MEXICO: OPPOSITION PLOTS NEXT MOVE

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06795620
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2019
• Case Number: F-2018-02576
• Publication Date: July 26, 1988

Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C06795620
Director of
Central
Intelligence
ekof
T e c
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
26 July 1988
II
II
II
II
Ill
ICS 2873/88 (OP.: 532
II
cret
CPAS MD 88-173JX
TCS 2873/88
26 July 1988
b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C06795620
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C06795620
b)(3)
Contents
NR Record
Mexico: Opposition Plots Next Move
NR Record
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C06795620
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C06795620
To t
Mexico's System for Adjudicating Electoral Disputes
The Federal Electoral Commission�staffed on a proportional basis by all registered political
parties and chaired by the Secretary of Government, a ruling-party appointee�determines
official election results. Parties or Individual candidates intending to challenge specific results
not resolved by the Commission itself must file complaints with the Electoral Tribunal, a panel
of seven judges appointed by the government and empowered to rule on such cases. The
Tribunal must expedite disputes and reach a decision not later than five days before the
installation of the Electoral College, now scheduled for 15 August.
The Electoral College, composed of the newly elected, ruling-party-dominated legislature, will
certify the election. Any party that enters in an agreement not to participate in the Electoral
College will have its official registration canceled.
In addition to the process outlined above, separate legal options�such as civil suits and
criminal complaints�may be pursued, although the Electoral Tribunal was created by the
ruling party to limit access to the courts by the opposition.
Top
TCS 2873/88
26 July 1988
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C06795620
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C06795620
� (b)(3)
MEXICO: Opposition Opposition Plots Next Move
The opposition apparently has decided to focus on legal means
to everturn Carlos Salinas's election as president, but the ruling
party's �troLo the legal apparatus is likely to frustrate these
tactics.
The leftist"opposition wants to show that it can mobilize popular
Support by calling for a national protest to coincide with the
convening of the Electoral College on 15 August. According to press
reports, it also has mounted an array of legal challenges to Salinas's
election, including suits before the Electoral Commission and the (b)(1)
Electoral Tribunal, leftist leader (b)(3)
Cuauhtemoc Cardenas may attempt to organize an opposition
boycott of the Electoral College to undercut the credibility of the
Salinas win. Cardenas may also try to build a' case for a constitutional
challenge of the legality of the election by persuading at least one
state leoislatUre to certify him independently as the new president, (b)(1)
(b)(3)
Rightwing presidential candidate Manuel Clouthier has called for
a national referendum on the legitimacy of the vote and for a
continuation of civil disobedience, but his
party remains divided over confrontational tactics
the party will not collaborate with the left's efforts
to protest the outcome of the election, in part because it has evidence
that Cardenas used anti-Salinas contacts within the ruling party to
tamper with the balloting himself.
Comment: The legal maneuvers the leftist strategists are
contemplating are not likely to overturn the election because the
ruling party controls the legal system and has enough votes in the
Electoral College to sustain Salinas's win. Furthermore, the
traditionally fractious nature of the leftist coalition and the right's
refusal to coordinate efforts with the Cardenas camp probably
preclude an effective boycott of the Electoral College or joint efforts
in the new congress to support any constitutional challenge.
Cardenas�already facing financial problems�will find it difficult
to attract sustained financial backing to maintain his political
momentum after the Electoral College convenes.
If attempts to seek legal redress fail, the opposition will have to
decide whether to confront the government in the streets or seek
accommodation with the ruling party on terms dictated by the
incoming Salinas administration.
5
TiFiP-Sectect
TC9 2873/88
26 July 1988
(b)(3),
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2019/05/13 C06795620