NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 13 MARCH 1982

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05065655
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2018
• Case Number: F-2018-01012
• Publication Date: March 13, 1982

Approved for Release: 2018/06/08 C05065655
Director of
Central
Intelligence
Top Sccrct
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
13 March 1982
Top Secret
CO NID 82-060JX
13 March 1982
Copy 252
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The National Intelligence Daily is prepared in the
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articles are attributed to their authors.
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Contents
/ El Salvador: Status of Government Offensive
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Santa Ann
Current
military offensive
Kilometers
631377 3-82
Guatemala
Honduras
TEGUCIGALPA
thsurge_at Pace area To'o\a. 1 e destroyed
-- 3,---i ,--\
,' Moiazan 4.)
-,
�'
*San Vicente , Current \ San Fraicisco
military offensive ..---'yi 1
oundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
--,Gcel'o de
Fonseca
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0 EL SALVADOR: Status of Government Offensive
9
The large-scale Army operation launched early this week in
central El Salvador has encountered only light resistance.
The leader of one of El Salvador's major rightist parties
has offered a plan for defeating the insurgents and fostering eco-
nomic recovery.
The Salvadoran military has begun another operation
in the west near Santa Ana against an insurgent base area
Meanwhile,
the guerrillas have destroyed the bridge over the Torola
River in northern Morazan Department. As a result, much
of the sparsely populated area near the Honduran border
is isolated from the regional capital.
Comment: Other new Army campaigns also are likely
against guerrilla base areas as the elections approach.
As the destruction of the bridge in Morazan demonstrates,
however, the insurgents can still score successes in
hit-and-run raids. Establishing polling places in
northern Morazan will now be difficult.
(b
(b
Rightist Plan
Ultraconservative leader Roberto D'Aubuisson has
informed US officials that he would immediately impose
a "state of war" if his National Republican Alliance
wins a majority in the elections. He contends that this
--continued
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13 March 1982
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eLL e
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would facilitate increased military action against the
insurgents. He also would institute universal conscrip-
tion.
In addition, D'Aubuisson indicated that he would
grant unconditional amnesty to all guerrillas and sug-
gested that the US assist by offering temporary asylum.
He advocated confiscation of property belonging to the
immediate families of proved insurgents unless the owners
cooperate with the government.
D'Aubuisson believes economic recovery should be
tied to a "free market" policy designed to encourage
greater private sector investment and production. He
noted that he would make additional low-interest credit
available to businesses.
Comment: A government headed by D'Aubuisson would
(/ further polarize the country, force some political mod-
7,erates into hiding or exile, and almost certainly alienate
Zi international backers. He would ultimately face a greater
/ guerrilla challenge more openly supported by foreign
governments.
Prospects for economic improvement will remain bleak
until foreign and domestic lenders and investors become
convinced that the insurgency is no longer a threat and
(4 that the political situation has stabilized. D'Aubuisson's
proposed increases in low-interest credit would violate
f) the terms of a recent agreement between San Salvador and
/ the IMF, jeopardizing a key three-year aid package
totaling $300 million for 1983-85.
2
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--T.e.p-Smrur
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