LETTER TO MR. MITCHELL ROGOVIN FROM WILLIAM G. MILLER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84R01033R000100100001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 4, 1975
• Content Type: LETTER

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 F.Oiifsr vO.eGS.~1, M.C. MICMAMD S. SCHWEIAER. I-A.
GARY MA'T, COLO.
31 C,nif eb z1a$e , sisal p'.
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STUDY GOVERNMENTAL OPE NS WITH
RESPECT TO INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES
(1?URSUANr TO S. HfiS. 21. 3m, COMGR5SS)
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20510
September 4+, 1975
xi
xi
Special Counsel to the Director
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C.
Dear
z< ' As a follow-up to r'Ky letters of 27 May and 14 July describing.
the Senate Select Committee's studies in the field of foreign
intelligence, the Committee would like to sponsor a special study
on the relation. between the production of national intelligence
estimates and the allocation of total U.S. collection resources.
This study will be under the direction of Dr. Arthur Herrington
Attached to this letter is a memorandum briefly describing
the subjects which this study will address.
I would appreciate your providing I Iwith access
to the people within your agency who would be most knowledgeable
about these issues and to the relevant documents.
Sincerely,
William G. Miller
Staff Director
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 Statement of N'ork
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I., Objectiv "lo proviae ~n~c A t, Mid
criticism on the activi ies of the U.S.
intelligence community in three areas:
1. The production of National and related
intelligence estimates.
2. The production of current intelligence
and warning.
3. The allocation of total U_S. collection
resources.
II. Specifics:' The following, topics will be considered:
1. On National and related estimates:
The range an ocus of National and related
estimates, their strengths and'wcaknesses,
the role of analysis in the estimating pro-
cess, who estimates and how, how are various
estimates used and by whom, what are the roles
of the DCI and other intelligence community
staffs in resolving disputed estimates, and
what possible changes night be of interest
to improve our estimating capability. Items
that should be considered include:
Estimates:
NIE's and SNIE's and their history DIPP
(Ex NIPP) and other compendia
Special estimates for NSSI'?Is
Program memoranda, Area Concept-Papers
-and other analysis or estimate papers
prepared in DOD
Net Assessments _
CINC estimates
Other Estimators - the Press, Congress,?etc.
Uses
Defense budget debates - National policy
issues - gross world balances in
military capability
Force level issues - how is defense budget
divided: deployments
Weapon system choices and technology
Negotiations (SALT, UBFR, etc.)
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Areas.for Specific Data or Case histories:
Strategic and tactical nuclear forces
Ground forces - Europe; general NATO
capability vs. the Pact
Tactical air - Europe
Naval forces versus the USSR
China and the USSR
Korea
Mideast
Other "hot spots"
Specific Questions:
What estimates-consider both friendly
and enemy capabilities, and what-is the
role of the. intelligence community in -
insuring balanced treatment of both?
? flow do we estimate our allies' capabilities?
? How does the estimating record fit with the
facts as seen later?
.? What are the processes of. producing var-
ious types of estimates, and how do these
processes affect the content of the esti-
mates?
2. On estimates of-curren.t actions and warning: .
The strengths and weaknesses of U.S: current
intelligence estimates, that is, warning of
impending critical events, will be examined.
in a manner consistent with the discussion of -
National and related (capabilities) estimates...
Generally,.the same issues as outlined above,
should be discussed. Additional specific
questions include.*
0 How are estimates of current activities
and intent related to estimates of -
capabilities?
? What processes are involved in producing
such current estimates and how are they
related to th.e process that produce.capa-
bilities estimates? To what extent are
theory (organizational responsibility
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and structure) and practice (possible
short cuts) divergent, and with what
risks and payoffs? Who are the real
users of current intelligence and warn-
ing, in terms of possible actions taken;
on what sources do these users generally
depend?
? What specific collection programs tend
to serve the current as opposed to
longer-term estimating process., and to
what extent does the nature of the col-
lections drive the subsequent process of
estimating current actions? (see further,'
below)
? To what extent do critical intelligence
warning nets and doctrine impact on the
production of current estimates, and to
what extent are other, more standard chan-
nels (diplomatic, normal CINC communica-
tions, etc) used?
? To what extent are the processes'of pro-..
duction of current intelligence and warn-
ing in peacetime related to those produc-
ing theatre level military intelligence
in war?
? Are there possible organizational changes
that might strengthen the current estimat-
ing process?
3. On collection assets, their costs and alloca-
tion to end estimates are:
A catalogue of total U.S. collection programs
will be prepared with a short statement on the
targeting philosophy, approximate annual dol-
lar cost, and potential. use of each in the
production of estimates of both capabilities
and intent. Further, some indication will
be given as to the level. of use of the in-
formation acquired (e.g. technical character-
istics, future force levels, plans, current
deployments, immediate- war intent etc).
Specific issues.-relating to this catalogue
to be discussed include:
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? The.-process of collection, asset alloca--
tion, the role of the USIB in determining
targeting of assets, key intelligence
questions, and the extent of collection
program justification, development, and
management impacts on the allocation of
collectors to pnd estimate use. What
previous studies have there been in this
area (NIP?ls, etc).-
? To what extent military forces-,purchased
for other (wartime) use are allocated. to
peacetime intelligence functions, and
with what payoffs and risks. Where are
decisions on such allocations made?
The process of Total dollar resource man-
agement in intelligence collection aid pro-
cessing, and the role of--the DCI and other
Staffs in this process. What. central
allocation machinery exists, and should it
be strengthened or, conversely, is there
too much centralization already?
? How do the-pattern of expenditures in
collections and the general utility-of
the-information produced relate to:
(a) Possible needs for better National
(capabilities) estimates.
_(b) Possible needs for better warning
or estimates of intent.
(c) Possible needs for wartime intelli-
gence in support of committed-forces-
(d)
SECDEF, DCI, and CJCS (or their representatives) for com-
ment, criticism and review. Points of contact have already
been established. Comments and criticisms received will be
reflected in a revised draft or appended in their entirety
or both as appropriate. The objective is to reflect fully
Possible needs for better technolog-
ical estimates on enemy weaponry?.-"
111. Method of Operation:
A comprehensive coherent paper on the above topics will be
produced. The paper will be submitted in draft to CNSC
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all views on the paper and the subjects discussed- to the
extent comments are provided. The paper and the revised
draft and comments will be provided to all parties prior
to final submission to insure that all views have been
reflected adequately.
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