CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
15730608
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
6
Document Creation Date:
July 13, 2023
Document Release Date:
August 31, 2022
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
F-2019-01230
Publication Date:
June 17, 1954
File:
Attachment | Size |
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15730608].pdf | 182.29 KB |
Body:
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17 June 1954
Copy No.
80
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 20
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: PO/ 0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 21//c90 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP-SEC-RE T
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Comment on prospective Vietnamese premier (page 3).
2. Ely pessimistic on Tonkin delta prospects (page 3).
3. Haiphong munitions dump reported threatened by Viet Minh (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Nasr moves toward removal of Nagib from Egyptian presidency
(page 4).
LATIN AMERICA
5. Brazil sees no general agreement on US resolution prior to OAS
meeting (page 5).
6. Guatemalan army officers see Arbenz stalling on ultimatum (page 6).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Comment on prospective Vietnamese premier
Rumors that Premier Buu Loc had
submitted his resignation to Bao Dai
were confirmed on 16 June by an offi-
cial communique from the premier's
office. Bao Dai's choice as premier-designate is the prominent
Catholic layman, Ngo Dinh Diem.
Bao Dal's reported decision to appoint
Diem at this critical juncture has given rise to speculation that his
motive is simply to set up a scapegoat government to bear the onus
of signing an unfavorable truce agreement with the Viet Minh.
Diem has been out of public office for
more than 20 years and out of the country for more than four. Re-
ports of his appointment have elicited considerable comment as to
his qualifications and intentions. Even the most favorable comment
on Diem's qualifications has been somewhat reserved, his advocates
conceding that his alleged popularity and well-established honesty
are to some extent offset by his arrogance, inexperience, and im-
practicality.
The American consul in Hanoi has ex-
pressed concern at reports that Diem was considering the replace-
ment of north Vietnam's capable governor, Nguyen Huu Tn.
2. Ely pessimistic on Tonkin delta prospects
General Ely, in conversation with the
American charg�n Saigon on 15 June,
termed the Tonkin delta military
situation "precarious." He said that
French and Vietnamese troops are "very, very tired" and that the
enemy now holds about two thirds of all delta villages. Ely clearly
Indicated his personal doubt that the delta could be held without out-,
side reinforcements of from two to three divisions.
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The French commander in chief also
commented on the low state of the Vietnamese government and ex-
pressed the feeling that Ngo Dinh Diem, the reported premier-
designate, would probably prove ineffectual in rallying support for
the government.
3. Haiphong munitions dump reported threatened by Viet Minhu
destruction of the dump would almost level Haiphong.
Comment Viet Minh sabotage capa-
bilities, despite French security measures, are considerable.
The most recent incident apparently attributable to Viet Minh
saboteurs was the partial destruction of a 5,000-ton munitions
dump near Saigon on 2 June,
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Nasr moves toward removal of Nagib from Egyptian presidency
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Photographs of Nagib in government offices
are being replaced by Koranic verses and several thousand photographs
of Nasr are ready for display The change-(b)(3)
over is expected prior to the celebration of the regime's second anni-
versary on 23 July.
Comment Nasr is unlikely to remove
Nagib from the presidency until he is certain he can control the situa-
tion. Meanwhile the Nasr regime has adopted a policy of discrediting
Nagib.
LATIN AMERICA
5. Brazil_sees no general agreement on US resolution prior to OAS
meeting
The ministry noted that a number of coun-
tries were offering reservations and that little time was available
for negotiation. It added that the meeting itself is the "proper place"
to reach agreement, and that insistence on prior agreement may
"compromise the very principle of calling the meeting."
Comment Brazil has offered to intercede
with other governments on behalf of American objectives in this case,
but is not itself committed to the text of the resolution proposed by
Washington on 5 June.
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The argument that the OAS meeting is
the proper place to work out a resolution runs counter to the belief
of several other countries that lack of prior agreement will invite
a fiasco. To date, eight governments are committed to the American
resolution without serious reservation. Fourteen votes are needed
for action.
6. Guatemalan army officers see Arbenz stalling on ultimatum:
CIA Guatemala City
15 June 54
SECRET
A group of Guatemalan army officers led
by Colonel Elfego Monzon was pressing
on 14 June for the immediate ouster of
President Arbenz, even prior to his
reply to an army ultimatum, according to a usually reliable source.
Arbenz is said to have agreed to resign, but only on certain unac-
ceptable conditions, and these officers believe he is merely stalling.
Comment: Arbenz will have to make
significant concessions to the anti-Communist army officers or risk
ouster. He has been under growing army pressure to reverse his
pro-Communist policies since as long ago as last November.
Colonel Monzon, minister without portfolio
in the Arbenz cabinet and an influential officer, told a reliable source
last January that "four or five more months of present conditions"
would force army leaders to oust Arbenz. He claimed a majority of
the army's officers would join him in a move against the government.
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