CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/04/29

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03163329
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: April 29, 1959

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29 April 1959
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
TOP SECRET
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DOCUMENT NO.
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,29 APRIL 1959
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR notifies UAR that next phase
of Aswan Dam aid is ready ahead of
schedule.
Chinese Communists have broken up
rebel concentrations in Tibet and are
blocking escape routes.
Soviet delegation takes less rigid posi-
tion on nuclear test inspection issue.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Turkey increasingly concerned over
Communist threat in Iraq.
Singapore - Moderates' chances in
30 May general elections further
dimmed by failure to unite against
Communist-infiltrated People's Ac-
tion party.
III. THE WEST
0 Adenauer still favors Etzel over Erhard
as next West German chancellor, and
may try to force showdown within Chris-
tian Democratic Union.
0 France hints at possible military inter-
vention in Guinea.
0 Panama - Invaders have gained little
local support; De la Guardia govern-
ment strengthened by responses to his
aid appeals.
IV.
0 Conclusions of the special USIB
committee on the Berlin situa-
tion.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
29 April 1959
K
DAILY BRIEF
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet Union - UAR: Moscow has informed the UAR High
Dam committee that survey work and detailed plans concern-
ing the Aswan Dam have been completed almost three weeks
ahead of schedule and that Soviet experts are now prepared
to discuss construction details with UAR representatives.
Moscow is evidently trying to reassure Cairo that Soviet eco-
nomic aid is not tied to oli " al relations between the two
countries. (Page 1)
Tibet: Chinese Communist forces have by now probably
broken up �cncentrations of rebels in southeaatern Tibet,
although the terrain permits continued activity by small groups.
the Chinese are trying to
seai me main passes on the southern Tibet border and have
blocked the escape route used by the Dalai Lama. Possibly
5,000 Tibetan refugees have so far entered India and Bhutan,
but it will now be increasingly difficult to cross the border,
Sib-Indian relations continue to deteriorate)
(Page 2)
*USSR�Nuclear test talks: The Soviet delegate to the
Geneva talks stated on 28 April that if the number of inspec-
tions of suspected nuclear explosions to be permitted each
year is agreed upon in advance, the USSR will drop its de-
mand for a veto on the dispatch of inspection teams. In
addition, the USSR will agree to permanent inspection groups
in the USSR, and permit automatic inspection when control-
system instruments indicate a suspicious event. However,
the Soviet representative contended that the annual number
of inspections to be allowed was a political decision and not
related to any technical information or report. In his 23 April
letter to President Eisenhower, Khrushchev said there would
?!naturally" be few such in
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/ II. ASIA-AFRICA
gy
'turf
Turkey-Iraq: nkara is increasingly concerned over the
gravity of the Communist threat in Iraq and its implications
for Turkish security. Prime Minister Menderes has requested
immediate US-Turkish talks on the question. Meanwhile, Turk
ish officials have announced that 700 Kurdish tribesmen from
Iraq have been granted asyrm These are the first refugees
noted crossing this border.
Sin apore: (Chief Minister Lim Yew Hock's efforts to unite
modera, e forces to oppose the Communist-infiltrated People's
Action party in the 30 May general elections have thus far failed.
The moderates have nominated a large number of competing can-
didates. In contrast the People's Action party has filed a
strong slate of candidates restricted to one for each assembly
seat) (Page 3)
III. THE WEST
West Germany: 6.,_d enauer still strongly opposes selection
of Economics Minister Erhard as the next chancellor,feeling that
It would be difficult to dominate Erhard from the presidency.
Finance Minister Etzel is Adenauer's choice. If Adenauer tries
to block his nomination, Erhard plans to force a showdown vote
in the Christian Democratic Union party caucus, where he now is
supported by about 200 out of 270 votes. A date for choosing the
new chancellor has not been decided on by the CDU leadership)
(Page 4)
France-Guinea: (t'rance has implied it may react to Guinea's
receipt of arms shipments from Czechoslovakia by undertaking
military intervention in Guinea. De Gaulle's diplomatic adviser
describes Guinea's neighbors which are members of the French
community as most anxious regarding Guinea's intentions. De
Gaulle has turned down the American-British suggestion that
France promptly appoint an ambassador to Conakry as an ex-
pression of Western friendship) (Page 5)
29 Apr 59
DAILY BRIEF ii
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Panama: The armed invaders apparently have not gained
the local support which they expected from opponents of _Pres-
ident de la Guardia. Prompt reaction by the Organization of
American States and the delivery of US military equipment to
the National Guard have thus far deterred opponents of De la
Guardia who might otherwise have moved against him.
(113-1t. *An invasion ship carrying 100 men, was reported to have
left Cuba on 28 April for Panama or Nicaragua. Such force
probably would be spotted by search planes being made avail-
able to the OAS investigating committee now in Panama.
l(page 6)
IV. CONCLUSIONS OF SPECIAL USIB COMMITTEE
ON BERLIN SITUATION
The USIB has taken note of the following conclusions reached
by its special committee on the Berlin situation. The committee
pointed out that its conclusions were to be used in context with
SNIE 100-2-59 (24 February 1959) and with the review of that es-
timate in SNIE 100-2/1-59 (17 March 1959):
1. There are as yet no clear indications of Soviet
negotiating tactics at Geneva: (a) By such moves as the
21 April notes to the US and West Germany, the USSR is
seeking to divide the Western allies and soften Western
positions. The Soviets are also preparing the ground for
blaming the West for any failure to reach agreement.
(b) While there are no clear indications of what will
emerge from the meeting of bloc foreign ministers at
Warsaw, it appears to be intended primarily as a dem-
onstration of bloc unity and a counter to the Paris meet-
ing of the Western foreign ministers.
2. A West German poll shows that willingness to
risk hostilities over the Berlin access question is far
stronger in West Berlin than West Germany. There were
no significant changes in the West Berlin economy and
morale.
29 Apr 59
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3. Orime Minister Ma,cmillants clear indication
that he will not call general elections this spring will
tend to increase the pressure on his government to
seek a negotiated settlement of the Berlin crisis)
4. While the USSR will not turn over access con-
trols to East Germany in the near future, the physical
transfer could be accomplished with little or no warn-
ing.
5. There are no reliable indications of a bloc
Intent in the near future to blockade Allied or West
German access to West Berlin, or to seal off West
Berlin from the bloc. However, the Soviets could take
such actions with little or no warning.
29 Apr 59
DAILY BRIEF iv
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Moscow Seeks to Dispel UAR Fears of Economic Reprisals
Moscow is attempting to show the UAR that the Soviet
Union plans no economic reprisals for Nasir's anti-Commu-
nist campaign in the Middle East. On the heels of Khrushchev's
conciliatory letter to Nasir, Radio Moscow announced in reply
to UAR and Western press comments that "any talk of stoppage
of Soviet aid to the UAR has no foundation." Since then Moscow
has informed the UAR High Dam committee�almost three weeks
ahead of schedule--that the study and detailed plans for the Aswan
High Dam have been completed, and that Soviet experts are pre-
pared to discuss details of construction with UAR representatives.
Cairo, for its part, has announced that the UAR minister of public
works will head a committee of experts who are scheduled to fly
to Moscow next we 7k for further discussion concerning the dam.
Now that final deliveries of a 200,000-ton wheat consignment
are being made, shipments of machinery, fertilizer, paper, and
other commercial goods are beginning to arrive at Egyptian ports.
Additional deliveries are being scheduled,
Bloc petroleum shipments to the UAR also
are continuing. Thus far in 1959 they have averaged 200,000 tons a
month, well above last year's monthly average 01 150,000 tons.
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Tibetan Situation
.6-11 concentrations of Tibetan rebel forces have probably
been broken by Chinese Communist troops driving into the
Khamba-occupied area of southeastern Tibet,
Despite Peiping's intense effort to crush
the revolt, however, the rugged terrain and availability of local
food sources will permit continuing activity by small rebel bands,
the Tibetan capital
was "absolutely quiet," but :he Chinese were making every
effort to seal Tibet's borders with Bhutan, Nepal, and India.
They have blocked the escape route used by the Dalai Lama,
he said. Possibly 5,000 refugees, however, have succeeded
in reaching Bhutan or India within recent weeks, and small
groups are expected, with i reasing difficulty, to continue
straggling across the border
Sino-Indian relations have deteriorated to their lowest
level in years. The National People's Congress heard a parade
of speakers charging Indian officials with "expansionist" denial
of China's sovereignty over Tibet and with complicity in the
Dalai Lama's statement denying abduction from Tibet. Press
reports from New Delhi state that on 27 April the Chinese Com-
munists had officially protested the defacing of Mao Tse-tung's
picture by an Indian mob.
Prime Minister Nehru, angered by Chinese Communist
attacks on India despite his efforts to calm the situation, has
accused Peiping of using the "language of the cold war." He
said Peiping's charges against India were "so fantastic I find
it difficult to deal with them." He stated that he had made a
formal protest to Peiping. Nehru apparently believes that his
past efforts to avoid recriminations have been interpreted in
Peiping as a sign of weakness and intends to make Communist
China aware that such charges could have serious effects on
Sino-Indian relations.
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Prospects for Left-Wing Victory in Singapore Elections
Enhanced
6.ailure of the conservative political parties in Singapore
to reach agreement on a unified slate for the 30 May general
elections has greatly enhanced the prospects of the Communist-
infiltrated People's Action party (PAP). Party officials now be-
lieve the PAP will win 30 to 40 of the 51 Legislative Assembly
seats at stake. The party's strong list of candidates includes
the popular former mayor, Ong Eng Guan, and 12 city councilors
who resigned from office on 18 April. The PAP appareqly has
avoided serious competition from other left-wing parties)
(The other Singapore parties have nominated numerous com-
peting candidates despite Chief Minister Lim Yew Hock's plans to
form an anti-PAP coalition to prevent fragmentation of the mod-
erate vote, Lim's moderate Singapore People's Alliance nominated
39 candidates and the conservative Liberal Socialists 32. In addition,
there are 34 independent candidates as well as nominees represent-
ing ten other parties. Even Lim may have trouble retaining a Leg-
islative Assembly seat in his supposedly "safe" district. The PAP
candidate in this contest may slip through with a plurality victory
while Lim splits the non-PAP votes with his bitter enemy, former
Chief Minister David Marshall, and with a Liberal Socialist candi-
date)
6hief Minister Lim may be able to force the withdrawal of
some of the moderate candidates. It is doubtful, however, if any
action taken by him at this late date, short of instigating disorders
to force postponement of the elections, can reverse the trend toward
a PAP victory)
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III. THE WEST
Nov
eii-auer Strongly Opposed to Erhard as West German
Chancellor
(West German Chancellor Adenauer strongly opposes Eco-
nomics Minister Erhard as his successor because he thinks
Erhard will not be firm enough in foreign nolinv.
Adenauer feels that Erhard would be "soft or compro-
mising" in situations calling for firmness and would be inclined
to cooperate with the opposition Social Democratic party (SPD9
Cinance Minister Etzel is Adenauer's choice. A CDU Bun-
destag deputy, who is a strong supporter of Adenauer, believes
the chancellor is convinced that as president he can dominate
Etzel but not Erhard. Krone believes that Adenauer might ulti-
mately attempt to reject the presidency and remain as chancellor
rather than accept Erhard as his successor)
If Adenauer attempts to block Erhard's nomination by ac-
clathation, Erhard is prepared to force a showdown vote in the
CDU Bundestag faction, where he is supported by 200 out of 270
deputies. He is reported to have been assured of the support
of 55 Bavarian deputies and expect8 opposition only from among
the 87 deputies from North Rhine -.Westphalia, the Etzel-Adenauer
stronghold.)
Ehe SPD leadership is seeking legal grounds to compel Ade-
nauer to resign as chancellor as soon as he is elected president
on 1 July, thus forcing the issue of appointing a new chancellor
and aggravating the tension within the CDU. One argument is
that Adenauer should resign since as chancellor he would initiate
political decisions which he would later be called on to consider
as president thereby violating tliP nonpartisan character of the
presidency.)1
SEeRET
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IDEA-11E, AN"
France May Plan Military Intervention in Guinea
The French representative to the tripartite talks on Africa
stated that France takes an "extremely serious view" of recent
developments 51 Guinea and implied that France may undertake
military action
members of the French Cam.-
munity which are neighbors of Guinea are "most anxious" regard-
ing Conakry's intentions. Paris also charges that by accepting
bloc overtures Guinea has failed to observe its January treaty
arrangements with France)
(1ollowing the arrival in Conakry last month of Czech mili-
tary and other material, a Polish vessel unloaded further 'VIM"
from Eastern Europe on 16 April. Included in this consignment
were 500 tons of obsolete arms, including three light tanks and
four trucks, and 700 tons of nonmilitary items. A third shipment,
reportedly consisting of 600 tons of "machines," is expected to
reach Guinea soon)
Paris does not feel that sending economic aid or strengthen-
ing security forces in surrounding areas are appropriate measures
for counteracting possible Communist penetration of Africa through
Guinea, De Gaulle on 24 April "vetoed" the British-American rec-
ommendation that France promptly appoint an ambassador to Conakry
as an expression of Western friendship. The British, however, are
considering accrediting their ambassador resident in Monrovia
simultaneously to Conakry. Soviet ambassador Gerasimov, with a
staff of seven, arrived in Conakry by air on 16 April. A Czech
charg�resented his credentials on 11 April and a Bulgarian
ambassador has been in residence in Conakry since late January.
In view of De Gaulle's insistence on the need for US-UK-French
consultation and cooperation on world-wide defense planning,
with Africa as a special sphere of French responsibility, he may
make his handling of the Guinea problem the immediate test case
of his own version of the meaning of We tern solidarity)
29 Apr 59
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The Situation in Panama
The prompt reaction of other American countries to the
recent invasion of Panama has probably strengthened the un-
stable De la Guardia government and discouraged support for
the invaders from other antiadministration groups. The Cuban
origin of the armed expedition and of most of its members as
well as the apparent lack of feasible postinvasion plans, has
probably made De la Guardia's numerous opponents wary of
any appearance of cooperation with the invaders.
The Council of the Organization of American States in re-
sponse to Panamanian appeals for help, sent an investigating
committee on 28 April and recommended that member states
entertain favorably Panamanian requests for arms. Nicaragua
and Guatemala have offered to send military aid, and the US
delivered arms and other equipment on 27 April for the Pana-
manian National Guard to use against the revolutionaries. In
addition, the Cuban Government has condemned participation
by its citizens in the attack and promised stringent action against
them, although some Cuban officials may have been aware of the
expedition preparations.
(,me students and other anti-US extremists in Panama re-
portedly have plans, however, to incite disorders to commem-
orate the serious student-guard riots of May 1958. These may
take the form of harassing outbreaks against the unpopular Na-
tional Guard, a politically dominated urban police force which
has been disconcerted by the scattered small revolts and land-
ings of the past month)
Guard commandant Vallarino5 whose support of De la Guardia
has been the president's main strength has appeared doubtful of
the guard's willingness and ability to fight the invasion force. He
and other members of the ruling clique were extremely nervous,
but the OAS actions should help to stabilize the internal situation
also.
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
CONFIDENTIAL
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