THE NEW GOVERNMENT IN PORTUGAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00353R000100070007-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 9, 2002
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: July 17, 1974
• Content Type: MEMO

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July 17, 1974
MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: The New Government in Portugal
SUMMARY
The new government under Prime Minister Vasco
Goncalves is expected to be more responsive than
its predecessor was to the Armed Forces Movement
(MFA) that overthrew the Caetano regime. The now
Prime Minister is a direct representative of the
MI'A and a principal author of the program it: an-
nounced at the installation of President Spinola.
Goncalves is undoubtedly irore leftist in orienta-
tion than his predecessor, who was to the right of
center. We are skeptical of the allegations that
he is now--or ever was--a Communist.
In the sense that the cabinet crisis has made
it: clear that President Spiinola himself cannot act
against the wishes of the flEA, the new goVo r. amen t-
may also reflect a setback for t 3-(:~- more conser_va-
Li.ve fords represe:,, ted in. Lho pro-v:iou:; gover,imoii s ---
with which Spinola Ijcr:.;o.1,;; ,yiipaLh.i_?r.o.,. As i_or
the movement itself, we cOnti.nue to believe that
most of its members are "i.co ~.i.tsts, without alle-
giance to any particular political philosophy, al-
though it is possible that the Communists may be
making some inroads on their thinking.
When he was appointed last Saturday, Prime
Minister Goncalves stated that he will continue the
principle of a coalition cabinet but include his
military colleagues. His delay since then in an-
nouncing his choices may indicate that even his
clear mandate from the MFR has not lessened the
difficulty of finding a balance among the compet-
ing civilian groups and the military. The delay
also portends further difficulty in coming to grips
with the pressing political and economic problems
that Portugal faces at homy and in Africa.
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President Spinola's Position
The MFA's choice of Colonel Goncalve
sonal and political setback for Spinola.
He retains great prestige as e clie-
sta e and a former war hero, and most observers
believe that he would be an easy winner if an elec-
tion were held now. In part for that reason, there
is the suspicion that the former prime minister,
Palma Carlos, was fronting for Spinola in advocat-
ing such an election. The MFA, however, saw such
a "no-contest" election as a retreat from "democra-
tization," and since its firm rejection of that
proposal, Spinola has resumed affirming the "in-
tegrity" of the MFA's program.
Role of the New Prime Minister
As the chosen candidate of the movement, Colo-
nel Goncalves will have more clout than his civil-
ian predecessor did in dealing with the frustrating
differences over economic and labor problems that
stymied the Palma Carlos government. The embassy
in Lisbon cautions that it would be premature, and
probably an exaggeration, to interpret Goncalves'
appointment as a marked turn to the left. Some
observers have called him a "liberal" and the "ide-
ologue" of the MFA. Some have gone so far as label-
ing him a "leftist" or "marxist," but such labels
probably reflect Portugal's conservative tradition
under the Salazar regime. More meaningful. will be
the composition of the cabinet he chooses and what
it does. At the moment, Goncalves appears primarily
committed to a policy of no retreat from the MFA's
commitment to install a democratic system in Portu-
gal with legislative elections next March, and the
earliest possible negotiation of an end to the
fighting in the African colonies.
SF, RFT
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The Other Ministers
The first cabinet appointed by Spinola had a
balanced representation of the parties that opposed
the Salazar-Caetano regime, including Communists,
Socialists, and the new center Popular Democratic
Party; only the defense minister was a military man.
Since Goncalves has stated that the coalition prin-
ciple will prevail with the addition of some mili-
tary colleagues, the delay that has occurred in an-
nouncing the new cabinet may result from difficulty
in making room for the military. Communist leader
Cunhal and Socialist leader Mario Snares are ex-
pected to retain their portfolios along with one or
more centrists. Little is known about the officers
under consideration for the new cabinet, although
several possible candidates have been characterized
as "leftists" by sources of uncertain objectivity.
In any case, all the new ministers will be atten-
tive to the program of the Armed Forces Movement.
The Armed Forces Movement
Now that members of the Armed Forces Movement
are stepping forward into the arena of government
their political orientation will become more obvi-
ous. From their beginning as the "captains move-
ment" several years ago, there have been reports
of the leftist leanings of some of these officers,
generally said to be in the minority. The main
orientation of the movement, however, is considered
to have been reformist and nationalist, and these
principles likely still predominate. The leftist
political movements, however, have been active in
trying to gain influence in the armed forces, while
centrist or conservative counterinfluences have
been missing, except on the part of the more senior
officers, who no longer carry much weight with their
subordinates. Even if some of the leaders who are
leftist-influenced gain representation in the new
cabinet, this would still not necessarily mean that
their political views will be those of the majority,
given the spectrum of views within the MFA.
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