LEBANON: DANY CHAMOUN'S PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRATIONS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06904903
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2021
• Case Number: F-2020-01498
• Publication Date: January 29, 1988

Approved for Release: 2021/09/27 C06904903
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Near East and
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29 January 1988
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Near East and
South Asia Review
29 January 1988
Page
Articles
Syria: Rea
Territories
alestinian Unrest in Israeli-Occupied 1
Syria maintains that the recent unrest in the Israeli-occupied West
Bank and Gaza Strip vindicates its hardline position on the Arab-
Israeli issue. Damascus has encouraged the unrest by giving it full
propaganda support and urging its Palestinian surrogates to do the
same. Syria's anti-Palestinian actions in recent year. however, will
lessen its effect in the occupied territories.
Palestinian Terrorism in 1987
Palestinian terrorist attacks outside the Middle East decreased in
1987, but incidents within Israel and the occupied territories as well
as attempted raids into Israel increased. Palestinian activists still
believe terrorism is an effective way to focus attention on their
grievances and hurt Israel and its supporters
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29 January 1988
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Lebanon: Danv Chamoun's Presidential Aspirations
Leader of the National Liberal Party and a perennial presidential
candidate, Dany Chamoun is a front-runner among the growing
number of presidential hopefuls in Lebanon's September 1988
election. To increase his popular support, Chamoun is developing a
politi�oiatfqrm and contacts independent of the National Liberal
Party
Tunisia: The Fundamentalist Challenge to Stability
Islamic fundamentalism, under the banner of the Islamic Tendency
Movement, represents the largest political threat to the government
of President Zinc El Abidine Ben Ali. Ben Ali has shown by his
initial actions that he intends to implement a more imaginative and
effective policy for dealing with the fundamentalists
ii
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Stirge(
17117R7768151'17444c-T (b)(3)
Middle East-South Asian Debt: Manageable but Growing
Examination of the external debt position of the countries of the
Middle East and South Asia reveals broad differences in the
magnitude of their financing problems. A steadily growing need for
external financing combined with pressure on Western creditors for
more generous rescheduling is likely to produce strains in important
political relationships. (b)(3)
Brief
Saudi Arabia: Banning Iranian Religious Pilgrim
Publications of Interest
Reverse Blank
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Lebanon: Dany Chamoiff_s_7
Presidential Aspirations
Dany Chamoun, leader of Lebanon's National
Liberal Party and a perennial presidential candidate,
is a front-runner among the growing number of
presidential hopefuls in Lebanon's September 1988
election. In an attempt to emerge from the political
shadow cast by his father, former President Camille
Chamoun, and widen his base of popular support,
Dany Chamoun is developing a political platform and
contacts independent of the National Liberal Party.
Chamoun's path to the presidency will be rife with
problems. His hardline Christian attitude and
political concessions to the Lebanese Forces militia
may make him an unacceptable candidate to most
Muslim groups in Lebanon. Chamoun's past anti-
Syrian rhetoric also may make him an unacceptable
choice to Damascus�which will play a major role in
the 1988 election�but his often pro-Israeli stance
may win him influential support from Tel Aviv.
Coming Into His Own
The National Liberal Party, the second largest
Maronite party, was founded by Camille Chamoun in
1958. His death in August 1987 removed the most
cohesive, driving force behind the party. To broaden
his own political appeal and support, Dany Chamoun
is attempting to find a more moderate line than the
traditional National Liberal Party platform. Dany,
Camille's younger son, is expanding his contacts with
other Lebanese political factions and expressing his
oninion on a wide variety of tonics
Contacts in the Lebanese Dynamic
Chamoun's contacts within the Christian community
and with Lebanon's prominent families are well
established on both personal and political levels.
Fueled by the traditional Gemayel-Chamoun family
rivalry, Chamoun has been an outspoken critic of
President Gemayel. Chamoun has close access to
Acting Prime Minister Salim al-Huss, as well as to
other Cabinet members
19
Dany Chamoun
President of National Liberal Party . . . inherited
leadership from father, Camille Chamoun, in August
1985. . . former commander of the party's now
defunct Tigers militia . . . left Lebanon after defeat of
Tigers by Lebanese Forces militia in 1980 . . .
returned after election o s ir Gemayel as
president in 1982 . . . 53
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
In addition, Chamoun ha(b)(1)
personal ties to Druze warlord and Cabinet Minister(b)(3)
Walid Junblatt, founded on the Chamoun's familial
ties to the Druze-controlled Shuf region. (b)(3)
Among Dany Chamoun's top priorities is improving
his carefully cultivated relationship with the militant
Lebanese Forces militia. Although not formally
involved in the political process, the Lebanese Forces
has positioned itself as a powerful performer in this
year's election and may play a spoiler role for any
candidate acquiescing to Syrian or Muslim demands.
The National Liberal Party has been associated with
the Lebanese Forces since the start of the civil war in
1976. The party's Tigers militia was forcibly merged
into the Lebanese Forces militia by then militia leader
Bashir Gemaye.Jeaving a residue of friction between
the two groups
We believe Chamoun's courtship of the Lebanese
Forces will increase in 1988 as he attempts to calm
militia anxieties or challenges to his candidacy caused
by a moderating of his political stand.
Chamoun has
publicly championed the Christians' need for the
Lebanese Forces militia, especially as an internal
security force, and has extolled the virtues of Samir
Ja Ja, the leader of the Lebanese Forces, on several
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occasions.
Chamoun has been eager to
exploit his alliance with the militia both domestically
and abroad and has offered to act as an intermediary
for contact between the United States and the
Lebanese Forces. Chamoun will try hard to convince
Ja Ja not to advance his own candidacy but rather
rally behind him as a more "compromise" figure.
Chamoun's contacts in the Muslim community are
more limited, but it appears that he is trying to open
new lines of communication. Chamoun recently
instructed an
emissary to approach Hizballah spiritual leader
Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah with a plan for a
Hizballah-Amal agreement to prevent Palestinian and
other attacks against Israel in return for an Israeli
withdrawal from South Lebanon. Chamoun is not
overly optimistic about this plan, but his overtures to
Hizballah may indicate a willingness to open other
political channels with Shia leaders. The National
Liberal Party has traditionally had closer ties to key
Shia families than any other Christian party.
Chamoun has maintained a longstanding relationship
with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO),
which facilitates his ties to Lebanon's Sunni Muslims
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Syria�An Overwhelming Obstacle
All of Chamoun's efforts to broaden his support may
be for naught if his well-known relationship with
Israel makes him anathema to the Syrians.
Damascus, whose troops occupy two-thirds of
Lebanon, is widely viewed as the major force in this
year's election, and any successful candidate will
require Syrian acquiesence at a minimum, or more
likely, Syrian backing.
We believe that in this election Damascus wants to
prevent the creation of either a hostile fundamentalist
Muslim state or a Christian ministate dependent on
Israel on its western border. Dany Chamoun may be
Reverse Blank
21
unable to overcome his pro-Israeli image enough to
squelch Syrian fears of the latter form of government.
In addition, past anti-Syrian statements, such as
Chamoun's declaration that Damascus was
responsible for Prime Minister Karami's assassination
last June, will be difficult�if not impossible�to
overcome in courting Syrian support.
Outlook
Although Chamoun is positioning himself to make a
serious run for Lebanon's presidency, it is too soon to
make a judgment of his chances. Until more
information is known on the election plans of such key
players as Samir Ja Ja and Syrian President Assad,
the field remains wide open. Dany Chamoun has
demonstrated a keen awareness of the Syrian and
militant Christian roles in the 1988 election and will
continue to probe for the elusive political platform
needed to pacify opposition to his election
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