EASTERN EUROPE AND USSR: MILD WINTER WEATHER AIDS ECONOMIES

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06141929
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 28, 2018
• Case Number: F-2017-01874
• Publication Date: May 10, 1988

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SUBJECT:
10 May 1988
Eastern Europe and USSR: Mild Winter Weather
Aids Economies
1. The attached memorandum is an assessment of the effects of the past
winter's weather on agriculture and industry in Eastern Europe and USSR.
Additional memoranda on Soviet crop conditions will be issued periodically
during the remainder of the crop season, especially if crop prospects change
markedly.
2. This assessment was produced by the
Agricultural Assessment Branch, Strategic Resources Division, Office of
Global Issues.
3. Comments and questions are welcome and may be addressed to the
Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch
DATE .5
DOG NO
OIR
p PD
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Frif Office of Global Issues
Attachment:
GI M 88-20050, May 1988
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�e014-F1-14ENTIAT
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SUBJECT: Eastern Europe and USSR � Mild Winter Weather
Aids Economies
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Cential Intelligence Agency
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Washington. D. C. 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
10 May 1988
Eastern Europe and USSR: Mild Winter Weather Aids Economies
Summary
Mild winter weather in Eastern Europe and the USSR improves the
economic growth outlook for this year. In agriculture, the outlook for winter
grains generally is better than the last few years, even though some field
stands may be thin and require spring replanting in parts of Yugoslavia,
Romania, Bulgaria, and the Ukraine. With an improved winter grain crop,
Moscow is in position to exceed the good harvests of the last two years if the
coming spring grain crop is at least average. Also, the mild weather allowed
for some growth in livestock products following three years of tight supplies
due to harsh winter weather. In industry, weather-related disruption in
production may be the smallest in recent years as a result of above normal
temperatures and below normal snowfall. With fewer weather-related
transportation bottlenecks, industrial production should be off to a good start
as well.
This memorandum was prepared by
Assessments Branch, Strategic Resources
Additional contributions were made by
Office of Soviet Analysis and
European Analysis. Comments and questions
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
the Agricultural
Division, Office of Global Issues.
Office of
GI M 88-20050
may be directed to
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CONFIDENTIAL
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Eastern Europe and USSR: Mild Winter Weather Aids Economies
This winter's weather has been Unusually mild throughout Eastern
Europe and much of the European USSR. Warmer-than-usual temperatures
and below-normal snowfall likely kept productivity in agriculture and industry
higher than in recent winter periods, thus suggesting that lagging economic
growth may pick up this year. In agriculture, winter grains -- representing
about 30 percent of total grain production in the USSR and up to as much as
60 percent in Poland and East Germany -- got off to a good start and will
likely suffer below average winterkill. The weather also allowed output of
livestock products -- meat, milk, and eggs -- to hold up better than usual
during the winter. In industry, the mild winter reduced demand for heating
fuel and lubricants throughout Eastern Europe and much- of the USSR
compared with the same period in 1987. As a result', fewer energy-related
bottlenecks interrupted industrial production. In addition, major supply
backlogs did not develop as rail and truck transport operated relatively
smoothly as compared with recent years.
Winter of 1988: A Marked Change
In contrast with the previous three years, January through March
weather was mild throughout Eastern Europe and the more populated regions
of the USSR (see figure 1). In addition, snowfall rarely occurred in Eastern
Europe and was considerably less than normal in the European USSR. (U)
Winter temperatures were exceptionally mild throughout Eastern Europe
with temperatures averaging from 2 degrees Celsius above normal in Romania
and Bulgaria to near 4 degrees Celsius above normal in parts of Poland. The
consistently mild temperatures caused most of the wintertime precipitation to
fall as rain. Indeed; with the exception of a two-week period in late January
and early February, when many areas were covered by 10 to 20 centimeters
of snow, there was no other significant snowfall. By contrast, snow cover
the previous winter was substantial and persistent from late December until
mid-February. (U)
Winter temperatures were slightly above average throughout much of the
European USSR, except for the North Caucasus and southern Volga valley,
where temperatures were slightly below normal. Although snow depth
frequently is not reported in the Soviet Union, analysis of temperature, of
water-equivalent precipitation measurements, and of weather satellite imagery
indicates that snowfall likely was below historical norms and substantially
lower than last year's high levels.
Good Start for the Economies
Winter weather often has an important impact on economic performance in
the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. In agriculture, severe cold
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Figure 1
Comparisons of Winter Temperatures for the Past Five Years.1
Eastern Europe
Temperature Departures from Normal (Celsius)
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4 �
3 �
2 �
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-1 �
-2 �
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-6-
7
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
European USSR
Temperature Departures from Normal (Celsius)
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4
3
2
0
-1
-2
-3
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7
1���
74
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4
04
04
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1
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1221 January
February
March
January
EN February
0M4
March
1 Data are derived from averaged temperatures of approximately 180 locations
in Eastern Europe and 160 locations in European USSR. Climatological normals
are computed from 21 years of temperature data to calculate temperature
departures. (U)
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temperatures and a lack of protective snow cover can result in substantial
losses of winter grains. Such low temperatures also can reduce livestock
productivity while increasing feed requirements. In 1987, for example, these
conditions resulted in a loss of about 30 percent of the winter grain crop and
sizeable reductions in the production of meat, milk, and eggs. In industry,
severe cold, particularly if compounded by heavy snow, can interrupt
supplies of industrial products and energy, escalate transport backlogs, and
increase equipment breakdowns. Conversely, a mild winter, such as this
year's, can improve performance in these sectors of the economy.
Agriculture
�. Winter weather throughout Eastern Europe- and .the USSR was mostly
favorable and winter grains entered spring in generally good to excellent
condition. Indeed, we estimate that winterkill this year will be below normal
in most areas. If favorable weather continues, winter grain yields and
livestock production could be above the levels of recent years in many
regions.
In Eastern Europe, mostly favorable autumn weather allowed for timely
sowing and healthy establishment of winter grains. A late summer drought
limited soil moisture and may have thinned winter grains in parts of
Yugoslavia, Romania, and Bulgaria. However, timely autumn rainfall ended
further losses and above average yields are still possible if favorable weather
continues.
In the Ukraine and North Caucasus -- the primary winter grain growing
region of the USSR -- winter temperatures were generally near normal and
adequate snow cover protected the crop from a severe cold snap in late
January. However, a cool, dry fall sent winter grains into dormancy early
and somewhat weakened. This was especially so in parts of the central and
southern Ukraine where soil moisture levels were inadequate for good crop
establishment. Nevertheless the mild winter will likely keep winterkill below
the 18 percent average of previous years and well below last year's 30
percent winterkill.
Warmer-than-average temperatures and lower precipitation also eased the
often difficult task of maintaining high levels of meat, milk, and egg
production during the winter months throughout Eastern Europe and
especially the European USSR. According to the Soviet central press,
lengthy stabling periods -- with their accompanying problems of water supply
and waste disposal -- were not necessary this year in large areas of the
country. During the first quarter of 1988, meat output in the USSR was 2
percent above the same period last year and average yields of milk and eggs
were up by 6 and 5 percent, respectively. Moreover, with winter
temperatures averaging 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above normal, the need for
livestock grain feed in Eastern Europe and the USSR was probably reduced
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substantially as compared with requirements for the same period in 1987.
Industry
The milder-than-usual winter this year benefited -industry by allowing
larger than expected growth in production. The region's industries benefited
from the weather in four main ways:
� Lower than average energy consumption by the populace because of
lower heating needs left more energy available for industrial uses
than was the case in recent years. The lower consumer demand for
energy in Poland even contributed to a slight fall in energy output
from the -previous year.
� Many industrial processes consumed significantly less energy with
milder temperatures, so the greater relative availability of energy
allowed plants to operate at higher capacity. This is particularly
true for the energy-intensive industries, such as steel, aluminum,
and cement, which are the backbones of Soviet and Eastern European
heavy industry.
� The smoother operation of the transportation network helped plants
avoid shutdowns caused by shortages of raw materials and spare
parts.
� Milder weather extended the construction season in some countries.
For example, construction was reported ahead of schedule in
Hungary, where building activities increased 150 percent in January
compared to the previous year.
Even Romania improved its economic picture, but problems remain due to
energy shortages and conservation restrictions.2 This is a typical problem
and cannot be blamed on weather -- winter temperatures for Romania
averaged 1.7 degrees Celsius above normal. Rather, Bucharest has
consistently failed to maintain energy facilities and has not had much payoff
from investments in hydroelectric and nuclear power stations due to drought
and construction problems. Moreover, Ceausescu's efforts to pay off
Romania's foreign debt, oblivious to the welfare of the people, contributed to
domestic energy shortages by directing energy supplies toward export and
industry in order to earn hard currency.
2 The press reported, however, that Bulgaria imposed energy rationing
measures in the fall to forestall a possible disruption from another harsh
winter.
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Outlook
Clearly, the relatively mild winter has allowed the Soviet and East
European economies to achieve their best early season performance in several
years. In agriculture, the mild winter and much improved outlook for winter
grain production in Eastern Europe and the USSR as compared to last year
could substantially boost total grain production for these countries in 1988.
If, for example, weather in the Soviet Union continues to be favorable over
the next six months, the Soviet winter grain crop could reach 80 million tons.
This would represent a 17-million-ton gain over our estimated winter grain
average of the last two years, when the overall Soviet grain crop first
exceeded 200 million tons for two consecutive years.
In industry, the mild winter will likely result in a largely improved first
quarter output from the industrial sectors in most of the countries compared
to 1987. Milder temperatures and much reduced snow cover should improve
factory output and rail shipments of industrial goods as compared to the
harsh winters of recent years when production was down and heavy snows
delayed rail shipments. In the USSR the disruptive effects of Gorbachev's
modernization program may well offset the positive effect of the first quarter's
good weather. Performance for the year as a whole, however, will depend in
large measure on events yet to unfold.
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