EL SALVADOR: IMPENDING INSURGENT OFFENSIVE

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06749626
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2018
• Case Number: F-2018-00722
• Publication Date: November 19, 1981

Approved for Release: 2018/06/08 C06749626
ma. �
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Director of
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Intelligence
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0 4 32
Approved for Release: 2018/06/08 C06749626
Approved for Release: 2018/06/08 C06749626
Wareing Notice
This Document Not To Be Reproduced
Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(liVN)
National SecwIty Unauthorized Disclosure
biformatioa Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2018/06/08 C06749626
Approved for Release: 2018/06/08 C06749626
Contents
El Salvador: Impending Insurgent Offensive 1
USSR: Plcrnned Increase for Energy Investment
Lebanon: Tension Increasing in the South
Taiwan: Outcome of Local Elections
USSR-US: hUritime Boundary Talks
Special Analysis
2
6
6
7
Sudan Nimeiri 'a Prospects a
:
-Top-Bennet,
19 November 1981
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OX�115 1141
POOR QUAtITY PAGE
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.4
EL SALVADOR: Impending Insurgent Offensive
The insurgents are preparing a limited offensive to be launched
before the end of the year aimed at erpanding their areas of control
and damaging the junta's credibility.
In addition to disrupting the vital coffee, sugar,
and cotton harvests, the guerrillas plan attacks on the
two hydroelectric dazes on the Lempa River. The dams
supply half the nation's electrical power, and serious
damage to them would be a major blow to the ailing econ-
omy.
The insurgents intend to increase their interdiction
of the road system. If they cut the remaining major
bridges across the Lempa River, the junta's control over
much of the northern and eastern parts of the country
will become tenuous. The Salvadoran military has only a
limited capability to move troops by air, and without
overland access to these regions, reinforcing isolated
garrisons will be difficult.
The guerrillas also hope to seize several small
towns, and they may then declare "liberated" zones in
areas .:inder their control. They have been discussing
formation of a revolutionary government aimed at attract-
ing broader domestic and international support and under-
mining the junta before the constituent elections next
March.
The military, aided by improved intelligence, is
attempting to preempt insurgent actions by more vigorous
offensive operations, particularly against those areas
near key economic and military targets. It should be
able to prevent any major defeats, but the insurgents
could score some spectacular local successes.
-Terleerat.-
19 November 1981
Approved for Release: 2018/06/08 C06749626