NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 22 JUNE 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010103-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 26, 2008
• Sequence Number: 103
• Publication Date: June 22, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Intallinence
OCPAS/CIG
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
22 June 1983
DIA review
completed.
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22 June
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Contents
PLO: Pressure on Arafat Increasing ........................................ 3
China: Results of National People's Congress ........................ 4
USSR: Grain Crop Prospects .................................................. 9
zechoslovakia: High-Level Personnel Chances .................. 9
Mauritius: Elections Scheduled .............................................. .12
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22 June 1983
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PLO: Pressure on Arafat Increasing
The armed intervention of a pro-Syrian PLO guerrilla group on the
side of Fatah rebels in recent days and PLO chief Arafat's public
accusation of Syrian involvement in the clashes have narrowed the
chances of an early political solution to the rebellion
Arafat yesterday publicly accused Syria of using its tanks on the
side of the dissidents. The Palestinian news agency said he had sent
messaaes to Arab heads of state asking them to restrain the Syrians.
Other Fatah leaders, after two days of meetings in Damascus,
also are taking a tough line against direct negotiations with the rebels.
At the same time, however, they have not ruled out meeting some of
their demands. Fatah military commander Khalil Wazir said yesterday
that mediation efforts were deadlocked but that Fatah had appointed
several committees to consider reforms
Comment:
Syria and the Fatah rebels have delivered a warning to Arafat that he
has to bargain seriously with the dissidents or risk wider fighting.
Arafat's public challenge to President Assad, however, suggests he is
willing to take that chance. He probably hopes that Arab pressure on
the Syrians to cease their support of the dissidents will allow him to
preserve his position without making major concessions
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CHINA: Results of National People's Congress
The first annual session of the Sixth National People's Congress
closed yesterday after ratifying party-mandated personnel moves and
establishing a new Ministry for State Security.
The congress produced no surprises and adjourned on schedule.
China's new President and the congress's Standing Committee
chairman both delivered closing addresses, repeating the themes of
progress, stability, and moderation that characterized the session
The conclave named two additional vice premiers and replaced
six ministers, including the economic planning chief. In addition, the
members of the government's new nine-man Central Ministry
Commission were named.
Comment: The two new vice premiers symbolize the intention of
Deng Xiaoping and his reformist allies to rejuvenate the bureaucracy.
They have strong economic backgrounds and are unusually young-
both are in their midfifties-for such high office.
Most of the members of the Central Military Commission are
associated with military reforms that have been opposed by
conservative elements in the party and Army. Deng, who heads the
new Commission, may see it as a tool for circumventing this
opposition and improving the execution of his policies.
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CHILE: Pinochet Confronts Labor
The opposition's call for a national strike tomorrow-the first in
10 years-resulted in numerous arrests yesterday of organizers.
Concurrently, President Pinochet made a concession by allowing
several prominent political figures to return to Chile, which had been
demanded by the National Workers' Command. The principal
organizer of the strike is charged with attempting to overthrow the
Comment: Pinochet believes that divisions in the labor
movement can be intensified by severely punishing strikers while
rewarding potential supporters by follo
concessions he announced last Friday.
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Areas Hardest Hit by Hot Dry Winds
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22 June 1983
The United Statea Government has not recognized
r of Estonia. Lalvia. end Lithuania
t he. incorpo t
into the Soviet Union, Other boendany representehop
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USSR: Grain Crop Prospects
grain
prospects in the USSR have deteriorated in recent weeks. Areas that
produce about 15 percent of the grain crop were hit intermittently
with hot, dry winds during late May and early June, reducing potential
yields of both winter and spring grains. In addition, the Central
Statistical Administration reports that spring planting in the regions
east of the Ural Mountains lagged seven to 10 days behind the
average of recent years.
Comment: Crop losses caused by the adverse weather
conditions may total about 10 million tons. An additional 2-3 million
tons probably have been lost because planting delays have reduced
the areas sown. Despite these setbacks, however, an above-average
crop of 205-210 million tons is still possible if the weather is excellent
throughout the remainder of the season. Although a crop of this size
would fall far short of the target of 238 million tons for this year, it
would be well above the estimated annual output of 185 million tons
over the last five years.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA: High-Level Personnel Changes
Ministerial changes made after the Central Committee plenum
last week portend no radical policy shifts but could have implications
for future changes in the leadership. Interior Minister Obzina, rumored
in recent months to be in line to succeed ailing Premier Strougal, has
been appointed Deputy Premier and also will be the new Minister of
Technical and Investment Development. Vratislav Vajnar, director of
party leader Husak's secretariat, replaces Obzina as Minister of
Interior. The Ministers of Agriculture and Labor also have been
replaced.
Comment: The choice of Obzina to oversee the government's
expanded effort to introduce technological innovation into the
economy, the major subject of the plenum, reflects the importance
the leadership attaches to this program. The increased exposure he is
likely to acquire could improve his prospects for eventual promotion.
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9 22 June 1983
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Prime Minister Jugnauth has dissolved parliament and set new
elections for 21 August. To contest the elections, Jugnauth has forged
a fragile coalition built around his own leftist party and that of centrist
former Prime Minister Ramgoolam. The coalition will be opposed by
the leftist Mauritian Militant Movement. The group is led by former
Finance Minister Berenger, whose resignation from the government
last March forced the new elections
Comment: Ethnic and personality factors will outweigh
ideological considerations in the election, which promises to be
extremely close.
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12 22 June 1983
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