UPDATE ON PFIAB ECONOMIC STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R000601440035-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 15, 2008
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: January 11, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85M00363R000601440035-3
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NIC #236-83
11 January 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Maurice C. Ernst, NIO/Economics
SUBJECT: Update on PFIAB Economic Study
1. In an earlier memo I summarized the discussion of my meeting with
Leo Cherne and other PFIAB members on our role in international financial
issues. Most of the discussion concerned my function in providing economic
warning in the future. I am ready to resume activity on this front.
2. With regard to using private sector contacts for economic warning
purposes, my principal objective is to get knowledgeable people to
volunteer their concerns, rather than just wait to be asked questions.
3. On the substantive level, I have participated in the interagency
process which will hopefully lead to a more coherent formulation of US
policy. As a next step, I have discussed with the need to do a
brief paper which lays out the magnitude of the economic and trade
adjustments and the financial flows if IMF sponsored programs were followed
by all concerned, and assesses, based on current trends and our knowledge
of political and economic problems, the risks that at least some of the
main actors will not play the desired role. Later I may prepare a new
version of our earlier perspective paper.
4. Apart from international finance, we are closely following the
world oil market. The latest CIA assessment for 1983 is in the latest
IEEW.
Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85M00363R000601440035-3
 Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85M00363R000601440035-3
Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85M00363R000601440035-3