MONTHLY WARNING AND FORECAST MEETINGS FOR OCTOBER 1984

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05241932
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2016
• Case Number: F-2016-00701
• Publication Date: November 5, 1984

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
5 November 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: John J. Bird
National intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning and Forecast Meetings for October 1984
1. Summary of key warning issues:
USSR
The major role played by Chernenko at the recent plenum has quieted
discussion about the General Secretary's near-term departure. Chernenko seems
newly invigorated and politically active, and this situation will probably
drag on as long as his health does not seriously weaken.
Ogarkov's appearance in East Berlin and Romanov's and other's comments
about him have added further to speculation that he will soon assume command
of an activated, expanded or reorganized Western theater of military
operations. If a new Western theater command becomes a permanent fixture of
the Warsaw Pact forces, there might be some reduction in clarity or timeliness
of warning.
Berlin
There has been some escalation of Allied negotiating efforts to reach a
satisfactory solution to Soviet unilateral actions concerning the air
corridors and the possible closing of the Glienicker Bridge. Use of the
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bridge by Allied Military Liaison Missions is frequent and viewed as being
important. Reportedly the GDR has been unresponsive to Bonn's offer to
negotiate a financial arrangement for repair of the bridge. The bridge
closure date of 15 November becomes politically significant if the practical
matters of bridge repair financing are being discouraged. Berlin is evidently
of mounting concern.
USSR/Southern Africa
Analysts generally believe the Soviets have suffered a major setback in
Mozambique and a lesser one in Angola. Moscow is probably concerned about the
possibility of other reversals. Soviet-Mozambican exchanges continue despite
Machel 's statement that he wants the Cubans out of his country by the end of
next year. In Angola, the Soviets are playing to their strength--providing a
high level of arms--and do not seem to be seriously pressuring the MPLA on
policy or personnel decisions.
El Salvador
The FMLN remains capable of small-scale attacks, but not of a
countrywide, coordinated offensive which could bring the FMLN to power. A
larger question is whether Duarte can hold the military leadership behind him
in his negotiating initiative.
Nicaragua
There is no evidence of introduction of advanced aircraft into Nicaragua,
but military equipment continues to be received at a brisk pace.
China
Elements of eight Chinese divisions are in the vicinity of Kunming near
the Sino-Vietnamese border. We doubt that the buildup presages further
incursions into Vietnam, but it would ensure some control of the pace and
scope of the fighting and prevent a recurrence of the counterattacks that
occurred in June and July. It probably represents plans to step up pressure
on Vietnam to affect Kampuchean operations during the next dry season.
Korea
\a nuclear reactor
under construction in North Korea is of a type suitable for producing
significant quantities of weapons-grade plutonium. It could be operational
three years from now, and could then produce enough plutonium for one to two
nuclear weapons per year. There is no evidence, however, of work on a
reprocessing facility that would be required to separate this plutonium from
spent reactor fuel, and no evidence of a nuclear explosives design effort.
Seoul views the developments in North Korea with concern, but probably
not as a near-term threat. 1
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Chad
The joint French-Libyan withdrawal is proceeding at a slow pace and is
likely to continue into December. Habre can take little comfort from his
position in Chad. Violence is continuing in the south amid reports and rumors
of harsh retaliation by Habre's northern troops against southern dissidents.
The withdrawal may well usher in a new cycle of fighting between Habre and
Libyan-backed dissidents.
Africa
There is a growing interest and concern with the food crisis in Africa
with much focus on the situation in Ethiopia and southern Africa. The
intelligence community must be especially alert to the political impacts of a
worsening food crisis throughout the continent and the ability of African
governments to effectively absorb and distribute assistance.
2. Trend Commentary
Mid East
Despite the recent indications of greater cooperation among the moderate
Arab states, most analysts agree that Syria still holds the veto on the peace
process and this gives them exceptional regional leverage. Nevertheless,
there is a flexibility in the Arab world that warrants our attention.
Regional states with close ties to the Us,r have
acted on their own without informing us. Such a trend would be
counterproductive to US interests.
Iran-Iraq
The threat of an effective Iranian offensive in the Basrah region is all
but ended. Iraqi defensive preparations are strong and signs of Iranian
redeployments suggest Iranian troop strength is reduced in the area. The most
likely area for further Iranian military action is in the central area. The
"Kurdish problem" and recent Turkish-Kurdish clashes may auger larger
implications for the outcome of the war and demand our continuing examination.
Nuclear Proliferation Issues
Recent leaks to the media concerning possible Indian responses to
Pakistan's program and speculation that the US was offering Pakistan a
"nuclear umbrella" have aggravated the already heightened tensions between
India and Pakistan.
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John J. Bird
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5 November 1984
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning and Forecast Meetings for October 1984
Distribution:
Cy 1 - DCI (w/att)
Cy 2 - DOC' (w/att)
Cy 3 - Executive Director (w/att)
Cy 4 - SA/DCl/IS (w/o att)
Cy 5 - Executive Registry (w/att)
Cy 6 - C/NIC (w/att)
Cy 7 - DDO/C/EPDS (w/att)
Cy 8 - DDO/C/PCS (w/att)
Cy 9 - VC NIC w att)
Cy 10 - DDI Rep/SAC Omaha (w/o att)
Cy 11 - DDI Rep/OLL (w/o att)
Cy 12 - 0/AG (w/o att)
Cy 13 - NIO/AF (w/o att)
CY 14 - NIO/AL (Hutchinson) (w/o att)
Cy 15 - NIO/AL (Low) (w/o att)
Cy 16 - NIO/EA (w/o att)
Cy 17 - NIO/GPF (w/o att)
Cy 18 - NIO/LA (w/o att)
Cy 19 - NIO/NESA (w/o att)
Cy 20 - NIO/Econ (w/o att)
Cy 21 - NIO/SP (w/o att)
Cy 22 - NIO/USSR (w/o att)
Cy 23 - NIO/Europe (w/o att)
Cy 24 - NIO/S&T (w/o att)
Cy 25 - NIO/CT (w/o att)
Cy 26 - NIO/FDIA (w/o att)
Cy 27 - D/CPAS (w/o att)
Cy 28 - D/OCR (w/o att)
Cy 29 - D/SOVA (w/o att)
Cy 30 - D/EURA (w/o att)
Cy 31 - 0/ALA (w/o att)
Cy 32 - D/OIA (w/o att)
Cy 33 - D/NESA (w/o att)
Cy 34 - D/OEA (w/o att)
Cy 35 - D/OGI (w/o att)
Cy 36 - D/OSWR (w/o att)
Cy 37 - C/COMIREX (w/o att)
Cy 38 - OD&E/F0 (w/o att)
Cy 39 - OD&E/F0 (w/o att)
Cy 40 - C/HRC (w/o att)
Cy 41 - James Lucas, WHCMF (w/o att)
Cy 42 - NWS (w/o att)
Cy 43 - DDI/IPC (w/o att)
Cy 44 - C/SIGINT Corn. (w/o att)
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Cy 45 - SRP (w/o att)
Cy 46 - DDI/CRES (w/o att)
Cy 47 - Director, Defense Intelligence Agency (w/o att)
Cy 48 Director, INR (w/0 att)
Cy 49 INR/IC/RD (S. Kuser) (w/0 att)
Cy 50 - A/NIO/W (w/o att)
Cy 51 - SA/W (w/o att)
Cy 52 - NIO/W Chron (w/o att)
Cy 53 - NIO/W Subject File (w/att)
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