NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 17 FEBRUARY 1983

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05168811
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: August 31, 2021
• Case Number: F-2021-02253
• Publication Date: February 17, 1983

Director of
Central
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Contents
Lebanon: Pressures on Palestinians 1
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Special
NATO-Japan: East-West Economic Study
East Germany: Peace Movement Activity
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UK: Cut in North Sea Oil Prices Expected
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Cuba: Cutbacks in Foreign Assistance
Analysis
Australia: Impact of a Labor Election Victory
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BEIRUT
BEIRUT
INTERNATIONAL I/
AIRPORT
Mediterranean
Sea
Tyre,
Boundary representation is
nut necessarily authontativ
633715 2-83
Lebanon
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Syria
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LEBANON: Pressures on Palestinians
The Lebanese Forces Christian militia's continuing campaign
of harassment of Palestinians apparently is designed to encourage
them to leave Lebanon.
The increasing violence and intimidation against
Palestinian civilians is most pronounced near Sidon. In
recent weeks at least 15 Palestinians have been murdered,
numerous others have been kidnaped, and many more have
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been evicted from their homes.
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Israeli authorities
in southern Lebanon are trying
to provide security for the Palestinian refugee camps
in the Israeli-controlled area and have warned the
Lebanese Forces militia to end its activities there. In
the vicinity of Sidon, however, approximately one-third
of the Palestinians
the camps.
live
in nearby towns rather than in
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The 2,500 residents of the Mieh Mieh camp, which
is isolated from Sidon and near a hostile Christian
village, are especially vulnerable. There have been
reports that Lebanese Forces militiamen have been seen
in the camp.
Comment: The Lebanese Government probably is not
concerned about the anti-Palestinian campaign. Despite
official statements that legally registered Palestinians
can remain, the government wants to reduce their number
in the country--perhaps by half--and is determined to
keep those who remain under tight control. Even if
the Lebanese Army and security forces were to take con-
trol in the Sidon area, Palestinians would still be
subject to roundups and long detentions similar to those
that occurred during the Army's sweep of West Beirut
last fall.
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NATO-JAPAN: East-West Economic Study
The members of NATO are looking for a way to involve Japan
in the study of the security implications of East-West economic
relations.
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Japanese representatives in Brussels have made clear
that Tokyo will not commit itself to abide by NATO's rec-
ommendations unless it has a direct role. NATO Secretary
General Luns suggests that Japan's association with the
study be assured through consultations with the US, Canada,
and West Germany.
France, however, opposes any arrangement that ap-
pears to institutionalize contacts between Japan and
NATO. Foreign Minister Cheysson has expressly ruled out
directly associating Japan with the NATO economic study
and maintains that coordination with Tokyo has to be
limited to informal bilateral discussions.
The UK and Canada support Luns's suggestion to es-
tablish the "trio mechanism." West Germany does not
oppose such consultations but cautions against a NATO
decision that could increase French opposition.
France's unwillingness to include the Japanese in
the study stems partly from its long stand against involv-
ing nonmembers in Alliance affairs and expanding NATO's
geographical scope. The French also fear that Japanese
participation might make the NATO study appear to be the
foundation for a formal, overall Western strategy for
conducting economic relations with the USSR and Eastern
Europe. The French have long resisted discussing East-
West economic measures that go beyond security aspects
of trade.
Under the new government of Prime Minister Nakasone,
Japan wants to increase its participation in Western
security consultations and is concerned that the NATO
study may ignore Japanese trade interests. The NATO
economic study is one of six East-West trade projects
that the Allies and Japan agreed to undertake when the
US pipeline sanctions were lifted in November. Tokyo
participates in the other five because of its membership
in the OECD and COCOM, but it believes that the NATO
study could result in the most wide-ranging policy
recommendations.
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EAST GERMANY: Peace Movement Activity
The regime's increasing pressure on the peace movement is
ealliva to slow its momentum.
More activists have been arrested during the past
month, including a dozen organizers of a silent demon-
stration in the university city of Jena. US Embassy
sources report that the authorities also are jailing
more young men who seek to be considered conscientious
objectors.
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In addition, officials have harassed signers of an
open letter to party leader Honecker protesting the
possible drafting of women during national emergencies.
The authorities recently put increased emphasis on pre-
military training for school children, including "winter
maneuvers" for those between six and 14 years of age.
To siphon support from the genuine peace movement,
the regime produced at least 25,000 participants for its
own "peace" rally on Sunday in Dresden. Meanwhile, peace
activists staged alternative memorial meetings and dis-
cussions in Dresden, highlighted by an ecumenical service
for 3,000 people. US Embassy sources say that many peace
groups are planning numerous activities for the rest of
the year, including a national-level coordination meeting
in May.
Comment: Although the strong police reaction in
Jena apparently led some local peace groups to abandon
similar plans, activists are likely to turn to less pro-
vocative means to promote their cause. The premilitary
training for school children probably will intensify
opposition among the activists and may attract new ad-
herents.
The authorities' desire to crack down on the peace
movement is at odds with the need to show restraint and
avoid undermining the Warsaw Pact's "peace offensive"
in Western Europe. The regime felt obliged this week
to deny Western media reports of arrests, suggesting
that at least for now it will bow to the foreign policy
constraint.
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UK: Cut in North Sea Oil Prices Expected
A cut in crude oil prices by the British National
Oil Company is anticipated tomorrow.
The UK has been under
pressure to cut prices tor several weeks, and spot prices
for North Sea crudes currently are about $4 per barrel
below official prices. Meanwhile, Libya has called for
an OPEC meeting
Comment: A reduction in official North Sea prices
would lead to comparable price cuts by other large pro-
ducers, especially OPEC's North African members. These
cuts could force compromises by all OPEC members to
reach agreement on pricing and production allocations.
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CUBA: Cutbacks in Foreign Assistance
Economic hardships may force Cuba to reduce scholar-
ship grants to foreign students, according to the US
Interests Section.
the Soviets also are prodding the Cubans to
eliminate superfluous expenses. In addition to reducing
the number of new scholarships, Havana will shift the
hard currency burden of existing ones--transport costs
and special stipends--to the students' respective
governments.
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Comment: An estimated 25,000 foreign students are
in Cuba, primarily from Ethiopia, Angola, Mozambique,
and Nicaragua. The cutbacks will save little hard cur-
rency, because most of the scholarship costs are in soft
currency. Moscow probably encouraged the move as part
of its continuing effort to limit Cuba's demand for
Soviet soft currency economic aid, which was estimated
to be more than $3.8 billion last year.
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Labor Party Leader Hawke
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The 52-year-old Hawke has been a
member of Parliament since October
1980 ... a moderate socialist ...
experienced in mediating labor
disputes during 11 years as president
of the Council of Trade Unions ...
enjoys the reputation as Australia's
most popular politician.
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Special Analysis
AUSTRALIA: Impact of a Labor Election Victory
A government headed by Bob Hawke--who will become Prime Min-
ister if the Labor Party wins the national parliamentary elections
scheduled for 5 March�probably would cause some problems for US
interests. Even so, it would not result in substantial reductions
in Australian cooperation with the US on security or defense matters.
The moderate foreign affairs plank in the Labor Party platform is
based on support for the ANZUS alliance and for the close relation-
ship with the US. Hawke publicly reaffirmed his commitment to both
earlier this month.
Prime Minister Fraser surprised political observers
on 3 February by calling for early elections. Immediately
after the announcement, Australian Labor Party leader
Hayden stepped down, and on 8 February Hawke was selected
to replace him.
At present, the election appears likely to be ex-
tremely close, despite Hawke's current lead over Fraser
in recent polls and Labor's lead over the Liberal -
National Party coalition. The polls often reflect the
popularity of Australian leaders accurately, but many
voters put aside sentimental preferences when casting
their votes. The selection of Hawke as Labor leader,
however, gives the party a chance to do better than it
would have under Hayden's uninspiring leadership.
The Immediate Challenge
Hawke first has to consolidate his control over a
factionalized party and establish his leadership in the
eyes of the voters. He will have difficulty reining in
the party's left wing, a longstanding and vocal enemy.
Some 20 to 25 leftwing members sit in Parliament, and
without their cooperation the party would have much less
appeal as a unified and responsible alternative to the
current government.
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The Labor Party's new leader is outspoken. He will
have to campaign with unaccustomed caution if he is to
gain the support of the essentially conservative
electorate.
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Labor's Foreign Policy
Hawke's selection as Labor leader also confirms
that the party is gradually becoming somewhat more con-
servative. His record in Labor politics places him to
the right of even the fundamentally moderate Hayden.
Labor's platform, which was adopted at the party's
conference last July, emphasizes policies that would make
Australia more independent in foreign affairs and national
defense. Although the platform supports the ANZUS treaty
and the Australian-US alliance, a Labor government prob-
ably would take more independent initiatives in Southeast
Asia and would be more openly critical of US policy than
is the Fraser government.
The platform recommends a more nationalistic policy
toward foreign investment in natural resource - related
industries. Problems for foreign investors would be
likely to arise if Labor were to carry out proposals to
introduce export controls, more actively help coordinate
exports by private companies, and strictly enforce laws
requiring 51-percent Australian ownership and control in
extraction and processing projects.
Hawke's Views
Although Hawke would be willing to challenge the US
when he believed it appropriate, he is fundamentally in
agreement with US policy objectives. For example, he
has traditionally aligned himself with the US in policy
matters concerning Israel and the USSR--positions that
have cost him support in his party's left wing.
The US Embassy reports that Hawke favors the general
outline for a Labor government's foreign policy that was
presented by Hayden to senior US officials several months
ago. Like Hayden, Hawke recognizes the importance of the
US-Australian joint-defense facilities.
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Hawke is less concerned than Hayden that Australia's
limited control over the North West Cape facility com-
promises national sovereignty. He also appears less
worried about the agreement that allows US B-52s to stage
through Darwin in northern Australia.
If a government led by Hawke is elected and carries
out party policies, however, problems for US interests
are likely to arise. The party seeks a nuclear-free
zone in the southern hemisphere and rejects the US policy
of neither confirming nor denying the presence of nuclear
weapons on US aircraft in Australia.
Hawke also would be likely to explore the possibility
of renegotiating the B-52 agreement. In addition, despite
his personal long-term support for Israel, Hawke endorses
his party's plank that rejects further Australian partic-
ipation in the Sinai multinational peacekeeping force.
He has left open the timing of the withdrawal.
Nevertheless, Hawke's moderate stand on sensitive
defense issues and his fundamental support of the bi-
lateral relationship would make a confrontational approach
unlikely. Bilateral relations probably would remain in-
tact and cooperative.
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