REASSESSMENT OF INSURGENT STRENGTH IN GUATEMALA

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05511684
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: January 23, 2020
• Case Number: F-2016-02132
• Publication Date: June 23, 1983

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23 June 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Reassessment of Insurgent Strength in Guatemala
REFERENCE: ALA Memorandum ALA-M-82-10151, dated 17 November 1982
1. A revised estimate of insurgent strength in Guatemala
during the last halt of 1982 through .May 1983,
it includes an .analysis of the extent and intensity of insurgent
activity, and probable guerrilla casualties resulting from
government actions during that time.
Guerrilla Army of the Poor (EGP) 800 to 1,000
Revolutionary Organization of the
People in Arms (ORPA) 700 to 800
Rebel Armed Forces (FAR)
Guatemalan Communist Party/Dissident
Faction (PGT/D)
Guatemalan Communist Party/Orthodox
Faction (PGT/0)
Total Strength (full-time combatants)
Militia (part-time irregulars)
2. This
approx. 400
100 to 200
300 to 400.a
2,000 to 2,500b
2,000 to 2,00c
assessment represents a reduction from the previous
estithate of 2,000 to 3,000 full-time
insurgent., within the country.
ALA-M-83-10103
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(b)(3)
SUBJECT: Reassessment of Insurgent Strength in Guatemala
3. Comments and inquiries regarding this estimate
encouraged. Responses should be directed to
CIA/Central American Branch,
Deputy Chie
are
Central America Branch
a The increase in PGT/O strength reflects the most current
intelligence information, and not an increase in this group's
actual numbers during the past six months.
ID While the precise addition of the individual groups totals
2,300 to 2,800, a total strength of 2,000 to 2,500 is recommended
to more accurately indicateeinsurjent strength. The BGT/0 is not
given consideration within the insurgent totals because it has
largely disdained military-related activities, and remains
outside the Gautemalan National Revolutionary Union--the
guerrilla umbrella organization.
The militia figure again reflects an earlier CIA/DIA
determination that probably an equal number of part-time
supporters could be expected to participate actively in insurgent
operations, if so directed and if weaponry were available.
Nevertheless, we continue to judge that only a limited percentage
of this group could be mustered for any given Operation.
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(b)(3)
(b)(3)
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Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C05511684