MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05241569
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: March 10, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-02129
• Publication Date: July 25, 1983

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
NIC No. 5388-83
National Intelligence Council 25 July 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Milton Kovner
National Intelligence Officer for Western Europe
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THROUGH
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FROM
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SUBJECT
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Monthly Warning Assessment: Western Europe
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Italy
3. The elections in June -- which are likely to result in a
reconstituted five-party government -- have changed the familiar frame of
reference for Italian politics. With the Christian Democrats down to its
lowest total ever (32.8 percent), they are only 3 percentage points above
the Communists, and there are signs that both parties may stay at these
levels for some time. The smaller parties have gained, but the
Socialists -- at 11.4 percent -- grew far less than they had hoped.
Socialist leader Craxi is nevertheless expected to become prime minister
of the new government, which many observers already expect to be short
lived, particularly if agreement among the five-party coalition proves
difficult over economic policies, and labor-management accord breaks down
in the fall. Analysts believe that the government will be capable only
of producing a watered-down austerity program, one not sufficiently
strong to lower the inflation differential between Italy and most other
OECD countries. One achievement, however, of a Craxi government -- if it
lasted long enough -- could be movement on electoral and institutional
reform, for which there is growing backing in Italy. The Communists, who
fear being outflanked on the left, have vowed stiffer opposition to
austerity -- as well as public support for anti-INF efforts -- but the
PCI will still want to convey a sense of responsibility and will probably
be more reactive than provocative.
INF
4. West Germay/Krefeld Incidents: The recent violence during Vice
President's Bush's visit to Krefeld confirms the potential of radicals to
infiltrate peace marches and points toward similar attempts to expolit
the demonstrations expected this fall. The mutual recriminations over
handling the Krefeld incidents between state- and federal-level
authorities has at least put Bonn on notice about the need for better
coordination among security agencies. While the possibility of
Krefeld-like violence may discourage some participation in subsequent
peace demonstrations, politicians are citing the events in arguing for
tightened laws governing demonstrations. A compromise between the FDP
and CDU/CSU coalition partners has been reached on changes to
anti-demonstration legislation, but it is not certain that new laws will
be passed before the fall. If they are not, peace activists may be
radicalized as much by the parliamentary debate as by INF deployments
themselves. Some analysts believe that new legislation risks becoming an
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inflammatory civil-rights issue and will be held by demonstrators to be
"another step" to restrict liberties. Others contend that the public can
accept a good deal of police action before it becomes a civil liberties
question, aq lATIP AS 't is clear that demonstrators have provoked
violence. (b)(3)
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