MEMO RE ANY RESCUE OPERATIONS INTO TEHERAN WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WOULD HAVE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 15791850
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: May 4, 2020
• Case Number: F-2013-00944
• Publication Date: November 15, 1979

Approved for Release: 2020/02/27 C01446172
TOP p7..C1
MEMORANDUM
15 November 1979
I believe that any rescue operation into Teheran within the next
two weeks would have a very low probability of success.
We need better to help you prepare for a decision on such an
operation, and on what the alternatives are.
� First, you deserve an explicit statement of the likelihood of
success of a rescue attempt. Recall that the JCS reviewed the plan
for the Bay of Pigs and judged it to have a "fair" chance of success.
To the military, "fair" is like a "D" in college; the White House
interpreted the JCS opinion as a "fair chance of success.")
Next, you need to know how the likelihood of success would improve
over time. You may not be able to control the timing, but you will want
to consider alternatives in this light.
In addition, you deserve optional rescue strategies that have
different political requirements. Only you can balance the political
costs with the changes in probability they afford.
I suggest that you ask the JCS and Secretary of Defense to prepare
a chart like the attached. (A second copy with only nominal entries is
also attached to provide a feel for how useful it might or might not be.)
Finally, you deserve a considered list of alternatives. If you
es.....hew a rescue operation, the pressure of public opinion will require
as immediate and decisive a set of actions as possible.
TO IECN: 1/SENS:FIVE
Pze 157 90124
Copy No. 1
Approved for Release: 2020/02/27 C01446172
Approved for Release: 2020/02/27 001446172
Attachment to TS-790124
RESCUE OPERATION OPTIONS
Plan Type of Operation
External
Support
Nov 20
Probability of Success* by:
Nov 27 Dec 3 Dec 10
,"Success" defined as 50% of hostages and rescue team exfiltrated safely.
Dec 17
Key Factors Driving
Probabilities
Approved for Release: 2020/02/27 001446172
Type of Operation
Air land rescue team; helo
to Tehran and return;
fly out.
Air land rescue team; helo
to Tehran and return;
fly out.
Air land rescue team;
infiltrate to Tehran;
exfiltrate by road to
air field.
Infiltrate attack team;
helo directly in and out.
Infiltrate attack team;
helo directly in and out. �
a
Infiltrate attack team;
helo directly in and out.
* "Success" defined as
Approved for Release: 2020/02/27
4 z
RESCUE OPERATION OPTIONS
External
Support
Probability of Success* by:
Nov 20 Nov 27 Dec 3 Dec 10
Very low Very low Low 'Low-Medium
Very low Low
Low-Medium Medium
Dec17
Medium
Medium
Very low
Very low
Very low
Low
Low-Medium
Not
Not
Not
Low
Low-Medium
possible
possible .
possible
Not
possible
Not
possible
Low
Low-Medium
Medium
Not
possible
Not
possible
Low-Medium
Medium
Medium-High
tages and rescue team exfiltrated safely.
TCIPAI- RETISENSITIVF
C
Approved for Release: 2020/02/27 001446172
15 November 1979
Attachment to TS-790124
Key Factors Driving
Probabilities
(b)(1)
Vulnerability of air
lead; availability of (b)(3)
helos.
Vulnerability of air (b)(1)
lead; aLilably of (b)(3)
helos. listanc(b)(1)
less; chance o and .(b)(3)
exfiltration higher.
(b)(1)
Difficulty Of exfiltra-(b)(3)
tion by r90..
(b)(1)
Need time to infiltrate(b)(3)
rescue team, helo
distance long.
Distances less.
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
Distances still less. (b)(3)