DEVELOPMENTS IN INDOCHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001000090035-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 3, 2008
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: February 20, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret 25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Developments in Indochina
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
20 February 1973
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DEVELOPMENTS IN INDOCHINA
(Information as of 1500)
Page
The Communists are still concen-
trated south of Sa Huynh. Government
and Communist troops play volley ball
with one another one day and then fight
the next. The An Quang Buddhists are
thinking about a third force role and
membership on the Council of Reconcilia-
tion.
sembly.
Hanoi convenes its National As-
Cease-fire to begin on 21 Feb-
ruary. North Vietnamese troops are
moving in on Paksong.
Government efforts to take the
military initiative are making little
progress. Lon Nol defends recent
price rises.
20 February 1973
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There has been little change in the military
situation. In southern Quang Ngai Province, South
Vietnamese relief forces continue to clear the area
around Sa Huynh and have retaken additional high
ground west of the village. The Communists remain
entrenched south of Sa Huynh on Route 1, however,
Be Careful of Strangers Bearing Gifts
During the three-day Tet holiday early this
month, South Vietnamese soldiers in Kontum Province
got together with troops from the North Vietnamese
66th Regimeiit
They played volley ball and exchanged sma e
gifts. The government troops were impressed with
the apparent health, spirit, good appearance, and
quality of equipment of the North Vietnamese. On
12 February, these same North Vietnamese troops
launched strong attacks that produced heavy South
Vietnamese casualties. This type of incident has
cropped up in several other sectors of the country
since the beginning of the cease-fire period.
Keeping An Quang's Options Open
A Saigon press account of 13 February indicates
that the An Quang Buddhists are still uncertain about
what part they should play in future political nego-
tiations between the Saigon government and the Commu-
nists.
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An Quang had not yet
decided whether to designate representativas to the 25X1
National Council for National Reconciliation and Con-
cord
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according to An Quang Senator Ton That
Niem, the Church has not officially endorsed all of
Quang's remarks, but agrees with his "fundamental
idea" that An Quang should contribute members to the
council if given the opportunity.
An Quang has so far been careful not to expose
Buddhist thinking on post - cease-fire political de-
velopments. Nonetheless, the general attitude that
has emerged during the past few weeks is that the
Church would like to play a major role in the "third
element," both in order to serve as a genuine counter-
balance between the government and the Communists and
to preserve and possibl increase its own ba
power.
An Quang leaders are also trying to keep their
options open concerning President Thieu's latest po-
litical initiative. Four Buddhist senators attended
the organizational meeting of the government's new
"popular front" last week. Although they were care-
ful to present themselves as "individuals" and indi-
cated that the An Quang movement did not wish to com-
mit itself, the senators apparently hope to continue
their participation in the front. One senator told
the US Embassy that he and his colleagues would "with-
draw at once" if the front embarked on a course they
considered unwise.
20 February 1973
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NORTH VIETNAM
Hanoi's national assembly was called into ses-
sion on 20 February to celebrate the "victories" of
the past few weeks and to assign "new tasks" to the
people. First accounts from Hanoi Radio indicate that
although the rhetoric during the session will probably
be even more flowery than usual, the meeting will turn
out to be the usual rubberstamp affair. Nevertheless,
ld be
some insight into Hanoi's future priorities shou
gained from the reports delivered by Premier Pham Van
:gh ,, make t;.e..
mbl
y m
Dong and others, and the asse
ratify) some changes in the government lineup.
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The government and the Pathet iao have reached
agreement on a cease-fire. The agreement was
scheduled to be signed at 2300 EST on 20 February,
with the cease-fire itself going into effect at
midnight Washington time on 21 February. Although
the text of the agreement is not yet available, it
presumably is based on the proposal that Lao Com-
munist leader. Souphanouvong made to Souvanna on 1~3
February. This proposal called for an immediate in-
place cease-fire and bombing halt followed by dis-
cussions aimed at working out the details of a po-
litical settlement and a withdrawal of foreign mili-
tary forces.
The government has long sought to negotiate
separate military and political settlements. The
Communist proposal appears to represent a compromise
by providing for an initial cease-fire, while con-
tinuing to link a withdrawal of foreign forces to a
political accord. The primary purpose of this in-
terim agreement may be to give Souvanna additional
time to overcome rightist objections to an even
division of cabinet portfolios with the Communists
and to the installation of Lao Communist leader
Souphanouvong as his sole deputy prime minister in
a new coalition government. Souvanna himself now
appears ready to accept these terms. ~::: 25X1
The Military Situation
Belated reports from south Laos indicate that
North Vietnamese troops on 18 February captured hill-
top positions some two miles north of Paksong on the
Bolovens Plateau, but failed to take another hill just
north of the town. Although government units still
control most of the high ground around Paksong, the
North Vietnamese will probably mount a concerted ef-
fort to retake Paksong before the cease-fire goes into
effect.
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In the central panhandle, company-sized North
Vietnamese attacks on 19 February forced elements of
an eight-battalion irregular force to pull back from
the immediate area of Muong Phalane. Since the Com-
munists will, probably be able to fend off further
government advance:.? toward Muong Phalane, it appears
that cease-fire lines are well established in this
sector.
To the north, Communist mortar and artillery
fire continues to slow government units attempting to
move toward the southern and western edge of the
Plaine des Jarres. A five-battalion irregular force
has moved onto a ridge near Xieng Khouangville, a
town astride Route 4, some ten miles east of the
Plaine.
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CAMBODIA
Government efforts to regain the initiative from
Khmer insurgent forces continue to make little or no
progress. On the east bank of the Mekong, Cambodian
Army units are still cautiously assembling for an at-
tack on the insurgent-held village of Banam and on other
insurgent positions north of Banam along Route 15. Other
government troops on the west side of the Mekong are
making only slight headway in their efforts to reopen
Route 1 between Phnom Penh and the river. The Cam-
bodians have thus far suffered losses of 42 killed and
272 wounded in the fighting in that sector. Elsewhere
government forces trying to clear sections of Route 2
north and south of the town of Takeo have yet to make
Economic Tremors
In an address to the nation on 20 February, Lon
Nol defended the recent rise in the prices of POL
products and asked that any opposition to the higher
rates be confined to orderly protests sent through
proper bureaucratic channels. The President's ap-
peal probably was prompted in part by reports of
looting of Chinese shops in Battambang Province
following a hike in the price of rice and by de-
mands by striking teachers in Phnom Penh for a cost-
of-living allowance to meet the rapid rise in re-
tail prices. Most of the city's students report-
edly are sympathetic to their teachers' demands. 25X1
20 February 1973
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