GRC ESTIMATE OF MAINLAND CHINA CONDITIONS AS OF 12 MARCH 1962

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02851413
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: February 24, 2020
• Case Number: F-2018-01235
• Publication Date: March 14, 1962

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tENTRALRMELLKNENCEAVMENCY
This material contains Information affecting the 'National Defense of the United States within- the meaning of the Espionage Lows; Tido �16 U.EEC. Sec*
793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which In any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
CONF
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cuissipse 'NMI rarer la ME A AMMO ....rams
ENTIAL NOFORNj
COUNTRY CHINA (TAINAN)/CHINA
SUBJECT GRC ESTIMATE OF MAINLAND CHINA CONDITI)AS -
AS OF 12 MARCH 1962
DATE OF
INFO.
REPORT NO.
(SATE DISTR. 14 MARCH 1962
PRECEDENCE ROUT IN
REFERENCES.
KAMEN
THIS IS UNEVALUATED INFORMATION. SOURCE GRADINGS ARE DEFINITIVE. APPRAISAL OF CONTENTS iIr
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF
CHINA (GRC) PRESENTED A WRITTEN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL*
POLITICAL, AND MILITARY SITUATIONS IN COMMUNIST CHINA THAT FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RESISTANCE.
COMMENT. THIS ANALYSIS
WAS STIMULATED BY A UNITED STATES ANALYSIS OF THE MAINLAND
SITUATION PRESENTED TO THE GRC DURING THE WEEK OF 4 MARCH i962
3, THE ANALYSIS CONTENDED THAT AN ECONOMIC CRISIS HAD
DEVELOPED IN COMMUNIST CHINA AS A RESULT OF THE FAILURE IN
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE THREE RED FLAGS - THE PEOPLE'S COMMUNES,
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INFORMATION REPORT
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THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD, AND THE GENERAL LINE. THIS ECONOMIC
CRISIS HAD IN TURN RESULTED IN POPULAR DISAFFECTION WITH THE
REGIME, PEASANT RESISTANCE TO THE REGIME, A SCHISM IN THE
LEADERSHIP OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PART': (COP) PUD IrTRA-DLOC
WRANGLES, ALL OF WHICH PROVIDED A CLIMATE OF INSTABILITY IN WHICH
ii]iiSTANa COULD BE SUCCESSFULLY DEVELOPED IN MAINLAND CHINA
PROVIDED THE GRC PROVIDED [NE LEADERSHIP AND WEAPONS FOR IT.
4. THE CHINESE COMMUNISTS HAVE ADMITTED THAT 1960 FOOD
PRODUCTION WAS THE LOWEST IN THE PAST HUNDRED YEARS; 1961 SAW
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOOD PRODUCTION. RATIONS WERE CONSEQUENTLY
REDUCED TO AS LITTLE AS FIVE OR TEN CATTIES PER PERSON PER MONTH
IN SOME AREA, AND FOOD IMPORTS FROM ABROAD BENEFITTED ONLY
WORKERS IN LARGE NORTH CHINA CITIES; TOWNSMEN AND VILLAGERS
ELSEWHERE DID NOT BENEFIT FROM THE IMPORTS. HONG KONG POST
OFFICE STATISTICS, WHICH SHOW MORE THAN THIRTEEN MILLION FOOD
PARCELS SENT TO THE MAINLAND DURING 1961, EVIDENCE THE DEPTH OF
THE FOOD SHORTAGE. LETTERS FROM THE MAINLAND, INFORMATION
PROVIDED BY REFUGEES AND DEFECTORS, AND OTHER SOURCES HAVE
DESCRIBED WIDESPREAD MALNUTRITION AND DISEASE.
5, FOOD SHORTAGES HAVE FORCED THE CHINESE COMMUNISTS TO
LOOSEN THE CONTROLS ENFORCED BY THE COMMUNES TO ALLOW PEASANTS TO
TILL SMALL PLOTS, ENGAGE IN LIMITED PRIVATE PRODUCTION OF
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HANDICRAFTS, AND TRADE GOODS IN THE RURAL MARKETS. THESE
MEASURES HAVE AMELIORATED THE PEASANTS HARDSHIPS, BUT THEY HAVE
NOT FUNDAMENTALLY IMRRC,
CD THEIR LIVELIHOOD.
6. POPULAR RESISTANCE 10 MISERY HAS TAKEN THE FORM' OF BOTH
FLIGHT FROM THip F.A3NEN1lii TO ADJACENT AREAS AND FIGHTING AGAINST
THE REGIME. MORE THAN TWO MILLION Es(-APED BETWEEN 1950 AND 1961.
DURING 1961 MORE THAN FIVE THOUSAND ESCAPED TO HONG KONG AND
MACAO; TWO PILOTS FLEW AN AN-?, TO KOREA. SO FAR IN 1962 A WHOLE
OPERA TROUPE ESCAPED TO HONG KONG AND MACAO, AND A mIG-15 PILOT
LANDED HIS AIRCRAFT IN TAIWAN. ARMED UPRISINGS BROKE OUT IN
TIBET AND NINGHSIA DURING 1961. ISSUES 3 AND 4 OF THE 7962
EDITION OF RED FLAG ADMITTED THAT ABOUT TEN PERCENT OF THE
POPULATION WAS OPPOSED TO THE REGIME AND PART OF THE REMAINING
NINETY PERCENT WOULD NOT VOLUNTARILY SUPPORT SOCIALISM. THE
15 FEBRUARY 4962 ISSUE OF CHINA YOUTH REPORTED OLD REACTIONARIES
HAD NOT BEEN ELIMINATED AND A NEW CROP OF REACTIONARIES HAD COME
INTO EXISTENCE.
7, HIGH-RANKING CHINESE COMMUNIST OFFICALS HAVE NOT
DEFECTED ONLY BECAUSE OF EITHER THE STRINGENT CONTROLS EXERCISED
OVER THEM OR BECAUSE THEIR TRAINING CAUSES THEM TO BELIEVE THEY
CAN SURVIVE ONLY BY REMAINING AND CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE IN THE
PARTY, IN WARTIME, HOWEVER, BOTH THE CHANCE TO ESCAPE AND
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HOPELESSNESS OF FURTHER STRUGGLE WOULD RESULT IN HIGH-LEVEL
DEFECTONS; GRC EXPERIENCE DURING THE BANDIT SUPPRESSION CAMPAIGNS
ATTESTS TO THIS LIKELIHOOD.
8. THE ECONOMIC CRISIS HAD GIVEN RISE TO WIUZELIQIUP
FACTIONS WITHIN THE CHINESE CO UNIST PARTy ONE CLIQUE FAVORS
GOING SLOW AND IS PRO-SOVIET; THE OTHER CLIQUE FAVORS RADICAL
POLICIES AND IS PRO-MAO. ANTI-PARTY GROUPS HAVE ARISEN CONSISTING
OF FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER P1ENG TE HUAI; FORMER CHIEF OF GENERAL
STAFF, HUANG KO CH1ENG; FORMER COMMANDER OF GENERAL LOGISTICS
COMMAND, HUNG HSUEH CHIN; AND FORMER VICE MINISTER OF FOREIGN
AFFAIRS, CHANG WEN TIIEN. SEPARATISM HAS DEVELOPED IN CERTAIN
PROVINCIAL AND MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS AS WELL, WHICH THE PARTY
DEALT WITH IN 1960 AND 1961 BY TRANSFERRING PARTY PERSONNEL,
NOTABLY IN HONAN, TSINGHAI AND NINGHSIA PROVINCES.
9. SINO-SOVIET DIFFERENCES HAVE ARISEN, WHICH ARE
FUNDAMENTALLY A POWER CONFLICT BETWEEN KHRUSHCHEV AND MAO TSE
TUNG. KHRUSHCHEV HAS ATTEMPTED TO DEEPEN CONFLICTS AMONG THE
CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY CLIQUES IN ORDER TO WEAKEN MAO, AND THE
GO-SLOW CLIQUE OF THE CCP HAS LOOKED TO KHRUSHCHEV FOR SUPPORT
IN THE AWARENESS THAT IT COULD NOT STAND ALONE AGAINST MAO.
10. THE BREAKDOWN IN CENTRALIZED AUTHORITY AND THE PRESSURES
OF ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES HAVE FORCED THE REGIME TO REDUCE THE
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SCOPE OF MILITIA TRAINING BECAUSE SOME ARMED MILITIA UNITS HAD
COME UNDER THE CONTROL OF COUNTER REVOLUTIONARIES.
11, THE ARMED FORCES ABILITY TO FIGHT HAS, BEEN SEVERELY
WEAKENED. THE MIG-15 PILOT WHO DEFECTED TO TAIWAN IN MARCH 1962
REPORTED THE DIRE NEED OF AVIATION GASOLINE HAD REDUCED THE
NUMBER OF MONTHLY TRAINING FLIGHTS FOR PILOTS FROM EIGHT TO TEN
DAYS IN 1960 TO' TWO OR THREE DAYS PN 1961, AND FINALLY TO
ONE OR Two HOURS IN 1962. CADETS AT THE AIR ACADEMY COULD NOT
GRADUATE IN 1961 FOR LACK OF SUFFICIENT POL TO COMPLETE THEIR
TRAINING. SPARE PARTS FOR AIRCRAFT WERE ALSO IN SHORT SUPPLY.
NEARLY HALF OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST AIR FORCE WAS IMMOBILIZED
FOR LACK OF PARTS: INOPERATIVE AIRCRAFT COULD BE REPAIRED ONLY BY
CANNIBALIZING OTHER AIRCRAFT, THE AN-2 PILOT DEFECTOR REPORTED
PEASANTS HAD HURLED STONES AT LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT DUSTING CROPS.
INDOCTRINATION PROGRAMS IN THE ARMED FORCES HAVE BEEN INTENSIFIED
AS A RESPONSE TO SAGGING MORALE, SLOVENLY WORK PERFORMANCE,
AND ARROGANCE. THE RICE RATION IN THE ARMY HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM
21 OUNCES TO 17 OUNCES DAILY; BORDER UNITS GET ONLY 14 OUNCES,
MALNUTRITION, FATIGUE, AND ILLNESS IS CONSEQUENTLY PREVALENT.
THE GOVERNMENT HAS ASSIGNED SENIOR OFFICERS TO THE COMPANY LEVEL
TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE ARMED FORCES, THE NEW CHINA NEWS
AGENCY REPORTED ONE SUCH INSTANCE ON 31 JANUARY 1962.
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12. FOR COMMUNIST CHINA, 1962 IS THE YEAR OF DECISION,
THE 1 JANUARY 1962 ISSUE OF THE PEOPLE'S DAILY SAID SO, AND SO
DID THE FIRST 1962 ISSUE OF RED FLAG. THE COMMUNIST REGIME IS
NOW ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE, AND THE PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO
REVOLT AGAINST IT. SUCCESSFUL ORGANIZATION OF A WIDESPREAD
ANTI�COMMUNIST REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT DEPENDS, HOWEVER, ON
TIMELY GRC SUPPORT AND LEADERSHIP.
13. DISSEM: STATE COMUSTDC CINCPAC PACFLT ARPAC PACAF.
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,M.E,M 1 kNL'UM I. OR: Icir. honia;* Parrott
1.3i3 JEC : Discussion with President Chiang Lai-shek
RiZNC:L:
1. The attached memorandum on the above subject is for
General Taylor and Mr. Bundy 's information.
2. The memorandum reports a conversation which took
place on 24 January between President Chiang and Mr. 1,.zty
s Taipei representative. The meeting, which was requested
by President Chiang, lasted ior one hour and was attended by
the President's son, Chiang (,hing-k110.
THE� tPU'r PLAN) :
tttachment:
Memo
Lesmond l� itzG e raid
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