IRAQ: TRANSITION CHALLENGES AFTER THE ELECTION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06763185
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2019
• Case Number: F-2017-02379
• Publication Date: January 14, 2005

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TI
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Iraq: Transition Challenges after the Election (U)
Iraqis will face political uncertainty and potential
gridlock beginning after the national election as the
Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI)
works to certift the results and as the newly elected
Transitional National Assembly (TNA)�with
minimal guidelines�strives to transition to the Iraqi
Transitional Government (ITG). The Transitional
Administrative Law (TAL) specifies neither
procedural rules for the 'TNA nor any deadline for the
TNA's first task�choosing Iraq's President:
� The analysis below assumes a TNA in which the
Shia receive more than 50 percent of the seats, the
Kurds receive around 20 percent, and no one ethnic
or religious group garners the two-thirds majority
necessary to elect Iraq's Presidency Council.
� It also assumes that the TNA hews closely,
especially at first, to the few rules laid out in_the_
TAL for forming the ITG.
Getting to the First Assembly Session (U)
Immediately following the election, the Independent
Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI) will need to
certify the results and adjudicate any challenges to
them. The lack of a large contingent of international
monitors combined with the prospect of low Sunni
Arab participation suggests electoral challenges are
likely. The IECI has not issued regulations for
certifying the vote, and the TAL is silent on the
procedures and timeline for the process:
� The IECI will be able to announce the
names of the 275 National Assembly members at a
press conference approximately two weeks after the
election
14 January 2005
� If any Assembly members-elect die or resign before
certification, the IECI will determine their
replacement; the IECI has not announced guidelines
for such a decision. After certification, the TNA
will need to enact a law dealing with member
replacement, according to the TAL.
After the IECI announces the TNA membership, the
TNA will convene and begin the process of naming
the executive authority and its own leadership. The
TAL specifies that the oldest member of the
Assembly chair the first meeting but is mostly silent
on setting the Assembly's internal rules. TNA
wrangling over how it operates could precipitate
lengthy debates and significant delays.
Dissolving the IC (U)
The TAL states that the IG will dissolve after the
election upon formation of the ITG but provides little
clarity on the precise moment when the 110 formally
comes into existence. Iraqis,may argue about the
timing for the IG Prime Minister, Cabinet, and
Interim National Council to lose authority during the
transition process, which may take six weeks or
longer:
if the IG is dissolved
before all components of the ITG executive are up
and running, Iraq could face confusion in its day-to-
day administration of security, reconstruction,
diplomatic relations, and participation in
international organizations.
� At the same time, if the IG functions during this
period as more than a "caretaker" and makes key
decisions that bind the ITG, or if IG ministers
This report was prepared by the Office of Iraq Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed
to the Chief, 01A, (U)
01A SF 2005-30004
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--tE613k,17
successfully lobby to stay in power in the ITG, the
credibility of the new government could be
damaged.
Article 28 of the TAL�which prohibits ITG
members in the Assembly, Presidency Council, or
Cabinet from holding other government positions�
might seriously hamper the IG if it prompted
resignations of newly elected Assembly members
who are also IG ministers.
Forming the ITG (U)
The TAL mandates that the Assembly choose a
Presidency Council�a President and two Deputy
Presidents�by two-thirds majority "from a single
slate." The TAL specifies no deadline for this action,
and gridlock could set in as disparate groups seek to
build coalitions to reach the two-thirds majority:
� Once elected, the Presidency Council must then
unanimously choose a Prime Minister within two
weeks, and the Prime Minster has one month to
name a Cabinet. The Presidency Council, Prime
Minister, and Cabinet ministers are not required to
be members of the TNA. The Presidency Council
also will appoint nine members of a Federal
Supreme Court and name one to serve as Presiding
Judge.
� The TAL also charges the TNA with electing, from
its members, a President and two Deputy Presidents
of the Assembly. The TNA President will be the
candidate receiving the most member votes, with
the First and Second Deputy Presidents being
elected by the second and third highest vote totals.
2
Potential for Delay and Gridlock (U)
Although the Shia are likely to win more than 50
percent of TNA seats, they will face difficulties
agreeing among themselves in choosing the new
executive authority, even if Sistani's United Iraqi
Alliance (U IA) wins the bulk of the seats:
� The UlA is a shaky coalition of independents and
16 parties, and the independents make up around 50
percent its list; it is not likely to remain a coherent
bloc after the election. Some UlA parties joined
multiple electoral lists and will gravitate to others
with similar ideological views.
� If Prime Minister Allawi's list performs well and
rivals the UlA's showing, the debate between
secular and religious Shia members could become
contentious.
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ItCRElls
� In return for the Presidency of Iraq and concessions
on federalism, Kurdish leaders probably would
back most of the well-known Shia Prime Minister
aspirants, including Allawi, Da'wa head Ibrahim
Jafari, or senior SCIRI official Adil Abd al-Mandi.
Shia leaders are aware that they will need to reach out
to the Kurds and Sunnis to build a government, and
they appear willing to make some concessions to gain
cooperation. The Shia have stopped short of making
any pre-election promises, however, and probably are
waiting to gauge the extent of their victory:
"Shia leaders recognize that the Sunnis could
achieve the two-thirds majority needed in three
predominantly Sunni provinces to block ratification
of the draft constitutioni
Sistani's son
Muhammed Riddha would be comfortable giving
the Kurds substantial authorities under a federal
system in exchange for supporting the constitution,
� Ammar al-Hakim, son of SCIRI leader Abd al-Aziz
al-Hakim, acknowledged to the press that the
Sunnis will need assurances that the new
constitution would not advantage any specific sect.
He has raised the idea of allocating a certain
number of Assembly seats or leaders in nositions in
the new, government to Sunni Arabs.
Forming the Iraqi Transitional Government (U)
.National election
IECI certifies results
TNA seated
'ITG Presidency Council chosen
(TAL gives no deadline)
ITG Prime Minister chosen
(must be within two weeks of
Presidency Council selection)
ITG Cabinet named
(must be within one month of Prime
Minister selection)
Vote of confidence in ITG
1G dissolves
UNCLASSIFIED
30 Jan
15 Feb (est.)
late Feb (est.)
mid Mar (est.)
mid Mar-
early Apr (est.)
mid Mar-
early Apr (est.)
mid Mar-
early Apr (est.)
mid Mar-
early Apr (est.)
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Executive and Legislative Leadership Positions in
the Iraqi Transitional Government (U)
Final Step:
Executive Position
PRIME MINISTER
COUNCIL OF MINISTERS - 25
� A PM is chosen by unanimous Presidency Council
agreement, and the PM nominates the Council of
Ministers.
� The PM has national command authority and
day-to-day responsibility for the government.
� The PM and Ministers require a vote of confidence
by simple majority from the Transitional National
Assembly (TNA).
� The Ministers propose the national budget and appoint
representatives to negotiate international agreements.
Second Step:
Executive Position
EXECUTIVE PRESIDENCY COUNCIL - 3
1 President, 2 Deputies
� The TNA elects a President of the State and two
Deputies on the basis of a single list and by two-thirds majority
of members' votes.
� The Council represents the sovereignty of Iraq; names a Prime
Minister (PM), approves Ministers, and appoints members to the
nine-member Federal Supreme Court.
First Step:
Legislative Position
TRANSITIONAL NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (TNA) - 275
1 President, 2 Deputies
� The TNA votes for a President; the top three vote-getters fill the positions
of President and First and Second Deputy.
� The TNA has legislative authority, approves ministerial appointments, and can impeach
the Executive President.
UNCLASSIFIED
NESA 398332A101-05
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