CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/03/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06804268
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: March 15, 1958

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15 March 1958
Copy No.
CENTRAL
137
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN'
DOCUMENT NO. / 3
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
:I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: JIR 72
DATE.
REVIEWER:
� "-
TOP SECRET
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15 MARCH 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR holds two nuclear tests in same
day at separate proving grounds.
GMIC statement on Soviet 12 March
attempt to launch ICBM/ESV; sea
Daily Brief, Item 2.
EIDER)
Soviet Long Range Air Force may ba
engaged in second phase of current
Arctic training.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia - Chief of staff's message
indicates government troops will
press operaticas against Sumatran
dissidents, with west coast landing
ssiblv imminent.
dissident sympathizers
may attdmpt uprising in North Su-
matra.
� TOP SECRET
.77
0 Yemeni Imam may soon join Nasir's
attack on Saud's efforts at subversion.
(TOP SECRET EIDER); Saud apparent-
ly seeking to eliminate Egyptian in-
fluence in his army.
0 Sudanese premier, expecting further
Egyptian action against Sudan, says
he will resist with Ethiopian assistance.
1 0 Eritrean strikes may signal beginning 4
-1, of open defiance of Ethiopian rule.
� Japan sends cabinet minister to Mos-
cow to seek political basis for settle-
ment of.ftshery technicalities.
III. THE WEST
0 Greek confidence vote clears way for
new electoral law and dissolution of
parliament.
Paris police demonstrations set off
new crisis for Gaillard'a government.
SECRE
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
15 March 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet nuclear tests: The USSR conducted two nuclear
tests of comparatively low yield approximately an hour
70 apart on 14 March at the widely separated Novaya Zemlya
and Semipalatinsk nuclear proving grounds. For Joint
Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee statement see Page 1.
iL
7L0
Soviet ICBM/ESV launching attempt: The Guided Mis-
siles Intelligence Committee issued the following statement
on 14 March 1958:
It has been previously reported that the USSR
conducted a valid countdown on the Tyura Tam mis-
sile test range on 12 March, but failed to launch the
ICBM/ESV. However, the missile could not have
been seriously damaged by the attempt, since the
delays announced thereafter indicate the USSR ex-
pected to try again in a few hours.
. Further analysis of the previously available
information increases the likelihood that the mis-
sile to be launched is a test ICBM.
it is believed
that the next scheduled attempt to launch this vehicle
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will involve the full 8-hour countdown, and may
be preceded by practice activity of the rangehead
and impact areas.
Soviet Arctic air exercises: At least 10--and prob-
ably 16--Soviet Long Range Air Force turboprop heavy
bombers carried out extensive flights into the western
and central Arctic areas on 12 and 13 March. These
flights are the most extensive employment of heavy bomb-
ers ever noted in the Arctic, and possibly represent a
second phase of the current Long Range Aviation Arctic
training program. The first phase apparently ended re-
cently when about 20 jet medium bombers returned to
home bases in western Russia and the Soviet Far E
after about a month's operation from Arctic bases.
(Page 2) (Map)
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia:
Army Chief of Staff Nasution after visiting the
captured oil center of Pakanbaru indicates that there will be
no delay in pressing the military campaign against the dis-
sidents. Nasution said that a "report on the western opera-
tion is not yet in." This would tend to support the possibility
that a landing on the west coast is near.
Caltex has indicated that it intends to resume operations
shortly. Reports continue of pro-dissident sentiments in the
Medan area of North Sumatra and of the possibility of up-
risings there against the Djakarta government.
(Pages 3-4) (Map)
Saudi Arabia: An exposure of Saudi subversive activity
against the Imam of Yemen may be forthcoming soon. The
Imam brusquely notified Saud on 12 March of reports he
had received of Saudi "interference" in southern Yemen.
Saud issued orders in early February which indicated that
15 Mar 58
DAILY BRIEF ii
TOP SECRET
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TOP SECRET
he had begun operations to stimulate opposition to the Imam's
pro-Egyptian nolicies. (Page 5)
that Faysal is remaining aloof from his brother's prob-
lems. King Saud's continuing concern
over internal security and Egyptian influence in the army is
indicated by army staff changes which have brought young,
English-speaking, relatively pro-Western officers to top
posts. A former Aramco adviser, who has had considerable
experience in the area but is inclined to take an alarmist view,
believes that Saud is" or 'cken" and that the Saudi
dynasty is "doomed." (Page 6)
Sudan - Egypt: Prime Minister Khalil apparently antici-
pates further Egyptian action against the Sudan. He states he
will resist and has informed the Saudi representative in
Khartoum that Ethiopia has agreed to come to his aid "until
such time as the forces of friendly states arrive." Mean-
while, Egypt continues its efforts to buy up parliamentary
deputies with the hope of expanding its political influence.
(Page 7)
Ethiopia: The well-organized general strike in the capi-
tal of Eritrea on 10-11 March appears to be the beginning of
open defiance by the Eritreans of the Ethiopian Government.
Additional disorders are expected to occur because of the
partial strike taking place in the seaport city of Massaua and
the tense atmosphere in Asmara.
Japan - USSR: Japan is sending the minister of agri-
culture and forestry to Moscow to attempt a top-level "polit-
ical" settlement of the present stalemate over vital fishing
rights in the northwest Pacific. While the Japanese Govern-
ment has stated the minister's authority is limited to the
fishery problem, past experience would indicate he might
negotiate on other issues. He might possibly agree to the
15 Mar 58
DAILY BRIEF iii
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opening of peace treaty discussions in the near future should
the USSR demand this as a price for fishing rights.
(Page 9) (Map)
III. THE WEST
Greek political situation: Following a vote of confi-
dence on 13 March, the caretaker government of Premier
Georgakopoulos is now pressing for passage of a new elec-
toral law, to be followed by dissolution of the Chamber of
Deputies, and national elections in early May. Prospects
for passage of the electoral law, originally proposed by
former Prime Minister ICaramanlis and designed to favor
the two largest political parties in Greece, appear good
despite criticism from smaller party leaders who warn that
Its enactment will force them into electoral coalitions with
the left. In preparation for elections, frantic political
maneuvering continues. (Page 10)
France: The position of the Gaillard government has
beenz-r. damaged by the 13 March demonstrations by
the Paris police. The principal effect is to weaken the gov-
ernment's prospects in the series of confidence votes begin-
ning 18 March and to give a new pretext to those deputies
who are already inclined to vote against the government.
(Page 11)
15 Mar 58
DAILY BRIEF iv
T-015-SECRET
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HOWLi3ING RANGE
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27 JANUARY-13 MARCH 1958
TU-95 FLIGHT ROUTES (schematic)
BASES INVOLVED IN TU-16 ROUND ROBIN ACTIVITY
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15 MARCH 1958
80315
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TOP SECRET
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR Holds Nuclear Tests at Two Proving Grounds on
same Day
The Soviet Union on 14 March conducted nuclear tests
of comparatively low yield both in the vicinity of Novaya
Zemlya and at the Semipalatinsk proving ground. The Joint
Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee issued the following
statement at 1630 hours:
Two explosions on 14 March 1958 have been re-
ported on the acoustic network of the Atomic Energy
Detection System. The first occurred at about 0830
hours GMT, in the vicinity of Novaya Zemlya. A
preliminary estimate establishes the yield in the
range of 10 to 100 kilotons, with a most probable
value of 25 KT.
The .second explosion occurred at about 0930
hours GMT in the vicinity of Semipalatinsk (50�N,
78�E). A preliminary estimate establishes the yield
in the range of 20 to 200 KT, with a most probable
yield of 60 KT.
Air activity at Semipalatinsk in the past week has been
indicative of imminent nuclear testing. Events in the Novaya
Zemlya area suggestive of further nuclear testing have in-
cluded the disappearance of two weather stations from the
Dikson collective on 7 March.
and an increase of naval transport flights into
Belushya between 1 and 10 March.
TOP SECRET
15 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN page 1
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Soviet Long Range Exercises in Arctic
�
at least ten and probably
16 BEAR turboprop heavy bombers flew long-distance
round-robins from bases in the Ukraine and Volga Basin
into the Soviet Arctic, some possibly as far north as 84
degrees. This is the largest number of turboprop heavy
bombers yet to be noted in any one operation, and the
first major operation by heavy aircraft in the Arctic re-
gions. The flights apparently were carried out by three
or four groups of aircraft, and total distances covered
ranged from about 5,800 nautical miles to about 6,200
nautical miles.
On the return flights, some of the aircraft were sched-
uled to fly over bombing, ranges, indicating the operations
probably were navigation - practice bombing operations. It
Is not possible to determine whether scheduled routes were
followed exactly, although it is certain the aircraft were
operating over the Novaya Zemlya - Barents Sea region.
It is possible that this flight will be followed by similar
operations involving heavy bombers, in a second phase of
the current Soviet Long Range Aviation Arctic training pro-
grant The recent activity by BADGER jet medium bombers
from Arctic bases probably constituted the first phase. In
the period 27 January - 13 March, .23 BADGERS were deployed
from the .western USSR and Soviet Far East to Arctic bases
at Tiksi and Anadyr, and carried out navigation-familiariza-
tion flights�somewhat hampered by bad weather�before re-
turning to home bases. In the same time period, at least
six other jet medium bombers operated from Olenya, in the
Kola Peninsula, in support of nuclear tests in the Novaya
Zemlya area on 23 and 27 February.
TOP SECRET
15 Mar 513 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
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SECRET
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Situation in Indonesia
�
Army Chief of Staff Nasution, after inspecting captured
areas in Central Sumatra, informed President Sukarno on 12
March that government actions had been successful and that
some troops of the Central Sumatran regime had surrendered.
He said operations were being continued, cooperation among
the three services was good, and sea-borne troops were mov-
ing into the interior, presumably referring to forces that are
moving up the Siak River. Nasution stated that a "report on
the western operation is not yet in," a reference which would
appear to reinforce reports that a landing on the west coast--
probably in the Padang area--is imminent.
The dissidents are reliably reported to be maintaining
a main line of resistance on the road between the Caltex oil
center of Pakanbaru and their own stronghold at Bukittinggi.
They have sent two companies to reinforce troops who have
withdrawn along that road from the east coast areas now held
by the government. Dissident leader Hussein has told the
revolutionary cabinet withdrawal from west coast positions
may also be necessary. The rebel cabinet has ordered the
dismissal of the Bukittinggi police chief, who appeared to be a
central government informer.
The entire Caltex operating area is now under central
government control, and Caltex officials reported on 13
March that all facilities are intact although some equipment
is in the hands of the military. Barring unforeseen develop-
ments, Caltex expected to resume production as soon as its
tankers could be put back on the Siak River.
In North Sumatra, an area of chronic tension and mixed
sympathies, one faction has tentative plans for a coup
against the local army commander in the near future, and at
the same time leaders of the long-standing Atjehnese dissi-
dent movement in northernmost Sumatra may make another
military attempt to take over the area. Both groups probably
wo4d cooperate with the Central Sumatran dissidents although
a..elrual military assistance would not necessarily follow.
15 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN page 3
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The Bukittinggi radio has claimed that the progovern-
ment commander in the Tapanuli region on the northwest
coast of Sumatra has been overthrown and that the new lead-
er has declared his support of the dissident movement.
In Manila, President Garcia has announced that the
Philippines will recognize whichever side wins in Indonesia.
SECRET
15 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
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--TOP-SEC-RE
Worsening Saudi Relations With Yemen
Attacks by UAR authorities against King Saud may soon
be broadened to expose Saud's recent moves to cultivate
support among Yemeni tribes and undermine the Imam.
The Imam on 12 March told Saud he had received numerous
reports of Saudi "interference" in South Yemen, that Saud
had sent agents with funds to contact tribes in southern
Yemen, and that these agents had offered the tribes Saudi
protection against Yemeni government forces.
The Imam's charges are of unprecedented bluntness and
may reflect assurances of Egyptian support resulting from
recent affiliation with the UAR. The Imam has long harbored
suspicions of Saud, to whom he unsuccessfully appealed last
fall for return of political refugees who, the Imam was con-
vinced, were plotting against him.
In early February Saud became apprehensive over the
threat to Saudi Arabia posed by Yemen's association with
the Sino-Soviet bloc and with Nash.% antimonarchical state.
He ordered his governors on the Yemeni frontier to chltivate
the favor of Yemeni tribal leaders who had previously sought
Saud's support against the Imam.
TOP SECRET
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TOP SECRET
�
King Saud's Problems
King Saud is continuing his effort to minimize the
furor over his conspiracies against Egypt and Syria. Al-
though foreign journals are banned from Saudi Arabia,
most Saudis are well informed of Nasir's charges as a
result of Cairo and Damascus radio broadcasts. Neverthe-
less, the atmosphere in the west coast trade center of
Jidda is reported to be remarkably calm.
Crown Prince Faysales estrangement from the King is
evident On 11 March,
Saud informed Faysal that he would not respond to Egyptian
and Syrian lies, arguments, and insults. Faysal, who ap-
pears to have been virtually excluded from policy matters
since his return from abroad in January, professed ig-
norance of Egyptian charges against Saud.
Faysal has been warned by a Saudi confidant in
Cairo that in the interest of his country's future he should
cease sulking in his tent and effect reconciliation with the
King.
Saud has acted further to strengthen internal security
and reduce Egyptian influence in his country. The Saudi
Ministry of Defense: has been reorganized, and the King's
son, Defense Minister Fahad3 has received added authority
as inspector general of all services. Young, English-speak-
ing officers have been placed in key positions.
Saud was sending heavy
arms and ammunition to the loyal governor of eastern Arabia.
4.
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TOP SECRET
Sudanese Prime Minister Prepares for Egyptian "Attack"
Prime Minister Khalil said on 10 March that the Sudan
expects an "attack" by President Nasir and is prepared to
meet it
The Saudi ambassador in Khartoum
was told the Sudanese preparations include a
military aid agreement with Ethiopia and discussions with
Western ambassadors.
Khalil reportedly said he expected Nasir to act when
the consequences of the recent Sudanese elections become
apparent. Egyptian aggression would be met by Sudanese
and Ethiopian forces in a holding operation, awaiting the
arrival of the "forces of friendly states."
Nasir's reaction to the setback of Egyptian influence
in the elections has been to initiate a program of bribery
among Sudanese representatives, including a plan to pay
"monthly salaries" to those oftlie.Soutffern Liberal party.
Khalil, who used Egyptian belligerence in the recent border
dispute to considerable political advantage, probably in-
tends to continue countering the significant influence which
Egypt exercises in Sudanese politics, playing up the Egyptian
threat as much as possible to secure both external and do-
meyi .support for his government.
-TOP SECRET
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Political Discontent Growing in Eritrea
A well-organized general strike on 10-11 March in
Asmara, capital of Eritrea, may mark the turning point
in Eritrean-Ethiopian relations and the beginning of open
political defiance against the Ethiopian Government's abuse
of the terms of the 1952 UN-sponsored federation agree-
ment. While the Moslem half of the Eritrean population
has ineffectively protested domination by Christian Ethi-
opia for several years, the local Coptic Christian sup-
port of this general strike reflects a significant broaden-
ing of the Eritrean political opposition.
Despite the careful organization, there is no real
evidence of foreign involvement in the Asmara strike.
if Egypt, the foreign
power most likely to meddle in Eritrea, had been involved,
Moslem activity would have been predominant. The latest
strikes in both Asmara and Massaua, however, have had
largely Christian participation. The most recent evidence
of widespread political discontent among Moslems came
in earlier popular demonstrations in Cheren and Agordat.
Further disorders in Eritrea are probable, but an
effective. Eritrean revolt seems unlikely at this time.
-COMIDEN11-AL-
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� -CONFIDENTIAL- �
Japan Plans High-Level Talks to Break Fishery Impasse
With USSR
Two months of negotiations have failed to break the
Soviet-Japanese stalemate over fishing rights in the north-
west Pacific Ocean for 1958. Tokyo, believing that a
political rather than a technical approach Win be neces-
sary to obtain_ relaxation of the restrictive Soviet posi-
tion, has decided to send Agriculture-Forestry Minister
Akagi to Moscow.
The USSR has refused to discuss certain aspects of
the fishery problem unless Japan agrees to resume nego-
tiations for a peace treaty. Tokyo may be willing to meet
this demand if it is made a price for a fisheries settlement.
The Kishi government, however, has insisted that the
USSR must acknowledge Japanese claims to the southern
Kuril Islands before a peace treaty can be concluded. Mos-
cow insists just as firmly that these islands are Soviet ter-
ritory and refuses to discuss further disposition of them.
Present Soviet proposals in the talks, which are held
annually to establish rules for the coming fishing season,
would severely limit Japanese salmon fishing in northern
waters and ban Japanese fishing in broad expanses of So-
viet-claimed offshore waters and the Sea of Okhotsk.
The Foreign Ministry has told the American Embassy
that Akagi's instructions are limited to fishery problems,
but he is reported to be carrying a personal letter from
Prime Minister Kishi to Premier Bulganin, as well as
sible proposals for a cultural agreement.
-CONFIDENTIAL-
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I II. THE WEST
Greek Caretaker Government Receives Vote of Confidence
The vote of confidence given the caretaker government
of Prime Minister Georgakopoulos by the Greek Chamber of
Deputies on 13 March clears the way for probable passage
of a new electoral law, dissolution of the Chamber of Depu-
ties, and national elections early in May. The government
received the support of the two largest parties in Greece,
the National Radical Union (ERE) and the Liberal party,
which together account for over two thirds of the votes in
the 300-member chamber. Spokesmen for the ERE and the
Liberals also indicate that the proposed electoral law prob-
ably will be passed without significant change. Other pont-
ibal. leaders regard it as designed to eliminate the smaller
parties and predict that it will force them into coalitions
with the leftists. Debate on the proposed law is expected
to last from a week to ten days.
Meanwhile, the frantic political maneuvering which
began with the resignation of the Karamanlis government
on 2 March continues. The ERE appears to be a strong co-
hesive political party, and its leader, former Premier
Constantine Karamanlis, is confident of victory in the forth-
coming elections. Leaders of the Liberals and the other
parties, representing all shades of the political spectrum,
fear possible fragmentation of existing parties. The pro-
posed electoral law will virtually ensure, coalitions of par-
ties or "electoral fronts," but alignment .of the various
pa ies remains uncertain.
-CONFIDENTIAL
15 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN .?age 10
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SECRET �
\
Police Demonstrations Further Weaken French Premier
French Premier Gaillard's coalition has been further
shaken by demands for the dismissal of Interior Minister
Bourges-Maunoury on the grounds that the 13 March police
demonstrations in Paris showed his incapacity. Most polit-
ical leaders probably are still reluctant at a time so near
the April local elections, to precipitate a crisis during the
confidence vote on constitutional reform due 18 March, but
they face increasingly grudging support, and hostile minor-
ities are growing in all the coalition parties.
Three of these parties are meeting this week end, and
conflicting demands on Gaillard may result. Guy Mollet ex-
pects to be able to control opposition from within the So-
cialist part5ibut if he is unsuccessful, he may be obliged to
call a special party congress to avoid a showdown in the as-
sembly on 18 March. Independent leader Duchet believes his
party's congress may decide to pull out of the government.
At the Popular Republican party's directing committee meet-
ing two factions intend to attack Gaillard. Meanwhile, De-
fense Minister Chaban-Delmas is under pressure from his
Social Republican party to resign.
Both the police demonstrations and the mounting con-
troversy over the government's North African policy will in-
crease speculation on the return of General de Gaulle, who
seems increasingly willing to come back. The deputies' re-
luctance to face this alternative and the nationalistic reaction
to Bourguibat continued intransigence may enable Gaillard
to survive the crisis.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
15 March 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet nuclear tests: The USSR conducted two nuclear
tests of comparatively low yield approximately an hour
apart on 14 March at the widely separated Novaya Zemlya
and Semipalatinsk nuclear proving grounds. For Joint
Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee statement see page 1.
Soviet ICBM/ESV launching attempt: The Guided Mis-
siles Intelligence Committee issued the following statement
on 14 March 1958:
It has been previously reported that the USSR
conducted a valid countdown on the Tyura Tam mis-
sile test range on 12 March, but failed to launch the
ICBM/ESV. However, the missile could not have
been seriously damaged by the attempt, since the
delays announced thereafter indicate the USSR ex-
pected to try again in a few hours.
� Further analysis of the previously available
information increases the likelihood that the mis-
sile to be launched is a test ICBM
it is believed
that the next scheduled attempt to launch this vehicle
will involve the full 8-hour countdown, and may
be preceded by practice activity of the rangehead
and impact areas.
Soviet Arctic air exercises: At least 10--and prob-
ably 16--Soviet Long Range Air Force turboprop heavy
bombers carried out extensive flights into the western
and central Arctic areas on 12 and 13 March. These
flights are the most extensive employment of heavy bomb-
ers ever noted in the Arctic, and possibly represent a
second phase of the current Long Range Aviation Arctic
training program. The first phase apparently ended re-
cently when about 20 jet medium bombers returned to
home bases in western Russia and the Soviet Far East
after about a month's operation from Arctic bases.
(Page 2) (Map)
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Imam brusquely notified Saud on 12 March of reports he
Saud issued orders in early February which indicated that
against the Imam of Yemen may be forthcoming soon. The
had received of Saudi "interference" in southern Yemen.
Saudi Arabia: An exposure of Saudi subversive activity
he had begun operations to stimulate opposition to tile imam's
pro-Egyptian nolicies. (Page 5)
message from Crown Prince Faysal to the King indi-
cates that Faysa1 is remaining aloof from his brother' prob-
lems. King Saud's continuing concern
over internal security and Egyptian influence in the army is
indicated by army staff changes which have brought young,
English-speaking, relatively pro-Western officers to top
posts. A former Aramco adviser, who has had considerable
experience in the area but is inclined to take an alarmist view,
believes that Saud is "terror stricken" and that the Saudi
dynasty is "doomed." (Page 6)
Sudan - Egypt: Prime Minister Khalil apparently antici-
pates further Egyptian action against the Sudan. He states he
will resist and has informed the Saudi representative in
Khartoum that Ethiopia has agreed to come to his aid "until
such time as the forces of friendly states arrive." Mean-
while, Egypt continues its efforts to buy up parliamentary
deputies with the hope of expanding its political influence.
Ethiopia: The well-organized general strike in the capi-
tal of Eritrea on 10-11 March appears to be the beginning of
open defiance by the Eritreans of the Ethiopian Government.
Additional disorders are expected to occur because of the
partial strike taking place in the seaport city of Massaua and
the tense atmosphere in Asmara. (Page 8)
(Map)
Japan - USSR: Japan is sending the minister of agri-
culture and forestry to Moscow to attempt a top-level "polit-
ical" settlement of the present stalemate over vital fishing
rights in the northwest Pacific. While the Japanese Govern-
ment has stated the minister's authority is limited to the
fishery problem, past experience would indicate he might
negotiate on other issues. He might possibly agree to the
opening of peace treaty discussions in the near future should
the USSR demand this as a price for fishing rights.
(Page 9) (Map)
III. THE WEST
Greek political situation: Following a vote of confi-
dence on 13 March, the caretaker government of Premier
Georgakopoulos is now pressing for passage of a new elec-
toral law, to be followed by dissolution of the Chamber of
Deputies, and national elections in early May. Prospects
for passage of the electoral law, originally proposed by
former Prime Minister Karamanlis and designed to favor
the two largest political parties in Greece, appear good
despite criticism from smaller party leaders who warn that
its enactment will force them into electoral coalitions with
the left. In preparation for elections, frantic political
maneuvering continues. Pa .e 10)
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