CURRENT IRAQI SITUATION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06849479
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2020
• Case Number: F-2017-02412
• Publication Date: October 8, 1992

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8 October 1992
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TAB A - Current Iraqi Situation
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8 October 1992
Current Iraqi Situation
Iraqi Kurds Attacking PKK
Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga are cooperating with Ankara to
attack anti-Turkish Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK) rebels based in
northern Iraq.
Iraqi Kurds, led by Mas'ud Barzani and Jalal Talabani,
began operations near the northern Iraqi border on
3-4 October They
are demanding the PKK fighters disarm and leave Iraq,
The Iraqi Kurds have already
started expelling the PKK from some northern villages.
o At least 13 Iraqi Kurds have been killed or wounded, and
about 40 PKK members have been killed
While these operations were underway, Iraqi Kurdish leaders
have publicly called for a federated Iraq, and the Kurdish
parliament voted on 4 October for a "federal" Kurdish state in
northern Iraq.
o While the meaning of such terms remains unclear, it is
likely these announcements were timed to coincide with
the joint operations in the hope that Turkey may be less
willing to denounce such statements than they have been
in the past.
Iraqi Military Activity
Iraq's military has reduced its country-wide alert initiated
in late August in anticipation of coalition attack.
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In the south, the Iraqis generally are respecting the no-fly
zone.
o Coalition aircraft have not been significantly threatened
by Iraq's ground-based air defenses.
the Iraqis may have
flown limited incursions�both with fixed-wing aircraft
and helicopters--into the no-fly zone to test coalition
response. The suspected violations, however, remain
unconfirmed.
The Iraqis continue to use ground forces against the Shia
insurgents
Meanwhile, Iraqi forces in the north continue to
sporadically shell Kurdish villages.
o The pace of shelling appears to have increased recently,
perhaps in response to Kurdish political developments.
o The Iraqis undoubtedly remain deterred by Provide Comfort
forces in the region from initiating major operations to
regain control of northern Kurdistan. Some units are
beginning to move into their winter dispositions, even
more defensively oriented than what we have seen since
spring.
Opposition Unity Builds at Conference
The Iraqi National Congress (INC) has improved its standing
by assembling a more diverse group of oppositionists with a
larger potential following inside the country. These actions
fall short of agreeing on a shadow opposition government because
membership in the national assembly has not been specified, and
relations between the institutions have not been worked out.
the conference decided on a
174-member national assembly, 25-minister government, and
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a three-member presidential council made up of
Syrian-backed Hasan al-Naqib, Kurdish leader Mas'ud
Barzani, and Iranian-backed Shia religious leader
Muhammad Bahr al-Ulum.
o Conference participants agreed their major goals are to
overthrow Saddam, establish a security zone in the South,
and lobby for international economic assistance for the
Kurds and the Shia
o The next meeting is scheduled to be held in northern Iraq
on 23 October.
Syria and Iran apparently decided not to oppose the
conference, despite their lingering concern that the opposition
might, if successful, threaten Iraq's territorial integrity.
o Muhammad Baqr al-Hakim, head of the Tehran-based Supreme
Assembly for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI)--the
largest Shia opposition group--apparently was either
reluctant to risk appearing in Iraq or was unwilling to
fully support the conference and sent his deputy instead.
SAIRI may be interested in
publicly distancing itself from Iran because leaders
believe the connection diminishes the chance of
international acceptance.
The INC has probably increased its credibility in the eyes
of other dissidents in exile by meeting inside Iraq, but will now
need to demonstrate its ability to cultivate support inside of
the country.
o Leading up to the next scheduled meeting, INC leaders
probably will try to elicit increased support from states
neighboring Iraq, and increase grassroots political
support inside the country.
Personal rivalries and the opposition of regional states
still threaten fragile opposition unity.
� Barzani's nomination to the executive, though done with
acquiescence of his longtime Kurdish rival Talabani,
expands Barzani's role in opposition circles and may
strain relations between the Kurdish leaders in the
future.
o Non-Kurdish groups may fear perceived Kurdish efforts to
dominate the INC, and also that Kurdish groups will make
unreasonable political demands in exchange for their
military support.
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