ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140035-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2008
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: October 11, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Economic Intelligence Weekly
On file Department of Agriculture
release instructions apply.
02 Secret
State Dept. review completed
CIA No. 7620/73
11 October 1973
ri :~
Copy No. 4 3
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International Monetary Developments
Effect of the Arab-Israeli War on Oil Supplies The Arab-Israeli war
has not resulted in politically motivated oil cutbacks btut is already
affecting oil exports.
Brazil Seeks Closer Ties with the Arab World Brazil is trying to
secure its vital oil imports and attract Arab capital. 4
France: Economic Situation and Outlook Maintaining rapid growth
remains France's top economic priority, despite soaring prices and
wages.
Continuing Rapid Expansion of Mexican Border Industries The
firms' net exports to the United States will increase nearly 50% in
1973.
Worldwide Food Developments
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Activity
Note: Comments and queries on the contents of this publication are welc:omcd.
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Notes
International Monetary Developments
The dollar remained steady on foreign exchange markets this week,
but the Middle Easy crisis pushed the price of gold back above $ 100 an
ounce. The recent calm in currency markets has encouraged some West
European governments to reduce capital controls imposed during recent
currency crises to counter speculative flows. Both the Swiss and the Belgians
removed negative interest rates on foreign-held deposits; the French
eliminated restrictions on franc borrowing by foreigners. Tight money
conditions in the. Netherlands have pushed the recently revalued guilder
past the mark to the top of the band.
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A group of young Chilean economists, mostly trained at the University
of Chicago, is attempting to influence the new regime's economic recovery
program. They have proposed a program to promote a market economy,
to decentralize public enterprises, and to reduce the role of the central
government in the economy. These advisers have called for devaluation of
the peso, reduction of tariffs to an average of 30%, promotion of traditional
exports, and self-sufficiency of public enterprises. Such a program probably
would qualify Chile for IMF credits, but the prospects are for only gradual
adoption
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Dependence on Arab Oil
Million Barrels per Day
Imports from Arab
,Total Consumption total imports Countries
United States
Canada'
Japan
Western Europe
17.0
6.4
2.11
1.8
1.0
0.4
5.6
5.6
2.8
15.7
111,22
10.8
1. lncluding:l.1 million b/d of crude oil plus nearly 1 million b/d.of products refined from Arab'
oil from refineries in the Caribbean, Weston. Europe, and Eastern' Canada.
2. imports exceed consumption because of exports of refined products to non-European consumers.
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Effect of the Arab-Israeli War on Oil Supplies
The Arab-Israeli war has not yet resulted in politically motivated
cutbacks in oil exports. Even Qadhafi shows no signs of reducing oil
shipments. Egypt and Syria are avoiding threats against the West
Kuwait has called for an urgent meeting of Arab oil ministers to discuss
oil in the current situation. Some Western oil men speculate that the Kuwaiti
initiative is a preemptive maneuver designed to keep control of any such
meeting in the hands of Arab moderates.
The war is affecting oil exports, however. The terminal at Baniyas,
Syria, with a capacity of 700,000 b/d has been closed, presumably for fear
of damage to tankers, and the volume of oil delivered to the Tapline terminal
at Sidon has been reduced by half for a total reduction of 900,000 b/d.
Almost all of the oil from these sources goes to Western Europe, which has
thereby lost some 6% of its supplies. Oil is flowing normally through the IPC
terminal at Tripoli.
We believe that exports of crude oil to Western Europe via the
Trans-Israeli Pipeline - some 350,000 b/d have been halted because of
unwillingness of tankers to enter the war zone and Israel's desire to maintain
a high level of oil stocks. Although alternative supplies are available in the
Persian Gulf, the current tanker shortage will delay liftings and cause
shortages in Italy and other Mediterranean states.
If the war is prolonged and especially if the Arab forces suffer sharp
defeats, an anti-US or anti-Western embargo will become increasingly likely.
The United Statcs now depends directly or indirectly on Arab sources for
about one-third of its oil imports and 12% of consumption. European
exports of refined product to the United States, especially those from Italy,
almost certainly would be curtailed if the war continui:;d for several weeks.
Curtailment could come sooner if the Europeans come to believe that their
crude supplies will be further interrupted.
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S I?.C R E'1'
Brasilia is developing closer ties with the Arab world in an effort to
assure adequate oil imports, obtain financing for major Brazilian investment,
and increase exports to Arab countries. It recently exchanged ambassadors
with Iraq for the first time and is preparing to send its first ambassador
to Saudi Arabia. At the same time, relations with Israel are being handled
with great caution. Last month, Brasilia canceled a luncheon planned
between the departing Israeli Ambassador and Ernesto Geisel, then head
of the state petroleum monopoly and slated to become president next
March.
Brazil relies on the Arabs, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iraq, for about
two-thirds of its petroleum requirements. Because it foresees an extended
worldwide oil shortage and is becoming increasingly dependent upon
petroleum imports, Brazil has negotiated concessions for oil exploration and
development in Egypt, Iraq, and Algeria. The Iraqi concession will permit
purchase at preferential prices up to 21% of any oil discovered, and the
other agreements probably grant Brazil similar rights. Brazil is also seeking
or has negotiated other exploration agreements in South America and in
sub-Saharan Africa.
Brazil has signed or is negotiating long-term oil supply contracts with
a number of countries. To reduce the pressure on the balance of payments,
the government is tying some of these agreements with Arab countries to
purchases of Brazilian goods. The Arabs also have taken some initiative
in arranging barter deals and are organizing seminars for Brazil's business
and government leaders.
Brazil is also seeking Arab money to help finant;e economic
development and is interested in establishing new financial institutions.
- Brasilia has been negotiating with Arab and European interests to establish
a bank to channel investment funds into Brazil. Brazil has also tried to
interest several Arab countries in financing part of its $2 billion
hydroelectric project at Itaipu.
4
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The French economy is surging ahead, maintaining the lead it has had
in West European economic growth for more than a decade. Spurred by
a sharp first quarter advance, real growth in gross domestic product is
expected to reach 6.6% this year. Industrial production grew at a 13% annual
rate during the first quarter but then leveled off, partly because of an auto
workers' strike.
A slackening of growth may already have occurred because the
economy is running up against its productive limits. Utilization of industrial
capacity has already reached 97% - several points higher than in any other
EC country. Expansion of capacity lagged in 1972, as businessmen
underestimated their prospects. Although investment spending has picked
up rapidly this year and should continue strong well into 1974, economic
growth is likely to recede next year to about the long-term average of 5.5%.
France: real growth
of gross domestic product
France: index of hourly wages
in manufacturing and consumer prices'
1070 71 72 73
'Bno~ On roliond tmnnt,
Accelerating inflation remains a major concern for the Pompidou
government, but fears of inhibiting economic growth have kept it from
adopting strong countermeasures. At the end of 1972 the government
reduced value-added tax rates to check rising consumer prices. Prices rose
only 1% in the first quarter of 1973, but since have been increasing at
a 10% annual rate. Rapidly rising wages, capacity limitations, and earlier
large increases in the money supply are the main factors underlying the
inflation. Higher raw material costs have accounted for only about one-tenth
of recent price increases.
The government has been relying mainly or, monetary policy to combat
inflation - so far with little apparent effect. The monetary authorities have
gradually slowed the growth of the money supply during the past 12
months. Fiscal policy remains neutral, as the government continues to
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balance the budget. Although wage and price controls have been condemned
until quite recently, Pompidou stated last month that they could not be
ruled out if rapid inflation continues.
In the absence
of stronger monetary and fiscal measures or a moderation of wage demands,
the official forecast of a decline in the inflation rate to 7?%n in 1974 is
unlikely to be realized.
France: Balance of Payments
1973
1974
1971
1972
Projected
Projected
Trade balance (f.o.b./
f.o.b.)
1,174
1,275
1,375
1,550
Services and private
transfers
-199
-349
-450
-575
Official transfers
-416
-642
-500
-550
Current account balance
559
284
425
425
Long-term capital
3
-656
-575
-650
Basic balance
562
-372
-150
-225
The government is faced with both skyrocketing wages and a recent
spurt in unemployment. Average wage gains this year will approach the
15% level recorded in the strife-torn year of 1968. The number of
unemployed, which leveled off last year after edging upward for a decade,
jumped to 410,000 in August -- the highest level in the past 20 years and
about 2% of the labor force.
Foreign trade is booming, with exports and imports during the first
eight months of 1973 both up by 13% in volume and 39% in dollar value
over the same period of 1972. Since the Smithsonian agreement, the franc
has experienced a trade-weighted revaluation of only 1.4% and thus has
retained most of the competitive edge achieved by the 1969 devaluation.
While the overall trade surplus rose to $810 million in January-August 1973
from $610 million a year earlier, the trade deficit with the United States
increased sharply, reflecting mainly large increases in the volume and price
of imported soybeans and fecdgrains. According to French data, the trade
deficit with the United States in the first half of the year reached $750
million. During the same period, the deficit with West Germany - France's
only other large bilateral deficit - also increased, to nearly $500 million.
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Good trade performance is sustaining Fra ^e's current account surplus
despite weakening net earnings from services and larger transfer payments.
Interest and dividend payments have increased, and private transfers by
means of foreign workers' remittances - now about $1 billion annually --
continue to rise gradually. Meanwhile, with government encouragement, the
long-term capital outflow has grown from practically nothing in 1971 to
about $600 million annually in 1972-73, putting the basic balance into
deficit and strengthening French resolve to maintain a sizable trade surplus
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Continuing Rapid Expansion of Mexican Border Industries
Firms operating under Mexico's border industry program are heading
toward new employment and export records this year. Employment
in?,reased by 18%, to 58,000 persons, during the first half of 1973. Exports
to the United States, net of imports of US-made components, probably
will reach about $250 million this year - an advance of nearly 50% over
1972.
Border industry firms - mostly American owned -- produce various
articles from US components, selling them mainly to the United States,
subject to duties on only the value added. The low labor costs also arc
permitting some products to be exported to other foreign markets. US
companies recently have sold television tuners to Japan, color television
sets to Venezuela, and chain saws to Europe, all made from US components
assembled in Mexico.
Since the beginning of 1973, the number of plants has grown from
366 to 426. Some have been located in the interior since the border
industries program was extended throughout Mexico last October. Nearness
to the US market, low-cost labor, and recent currency realignments have
stirred interest in plant operations among non-US companies. To supply
their US operations, the Japanese have established a small electronic
assembly plant this year - their second plant in the border industry. Several
groups of West German and Italian businessmen recently visited Mexico
and expressed interest in the program.
The Mexican government strongly backs the program and has greatly
simplified regulations for participating firms in recent months. Moreover,
in the first ruling under the new Foreign Invests lent Law to limit foreign
ownership, the government exempted border industry firms except cotton
textile firms.
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S I?"(-AI II'I'
Worldwide Food Developments
USSR
At. !lnprecedented grain harvest has eased pressures on the USSR to
import more grain. Even if the recent Soviet bid fcr 3-1 /2 million tons
of grain from Canada and Australia is accepted, total grain imports I'or
FY 1974, including the undelivered purchases from last year, will reach
only about 15 million tons, substantially below the 24 million tons last
year.
A record Soviet grain harvest is now expected. A USDA task force
recently forecast the Soviet gross harvest at 195 million tons while a Soviet
foreign trade official has cited an estimate of 192 million t ns. In light
of' reported yields thus far, however, these predictions appear too
pessimistic. CIA estimates a gross harvest of more than 205 million tons;
this is equivalent to 165 million tons of usable grain.
the policy flexibility provided by this year's harvest.
The bumper harvest and the planned imports should allow the Soviets
to rebuild stocks and export some grain to non-Communist states. The
recent agreement to lend 2 million tons of wheat and rice to India illustrates
slightly better this year than last.
Jakarta wants to import an additional 300,000 tons of rice, preferably
under PL-480, but it probably can get by with the 1.4 million tons scheduled
to arrive in the crop year ending March 1974. The crop promises to be
On 8 October, Brasilia banned the export of soybeans and soybean
products to assure domestic supplies in the face of heavy foreign demand.
The ban probably will continue until the new crop begins to be harvested
next March. By early October, Brazil probably had sold close to 3.5 million
tons, compared with 2.8 million tons in all of 1972. These exports had
begun to encroach on domestic consumption, including seed requirements
for the 1974 crop, which is expected to reach about 7.0 million tons,
compared with 4.8 million tons in 1973. Shortages already have appeared
and some farmers are being forced to purchase poor-quality seed.
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 GNP"
Constant Market Prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
RETAIL SALES'
Current Prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Euro-Dollars
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73 II
73 II
73 II
73 I
73 II
73 I
73 II
11 Oct 73
Percent change
Latest from Previous
Quarter Quarter
0.0
1.4
3,3
0,7
0.0
0.0
Percent Change
Latest tram Previous
Month Month
Aug 73
Aug 73
Jun 73
Jun 73
Jul 73
Jun 73
Jul 73
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Month Month
Aug 73
May 73
Aug 73
May 73
Jul 73
Fab 73
Jul 73
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
0.4
1.1
- 2.11
-1.5
-0.7
-1.0
0.1
10711
5.1
9.1
3.9
0.1
4.0
3.1
9,1
1910
8.0
8.9
3.7
7.1
3.9
2.9
8.9
1970
11.8
11.9
9.0
5.3
11.2
11.5
11.3
Representative Rates
Prime finance paper
Call money
Interbank loans (3 Months)
Call money
Local authority deposits
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
1 Year
Earlier
0.3
13:0
7.2
5.1
D.5
5.2
0.8
Average Annual
Growth Hale Since
1 Year
Earlier
10.6
17.2
8.7
8.9
8.2
10.2
10.7
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
I Year
Earlier
12.4
21.3
4.2
13.4
12.2
18.8
1.7
Previous
Quarter
2.3
5.0
-4.2
13.0
2.7
3,4
3.7
3 Months
Earlier''
9.4
8.4
0.8
1.4
0.8
26.6
7.1
3 Months
Earlier"
6.9
25.4
0
4.2
0
14.0
1.5
1 Year
Latest Date Earlier
Oct 5 8.25 5.00
Sep 28 9.00 4.25
Oct 5 14.38 0.38
Sep 28 11.75 5.00
,ep 28 13.38 4.43
Oct 5 8.75 5.13
Oct 5 10.69 6.00
WHOLESAi.E PRICES
Industrial
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdr
Italy
Canada
3 Months
Earlier
7.63
8.75
14.25
8.50
6.32
7.25
9.81
I Month
Earlier
9.13
7.50
14.25
9.38
14.25
8.50
11.06
Percent Change
Latest train Previous
Sep 73
Aug 73
Aug 73
Jul 73
Aug 73
Jun 73
Jul 73
1070
4.9
5.2
4.9
0.7
7.1
7,5
0.3
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Month Month 197.
Sep 13 -0.3 7.2
Jun 73 0.8 18.7
Jul 73 -1.7 9.8
Apr 73 2.6 13.3
Jul 73 2.3 12.2
Apr 73 2.8 20.4
Aug 73 1.5 13.9
Average Ann,....
Growth note Since
I Year
Earlier
7.9
17.4
7.0
14.9
7.1
10.2
19.2
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest tram Previous I Year
Month Month 1970 Earlier
Aug 73 1.8 4.9 7.5
Jul 73 0.7 7.3 11.9
Aug 73 -0.1 5.8 7.2
Aug 73 0.7 0.3 7.8
Jul 73 0.4 8.5 9.4
Jul 73 0.8 7.2 11.8
Aug 73 r 1.3 5.4 8.3
Average Annual
Growth Rite Since
I Year
Earlier
5.3
29.9
4.8
14.1
13.0
19.1
15.5
"Seasonally adjusted.
"Average for latest 3 months compared
with average for previous 3 months.
3 Months
Earlier
3.0
23.4
7.4
13.9
13.3
23.2
25.5
3 Months
Earlier
11.4
11.0
2.5
0.4
7.0
12.6
13.0
3 Months
Earlier
5.5
29.8
-13.9
2.6
13.6
13.7
14.6
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 EXPORTS'
f,o,h.
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORTS`
f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
TRADE BALANCE`
f.o.b./f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Current and Long?Term-Capital Transactions
Latest Period Cumulative (Million US $)
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
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EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Million US $
Million US S 1073 1972
Aug 73 0,004 44,102 31,002
Aug 73 2,800 22,032 17,700
Aug 73 0,004 42,002 30,100
Aug 73 3,200 23,501 16,900
Aug 73 2,522 18,039 14,742
Jun 73 1,937 9.479 8,808
Jul 73 2,075 13,918 11,252
Million US $
Million US $ 1073 1972
Aug 73 0,020 44,801 38,074
Aug 73 2,922 19,420 11,818
Aug 73 4,794 32,810 24,826
Aug 73 3,190 22,088 16,300
Aug 73 3,010 21,417 15,621
Jun 73 2,212 10,720 8,092
Jul 73 1,949 12,977 10,010
Million US $ 1971
Aug 73 -16 -719
Aug 73 -42 3,202
Aug 73 1,890 9,792
Aug 73 12 812
Aug 73 -488 -2,778
Jun 73 -275 -1,241
Jul 73 126 941
1972
-4.382
5.882
5,540
608
-879
776
635
Million US $ 1973 1972
7311 -800 -1,700 -5,700
Aug 73 -770 -5.926 1,2571
Jul 73 136 1,005 3,593
731 -576 -570 '524
731 -995 -995 -440
72 IV 800 NA. 2.983
731 -272 -272 -117
End of Billion U5 $ Jun 1970
Aug 731 14.0 18.3
Sep 72 14.8 4.1
Aug 7J 37.9 8.8
Aug 73 10.3 4.4
Aug 71 8.5 2.8
Jun 73 6.0 4.7
Sep 73 65 4.3
1 Year
Earlier
13.1
16.5
24.6
10.0
6.1
6.4
8.2
Seasonally adjusted.
''Converted into US. dollars at current market rates of exchange,
11 Oct 77
Percent
Cha.nua
39.3
27,9
41.2
39.0
20.4
0.9
23.7
Change
4,000
-7,193
-1,988
-52
-549
NA.
-155
3 Months.
Earlier
14.0
15.2
32.2
11.0
6.7
6.3
6.0
Percent
Change
24.4
64.4
33.2
39.2
37.1
32.5
22.2
Change
3.663
-2,880
4,252
204
-1,899
-2.017
305
EXPORT PRICES
tf5$
'hlitod States
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency Average Annual
Growth note Since
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Japan(Yen)
West Germany (Martls)che
France (Franc)
United Kingdom (Pound
Italy (Lira)
Canada (Dollar)
Aug 73
Jun 73
Jul 73
May73
Aug 73
Apr 73
Jun 73
Percent Change
Latest from Prevlous
Mouth Month
Aug 731 3.9
Jun 73
Jui 73
May 73
Aug 73
Apr 73
Jun 73
Jun 73
Jul 73
May 73
Aug 73
Apr 73
Jun 73
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 5 Oct 73
Percent Change
Latest (rain Previous
Month Month
Aug 731 2.1 I
US $
Per Unit
0.0038
0.4144
0.2356
2.4131
0.0018
0.9930
Percent Change
Latest train Previous
3.0
1.1
12.1
0.1
0.0
0.9
-0.0
1.2
3.1
-2.3
2.0
2.8
-0.5
0.7
-1.9
2.2
4.0
3.3
1.1
Dec 60
36.21
84.84
16.69
-13.53
10.56
7.65
1970
0.4
11.5
17.1
11.8
10.5
P.2
5.5
1970
8.4
0.9
1.0
3.7
9.2
5.7
4.2
1970
10.6
0
- 0.5
4.0
13.3
8.5
4.8
I Year
Earlier
22.5
4.3
0.7
3.5
19.8
10.4
12.0
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
I Year
Earlier
20.6
4.9
2.0
7.7
34.1
16.7
10.0
I a Dec
1971
15.74
33.55
19.65
-7.39
2.91
-0.48
19 Mar
1973
-1.18
17.03
6.90
-1.95
0
-0.47
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES"'
Average Annual
Growth note Since
I Your
Earlier
22.5
19.9
34.7
10.0
12.3
9.8
10.4
3 Months
Earlier
35.7
32.0
117.0
27.1
11.5
24.7
11.0
3 Months
Earlier
35.7
26.7
5.7
-4.5
18.6
28.0
11.8
3 Months
Earlier
19.2
18.7
-.9'.2
29.3
42.8
49.2
13.4
28 Sep
1973
-0.19
0.05
0
-Negl.
-0.28
-0.20
18 Dec 19 Mar 28 Sep
Dec 86 1971 1973 1973
United States -19.08 -9.52 -2.74 0.07
Japan 22.68 8.67 -3.38 -0.19
West Germany 32.10 15.02 9.97 -0.06
France -11.86 1.38 -1.08 -0.02
United Kingdom -36.41 -22.09 -7.63 -0.08
Italy -16.55 -15.35 -8.52 -0.36
Canada 3.71 -2.82 -1.17 -0.20
"'Weighting to based on each listed country's trade with 18 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive Impact of exchange-rate variation;
among the major currencies.
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The Economic Indicators provide up-to-date information on charges
in the domestic and external economic activities 01, the major
non-Communist developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic
Indicators are updated from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that
the results are made available to the reader weeks - or sometimes months -
before receipt of official statistical publications.
The attached Notes provide basic information on sources, coverage,
and adjustments for the series included in the Economic Indicators. As series
are changed from time to time, explanatory notes will be included.
Comments and queries regarding the Economic Indicators are
welcomed. They may be directed to th.e Office of Economic
Researcl
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Specific Series Used
GNP at constant market prices
(quarterly, seasonally adjusted)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Industrial production
(seasonally adjusted)
United States
Japan
West Germany
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Retail sales at current prices
(seasonally adjusted)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
GNP at constant 1958 market prices
Expenditures on GNP at constant 1965 market
prices
;NP at constant 1962 market prices
Cross internal product (excludes property in-
come from abroad and the value of services
of government workers and domestic servants)
GDP at constant 1963 market prices
GNP at constant 1963 market prices
GNP at constant I t/61 market prices
Index of industrial production, manufacturing
Index of industrial production, all industries
Index of industrial production, excluding con-
struction
Index of industrial production, excluding con-
struction and public works
Index of industrial production, all nmanufac-
turing industries
index of industrial production, total
Index of industrial production, total
Estimated value of sales by all retail stores
Index of retail salesi
Value of retail turnover
Index of sales by large and small stores
Index of total value of retail sales, excluding
motor vehicles
Index of retail sales by department stores,
including cooperatives
Value of retail sales, all provinces
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Specific Series Used
WholcsLJe prices
(industrial)
United States
Japan
West Germany
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities
Wholesale prices, all industries
Producer prices for industrial products, ex-
cluding utilities
Index of prices of industrial products, in-
cluding taxes
Index of wholesale prices, home sales of mail-
ufactured products
Wholesale prices, general
Index of ;wholesale prices, non-farm goods
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Consumer prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Money supply
(seasonally adjusted)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Money-market rates2
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Euro-dollars
Consumer prices, dll items
Index of consumer Vices, general, all Japan
Price index for the standard of living, all
private households
Monthly index of consumer prices, overall
Index of retail prices, all items
Consumer prices, all goods and services
Index of consumer prices, -dl items
Total money supply
Money outstanding 1
Currency and sight deposits1
Money supply 1
Money stock
Money supply t
Currency and demand deposits
Prime finance paper
Call money
Interbank loans (three months)
Call money
Local authority deposits
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
1. Seasonally adjusted by OER.
2. From Selected Interest & Exchange Rates for Major Countries & the U.S., Publication 11-13,
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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 Approved For Release 2008/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140035-9
Specific Series Used
Exports; imports; and trade balance
(f.o.b. basis, se, sonally adjusted)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Basic balance of payments (US $)
(not seasonally adjusted except
for the United States)
United States
Japan
West Germany
United Kingdom
Italy
Official reserves4
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Export prices (US $)
United States
Japan
Exports; imports; exports minus imports
Exportst ; importsl ; exports minus imports
Exportst,2; i'iiportst,2,3;exports minus imports
Exports2 ; importsl; exports minus imports
Exports2; importsl; exports minus imports
Exports' importsl ,2,3 ; exports ninus imports
Exports2; importsl; exports minus imports
Basic balance
Basic balance2
Current account balance and long-term capital
balancel
Balance on current transactions and balance on
long-term capital2
Current balance, official long-term capital,
overseas investment in the UK public sector (ex-
cluding investment in British government stocks by
central monetary institutions and international
organizations), overseas investment in the UK
private sector, and UK private investment overseas2
Current account, net private investment, and net
private and public loans (excluding long-term co.. i-
mercial credits and some long-term capital outflows
in the form of banknote renrittances)2
Total current account balance and balance of
capital movements in long-term forms2
Total official reserve assets
Gold and foreign exchange reserves
Total holdings of gold and external claimss
Gold and reservess
Total official reservess
Reserves
Total official international reservess
Index of unit value of exports
Index of export prices, all commodities, in national
currency6
Index of average value of exports, in national
currency6
Index of value of exports, in national currency6
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 Approved For Release 2008/10/31: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500140035-9
Export prices (US $) (Continued)
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Export prices (national currency)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Import prices (national currency)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Exchange rates (spot rates)
Specific Series Used
Index of snit value of exports, in national currency6
Index of iverage value of exports, in national
currency''
Index of expo: rt prices, in natiotH currency
Index of unit value of exports
Index of export prices, all commodities
Index of average value of exports
Index of value of exports
Index of unit value of exports
Index of average value of exports
Index of export prices
Index of unit value of imports
Index of import prices, all commodities
Index of average value of imports
Index of value of imports
Index of unit value of imports
Index of average value of imports
Index of import prices
Closing spot rate for each currency, as reported by Reuters from quotations in the principal
exchange market of the country of issue.
Trade-weighted exchange rates
For the currencies of seven major industrial countries, the exchange-rate relationships are
weighted by 1971 trade shares. For each country's currency, the changes are calculated with
respect to its exchange rate (using the US dollar as a numeraire) against the currencies of the
following countries:
United States
Denmark
Netherlands
Sweden
Australia
France
Norway
Switzerland
Austria
Italy
South Africa
United Kingdom
Belgium
Japan
Spain
West Germany
Canada
1. Seasonally adjusted by OER.
2. Converted to US dollars at the average exchange rate for the period.
3. Adjusted to f.o.b. basis by OER.
4. Including official holdings of gold, SDRs, reserve position in IMF, and foreign exchange.
5. Converted to US dollars at end-of-period exchange rate.
6. Adjusted for exchange rate movements by OER.
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