SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06629408
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 11, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-02334
• Publication Date: February 20, 2003

Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629408
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SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
20 February 2003
PASS SEIB 03-041CHX
Iraq: Humanitarian Challenge in the South
A focus by coalition forces on reaching and securing Baghdad could lead to populations in
unsecured towns in southern Iraq facing a situation of chaos with little access to basic
services and relief Authority broke down in the south in 1991 as Iraqi military forces were
rapidly evicted from Kuwait and spontaneous uprisings in major cities led to widespread
upheaval. Fast-moving battlefield developments would threaten the region with a similar power
vacuum affecting local services.
-- Conditions could rapidly deteriorate in a matter of days. Shortages of running water
during the Gulf war prompted many Iraqis to use polluted water from rivers or canals,
and loss of electric power because of damage during hostilities could immediately shut
down water treatment plants.
Humanitarian needs would build after the onset of a conflict. While virtually all of the 8.5
million Iraqis in the south rely on oil-for-food program rations, many would not immediately
need additional food because the regime since December has provided them double food rations
that possibly could last weeks presumably to bolster morale and help
compensate for shortfalls during a conflict.
-- About half of those receiving food rations probably will have sold at least a portion of
their rations to earn cash, however, and would have little food in reserve, and
new food deliveries would stop once fighting began
because UN workers would be evacuated.
-- The World Food Program plans to pre-position 4,000 metric tons of food--enough to feed
about 700,000 people for one week--in Iran and Syria but lacks trucks to distribute food
in southern Iraq. The Iraqi military's conscription of vehicles would add further serious
impediments to aid distribution.
-- Efforts to replenish food stocks from sources outside Iraq would depend on keeping open
Umm Qasr port, the entry point for more than 90 percent of humanitarian aid, and
reopening Al Basrah port, major portions of which remain obstructed from the Gulf war.
Most Iraqis in the south are likely to remain in place because Kuwait, as well as Iran, Jordan,
Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, have announced they will not accept refugees, and as a result the
UN estimate that 50,000 Iraqis will head to Kuwait may be too high. Many Iraqis probably
would leave their homes temporarily after a conflict began, sleeping in rural areas and returning
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to their homes when it seemed safe.
-- Thousands of Iraqi elites and their families probably would flee southern cities and head
to Baghdad to avoid revenge killings.
Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629408