INDIA-PAKISTAN: FORCE LEVELS, TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06759925
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 31, 2018
• Case Number: F-2017-00912
• Publication Date: February 9, 1987

Approved for Release: 2018/12/19 006759925_
Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(
Monday
9 February 1987-,
II
It
17,;� ET32/8? COP: .51,Q--
II
II
-Tap-Secret_
CPAS NID 87-032JX
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9 February 1987
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Warning Notice
This Document Not To Be Reproduced
Intelligence Sources or Methods Involved
(WN)
National Security Unauthorized Disclosure
Information Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Dissemination Control
Abbreviations
NOFORN (NF) Not releasable to foreign nationals
NOCONTRACT (NC) Not releasable to contractors or contractor/consultants
PROPIN (PR) Caution�proprietary Information involved
ORCON (0C)
Dissemination and extraction of infnrmation
controlled by originator
REL... This information has been authorized for release to...
FGI
WN
Foreign government informatign
WNINTEL�Intelligence sources or methods involved
Abbreviations for compartmented codewords are:
M - MORAY S - SPOKE U - UMBRA
R - RUFF Z - ZARF G - GAMMA
The National Intelligence Daily is prepared in the
Central Intelligence Agency in cooperation with the other
US foreign intelligence organizations.
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(b)(3)
Special Analyses
India-Pakistan: Force Levels, Tensions Remain High 10
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NR Record
NR Record
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(b)(3)
Special Analysis
�t)
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Force Levels, Tensions Remain High
The agreement this week to reduce forces in the border area is
likely, if implemented by both sides, to reduce tensions and to
provide the basis for continuing efforts to defuse the current
situation. New Delhi appears determined to follow through with
the Brass Tacks IV. exercise, however, which is scheduled to
continue until April, and each side is almost certain to retain a
higher-than-normal military presence in sensitive border areas
at least until the exercising forces return to garrison.
So far, both sides have deployed forces to provide defense against a
sudden attack by the other. With the juxtaposition of heavily armed
regular Army forces, a shooting Incident could escalate quickly to
more intense fighting, which could involve major forces on each side.
Both countries appear prepared for a localized border conflict now.
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
Although India and Pakistan have taken steps to increase their overall
military preparedness, particularly in the immediate border area,
neither has taken the steps it would consider necessary for offensive
action. Forces in the immediate border area are primarily infantry
divisions, not the armored or mechanized units that both sides would
rely on to press a major assault (b)(3)
India, if unconstrained by efforts to conceal the transition to a war
footing, would be prepared to launch a major invasion of Pakistan
and to bring the country to a war footing in 48 to 72 hours. Islamabad
could achieve similar preparedness in 48 hours (b)(3)
Ground Forces
dia now has
-�6ene 160,000 men and 600 tanks in position near the order. These
forces are backed up by the cream of the Indian Army�including
100,000 troops and 1,100 tanks�in the desert training area near the
border but out of position to support an invasion of Pakistan.
Islamabad considers these armored and mechanized forces to be the
greatest threat, and their movement out of the training area probably
would be seen as unambiouous evidence that India was preparing to
invade
Pakistan has some 145,000 troops
and 850 tanks near the border, including its two armored divisions
held in strategic reserve opposite Kashmir and Punjab. Islamabad
considers these two divisions as necessary to counter any Indian
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�Tap-Secret--
(b)(3)
Warning Indicators
Indicator
Pakistan
India
Armor and mechanized
forces move to preinvasion
positions.
Air Forces would fly to
dispersal fields and stand
down to conserve fuel and
spare parts.
Navies would depart for the
Arabian Sea.
Ammunition depots show
heightened activity.
Civilian assets mobilized,
such as trucks, rail, and
hospitals.
Stepped-up propaganda;
hostile statements by senior
officials.
Both armored divisions field
deployed; one to return to
garrison.
Pakistan planning
countrywide exercise this
month.
Fleet at Karachi.
No significant activity.
No significant activity.
Public officials making
conciliatory statements.
Strike corps remain in desert
training areas.
Tactical training continues;
SAMs deployed to most
airfields.
Most warships in port;
amphibious force on east
coast.
Minor activity at two border
munitions depots.
Some civilian trucks being
used for exercises; military rail
traffic given priority.
Press beginning to question
Gandhi's crisis management
style.
(b)(3)
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breatjw Delhi sees them as the primary Pakistani invasion
forces
Air and Naval Forces
The Air Forces of both sides�already among their most combat-
ready units in peacetime�have further increased their readiness.
Both Air Forces couia
undertake rm*cm�cet_ato�iiirsupport ground combat with little
warning
Navies have not traditionally played a major part in Indo-Pakistani
wars, and current naval dispositions probably are not considered
threatening by either side Bah Navies are on alert, but most ships
remain in port.
Continued Risks
During the initial implementation of the limited withdrawal
agreement, Indian and Pakistani forces probably will continue to take
additional steps to increase readiness elsewhere. The momentum of
India's buildup should begin to slow next week, however. Because
either side Mild pain a Sll r_b_s_taitiaLadvantaaelav_cheating on the
agreement Doth will
continue to eye eacn otner warily; a perception or cheating could
trimer new deolovments and a new round of increased tensions.
-1-6-0-seefes,
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