CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/12/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03007361
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: December 17, 1959

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17 December 1959
Copy No. C
CENTRAL
3.3(h)(2)
(U(c)
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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17 DECEMBER 1959
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR--Ambassador Thompson discusses
Soviet attitudes on German question.
Poland asks US for emergency grain ship-
meets,
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesian "state-of-war" declaration is
technicality continuing existing controls.
Laos--Phoui forms new cabinet without
participation by reformist CDNI.
Rhodesia-Nyasaland Federation seen
headed for increasing racial tension.
Rival Nigerian leaders maneuvering for
formation of coalition government.
III. THE WEST
0 De Gaulle reportedly considers US-
French policy agreement on North Africa
"impossible."
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
17 December 1959
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR: A bassador Thompson believes that even if the re-
sults of the summit meeting prove unsatisfactory, Khrushchev
will not take immediate steps to sign a separate peace treaty
with East Germany. He feels, however, that the Soviet premier
will not defer such action for any considerable time unless the
West can devise an acceptable counterproposal. Most recently,
lihrushchev warned four times in his speech to the Hungarian
party congress on 1 December that if the West rejects a treaty
with both German states, the USSR will be "compelled" to sign
a separate treaty with East Germany. He emphasized, however,
that Moscow does not "fix any time limits" and implied that he
envisa es est negotia-
,.
.r-v.uulu; 1x-mana nas oniciaity requested the earliest possible
initiation of negotiations for an "emergency" allocation of grain.
Polish officials told American Ambassador Beam there is a des-
() perate requirement for supplementary grain shipments to arrive
in April. Poland will apparently require at least 300,000 tons of
grain above present planned imports to alleviate the critical sit-
uation resultin from the rolon ed drou ht and lanning failures-4
(Page
I I. ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia: President Sukarno's declaration of a state of war
throughout Indonesia on 16 December merely continues military
controls which have been in effect since early 1957 and which were
0 due to expire on 17 December. Under the new decree, President
Sukarno assumes the role of chief war administrator, a post for-
merly held by Army Chief of Staff General Nasution, but Nasution
reportedly will be the deputy responsible for implementation, and
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the practical effect of the change is expected to be small.
; the
state of war will continue at least for another year.
Laos: Premier Phours formation of a new government
without the young reformist Committee for Defense of National
Interests (CDNI)�ffillowing failure to reach agreement on a
cabinet may lead to a political crisis in Vientiane. If
61 the conservatives and the CDNI remain at odds, the govern-
ment's efforts to cope with the Communist internal threat will --,
(Page 2)
be undermined.
Watch Committee Conclusion: LThe following develop-
ments are susceptible of direct exploitation by Soviet/Com-
munist hostile action which could jeopardize the security of
the US in the immediate future:
In Iraq, with Qasim being driven closer to the Communists,
another nationalist attempt to assassinate Qasim could occur
at any time;
Rhodesia-Nyasaland: Wissatisfaction among moderate
Africans in the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, to-
gether with renewed activity by extremist elements, is likely
to make for a continuing increase in racial tension. The Con-
sulate General in Salisbury observes that many Africans doubt
that London will protect interests of the natives against the de-
mands of settler-dominated Federation and territorial govern-
ments. The recently created Monckton Commission--charged
with recommending changes in the Federation constitution--does
not have African support and probably will make no report until
late in 1960. African spokesmen in Nyasaland continue to de-
mand that Nyasaland secede from the Federation. Surface calm
in the area appears attributable largely to repressive measures
taken under emergency regulations which have been in effect
since the Nyasaland riots last Februa.5.3
(Page 3)
17 Dec 59 DAILY BRIEF
11
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Nigeria: iligerian political leaders now are engaged in
a period of bargaining following the 12 December federal par-
liamentary election, which gave none of the three major group-
ings an absolute majority. A coalition government dominated
by the conservative Northern People's Congress appears the
most likely outcome. A government controlled by a combina-
tion of southern parties--a development likely to provoke dis-
turbances in the Northern Region--could materialize, however,
if the northern leaders set too high a price on sharing powerq
(Page 4)
III. THE WEST
France: EZe Gaulle is reported to view the United States'
abstention on the UN Algerian resolution as conclusive evi-
dence that bilateral agreement between France and the United
States on North African policy is "impossible." De Gaulle's
preoccupation with North Africa is a major factor underlying
his present controversies with NATO, which in Spook's view
now leave De Gaulle virtually isolated on defense policy within
the alliance. Top French military advisers fear De Gaulle
plans to ignore their view that cooperation between the two
countries and continued American military aid are essential
to prevent a deterioration of French armed forces-.
(Page 5)
17 Dec 59
DAILY BRIEF iii
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Poland Requests "Emergency" Grain Talks
dioland has officially requested the earliest possible ini-
tiation of negotiations for an "emergency" allocation of grain.
Vice Minister of Foreign Trade Modrezewski and the economic
counselor at the Polish Embassy in Washington have told Amer-
ican Ambassador Beam that Poland desperately needs supple-
mentary grain shipments to arrive in ApriL
Because of a drought and planning failures, Polish grain
requirements for the year 1959-60 from external sources have
mounted to about two million tons, and the need will be great-
est between April and harvest time. The Poles now have com-
mitments for about 1,700,000 tons�including 800,000 from the
USSR, 600,000 from the US,and 200,000 tons from Canada. Un-
less additional supplies are obtained, livestockherds might decline
and the meat situation, already difficult, might become worse.
Furthermore, bread-grain consumption probably will increase
during the coming year, because meat and potatoes have become
less plentiful. To complicate the situation further,* the outlook
for next year's grain harvest is unfavorable, a circumstance
which may make the peasant reluctant to meet his compulsory
grain obligations to the state. The peasants' attitude may very
well be stiffened by regime efforts to control meat sales during
the last few days, collect back taxes, and compel additional
peasants to join state-sponsored agricultural eircleS3
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Reformists Excluded From New Laotian Cabinet
diremier. Phours exclusion of the reformist commit-
tee for Defense of National Interests (CDNI) from his re-
organized cabinet and his scheduling of a special Nationa.
Assembly session from 17 until 22 December may usher
in a period of serious political instability in Laos. The
break came after failure to reach agreement on a cabinet
list. The CDNI has also registered strong opposition to
any assembly session prior to the scheduled expiration of
the assembly's mandate on 25 December.
The CDNI is reported preparing a communiqu�rgu-
ing that Phoui's recent moves are inopportune and unconsti-
tutional. The reformists may still hope to re-enter the
government after the assembly ceases to function, possi-
bly by prevailing on the King to establish a new provisional
government. On the other hand, they may be content to bide
their time, concentrating on getting a new assembly more
to their liking returned in early elections. A third possibil-
ity is that the CDNI might attempt a coup with the strong army
backing it reportedly enjoys.
In any event, if the conservatives and the reforznists
remain at odds, the government's efforts to cope with the
Communist internal threat will be undermined-.1
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Increasing African Dissatisfaction in Rhodesia
And Nyasaland
throwing discontent among moderate Africans in the
Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, together with re-
newed activity by extremist elements� is likely to make
for a continuing increase in racial tension. Nyasaland.
nationalists continue to demand that Nyasaland secede from
the Federation. The Consulate General in Salisbury notes
widespread dissatisfaction over the slow pace of African
advancement and over the tendency of the Europeans to ig-
nore or dismiss legitimate African grievances,
The surface political quiet in the Federation since the
Nyasaland riots of last February stems largely from re-
pressive measures taken under emergency regulations--
which initially included the detention of some 1,500 African
nationalists--rather than from any solution of fundamental
issues. About 500 nationalists are still detained. The In-
ternational Red Cross representative in the Federation
recently criticized the handling of these detainees, which
he characterized as psychologically inept and tending to
increase the number of hard-core extremists.
The Consulate General states that many Africans doubt
that London intends to protect the African state in the Fed-
eration, and that the Monckton Commission�recently cre-
ated to study possible changes in the Federation constitu-
tion--does not .have African support and probably will not
finish its study until late 1960. African nationalists have
threatened to boycott the activities of the commission. The
British Labor party has refused to participate. the,ac-
tivities of the commissions largely on the ground that it has
not been specifically directed to consider NvasalantTh inde-
pendence.
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Nigerian Leaders Bargaining on Coalition Government
he failure of any one of Nigeria's three major political
groupings to win an absolute majority in the federal parlia-
mentary election on 12 December has precipitated a period
of bargaining for a share in the government which is expected
to be in power when Nigeria becomes independent next Octo-
ber. The most likely outcome is a coalition cabinet dominated
by the Northern People's Congress (NPC), which won a sub-
stantial plurality of the 312 seats contested, and including rep-
resentatives of the National Council of Nigeria and the Cam-
eroons (NCNC), which came in second in the balloting. The
NPC is the organization of the Northern Region's conservative
Moslem rulers,while the NCNC represents the more dynamic
Christian and pagan tribesmen who control the Eastern Region%
government. The two parties reached an "understanding" some-
time before the election on sharing power; however, this accord
was subject to considerable strain during the hotly contested
campaign.
Incumbent Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa, the deputy pres-
ident of the NPC, has been nominated by the British Governor
General--who believes an NPC-controlled government is essen-
tial to Nigeria's stable development--to form the new cabinet.
However, the dominant NPC personality is Sir Ahmadu Bello,
the premier of the Northern Region, who was not a candidate
for the federal legislature. Both Tafawa Balewa and Sir Ahmadu
indicated to the American consul in Kaduna on 14 December that
the NPC was prepared to accept the NCNC as a coalition partner
provided NPC's terms were met.
Meanwhile, rumors are circulating in Lagos that the NCNC
is "negotiating" with the Western Region'S Action group, which
finished third in the voting and is regarded by the NPC as its
principal enemy. While such rumors are probably deliberately
inspired as part of the bargaining now going on, an NCNC-AG
coalition might materialize if the northern leaders set too high
a price on sharing power. Such a development might provoke
disturbances in the Northern Region:j
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THE WEST
De Gaulle Sees No Agreement Possible With US Over
North Africa
ailench President de Gaulle takes a very serious view of
the United States' abstention in the UN vote on the Algerian
resolution on 12 December,
tne tny vote provea that "political agreement with the United
States on North Africa is impossible" and afforded conclu-
sive evidence of the unsoundness of the top-level French mil-
itary view that France and the United States could reconcile
their differences by bilateral consultation. Specific problems
cited by the French military include the supplying of US arms
to Morocco and NATO financial support for the Bizerte naval
base.
De Gaulle's preoccupation with North Africa is a major
factor underlying his controversy with NATO. His withdrawal
of the Mediterranean fleet and his refusal to permit the inte-
gration of French air forces stems in part from his desire to
keep his armed forces free for this priority national mission.
De Gaulle also appears to share the view of many Frenchmen
that the United States is seeking to replace France as the dom-
inant influence in North Africa.
NATO Secretary General Spaak told Secretary Herter on
14 December that there is a "sentiment of revolt" within the
Atlantic alliance over France's obstruction of progress in keep-
ing up NATO defenses. Similar uneasiness, reported among
the top-level French military officials, expressed in much of
the French presq and evident in all the parliamentary groups
except those representing the Union for the New Republic and
the Communists, leaves De Gaulle virtually isolated in his de-
fense policy.
, French military officials
agree that continued American military aid is needed if France's
armed forces are not to deteriorate drastically. They fear, how-
ever, that De Gaulle will ignore their advice in this respect be-
cause of his attitude toward thp TTnitpd ,qtateRt nngitinn nn 1+Inrt
African questions.
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Director, Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Director, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Chairman, Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretzry for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
--eVOLIDENTTAT
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