CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/10/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02998392
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: October 23, 1958

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CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS
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23 OCTOBER 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet diplomat says USSR to sus-
pend nuclear tests by 31 October.
Taiwan Strait - Communist shelling
continued on 22 October. Nearly
40,000 tons of supplies delivered to
Chinmens during cease-fire.
Clogged Chinese Communist rail
lines delay deliveries of Soviet POL.
COmmunist China - Recent claims of
economic ac1 ieve ts men nrobahlv ex-
aggerated.
Ichtushchey praises UAR; UAR vice
president in Moscow seeking arms.
Rumania to aid in construction of oil
refinery in India.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
0 Jordan - Husayn's forthcoming vacation
in Europe may bring new UAR moves
against monarchy.
0 UAR continues financial assistance
to Karami's supporters in Lebanon.
LATE ITEM
()Latest Soviet nuclear test is second
largest ever detected.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
23 October 1958
DAILY BRIEF
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR: The USSR will "definitely suspend" nuclear tests
by 3 (Mather, the opening date of the Geneva talks on a test-
cessation agreement, according to a high-ranking Soviet Em-
bassy official in London. Suspension of tests would permit the
USSR to enter the Geneva talks in a strong position for insist-
ing upon a permanent cessation agreement.
(Page 1)
Taiwan Strait situation: The Communists continued their
bombardment of the Chinmens on 22 October, firing over 8,300
rounds between 0600 and 1800. The Chinese Nationalist Minis-
try of Defense has estimated that nearly 40,000 tons of supplies
were delivered to Chinmen during the cease-fire period. ( �a
Watch dommittee conclusion: No Sino-Soviet bloc coun-
try intends deliberately to initiate direct military action against
US forces abroad, US allies, or areas peripheral to the orbit
in the immediate future, except as noted below.
NOTE: Breaking of the cease-fire suggests that the Chinese
Communists will, as they deem necessary, continue military
action against the offshore islands in order to display their
capability to retain the military initiative and to support their
political objectives for the Strait area. While the Chinese
Communists may expand the scope of their military activities
against the offshore islands, available evidence does not indi-
cate that they will do so to the extent of deliberately risking
hostilities with the United States.
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USSR-Communist China: The USSR on 7 October was
forced to halt rail delivery of petroleum products to China
for five days because the Chinese rail system had been un-
able to move the oil from border transfer points. As a
result, several thousand Soviet tank cars had been immo-
bilized. Peiping had previously requested a speed-up in
POL deliveries from the USSR. There is little prospect
for an early solution of China's transportation problems.
(Page 3) (Map)
Communist China:
additional doubt on the accuracy of
Chinese Communist claims of record economic achievements
publicized during the recent October celebrations. The State
Statistical Bureau considered the compilation of production
data in this instance a "political task" and ordered the sub-
mission of data appropriate for the celebration of National
Day, Since no figures were given the
margin of differences between what was claimed and what
has actually been achieved is not known. This is a marked
departure from past Chinese and present Soviet practice of
striving for accuracy in statistical reporting.
(Page 4-)
USSR- UAR: Khrushchev's speech of 20 October prais-
ing the UAR for "understanding" Soviet policies, particularly
in the field of economic aid, is probably intended to strengthen
the impression in the Arab wor!cl that Soviet and UAR policies
and interests are in complete harmony. Visiting UAR Vice
President Amir probably has raised Egyptian complaints
against Communist activities in the UAR and Iraq, in addi-
tion to seeking additional bloc arms. Moscow recently ex-
pressed displeasure over UAR arms aid to Iraci.
Rumania-India: India and Rumania on 20 October signed
an agreement providing Rumanian aid for construction of an
oil refinery in Assam State in easternmost India. The refin-
ery's annual capacity is expected to be about 750,000 tons.
Rumanian aid, estimated at about $18,000,000, will appar-
ently include technical help in construction. This will bring
total Soviet bloc aid to India to about $350.000.000.
23 Oct 58
DAILY BRIEF ii
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%1810 II. ASIA-AFRICA "�41#
Jordan: The impending departure on vacation of King
Husayn and the remaining members of the Jordanian royal
family could invite new moves by UAR-supported antiregime
groups against the monarchy. The departures will coincide
with the period for withdrawal of British troops, now expected
to be concluded by about 10 November.
(Page 6)
Lebanon: UAR intelligence dispatched $28,000 to
Lebanese Prime Minister Karamit8 supporters in Tripoli
on 20 October. UAR financial assistance also has been
sent to ex-rebel headquarters in Sidon since President Shi-
hab's election. This assistance reflects further attempts by
the UAR to influence the irientAtion Qf the Lebanese Govern-
ment.
Watch Committee conclusion--Middle Easi: Although a
deliberate initiation of open hostilities in the Middle East is
unlikely in the immediate future, the situation remains un-
stable throughout the area and incidents and coups could oc-
cur at any time.
LATE ITEM
Soviet nuclear test: The Joint Atomic Energy Intelli-
gence Committee made the following announcement at 1600
on 22 October:
"The Atomic Energy Detection System has
reported that an explosion occurred at 0821 GMT
(0421 EDT) on 22 October 1958 in the vicinity of
Novaya Zemlya. A preliminary estimate of the
yield places it at about 8 megatons.
*This is the 14th explosion since the USSR resumed the test-
ing of nuclear devices on 30 September. The estimated
yield reported by the Atomic Energy Detection System in-
dicates that this test was the second largest ever to have
been detected in the Soviet Union. The largest detected
Soviet test--10 megatons�occurred on 18 October of this
year.
23 Oct 58
DAILY BRIEF
111
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR to Suspend Nuclear Testing by 31 October
A Soviet Embassy official in London, who had just re-
turned from Moscow, told a US Embassy officer on 20 Oc-
tober that the USSR will "definitely suspend" nuclear tests
by 31 October, the opening date of the Geneva talks on a
test-cessation agreement.
The USSR intends to go to Geneva with as strong a posi-
tion as possible and may emphasize its willingness to enter
immediately into a permanent and unconditional test-cessa-
tion agreement in anticipation of placing the United States and
Britain in a contrasting "negative" position. Soviet leaders
are certain the US and UK will not agree to a permanent test
cessation before a workable control system is installed. Fur-
thermore, official French statements have opposed any agree-
ment not tied to cessation of production of fissionable materials
for military purposes and gradual conversion of existing stock-
piles to peaceful purposes.
The original Soviet announcement, preceding actual test
resumption, of naval and air maneuvers in the Novaya Zemlya
area stated the activities would extend until 25 October. So-
viet Foreign Minister Gromyko's 7 October press statement,
while insisting on Soviet freedom to continue testing until the
USSR had reached the equivalent of US-UK tests conducted
since 31 March,, did not stipulate that MoseOw actually intended
to reach numerical equality with the West. The press state-
ment was intended to justify Soviet test resumption and to pre-
pare the way for Moscow to cast itself later in the role of
volunteering unconditionally to give up testing for the sake
of world peace,
-CONFIDENTIAL-
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soh,
000 Communist troop
strength
000 Nationalist troop
4 Piston fighter
+ Jet fighter
+ Piston light bomber
4.. Jet light bomber
+ Ground-attack
SELECTED AIRFIELDS INDICATED IN BOLD TYPE
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**1
Taiwan Strait Situation
Communist artillery continued firing against the Chin-
mens on 22 October. A total of 8,376 rounds were fired be-
tween 0600 and 1800,with over 5,000 rounds fired during the
afternoon, according to a Nationalist announcement. Most
of the shells landed on Chinmen and only a few hundred rounds
fell on the other islands of the group.
Peiping issued its 39th and 40th "serious warnings" a
few hours apart on 22 October. The 39th warning alleged
aerial intrusion by a US aircraft over Fukien and Kwangtung
Provinces during daylight hours on the 22nd. This warning
refers to the intrusion as a "criminal action which gravely
violates" Communist Chinese air space. The 40th warning
accused two US warships of intruding into territorial waters
in the Matsu and Pingtan area.
The Communists apparently are continuing the rotation
of jet fighter units in East China. Seventeen MIG-17's flew
from Huiyang airfield to Liencheng on 22 October,
Communist aircraft operat-
ing from East China bases continue to be active in what appears
to be defensive patrolling and exercise activity. Communist
naval activity as of 21 October remains high.
Nearly 40,000 tons of supplies were delivered to Chinmen
during the cease-fire period, according to a Nationalist Defense
Ministry estimate. An official logistical report which does not
take into account all recent deliveries indicates that rations and
artillery ammunition now on hand are sufficient for an estimated
66 and 45 days respectively.
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ke Baikal
M 0 14%, G OL IA
SHANGHA
23 OCTORER 19211
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21-P 3;0 .90 sr
Nautical Miles
100 200 300 400 503
Statute Miles
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Communist Chinese Transport Difficulties
On 7 October Moscow informed Peiping that it planned
to halt rail deliveries of crude oikfand petroleum produtts to
China for five days. Moscow acknowledged this step would
lead to nonfulfillment of shipping plans, but explained that
the inability of Chinese railroad authorities to provide suf-
ficient tank cars was causing tie-ups at or en route to the bor-
der stations .of Otpor and Manchouli.
Peiping had requested in August that the entire year's
quota of certain petroleum products be delivered by the end
of October. The USSR agreed, but by early September it was
apparent that China was encountering difficulties in handling
the requested increases, which added more than 50,000 tons
to normal monthly rail deliveries of 150,000 tons.
Peiping will have to use more than half its estimated
5,000 tank cars to move the petroleum products which have
� accumulated at the Sib-Soviet border. Congestion there is
only one aspect of the larger problem facing the Chinese trans-
portation system, which is proving unable to meet fully the de-
mands of the regime's continuing "giant leap forward" in eco-
nomic development.
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tfts,
Comment on Chinese Communist Economic Claims
the high economic achieve-
ments claimed by Peiping on the occasion of its 1 October hol-
iday were more a propaganda exercise than an attempt to reflect
the realities of China's current economic situation. This is a
departure from the practice in recent years of improving the
accuracy of statistical reporting.
authorities in Foochow
advised a subordinate unit that the State Statistical Bureau, in
order to "make dedications" on 1 October to Chairman Mao
Tse-tung and the central committee of the Chinese Communist
party, wanted September figures on industrial production around
20 September. The unit was told to use "actual figures" for the
first twenty days of the month and "estimated figures" for the
last ten days. Foochow directed that the compilation of these
figures should be regarded as a "political task," adding that a
formal report for the month could be submitted later. A week
earlier, units in Tsinghai Province had been ordered to submit
a similar commemorative report.
Peiping's view that statis-
tical work should render "faithful service" to the party's polit-
ical struggle and must be performed under the direct supervi-
sion of 01 e pafty committees. The political department of the
Honan party committee asked a Tsinan publishing house for the
return of a manuscript containing figures on the province's 1958
increased wheat yields for "examination" by the provincial party
committee and its political organ.
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UAR Vice President's Visit to Moscow
Since arriving in Moscow from Prague on 19 October,
UAR Vice President and Minister of War Marshal Amir has
met twice with Khrushchev, as well as with other top Soviet
officials. Khrushchev and Amir, in their public exchange
of compliments on the policies of their respective countries,
both have tried to give an impression of harmony. While
Amir is seeking additional bloc arms aid for the alleged pur-
pose of "balancing" recent Israeli acquisitions of military
equipment from Britain, the talks probably have also cov-
ered current differences between Moscow and Cairo.
Nasir indicated
that Amir would "complain" to the USSR about the anti-UAR
activity of the Iraqi Communists, as well as Communist party
activities in Egypt and Syria. Nasir is known to be concerned
over this problem and reportedly discussed it with Soviet party
presidium member Mukhitclinov during his September visit to
Cairo.
Amir also was reported ready to discuss disagreement
over the price of Egyptian cotton. Moscow apparently has
postponed cotton purchases until Egypt will drop prices to con-
form with the price cut on cotton sold to the West.
Khrushchev has probably used Arnir's visit to air Soviet
annoyance over UAR offers of arms to Iraq.
point.
Soviet officials had expressed displeasure on this
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Nue
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Developments in Jordan
The scheduled departure of King Husayn
for vacation in Europe, coinciden-
tally with the withdrawal of British troops, will leave
no member of the royal family in Jordan.
The last British troops now
are expected to leave the Jordanian port of Aqaba by about
10 Noviember. The absence of the royal family could facili-
tate new attempts by antiregime groups to overthrow the
monarchy.
Jordanian authorities have decided that martial law
must be continued, although some controls may be relaxed
following assessment of public attitudes after the British
departure.
A continued UAR effort to support antiregime groups
in Jordan
instructing Damascus to send Into
Jordan the "things," presumably arms or sabotage devices,
which would arrive shortly from Egypt.
plans to distribute arms among 13ani
Khalid tribesmen, who inhabit the Syrian.-Jordanian border
area northwest of Amman and are hostile to the Jordanian
monarchy.
informed
outstations in western Jordan that Israeli troops, supported
by armor, had taken up positions near the frontier opposite
Qalqilia, at Israel's narrowest point.
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Israel had assembled brigade groups on both
the Lebanese and Syrian frontiers.. The Jordanian report-
ing unit interpreted these moves as an indication that Israel
was prepared to take action against Jordan after the Brit-
ish withdrawal.
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4110 �41111
THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser to the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department-of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
CONFIDENTIAL
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