CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/07/31

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03169509
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: July 31, 1958

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3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
31 July 1958
Copy No. C
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. .,�?7 �
NO CHANGE IN CL.A.z..S.
IJ DECLASSiFfED
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31 JULY 1958
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
UAR message indicates probable So-
viet offer of military assistance to
Iraq.
Ambassador Thompson believes So-
viet leaders will soon act to alarm
world opinion and increase pressure
for summit meeting.
USSR has developed operational air-
to-surface guided missile with 3,000-
pound conventional or nuclear war-
head.
Polish regime's attack on church en-
dangers Gomulka's popular support.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
General Shihab remains favored
candidate in Lebanese presidential
election scheduled for today. Iraqi
officials press for American recog-
nition. Saudi businessmen talking
of a possible sudden change of gov-
ernment.
� Indonesia - Bukittinggi attacked 23
through 28 July by largest dissident
force used to date; central govern-
ment retains control.
III. THE WEST
0 Austrian Chancellor Raab's toadying
statements during and since visit to
USSR causing some concern in
Vienna.
0 Bolivia - President Siles again
threatens to resign; government may
be facing genuine crisis this time.
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�Ji
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
� USSR-Iraq:
taryTigia�ance to Iraq
a probable Soviet offer of mili-
Damascus stated it would
agree to the passage of 50 tanks to Baghdad across Syrian
territory provided this assistance "were given in accordance
with an agreement between Iraq and the Russian Government."
Damascus also informed Cairo that "Russia is thinking of as-
sisting Iraq" with certain unidentified "equipment" and that
the USSR would intervene in the event of a Western attack on
Iraq. (Page 1)
Soviet summit tactics: Ambassador Thompson believes
the Soviet leaders will soon take steps to heighten tension
and alarm world opinion in an attempt to increase pressure
for a summit meeting, (Page 2)
Watch Committee conclusions--Sino-Soviet bloc (as of
N7` 30 July 58):
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hos-
tilities against the continental US or its possessions in the
immediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends deliberately to
Initiate direct military action against US forces abroad, US
allies, or areas peripheral to the Orbit in the immediate future.
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NOTE: While the USSR has placed some of its forces in posi-
tions of readiness, the Soviet Union has not taken many of
the measures which would be considered necessary to pre-
pare for aaeressive action in the Middle East or elsewhere.
Soviet special weapons: The USSR has developed an op-
erational air-to-surface guided missile believed to be capable
of delivering a 3,000-pound nuclear or high-explosive war-
head against maritime and well-defined land targets. It is
believed that some operational units of the Soviet Long Range
Air Force have been equipped and that Soviet Naval Aviation
units will soon be equipped with this missile.
(Page 4) (Map)
Poland: The raid by Polish security police on the coun-
try's most important religious shrine will seriously jeopardize
Gomulka's national popularity, particularly in the rural areas.
Much of Gomulka's political strength has derived from his ar-
riving at a truce with the church and obtaining the public back
in: of the Polish primate, Cardinal Wyszinski.
a e 5)
II. ASIA-AFRICA
*Middle East developments: Opposition demands for Presi-
dent Chamoun's immediate retirement are likely to mount sharp-
ly following the Lebanese presidential election scheduled for 31
July. Latest indications are that General Shihab is still the
favored candidate. Ira i officials are pressing strongly for
American recognition.
Saudi businessmen in Jidda are speaking openy
of a possible sudden change of government. British troop move-
ments to and in the Middle East appear to be about completed.
(Page 6)
31 July 58
DAILY BRIEF ii
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Watch Committee conclusion�Middle East (as of 30
July 58): Although a deliberate initiation of open hostilities
in the Middle East is unlikely in the immediate future, the
Ay situation remains higaly unstable, particularly in Jordan
It` and Lebanon where incidents might involve British and US
forces.
610
Indonesia: Military action by the dissidents against
Bukittinggi, their former capital in Sumatra, which began
on 23 July, was still under way on 28 July,
The government, however,
apparently regained the initiative after the initial attack.
This is the largest offensive operation yet undertaken by the
dissidents.
III. THE WEST
Austria: Chancellor Raab's linking of Soviet and Austrian
interests in statements during and since his 21-28 July visit
to Moscow is causing concern in Austrian political circles,
including members of the chancellor's own party. Socialist
resentment will increase tensions in the Austrian governing
^^"114 +4 ("" hi"- 41."1 Q4-'1'4 1 i f" (1 the government is not threatened.
(Page 9)
Bolivia: Moderate President Siles apparently plans to
resign on August in favor of Senate President Alvarez Plata,
who has recently been cooperating with leftist labor leader
Juan Lechin. Although Siles has threatened to resign on
previous occasions, American Ambassador Bonsai feels that
this time a real crisis may be facing the government.
(Page 10)
31 July 58
DAILY BRIEF iii
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Now"
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Evidence of Soviet-Iraqi Rapport
Evidence of a probable Soviet offer of military assistance
for Iraq is contained in a UAR message of 28 July from Da-
mascus to Cairo. Damascus stated it would permit 50 tanks
to cross Syrian territory en route to Baghdad and allow Iraqi
tank crews to be trained in Syria provided this assistance was
given "in accordance with an agreement between Iraq and the
Soviet Goverpment." Damascus also informed Cairo that
"Russia is tliinking of assisting Iraq" with certain unidenti-
fied "equipment," and that the USSR would intervene in the
event of a Western attack on Iraq.
Meanwhile it appears that working diplomatic relations
will be established very shortly.
the new Iraqi ambassador to Moscow wouia arrive aur-
ing the week after "the exchange of mutual diplomatic repre-
sentation." A high-level Soviet official had arrived in Bagh-
dad by 29 July,
Khalid Bakdash, leader of the
Syrian-Lebanese Communist party, was also in Baghdad to
urge broad leftist support for the new government.
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No, Nye
Soviet Pressure for Summit Talks
Ambassador Thompson believes the USSR will soon
take further steps to heighten tension and alarm world opin-
ion in an effort to increase pressure on the United States
and Britain for summit talks on Soviet terms. He suggests
such moves may include accusations and threats addressed
to Turkey, a Soviet-inspired Iraqi appeal to the UN Security
Council protesting alleged Turkish warlike preparations,
or action by the UAR to stir up trouble in Lebanon or Jordan..
Since the Soviet leaders apparently believe that the pos-
sibility of military action against the new Iraqi Government
by the United States and Britain or their Middle East allies
has diminished, Moscow m77 be encouraged to adopt publicly
a more belligerent posture. Soviet
Deputy Foreign Minister Zorin told the UAR ambassador in
Moscow on 21 July that the position of Iraq has become strong-
er and that it now would be difficult for the Western powers
to launch an attack. "This," he said, "is the first victory,"
and he assured the UAR ambassador that "time is on our
side."
Khrushchev's charge in his letters of 28 July to Presi-
dent Eisenhower and Prime Minister Macmillan that "prep-
arations for armed interference in the affairs of the Republic
of Iraq are proceeding at full speed" may foreshadow stiff
warnings to Turkey, Iran, and possibly to Washington and
London, including more detailed threats of Soviet military
counteraction or the dispatch of "volunteers" in the event
of an attack on Iraq.
Moscow's protest of 30 July against an alleged violation
of Soviet air space by an American RB-47 on 26 July states
that the USSR attaches "especially serious importance" to
this incident because the violation was committed "at a mo-
ment when armed intervention by the United States and Britain
in the Middle East has created a very tense situation in this
31 July 58
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Na�pf Nov'
area." The protest warns that the United States "must also
consider" that the violation "from the direction of countries
bordering on the Soviet Union, including Iran, contradicts
known treaty obligations of these countries in regard to the
Soviet Union." This is a thinly veiled reference to the Soviet-
Iranian .treaty of 1921 which gives the USSR the right, under
certain conditions, "to send its army into Persia in order
to take the necessary military steps in its own defense" if
any "third countries" make "Persian territory a base for min:-
tary attacks against Russia!'
Despite Khrushchev's strong criticisms of the Ameri-
can and British positions, he has been careful not to close
the door to a compromise formula for a summit meeting
within the UN framework, possibly in Europe. TASS on 30
July denied Western reports that Khrushchev's latest letters
mean he would be unwilling to attend a meeting in New York.
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AREAS INVOLVED IN SOVIET
AIR-TO-SURFACE
MISSILE ACTIVITY
JULY 1958
TARGET AREAS
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Possible Appearance of Air-to-Surface Missile in Soviet
Operational Units
for the first
time what appears to be operational training involving naval
BADGER (TU-16) jet medium bombers and the air-to-surface
missile. In the past Special Purpose Regiments of
the Soviet Long Range Air Force have been primarily asso-
ciated with this missile, which has a range of about 55 nauti-
cal miles, although a naval air regiment from Sarabuz, a
naval air station in the Crimea, was also involved earlier.
On 22 July, at least
six and possibly nine aircraft appear to have left Sarabuz on
missile-associated runs possibly to the Vladimirovka facility
or the new test area in the North Caspian Sea. One altitude
noted is comparable to that used by BADGERS of the Special
Purpose Unit from Ostrov/Gorokhovka which have long been
associated with the "KS" missile.
This missile seems intended primarily for use against
maritime targets, but would also be feasible for use against
well-defined land targets. Although the warhead details are
unknown, the preponderance of the missiles launched pass
well above the target,, suggesting that the warhead is designed
for an air burst, characteristic of an atomic weapon. This
missile is estimated to carry a 3,000-pound nuclear or high-
explosive warhead.
BADGER-equipped units of the Soviet Long Range Air
Force have been and Soviet Naval Aviation may soon be equipped
with this missile.
31 July 58
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Polish Church-State Truce Threatened
In an anticlerical move unprecedented in Gomulka's Po-
land for its violence and resemblance to Stalinism, the Pol-
ish regime on 21 July conducted a raid on the Jasna Gora
monastery near Czestochowa, a national and religious shrine.
On 29 July the government publicly charged the Catholic Church
with distributing illegal and subversive publications printed
on secret presses in Jasna Gora. The regime announcement
followed the reading in Warsaw churches two days earlier of
Cardinal Wyszynskits pastoral letter denouncing the search
of the Jasna Gora premises.
The state maintained that the church had ignored a warn-
ing issued on 13 May, and was deliberately withholding il-
legally printed material from the censors. The regime fur-
ther stated that "some 15" policemen had been ordered to the
beene of tile raid. One member of the angry crowd that as-
s:4mbled has been held in prison, and with others will be
prosecuted for obstructing and resisting the security organs.
In addition, all persons guilty, of disseminating "false news
harmful to the state" about the raid will be prosecuted.
Legal action could therefore be taken against the cardinal him-
self.
Although there has been a gradual deterioration in church-
state relations in the past few months, there has been no
evidence of political action by the church requiring such stern
retaliation by the regime. At the very least this move against
the church seriously jeopardizes the church-state truce., Gomulka's
popularity, especially among the peasants, has been damaged,
and further akoves of this sort would seriously weaken his pop-
ular position.
CONFIDENTIAL
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Middle East Developments
Lebanon: The latest indications are that the Lebanese presi-
dential election will be held on 31 July as scheduled and that Gen-
eral Shihab remains the favored candidate. He can be elected,
however, only over the violent opposition of Prime Minister Sulh
and other "loyalist" elements who feel the general is likely to be
merely a way station on the road to a full alignment of Lebanese
policy with that of the UAR. Following the election of any candi-
date, opposition demands for President Chamoun's immediate re-
tirement are likely to mount sharply. If Chamoun adheres to his
intention of remaining in office until his legal term expires on
23 September, a new crisis and possibly some type of "semi-
legal" coup could ensue.
Iraq: The burn/Iig in Baghdad of an oil-storage tank belong-
ing to a British-owned company is being popularly attributed to
"imperialist" sabotage. The regime has reinstituted a curfew
because of the incident and has appealed to the populace to re-
main calm pending an official investigation of the incident.
The Iraqi minister of development indicated on 30 July that
he wanted American technicians back at work in his ministry
with the same standing, for the time being, as they had had un-
der the previous government. The minister observed, however,
that "of course everything is subject to change depending on the
attitude of the US Government toward Iraq." The constant theme
of conversations between Iraqi and American officials is the
question of American recognition.
tin addition to the numerous Egyptian technical and military
specialists who are being sent to Iraa.
gence gency were to leave Cairo for Baghdad
personnel of the Erptlan
nera
UAR: Preparations for naval defense are continuing in Egypt.
the Suez base was instructed to
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select a cargo vessel suitable for mine-laying. In Syria, one of
the main roads west of Damascus was closed from 27 to 30 July,
probably for military reasons.
Cairo financial authorities, unable to bring the Egyptian
� pound back to the level of $2,88 it maintained prior to the Suez
war, have in effect extended their de facto currency devaluation
by allowing the use of Egyptian pounds for a wider range of
transactions. Heretofore substantial discounts were permitted
only for certain limited transactions, such as the sale of cotton,
Effective 1 August, however, a new decree apparently allows
the use of discounted pounds for up to 25 percent of the value of
all but a few kinds of Egyptian exports.
Israel: Tel Aviv is stepping up its diplomatic activity in
anticipation of a possible summit conference on Middle East
problems. Foreign Minister Meir is reporte_d_now ready to
make her postponed trip to Paris.
The actual reason or e postponement was that the Israelis
found that the present French Government was not prepared_t_p___
sign a "treaty of alliance" with Israel."-There are other indica-,
-tit)-6s, however, that French-Israeli collaboration remains closLr
Arabian Peninsula: Businessmen in Jidda, Saudi Arabia's
commercial and diplomatic capital, are reported to be starting
to speak openly of the advantages of a more "democratic" form
of Saudi government and to be exuectine some type of sudden----
51La_nge in the government.1
aircraft presented to
the Imam by the USSR was to arrive within two weeks and would
be delivered to Taiz after the Yemeni "crest and motto" have
been painted on it. "petroleum experts /
will also be arriving this week," their e1eenses to be defrayed
by the� Soviet Government/ A press reporfirorirtairo states --/
that the di-p-Oga�ST--. Lahej, in the British Aden Pro-
tectorate will soon arrive in Cairo.
arrangemen s were being made to
bring him from Italy to Cairo after he refused to return to
London, and that it is hoped he will eventually go to Yemen to
aid the Imam's anti-British campaign.
British military moves: British troop moves to and within
the Middle East have tapered off and are apparently about com-
pleted.
31 July 58
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A small increase in air strength will result from the
planned movement in August of a dozen jet fighters and five
transport aircraft of the Rhodesian Air Force from Salisbury
to Aden for routine training and possible employment in
ther Near East areas.
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1110 THE WEST
Chancellor Raab's Performance in Moscow Worries
Austrian Coalition Leaders
Political circles in Vienna, including two cabinet min-
isters who belong to the chancellor's own party, are evident-
ly concerned over statements made by Chancellor Raab dur-
ing and since his 21-28 July trip to Moscow. The archbishop
of Vienna has privately expressed "anxiety and shock" over
Raabes linking of Austrian and Soviet interests. The leading
Socialist newspaper has denounced attempts to portray the
concessions given Austria as a "Raab triumph"; this portends
a further worsening of relations between the parties in the
Austrian coalition government.
Since his return, Raab has said that the talks involve no
changes in the "character" of Austria's neutrality, and, con-
trary to the final communiqud, denies having discussed broad
international issues. He has, however, again praised the
generosity of the Soviet Union, endorsed direct US-Soviet ne-
gotiations, and declared that there "never was any impedi-
ment to good relations with Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and
Yugoslavia." He has also urged other countries to follow
Vienna's lead in joining the bloc-dominated Eastern Danube
Convention, and Bonn, in response to a suggestion made by
the Austrian delegation to the German Embassy in Moscow.
now has this possibility under consideration.
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Name NINO
Bolivian President Apparently Plans to Resign
Moderate President Siles apparently plans to resign on
6 August in favor of Senate President Alvarez Plata--once
considered a moderate but recently an ally of leftist labor
leader Juan Lechin. Former President Paz reportedly in-
tends to visit Peru from 5 to 7 August in an attempt to avoid
association with the
dency would imply.
During the past 18 months Siles has repeatedly used
threats of resignation to secure backing for his policies.
He has nevertheless been faced with a widening division
between the right and left wings of the governing National-
ist Revolutionary Movement. This division makes the pres-
ent situation particularly serious in the eyes of American
Ambassador Bonsai. The split extends beyond politics
and could result in violence since most civilian militia
are likely to be with the left wing and most army and po-
lice with the-moderate wing.
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