DELAYED POPULATION COUNTS IN KEY COUNTRIES HINDERING NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06776858
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2018
• Case Number: F-2019-00249
• Publication Date: January 23, 2013

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INTELLIGENCE
I ASSESSMENT
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Delayed Population
Counts in Key Countries
Hindering National Development
Plans
23 JANUARY 2013
CIA-DI-13-00118
-C-014-f-143-F-BLIL81..
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INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
Delayed Population
Counts in Key Countries Hindering
National Development Plans
23 JANUARY 2013
(U) This assessment was prepared by the Office of Africa, Latin America, and
Global Issues. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to
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Delayed Population Counts in Key
Countries Hindering National Development
Plans
(u) Key Findings
Twelve countries have gone more than 10 years since last conducting a
census, which has hindered the national development plans of their governments
and challenged the ability of the international community to provide development
and humanitarian assistance. Of the 12�Afghanistan, Angola, Burma, Cote d'Ivoire,
Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Guinea, Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, Somalia,
and Uzbekistan�half have incomplete registration systems for recording births,
deaths, and population movements. This information gap makes a regular census a
necessity for accurately projecting demographic trends and for instituting
governance policies.
According to CIA analysis, census delays in 10 of the 12 countries are the
result of instability or resource constraints. Iraq, for example, has delayed its
census several times because of insecurity and disputes over how to count the
population of regions settled by Arab tribes during Baath Party rule that were
previously inhabited by non-Arab minorities.
�_______political resistance to enumeration is also a factor why countries have
delayed their censuses. Lebanon has not conducted a census since 1932
probably because an updated census would reveal changes in the religious
makeup of the country that would indicate that the balance of political power in
the legislature established by the constitution and subsequent political
agreements is out of date.
7�Several countries will most likely be receptive to assistance from
US agencies, international organizations, and NGOs to support their census efforts
and registration systems. The UN, for example, assisted Kosovo's census in 2011,
which required international observers to ensure that the results were credible and
widely accepted.
� he international community could support countries struggling to conduct
a full country enumeration every 10 years by supporting alternative methods of
conducting censuses�such as using household surveys or sample surveys�as
long as they have functioning registration systems, such as in Lebanon and
Uzbekistan.
� elping developing countries to improve their registration systems will be
key to improving their enumeration systems and preparing them to eventually
conduct a census.
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(u) Scope Note
This intelligence assessment examines countries that have not conducted a
national census for more than 10 years and how the failure to do so hinders
national development plans.
�Ctrtl-f-1-9-164LIMI
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(U) FIGURE 1
Countries With Delayed Population Counts
Country
Date
Reason for
Government
of Last
Delay
Agencya
Census
Afghanistan
1979
Instability
Central Statistical
Office
Angola
1970
Instability;
resource shortages
National Institute
of Statistics
Burma
1983
Resource
shortages; lack
of political will to
enumerate
Central Statistical
Organization
Cote
d'Ivoire
1998
Instability
National Institute
of Statistics
Democratic
1984
Instability
None
Republic of
the Congo
Eritrea
1984
Instability
National Statistics
and Evaluation
Office
Guinea
1996
Instability;
resource shortages
National Statistics
Directorate
Iraq
1997
Instability
Central
Organization
for Statistics
and Information
Technology
Leba non
1932
Lack of political
will to enumerate
Central
Administration
for Statistics
Pakistan
1998
Instability
Statistics Division
Somalia
1975
Instability
Statistical
Department
Uzbekistan
1989
Lack of political
will to enumerate
Ministry of
Statistics
Basis of Current Population Estimates
1979 census
� 2006 Afghan Health Survey is used for
mortality estimates.
1970 census
� Mortality is modeled using estimates
from a 2006 Mali survey.
1983 census
� Official estimates of mortality from
Cyclone Nargis in 2008.
1998 census
� 2006 UNICEF Multiple Indicator Survey.
1984 census
� 2007 Demographic Health Survey.
1984 census
� 2002 Demographic Health Survey.
1996 census
� 2003 UNICEF Multiple Indicator Survey.
� 2005 Demographic Health Survey.
1987 census
� 1997 census not accepted by
international community because of
lack of transparency on coverage,
methodologies.
1970 sample microcensus
� 2007 survey conducted by Lebanese
Ministry of Planning.
1998 census
� 2006-07 infant/child mortality survey.
1975 census and 1980 survey of
the population.
1989 census
� 2002 Uzbekistan Health Survey.
a(u) Government agency responsible for producing national statistics and working with international
organizations providing enumeration assistance.
UNCLASSIFIED
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Delayed Population Counts in Key
Countries Hindering National Development
Plans
The failure of countries to complete a timely
national census complicates their economic and
political development, including, in some cases, their
ability to form representative governments. Censuses
provide governments with critical demographic
information�such as total population, age structure,
and growth rates�to help them manage their countries
and show current and future trends in fertility,
mortality, and migration.1
� (u) Twelve countries�Afghanistan, Angola, Burma,
Cote d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Eritrea, Guinea, Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, Somalia,
and Uzbekistan�have not conducted a census in at
least 10 years (see figure 1).2
� (U) Afghanistan, Angola, and Somalia have not
conducted a census since at least 1980, and
Lebanon last completed a census in 1932.3
Key Reasons for Enumeration Delays
Instability, resource shortages, and a lack of
political will are the primary reasons governments fail
to conduct censuses, according to CIA analysis of the
12 countries that have not conducted a recent census.
Countries establish their own census schedules, and
there is no international agency that levies
requirements or a timeline for a census to occur. The
United Nations Development Program (UNDP),
however, recommends that all countries produce
detailed population statistics at least once every
10 years or establish strategic plans to gather
population statistics!' The lack of funds, trained
personnel, and strategic plans to conduct a census
sometimes cause countries to delay indefinitely,
according to UNDP.5 (See appendix A for the extensive
preparation needed to conduct a census.)
� (U) Instability in Afghanistan, Angola, Cote d'Ivoire,
the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eritrea,
Guinea, Iraq, and Somalia has created large
unsecured areas that have prompted governments
to curtail censuses. Most of these countries have not
conducted a census since before 1990
� (U) The UN postponed plans to conduct a census in
Afghanistan�stipulated by the 2001 constitution�
because of deteriorating security in the country,
The UN is working with the government to substitute
an alternative method to a full enumeration. Under
this plan, the Afghan Government would conduct a
rolling, province-by-province large-scale survey during
the next two years
� (U) Iraq has delayed its census five times since
2003, postponing in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010, and
2011. The government initially postponed the
census because of insecurity, but more recently it
has delayed because of disputes on how to count
populations in regions settled by Arab tribes during
the Baath Party rule that were previously inhabited
by non-Arab minorities and Kurds.1011
� (U) Pakistan's enumeration has been delayed
four years past the expected census date in 2008
because of security concerns, flooding in some
areas, and the lack of resources needed to conduct
the head count in a country with an estimated
population of 190 million, according to local press
reports.12 13 14
� (U) Burma announced in 2012 that it will enumerate
in 2014 with the help of international donors and the
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Thirty years
have passed since the last full census because of
the government's inability to access parts of the
country and its resistance to international
assistance.15
I AL
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Lack of political will or government resistance
to enumerate seems to prevent some governments
from undertaking a census, particularly in nations
where demographic data factors into the composition
of representative governments or could change the
balance of political power. For example, Lebanon's
constitution apportioned parliamentary seats between
Christians and Muslims in a 6:5 ratio using results
from the 1932 census. With no new population counts
that would probably show a Muslim majority, political
agreements have changed the ratio of parliamentary
seats to a 1:1 ratio because demographic weights of
those groups are unknown,
Delayed Censuses Hinder National
Development
The lack of a census can hinder a country's
economic and political progress and often impedes
support from the international community to improve
governance or humanitarian conditions. Census
statistics are instrumental in assisting governments to
target funding to populations, to plan education and
health-care programs, and to develop urban and rural
infrastructures. Governments and NGOs can also use
census-derived population data to identify gaps in
services being provided to vulnerable segments of
society.17
� (u) Incomplete population statistics in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, have
made it difficult for Kinshasa and international
organizations to efficiently measure mortality, which
hampers strategic national development plans to
prevent infectious diseases, malnutrition, and
neonatal conditions. Alternative methods to gather
and apply population data can produce incorrect
results. For example, the International Rescue
League, after conducting five mortality surveys
between 1998 and 2007, had to apply rates to the
median population of 10 separate population
estimates for the country that ranged between
56.8 million and 69.9 million. The results produced a
wide range of excess deaths-300,000 to 600,000�
during a nine-year period.1-8
Low Confidence for Older Census
Data
Censuses older than 10 years may
introduce errors in national projections. When
a census is delayed, population estimates are
created by modeling small sample sizes or by
applying assumptions about a country's
fertility, mortality, and migration. These
projections are susceptible to biases and
errors from shortcomings in models and data.
Demographers have low confidence in
estimates when censuses are older than 10
years because they are unable to use them to
accurately project trends,
� (U) With no census in Eritrea since it gained
independence in 1993, international agencies and
the government have used different target
population estimates and growth rates to determine
vaccine and immunization coverage. A small error in
the growth rate calculation could change the
coverage estimate by as much as 15 percent and
would increase funding reauirements
Incomplete census data, especially information
on religion, ethnicity, or languages spoken, make it
difficult for the international community to help
countries make plans to enhance the
representativeness of their governments. Censuses
also give governments an opportunity to demonstrate
a commitment to upholding rights of confidentiality
and the ability to protect information from misuse.
� (U) Pakistani political analysts underscored the
importance of the 1998 census in the allocation of
National Assembly seats to each province on the
basis of population for the general elections
in 2008.2�
2
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� (U) The lack of statistics on Somalia's population
has handicapped the international community's
ability to determine where best to position limited
resources or plan for future endeavors. Better
demographic data could assist development
planning, such as deciding where to establish
school facilities in urban areas to accommodate the
high volume of internally displaced children,
(u) Opportunities for the United States �
Several of the 12 countries that have not held
a census for many years will most likely be receptive to
assistance from US agencies, international
organizations, and NGOs that have the technical
expertise and experience to support census efforts and
registration systems. In the past, these organizations
have often worked successfully with national statistical
offices to plan, carry out, and evaluate censuses,
registrations, and the results of each. International
actors can help by sharing costs, assisting with the
mobilization of resources, and supporting alternative
methods to a full census by encouraging the use of
registration systems. These are important aspects of
developing countries' enumeration processes and
international assistance can help prepare these
countries to eventually conduct their own censuses.
(U) UNFPA and the US Agency for International
Development (USAID) have worked with foreign
governments to identify challenges and call on
international donors or demographic experts to assist
with nearly all phases of censuses
� (U) UNFPA and IPC work with governments to ensure
adequate financial resources, logistical support, and
international census quality standards. They work
with the host country's statistical office to prepare for
censuses, allocate resources and provide technical
expertise.23 24 This assistance provides governments
with expertise to ensure censuses are well executed
and to plan other enumerations by themselves.
� (U) Effective international mobilization of resources,
such as census maps, satellite imagery,
data-processing equipment and international
observers, has since 2010 assisted Chad, Kosovo,
and Nigeria with completing their censuses,
(Li) The high costs to developing countries of
establishing civil registration systems that track births,
deaths, and population movement can be shared
among international and national government
agencies and NGOs that stand to benefit from the
improved data.27
� (U) The UN and the World Health Organization assess
countries' registration systems for accuracy and
connectivity and work with statistical agencies and
support personnel to improve data collection.28
National governments and the international
community benefit from access to birth, death, and
migration data collected by registration systems that
show current trends in these areas.
�
The international community could support
alternative methods of conducting censuses (see
appendix B) in countries that have functioning
registration systems but that so far have failed to
complete enumerations, such as Lebanon and
Uzbekistan. The.other 10 of the 12 countries that
have not held recent censuses have limited or
incomplete civil registration systems,
3
CON NTIAL
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(U) APPENDIX A
Census Timeline
(t.n Taking a census requires extensive financial and logistical resources as well as a
consistent public relations effort to encourage broad participation.
� (U) A census can be broken down into a series of projects and phases. Major tasks
show the complex nature of a census, establishing a cycle that becomes the basis for
producing accurate and timely census data.
Phases in time (years)
Census Day
-3 -2 -1
Planning and Preparation/ Evaluation
Questionnaire Design
(Mapping
-0
Field Operations
Data Processing
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1111141MM,MMIIMISIMIMMM .
(Li) Note: Census process and phases may vary by country. Three-year
advance planning is required at a minimum, and four to five years is
recommended by the International Program Center, US Census Bureau.
(u) Cyclical Censuses Offer Opportunities
� (U) Censuses conducted on a regular basis�usually every 10 years�establish a cycle
that keeps the vital planning and preparation stage from entering a static state. While
success is marked by the completion of each phase, lessons learned continually inform
the planning phase and assist future efforts.
UNCLASSIFIED
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(U) APPENDIX B
Census Techniques
' Alternatives to Conducting a Traditional Census...
' A majority of countries that conducted a census between 2000 and 2010 carried
out a traditional, full enumeration of their population�canvassing the entire country
to collect information on all individuals and on a range of topics. Not all countries take
this traditional approach, however. Some governments employ an alternative method
to obtain statistics similar to a full census. A growing number of European countries,
for example, are adopting a mixed approach to taking censuses by using data from
registrations, household listings, or sample surveys. This approach may be a model that is
helpful to countries struggling to conduct a traditional census.
Census Techniques
Traditional
Register-based
Combination of traditional
census and register-based
Register-based with
sample survey
Rolling census
Combination of traditional
census with yearly updates
Modeling
(under development)
Preconditions
Short or long census forms and
established delivery methods�mail,
phone, online, personal visit follow-up.
Established central registation system.
Trained interviewers validate
preexisting information from census
and registration system.
Partial registration systems and data
from sample surveys.
Ability to conduct complex sampling
and modeling techniques.
Ability to conduct multiyear programs to
develop, track, and test census design.
Ability to use sample results to model
the relationship between information
and sample questions.
Countries
Canada
Colombia
Norway
Spain
Israel
Netherlands
France
United States
Peru
None yet
. .. Require Functioning Registration Systems
Alternative techniques for enumerating have been developed, tested, and
implemented around the world, but such methods require a functioning and trusted civil
registration system. Civil registration systems can fill data gaps between censuses if they
issue official records for births and deaths and track internal and external population
movements. Births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and sometimes migration are typical
vital events recorded by a country's registration system. These records create a numerical
profile of the nation, supply statistics essential for planning services for the population,
and maintain legal documents that give proof of identity for individuals.
� There are no international requirements for uniformity among national registration
systems. The completeness of reporting on vital events depends on a country's laws for
registration and the implementation of those laws.
UNCLASSIFIED
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