CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/02/19

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
03023210
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RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
15
Document Creation Date: 
February 25, 2020
Document Release Date: 
February 27, 2020
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Publication Date: 
February 19, 1959
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Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 iJA)TT.)/H -TOP-SECRET- 3.5(c) Nur L)3.3(h)(2) 19 February 1959 Copy No. C t CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. X DECLASSIMED NEXT fVIEW DATE: CLASS. CHAN2,ED TO: ir�,36eis REVIEWER: Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Approved for Release: C03023210 Oa% �TVID-sEeRT-T-- Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 19`FEBRUARY 1959 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Khrushchev reaffirms tough line on Berlin. Peiping stung by Western criticism; publicizes defense of communes. JAEIC evaluates Soviet general's re- marks about nuclear weapons. IL ASIA-AFRICA UK, Greek, and Turkish foreign min- isters hold emergency sessions to avert breakdown of Cyprus negotia- tions. Morocco - King's two-week trip abroad may lead to further instability. Guinea responding to bloc diplomatic and economic overtures. Cambodia - Defensive precautions being taken by Sihanouk's and Dap Chhuon's forces; Chhuon hopes for peaceful solution. Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 J.11A.:Nta Is IMF � , CD �"'111/ � 1=-3 r 'AY/ SECRET )I, Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 rz/ "Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 I 'jr JEJLIVC I %me %id CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 19 February 1959 DAILY BRIEF I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR: In his speech at Tula on 17 February, Khru- shchev adopted a defiant attitude toward the Western powers' determination, reaffirmed in their notes of 16 February, to uphold by all appropriate means their communications with West Berlin. He repeated previous public warnings that "if anybody should start shooting, this would mean the beginning of war." Khrushchev's tough line on negotiations suggests the USSR will promptly carry out its announced intention to trans- fer control over Allied access and sign a separate peace treaty with East Germany if the West rejects Soviet proposals on Berlin and a German treaty. His favorable reference to Sen- ator Mansfield's proposal for direct negotiations between East and West Germany underscores Moscow's effort to confront the West with a choice between measures carrying a serious risk of war or concessions which would erode the Western po- sition on Berlin and German reunification. (Page 1) Communist China: Peiping radio has broadcast two re- cent articles from the party's leading newspaper and theoret- ical journal with the stated purpose of refuting US and other Western criticism of the commune program. This and sim- ilar articles in the past indicate the degree of Peiping's sen- sitivity to adverse international reaction to this program. The commune system continues to receive a very bad press through- out Asia, with the exception of Cambodia. While the Chinese Communist party's December plenum modified some of the ex- tremes of the program, such as measures affecting family life and personal property, Peiping intends to push the development of communes in 1959. ( TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 IA 'Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 1..4%-,i�L.� 111101 USSR: Jibe Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee Lbelieves the-Soviet fission weapons yields reported to the Swedes by General of the Army Popov--2, 5, 10, 20, and 50 kilotons�probably do not represent the full spectrum avail- able to the Soviet military forces. Further, it is believed -71 the Soviet thermonuclear stockpile certainly contains a selec- tion of yields ranging from 200 kilotons to eight megatons, rather than a single thermonuclear weapon as Popov impliedtj (Page 3) IL ASIA-AFRICA Cyprus: Cimergency meetings of the British, Greek, and Turkish foreign ministers dealing with the Cyprus issue are being held in London to avert complete breakdown of negotia- tions following the "dramatic quarrel" between Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis and Archbishop Makarios. This split, plus delays and disruption resulting from the crash of the Turk- ish prime minister's plane, has caused a serious loss of mo- mentum in the talks which opposition elements in all areas will probably attempt to exploit. A formal break between Karaman- lis and Makarios would cause Karamanlis serious political dif- ficulty in Greece.j (Page 4) Watch Committee conclusion--Middle East: Situations susceptible of direct exploitation by Sino-Soviet hostile action which would jeopardize US interests exist in the Middle East, particularly in Iran and Iraq. The situation in the area remains precarious, but a deliberate initiation of large-scale hostilities is unlikely in the immediate future. Iran: Current tensions between Iran and the USSR can be expected to continue and, with the signing of the Iranian-US bi- lateral agreement, to increase to a point short of direct mil- itary action Morocco: acing Mohamed V plans to be away from Morocco from 20 February through 5 March. He will visit Corsica and Madagascar. At a time when the country is embroiled in a po litical contest between factions of the ruling Istiqlal party, his absence will invite more instability.1 (Page 5) 19 Feb 59 DAILY BRIEF TOP SECRET U. A Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Ver Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 I NiIle NW" Guinea - Soviet bloc: Guinea appears to be responding to the Soviet bloc's campaign to establish diplomatic, eco- nomic, and cultural ties with the independent states of West Africa. Sekou Tour's government signed a trade and pay- ments agreement with a visiting Soviet trade mission on 13 February, and is in the process of concluding new arrange-. ments with several Eastern European satellites. A Bulgarian ambassador has reportedly already presented his credentials in Conakry. (Page ,6) Cambodia: [-Stringent security measures have been im- posed by disaffected General Dap Chhuon at his headquarters in Siem Reap, and similar defensive precautions are being taken by the Sihanouk government in the Phnom Penh area. Meanwhile, accusations by South Vietnam of border raids by Cambodian troops may be groundwork for Vietnamese diver ionary action along the frontier intended to coincide with hhuons internal move against Sihanouk, which had been ten- atively set for mid-March. Chhuon, however, apparently still hopes to avoid bloodshed by reaching a peaceful solution with Sihanouk which would curtail Communist influence in Cambodia] Page 7) 19 Feb 59 DAILY BRIEF iii 0 TOP SECRET ,Z Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 J Niro o' Nri I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Khrushchev Defies West on Berlin Khrushchev's speech at Tula on 17 February underscored Moscow's current efforts to confront the Western powers with a choice between risking war to enforce their right of access to Berlin or making concessions which would erode their posi- tion on Berlin and German reunification. The Soviet premier adopted a defiant attitude toward the West's intention, reaf- firmed in the notes of 16 February, to "uphold by all appro- priate means" its communications with Berlin. Khrushchev said Soviet troops in East Germany are not there to play games and repeated previous public Soviet warn- ings that "if anybody should start shooting, this would mean the beginning of war." I Khrushchev also sought to discourage any belief that West- ern access to Berlin could be maintained by an airlift if the land routes are closed. He asserted that East Germany would obtain full sovereignty by the conclusion of a peace treaty and would vigorously rebuff any encroachment on its territory by land, air, or water. This formulation seems to imply that a separate treaty might be speedily concluded either prior to or simultane- ous with the transfer of access controls to the East Germans. Khrushchey's tough line on negotiations with the West sug- gests that if the West rejects the Soviet proposals regarding Berlin and a peace treaty signed by both German governments, the USSR will promptly carry out its announced intention to transfer the controls and sign a separate treaty with East Ger- many. He ridiculed the Western formula of "no concessions without counterconcessions" and said, "We...have nothing to concede. We made our proposals without bargaining." Moscow's apparent belief that its threatening posture on Berlin will force the West to move toward at least de facto recognition of East Germany was reflected in Khrushchey's 19 Feb 59 SECRET CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 1 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 .NLCKE f NNW favorable reference to Senator Mansfield's proposal for direct negotiations between the two German governments on unifica- tion of both Berlin and Germany. Khrushchev concluded his speech with a sharp attack on the Shah of Iran for breaking off his negotiations on a nonaggression pact with the USSR. His statement that the USSR will "see to it that the people of Iran understand our attitude correctly" prob- ably foreshadows an intensified Soviet propaganda campaign aimed at discrediting the Shah's regime. 19 Feb 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 5LC: JAEIC Statement of 17 February 1959 military delegation which visited the Soviet Union last November was informed by General of the Army M. M. Popov that the Soviet Army possessed five types of nuclear weapons: a two-kiloton artillery shell, a five-kilo- ton rocket projectile for close support, and bombs yielding 10, 20, and 50 kilotons for tactical employment by Soviet TacticalAir Force units equipped with the TU46-.\ elle Long Range Air Force was said to have a thermo- nuclear weapon "in the megaton range" in addition to smaller bombs. The delegation inferred that their hosts had been instructed to make the visit worthwhile without disclos- ing any classified or order-of-battle information.7 [-During a visit to the Soviet Union in July 1957, the firing by e o- viet Army of two half-kiloton nuclear artillery shells. An Austrian military delegation visited the Soviet Union in Octo- ber. These invitations to foreign military observers indicate a Soviet campaign to impress neutral nations with the nuclear capabilities of Soviet military forces..-c Elle possession of nuclear artillery shells is estimated to be well within the capability of the Soviet Union. No tests of such devices have been identified in the nine-year history of the Soviet weapons testing program, but such low-yield tests could well have escaped detection. The yields of the fission weapons described to the Swedes probably did not in- clude all those available to the Soviet military forces, and the Soviet thermonuclear stockpile certainly contains a selection of yields ranging from approximately 200 kilotons to eight meg- atons. The delegation was given no information on the availability ns for air defense or other applica- tions:1 19 Feb 59 SECRET CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Page 3 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 voie II, ASIA AFRICA Cyprus Situation {An emergency meeting at the foreign ministers' level was called in London on the evening of 18 February to pre- vent the threatened collapse of the conference seeking agree- ment on the terms for an independent Cyprus. The urgent meeting follows reports that Archbishop Makarios has broken with the Greek Government and no longer accepts the Cyprus agreement reached between Athens and Ankara on 11 Febru- ary. The future of the conference now depends on Makarios, as Britain, Greece, Turkey, and the Turkish Cypriots have agreed on the terms for a settlement. Failure to secure the archbishop's approval would eliminate hope for a solution at present and could lead to a renewal of the struggle on Cyprus. The possibility cannot be precluded that Makarios is maneuver- ing for further concessions, which would also enhance his polit- ical stature in both Cyprus and Greece-3 ElVlakarios' opposition to the agreement appears concentrated on the terms providing for British base rights on Cyprus, and the right of Britain, Greece, and Turkey to intervene if Cypriot independence is threatened. There may also be problems in London regarding the timing and method of execution of the agreement, the degree of Turkish Cypriot participation in the government, and the question of whether or not Cyprus will re- main within the British Commonwealth. Makarios' advisers re- portedly are pressuring the archbishop to submit any plan for Cyprus' future to a plebiscite on the island.-/ If the London conference fails to achieve a settlement of the Cyprus issue because of Makarios' objections, an open break between the Greek Government and the Cypriot Ethnarchy is virtually certain. Karamanlis recently stated that regardless of the results in London, Greece intends to maintain cordial rela- tions with Turkey, will order the return of the Greek NATO contin- gent withdrawn from Izmir last rune, and will announce withdrawal of further support for the Greek Cypriot cause CA final break between Karamanlis and Makarios would have serious consequences on the Greek political scene, with both Communist and nationalist opposition parties demanding the gov- ernment's resignation. Karamanlis' ability to survive would de- pend on the loyalty of the members of his own party in the Chamber of Deputies, where he enjoys a small majoritiTT 19 Feb 59 SECIZ .T- CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 NMI Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 -3ECXL4-1� Nei Mofoccank-King May Revisit Corsica and Madagascar king Mohamed V plans to leave Morocco on 20 February for a 12-day visit to Corsica and Madagascar. The King has long planned a "sentimental journey" to Madagascar, where he was imprisoned by France during the greater part of his 26- month exile in 1953-1955. At a time when the country is em- broiled in a bitter political contest between factions of the ruling Istiqlal party and tribal disorders in north and central Morocco have not been quelled, his absence will invite more instability:\ [-Unless the situation worsens drastically, the King prob- ably will proceed with the trip, returning before the month- long Moslem fast of Ramadan beginning about 11 March. As during other royal absences from the country, the crown prince probably will remain in Morocco to serve as regent. Because he became embroiled in difficulties on the two earlier occa- sions when he was regent--a tribal uprising two years ago and the opening of the offensive by Moroccan irregulars against the Spanish enclave of Ifni in western Morocco in November 1957-- his authority may this time be drastically curtailed.:IS King hopes De Gaulle will invite him to stop in Paris on his return trom Madagascar. Such an invitation, in the King's view, would pro- vide an excellent opportunity for the two leaders, together with President Bourguiba of Tunisia who has publicly expressed a wish for consultations with De Gaulle. to discuss a solution of the Algerian rebellion: 19 Feb 59 SECRET CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Nrif Guinea Increasing Ties With Soviet Bloc Guinea appears to be responding favorably to Soviet bloc ef- forts to expand diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations with independent states of West Africa. Guinea was recognized by most Communist regimes soon after it became independent last October. Its first direct con- tact with the bloc was a trade and cultural accord last fall with East Germany. This was followed by a "general protocol" with Czechoslovakia envisaging trade relations and "economic and scientific technical cooperation"--terminology which has in the past sometimes meant the extension of bloc credits. More recently Guinea received a commercial delegation from Poland and signed a formal trade and payments agree- ments with the USSR on 13 February which provides for an exchange of coffee, bananas, and other agricultural products for Soviet-manufactured and -processed goods. Meanwhile, a Guinea delegation, including leftist Interior Minister Keita, has been accorded red-carpet treatment in East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Poland this month. In East Ber- lin, the visiting Africans discussed implementation of the trade and cultural agreement and were promised a new gift radio transmitter. In Prague, where they were received by Pres- ident Novotny, they apparently agreed to an exchange of diplo- matic representatives in the "immediate future" and also to the establishment in Conakry of a permanent Czech trade del- egation. A Bulgarian ambassador who arrived in Conakry late in January apparently was the first chief of mission to present his credentials and may thus be dean of the local diplomatic corps. CONFI DEN TEAL 19 Feb 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 ..1E,A.4vr, I '.1/110e Showdown May Be Near in Cambodia The break between Premier Sihanouk and General Dap Chhuon, disaffected military commander in northwestern Cambodia, is causing increased security precautions on both sides. Chhuon, who is readying a move against Sihanouk with the active support of South Vietnam, has established check- points around his headquarters at Siem Reap and is no longer permitting visits by government officials without prior clear- ance. These moves parallel security measures already taken in the Phnom Penh area on orders from Sihanouk, who is un- sure of Chhuon's strength. Chhuon apparently still favors a peaceful compromise solution with Sihanouk to avoid bloodshed, but their divergent views on the Communist threat to Cambodia militates against this CA key question is the attitude of General Lon Nol, oppor- tunistic chief of staff of the Cambodian armed forces. In addi- tion to this assignment, Lon Nol has been named defense min- ister in Sihanouk's reshuffle of his cabinet on 18 February. The cabinet changes apparently are part of Sihanouk's spreading witch hunt against officials suspected either of collusion with antigovernment elementS or of being too inept to cope with the "present delicate situation.-1 n accusing Cambodia of border raids, South Vietnam may be tying the ground for some diversionary action along the frontier to coincide with Chhuon's internal move, tentatively set for mid-March. There has also been some evidence of sabotage and terrorist acts in Cambodia, intended to create confusion preceding the coup. Reports have been received of a rash of kidnapings and holdups in the countryside, as well as expert sabotage of construction equipment on the new highway from Kompong Som Bay to Phnom Penli3, 19 Feb 59 SECRET CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 Page 7 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 � � a *gime THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Executive Secretary, National Security Council The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior The Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director United States Information Agency The Director Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210 -T-OP-SECRET- AI * SECRET ;;AP Wit /44 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03023210