaraguan air defense capabilities.
-- the debt crisis and local economies, e.g., South America
struggling with debt; economic crisis in Central America; the
Mexican middle class; Brazil's efforts to stabilize; impact of
radical debt actions in Argentina; the Cartagena debt conference.
-- developments in Cuba, like Soviet military deliveries;
Cuban relations with Latin America; Havana's military inter-
vention capabilities in Central America; the Cuban factor in
Grenada.
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-- political instability and the return to democracy: for
example, the opposition movement in Chile; Communist and radical
leftist influence in Bolivia, prospects for new governments in
Jamaica, Brazil, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Panama; Peru's
conventional and counterinsurgency capabilities.
In the coming year, the US will regularly face policy
challenges in a large number of countries in the region where it
has a significant stake. While current support requirements will
continue to drive most of our efforts on Central America, we also
plan research on many key countries where political, economic,
and social uncertainties offer fertile ground for coups,
revolutionary change, and external meddling.
(Suggested graphics: Tables which show the level of Soviet and
Cuban military and personnel support to Central American
revolutionaries; a graph which shows the growing level of Latin
debt, the interest rate burden, or the amount, of money that Latin
countries have been forced to renegotiate in the last few years;
photography showing either Cuban facilities in Central America or
some captured weapons detailing Soviet involvement (from
State/Defense July 1984 background paper); a map showing some of
the standard weapons infiltration routes into Central America.)
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5. NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA
The volatile region of the Near East and South Asia, the arena
for two major conflicts and the ongoing crisis in Lebanon,
continues to be of significant concern to US policymakers.
Because of quickly unfolding developments, such as the attacks on
US personnel in Beirut, and the vital US economic and strategic
interests in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, DI production has
been heavy and has concentrated on current topics of immediate
policy interest.
The DI analytic effort on this area is centered in the
Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis (NESA), whose
officers who work exclusively on political, military, and
economic intelligence in the region. Analysts in the Offices of
Central Reference, Strategic and Weapons Research, Global Issues,
Soviet Analysis, and Imagery Analysis complement NESA's
efforts. They focus on key regional leaders, terrorism, nuclear
proliferation, energy, arms transfers, and narcotics
trafficking--which are covered in other tabs of this brochure--
and Moscow's influence and involvement in the region. Together,
over 100 people work on this region.
The DI's production of some 1600 articles on this region for
the daily publications last year reflects its importance to US
policy. During this same time, analysts also published about 700
formal intelligence assessments and typescript memoranda; 224
articles for NESA's weekly regional publication; and more than
150 articles for other periodicals. Analysts also presented
about 2000 oral briefings to members of the executive branch,
members of Congress and staff personnel, and representatives of
foreign governments. Major topics addressed included:
-- military and strategic trends: developments in the
continuing conflicts in Lebanon, Iran-Iraq, and Afghanistan;
internal security concerns in the Persian Gulf; developments in
Indian-Pakistani relations; military capabilities of the armed
forces in Iran and the Persian Gulf states; Iraq's use of
chemical weapons; prospects that Iran could close the Persian
Gulf; mining in the Red Sea.
-- internal political developments: the prospects for
Lebanon; Syrian political infighting; elections in Israel;
assessments of the regimes in Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Kuwait, South Yemen, and Bangladesh;
the opposition in Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, and India; prospects for
the government and resistance in Afghanistan; communal violence
in Sri Lanka.
-- economics: developments and prospects in Israel,
Lebanon, Afghanistan, Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and
India; Arab efforts to curtail trade with Iran; Indian and Iraqi
economic ties with the USSR; the effects of reduced oil prices
and foreign aid cutbacks in the oil-producing states.
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-- political-social trends: the impact of Islamic
"resurgence" on governments of the region; regime responses to
Islamic fundamentalist demands; population problems and political
stability; a demographic assessment of Lebanon.
-- terrorism: terrorist activities in Lebanon; Libyan and
Iranian support of terrorism; Indian support of Tamil insurgents
in Sri Lanka.
-- nuclear proliferation: developments in Pakistan's drive
to manufacture fissile material; assessments of key nuclear
decisionmakers in Pakistan and India; India's preparations of its
nuclear test site.
To complement the intelligence support we offer on fast-
breaking current topics, we plan to provide policymakers with
more assessments of developments that are likely to affect US
economic and strategic interests further into the future by
producing more prognostic intelligence assessments and basic
research papers.
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6. EAST ASIA
Its size, diversity, and economic dynamism make East Asia
important to a broad spectrum of US policymakers. Indeed, we
believe it will loom even larger in terms of US interests, and an
effort to enhance our analytic capabilities in this area is
already underway.
The core of our effort is located in the Office of East
Asian Analysis, which houses most of the full time political,
economic, and military analysts working on the region. They are
supported and complemented by photographic interpreters,
biographic analysts, weapons specialists, and industrial and
technological analysts located elsewhere in the DI. In all, some
100 people in the DI work on East Asia.
These assets allow us to provide timely analyses of
fastbreaking developments in Asia, in-depth investigations of
specific issues and broad trends, general overviews and
background papers as well as briefing books in support of foreign
travel, high-level visits, and ongoing negotiations.
Last year, for example, in addition to contributing about 10
percent of the information for the DI's daily intelligence
publications, we:
-- produced 1200 biographic reports and about 450 specially
tailored typescript memorandums, analytical assessments,
and longer research papers;
-- and delivered over numerous briefings to members of the
Executive Branch and Congressional committees.
Topics included:
-- technology, e.g., high technology ceramics in Japan; the
fifth generation computer program in Japan; Japan's nuclear fuel
cycle; China's efforts to acquire Western military technology;
Indonesia's efforts to climb the technology ladder.
-- military and strategic trends, e.g., the deployment of
strategic missiles in China; new weapons in the North Korean
military; China's policy toward Vietnam--tightening the screws.
-- politics and economics, especially trade and
international financial issues, e.g., party reform in China; the
implications of_a labor victory in New Zealand; a profile of the
ruling party in the Philippines; offshore oil exploration in
China; the politics and economics of Japan's defense industries;
South Korea's economic performance and outlook.
-- terrorism and narcotics trafficking (which are discussed
more fully in another tabbed section).
The broad range and quantity of our production is driven by
the breadth of US interests in an area as large and diverse as
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East Asia. We realize that the individual policymaker is too
busy to review much--let alone most--of our production, and we
make a special effort to tailor the distribution of our reports
to individual needs. In addition, we respond to specific
requests on short deadlines'by producing typescript memorandums
on any issue within our competence. Many policym-- military and
strategic trends, e.g., the deployment of strategic missiles in
China; new weapons in the North Korean military; China's policy
toward Vietnam--tightening the screws.
-- politics and economics, especially trade and
international financial issues, e.g., party reform in China; the
implications of a labor victory in New Zealand; a profile of the
ruling party in the Philippines; offshore oil exploration in
China; the politics and economics of Japan's defense industries;
South Korea's economic performance and outlook.
-- terrorism and narcotics trafficking (which are discussed
more fully in another tabbed section).
The broad range and quantity df our production is driven by
the breadth of US interests in an area as large and diverse as
East Asia. We realize that the individual policymaker is too
busy to review much--let alone most--of our production, and we
make a special effort to tailor the distribution of our reports
to individual needs. In addition, we respond to specific
requests on short deadlines by producing typescript memorandums
on any issue within our competence. Many policymakers find our
ability to assess key foreign officials as well as political and
security conditions of particular use when preparing to travel in
East Asia; we provide this service as a matter of course for the
President, Vice President, and other members of the Cabinet. A
number of DI officers are also assigned to various East Asian
posts, and they are prepared to provide traveling officials with
the latest intelligence information available.
(Suggested graphic: highlighted map showing countries in East
Asia with box below:
East Asia includes:
-- 29 countries.
-- 50% of the world's population.)
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7. TERRORISM/POLITICAL INSTABILITY/INSURGENCY
The threat to US interests from terrorism has intensified
significantly in recent years as terrorist attacks have become
more frequent and have struck at a broader array of civilian and
official targets. Terrorist groups have both splintered and
multiplied; and subversion, guerrilla warfare, and revolutionary
activity in the Third World is challenging the institutions and
policies of increasing numbers of countries friendly to the US.
The Office of Global Issues provides a focal point in the DI
for examining both the internal and international aspects of
terrorism and insurgency. Their work supplements that done in
the DI's regional offices on individual countries, and draws on a
variety of sensitive sources including imagery.
These analytical resources permit us to provide current
coverage of terrorist events and analysis of trends in the
formation and development of terrorist groups--their goals,
capabilities, international linkages, and bases of support. We
can also perform basic and often groundbreaking studies of how
political instability can foster terrorism and how insurgent
groups combine terrorist and guerrilla tactics. Increased
research is in progress on Soviet attempts to exploit discontent
and the connection between socioeconomic problems and the growth
of political violence. Our development of comprehensive,
computerized databases on terrorism and Communist activities is
expanding our capabilities.
We place a high priority on providing policymakers with
information and analysis that will help them to devise policies
to deter and counter terrorism. We focus on: which countries
are ripe for serious turmoil, revolution, or insurgency; the
significance of social change, internal and external opposition,
military attitudes, and regime weaknesses; the prospects for
insurgencies now underway; and the methods that can most
effectively counter instability and insurgency in specific
situations.
-- Every two weeks, we publish the Terrorism Review (which
concentrates on current events and trends ; and each quarter we
produce Indications of Political Instability in Key Countries
(which tabulates indicators of instability for 30 countries of
particular importance to US interests).
-- Over the last year, DI analysts following these subjects
authored almost 1100 articles for the daily intelligence
publications; produced over 540 special typescript memoranda,
analytical assessments, and longer research reports as well as
briefing policymakers in the Executive Branch and Congressional
committees.
Topics included:
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-- patterns in global terrorism, particularly state support
for international terrorism and Iran's role in spreading Islam
and terrorism.
-- rural population control in an insurgency (using
Guatemala and the Philippines as case studies to develop 14
points we use to analyze counterinsurgency).
-- research on political instability in key countries like
Yugoslavia, particularly warning signs of military coups.
-- Soviet and East European penetration of the Third World,
for example: Communist presence in the LDCs; Soviet and Cuban
active measures in Latin America (especially Mexico); and
Communist military and economic aid to non-Communist LDCs.
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8. STRATEGIC WEAPONS/S & T DEVELOPMENTS
Among the foreign scientific and technological developments that
can affect US security, the evolving capabilities of Soviet
weapons and space systems remain most important. But a number of
other new issues are emerging which require technical research.
These include high-technology programs in the West which could
affect US commercial or security interests, the technical
capabilities of advanced conventional weapons that are becoming
available around the world, and the military systems and
technologies of China.
To supplement the basic coverage of these topics that DI
regional offices provide on individual countries, the Offices of
Scientific and Weapons Research, Imagery Analysis, and Global
Issues employ highly skilled scientists and engineers as well as
a staff of photointerpretation specialists. Their mission is to
prevent "technological surprises" from confronting US
policymakers and military planners by anticipating scientific
advances, and to provide decisionmakers with the information they
need to formulate tactics, doctrine, and countermeasures as well
as long-term weapons procurement and development programs.
Last year, DI production ranged from some 250 articles for
daily intelligence publications and current assessments of
significant events, to almost 250 in-depth research papers and
typescript memoranda on specific weapons systems or scientific
developments. Some examples are:
-- the capabilities of Soviet weapons and space systems and
the threat they pose to the West, like directed energy weapons,
antisatellite weapons systems, command-and-control
communications, air defense countermeasures to Stealth
technology, and spaceborne nonacoustic antisubmarine warfare
sensors.
-- Soviet research in the sciences and strategic high
technologies--especially those with potential military
applications--like electro-optics, microelectronics, electronic
warfare, computers and software, genetic engineering, and high-
strength materials.
-- Western and Third-World high-technology programs that
could affect US commercial or security interests, such as
Japanese development of supercomputers, the French nuclear fuel
reprocessing program, and the potential that additional countries
will develop missile delivery systems, for example India and
Pakistan.
In all of its analysis, the DI depends on research contracts
with leading US firms that have scientific and technical
knowledge in these specialties.
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9. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS/FINANCE
The ongoing nature of LDC debt problems is having increasing
implications for Third World politics and stability, economic
development efforts, and US foreign policy. This and other
international finance and trade issues demand a pool of
specialized economic analysts who can examine developments in a
global rather than country-specific context. This effort comes
together in the Office of Global Issues, which has access to all-
source economic intelligence information that gives the DI unique
capabilities to provide effective policy support that complements
the in-depth work on individual countries and areas done in the
regional offices.
DI economists focus on worldwide monetary issues, the
stability of the international financial system and presures for
reform, trade flows and developments affecting multilateral trade
negotiations, commodity markets, and development issues in Third
World countries. Analysts bring the perspectives of the external
community to their work through regular interviews with inter-
national businessmen and commercial bank officers; attendance at
numerous worldwide conferences on international finance, trade,
and economic development; and sponsorship of conferences on
international financial techniques.
The Third World debt crisis has greatly increased demands
for current support on international financial issues. Analysts
have briefed the National Security Council, the President, and
the Cabinet on debt issues. Over the past year, policymakers
received sustained and timely economic intelligence in the
International Economic and Energy Weekly and through some 650
articles in the DI's daily intelligence publications, and about
470 analytical assessments, longer research reports, and
specially tailored typescript memoranda.
Topics included:
-- international borrowing and lending: outlook for
international debt strategy, LDC external debt trends, the impact
of radical debt action on Argentina.
-- international trade: composition of recent export and
import declines in key LDCs, exports from newly industrialized
countries, how devaluations assist trade improvements, proposals
for a new GATT negotiating round, East-West trading patterns.
-- economic development: how LDC export processing zones
stimulate Western investments.
-- world commodity markets: prospects for natural rubber,
grain, and rice; Soviet 1984 grain crop shortfalls and their
effects on the USSR's imports.
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10. INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES
The DI addresses a variety of security issues in a global as well
as a country-specific context. For example:
Foreign availability of advanced technologies and the
mechanisms and potential for technology loss to Communist
countries remain a major focus. The DI works closely with CIA's
clandestine collectors and other government agencies in an effort
to stem the flow of critical Western technologies to hostile
countries. We are also prepared to help policymakers confront
other emerging technology issues like US dependence on foreign
sources of technologies and the'potential that foreign countries
may use their technology to gain political/economic concessions
from the US; and prospects for military codevelopment with Japan
and NATO countries.
In response to increased interest in strategic narcotics in
the policymaking community and in Congress, we have expanded our
efforts to apply high-technology collection and analysis
techniques to the problems of drug production, trafficking, and
international money movement and laundering arising from
narcotics activity.
Our work on nuclear proliferation is designed to give the US
Government early warning of potential proliferators and to
identify key technologies and institutions that are susceptible
to US influence. This is particularly important as Third World
countries pass important milestones in their nuclear programs,
and as sales of unsafeguarded nuclear materials through the
nuclear gray market increase.
Production on arms transfers concentrates on the impact of
weapons shipments on larger issues of concern to the US
Government. We are focusing on the sale of munitions at the
subnational level, potentially one of the most dangerous aspects
of conventional weapons proliferation, and on Warsaw Pact
military transfers to the troubled regions of the Near East, sub-
Saharan Africa, and Central America.
The DI's analysts and technical specialists who study these and
related problems use a variety of sensitive sources, including
imagery, in their work. Last year, these officers gave numerous
briefings to policymakers and produced over 550 articles for
daily publications, special memoranda, analytical assessments,
and research papers. Topics included:
-- narcotics control in Pakistan, the international flow of
drug money, and corruption in Mexico's drug control programs.
-- assessments of foreign research and development of high
technology materials, technology issues for the 1980s, Japanese
fiber optic developments, West European capability for advanced
jet engines.
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-- Sino-Japanese nuclear cooperation, South Africa and the
nonproliferation regime, Argentine nuclear policy, and the gray
market in nuclear materials.
-- gray arms market scams, prospects for West European arms
sales, the shrinking export market for jet combat aircraft, and
East European involvement in the international gray arms market.
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11 OTHER CROSS-NATIONAL ISSUES
The United States faces a growing number of foreign
industrial competitors like Japan, Western Europe, and selected
developing countries in a number of high technology as well as
mature industries. Declining US shares of world markets for
certain trade-sensitive industries (for example, steel and autos)
point up the potentially serious economic implications of this
increased foreign competition.
The changing international energy market poses both problems
and opportunities for the US and its allies during the remainder
of this century. The concentration of oil reserves and critical
oil facilities in the Middle East heightens the risk of an energy
disruption and increases the importance of alternative supplies
and consuming policies to cope with a shortfall. Also, surplus
productive capacity outside the Gulf, as well as gas resources,
OPEC's expanding role, and electricity trade continue to be high
priority issues for policymakers.
The conflicts and strains inherent in growing population
pressures and the limitations on available resources in many LDCs
are likely to affect the stability of these countries and their
economic prospects. Urbanization, refugee movements, food
availability on a global basis, and critical regional water
supply problems are issues that trouble many policymakers. More
traditional concerns such as politically sensitive boundary
disputes, transportation questions, and agriculture pl roduction--
especially in the USSR and Eastern Europe--will continue to
require policymaker attention.
The DI's functional specialists on these cross-national issues
work closely with its country analysts and imagery specialists.
Last year, the Directorate produced over 950 current articles,
specially tailored typescript memoranda, maps and charts,
analytical assessments and longer research reports; and delivered
a number of briefings to members of the Executive Branch and
Congressional committees. Topics included:
-- competitive factors like implications of foreign
accounting practices on assessing industrial capabilities, and
trends in Japanese targeting of high-technology industries.
-- industrial analysis, such as trends in US dependence on
foreign machine tool suppliers, shrinking excess capacity in the
world steel market, and competition for commercial space
services.
-- energy markets: vulnerabilities in the 1980s, growing
Soviet opportunities in natural gas markets, political and
economic dimensions of the world oil situation, and the changing
international coal market.
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-- petroleum resources such as production reserve prospects
for China's Daquing oilfield, and Nigeria's threat to OPEC unity.
energy security, for example the vulnerability of the
West European electric power grid, transport routes in the
Caribbean, and the availability of capacity and oil stocks to
offset a disruption.
- agriculture: the effect of drought on Soviet grain
prospects; Kampuchea's rice crop; an assessment of Afghanistan
grain.
-- population, resources and politics in the Third World;
and Lebanon's demographic characteristics.
-- food and water: Ethiopian drought, Jordan's water
shortage, Kenya's drought and the food shortage.
-- geography: perspectives on Mexico's strategic southeast,
Salvadoran-Honduran border problems; alleged Israeli boundary
changes in south Lebanon.
-- transportation, including Cuba's expending civil aviation
web, Soviet merchant fleet liner operations, implications of
improving Soviet grain port capacity.
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