CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/02/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161987
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: February 1, 1957

Approved foIr �...,Rei_lea,s,e2a/112/04
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
ki617// 3/04
3.3(h)(2)
1 February 1957 3.5(c)
/7/
Lopy NO.
,31
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLA
1- I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S Cg
NEXT REVIEW DATE-
AnUATTHit :11472-
2
./ REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Tar SECRET
4
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CONTENTS
1�7,k's
. SYRIA MAY ALLOW PIPELINE REPAIR (
(page 3).
2. SOVIETS EXPEDITE NEW SHIPMENT OF LIGHT ARMS TO
YEMEN page 4).
SOVIET ARMS IN AFGHANISTAN
(page 5).
RT ON ECONOMIC PROGRESS IN 1956
(page 6).
5. UPSURGE IN ANTI-BRITISH VIOLENCE ON CYPRUS EX-
PECTED WITH UN DEBATE (page 8).
e 6. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT SEEKS TO RALLY MASS SUPPORT
(Secret) (page 9).
7,
8.
9,
10.
PEIPING NEGOTIATING WITH TIBETAN REBELS
(page 10).
LAOTIAN PREMIER SEES POSSIBLE CUT IN WESTERN AID
AS "BLACKMAIL" (page 11).
NtEACIVIIt LAN CANCELS PROPOSED VISIT TO USSR
(page 12).
POLITICAL UNREST IN FRENCH CAMEROONS
(page 13).
ANNEX--Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee
(page 14).
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1. SYRIA MAY ALLOW PIPELINE REPAIR
the cabinet will discuss the restoration of
the Iraq Petroleum Company pipeline at
its next meeting.
Syrian prime
minister Asali has given a hint of similar
action.
On 30 January the IPC paid the equivalent
of $13,720,000 to the Syrian government for transit of oil up
to November 1956, when the pipeline was cut. The oil com-
pany had already paid $700,000 on 10 January, the due date
for the normal advance payment for 1957.
Comment The promptness of IPC's payments plus the
pressure applied on Syria by a number of
foreign powers may make the Syrian government more willing
to allow restoration of the pipeline. However, the basic deci-
sion on resuming oil flow will probably be made in Cairo.
1 Feb 57
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2. SOVIETS EXPEDITE NEW SHIPMENT OF LIGHT
ARMS TO YEMEN
Comment on:
A 152-ton Soviet bloc arms shipment
for Yemen, consisting of 5,000 rifles,
150 machine guns and 3.1 million
rounds of ammunition, was scheduled
to arrive in Egypt on about 28 January,
the Soviet ambassador in Cairo was
Iritilling the imam's wishes with such speed!'
In addition to the Soviet bloc arms shipment, a 30-ton con-
signment of Egyptian light arms for Yemen is being readied
at Suez.
some of the arms would be flown from Egypt
to Jidda in Saudi Arabia. When a "shipload" of arms had been
accumulated in Jidda, a Yemeni ship would carry the arms
down the coast to Yemen.
The imam was also advised that in the
opinion of a Czech arms expert the cost of shipping "the anti-
tank guns" from the bloc to Yemen by air "was very high!'
The imam was advised that his minister in Cairo would re-
quest the "speedy shipment of the other items to Egypt by
boat!'
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3n SOVIET ARMS IN AFGHANISTAN
Soviet boats unloaded 200,000 rifles, 180
artillery pieces, and 18,000 cases of am-
munition at Afghan entry ports on the Oxus
River on 30 October and 5 November 1956,
45 Soviet jets,
30 piston aircraft, and two helicopters are at Mazar-i-Sharif,
and that 50 Afghan pilots are being trained there by six Rus-
sians. only half the arms promised to Afghanistan
by the USSR have been delivered.
Comment Afghanistan is believed to have received
substantial shipments of ground forces
equipment from the USSR throughout 1956. If the October-
November shipment was as large as indicated, Kabul should
now have enough small arms to re-equip its 64,000-man regu-
lar army and security forces as well as to supply weapons to
its large reserve and tribal groups.
Eleven to 17 jet fighters apparently arrived
at Mazar in late October, However, a subsequent report from
a usually reliable source has indicated that the number of air-
craft at Mazar was substantially greater.
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4. SOVIET REPORT ON ECONOMIC PROGRESS IN 1956
Comment on:
According to an official summary re-
leased by TASS, over-all growth of the
Soviet economy in 1956 was consistent
with the goals set in the Five-Year Plan
ending in 1960: national income increased
by 12 percent; total industry, 11 percentb, heavy industry,
11.4 percent; and light industry, 9.4 percent. Capital in-
vestment showed a substantial increase but cannot be pre-
cisely evaluated on the basis of available data. Industrial
labor productivity in 1956 increased only 7 percent, whereas
an average of 8.5 percent is required if the Sixth Five-Year
Plan goals are to be met. The supply of foodstuffs improved
considerably owing to the good agricultural year. The in-
crease in retail trade probably was sufficient to absorb most
of the increased purchasing power of the population resulting
from higher pensions, higher average wages, and payments
for the bumper crop.
Heavy industry grew irregularly in 1956;
petroleum, electric power, some nonferrous metals and most
machine building industries did well. Several mutually de-
pendent industries--coal, ferrous metals, timber and cement--
fell short of 1956 goals and are slightly below the annual aver-
age rates required to meet the 1960 goals. The deficiency in
cement production is by far the most serious, being about
2 million tons or about 8 percent below the 1956 plan. Most
processed foods did quite well in 1956, with excellent pros-
pects for 1957, while the output of textiles, clothing and shoes
is according to plan. Furniture showed a negligible increase,
probably related to the tight supply of timber products. The
most important shortfall to the consumer was housing, which
was about 10 percent behind the plan, and although the abso-
lute increment was substantial, this may be the most serious
Soviet internal economic problem.
At the moment, agriculture is a booming
success. Most crops were good to excellent and deliveries to
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the state showed corresponding increases. Substantial in-
creases in grain and milk deliveries are especially note-
worthy. Livestock herds generally increased. Although
a considerable portion of collective farm income was si-
phoned off for investment, there was still considerable
increase in money incomes of the rural population. For
the first time since Stalin's death, the major economic
problems facing the Soviet "collective leadership" are in
industry rather than in agriculture.
At this early stage of the plan the slight
lags in coal and metal, and the more serious lags in cement,
housing and labor productivity, represent an incipient, but
not yet serious, threat to the 1960 goals. The success of
the plan depends on the ability of Pervukhin's new committee
to tighten up the operation of the economy and to rephase the
ambitious investment program. It also depends on the work-
ers' reactions to the improved supply of foodstuffs, the new
social welfare and wage measures, and the government's ef-
forts to overcome the housing shortage.
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5. UPSURGE IN ANTI-BRITISH VIOLENCE ON CYPRUS
EXPECTED WITH UN DEBATE
Comment on:
Anti-British activity on Cyprus, includ-
ing terrorist attacks and perhaps strikes,
is expected to increase sharply when UN
'CiPhatP nn fh runrim nrnhlam hian.irl
captured members of EOKA, the
k.,ypriot unaergrouna guerrilla organization, say a wave of
terrorist attacks is planned to coincide with the UN debate.
The British claim they have killed or
captured about half of EOKA's "hard core" in the last two
months. EOKA has been relatively inactive in that time and
failed to respond to the Cypriot Turkish outbreaks on Cyprus
of 20-22 January. However, EOKA probably is still capable
of widespread hit-and-run attacks.
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6. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT SEEKS TO RALLY
MASS SUPPORT
President Sukarno is sending veterans,
many of them extreme leftists, to all
areas of Indonesia to contact other rev,-
olutionary veterans, the so-called "troops
of 1945;' to whip up fervor for Sukarno's
proposed "advisory council!' Sukarno has adopted this method
because of opposition from political party leaders to his plans,
and the failure of the army chief of staff so far to unite the
army and place it at Sukarno's disposal.
Comment Sukarno apparently hopes to create such
wide mass support for his reorganization
of the government that neither political party leaders nor op-
position army elements will challenge him. He is believed
capable of rallying widespread support, but there is some doubt
that he can find enough capable individuals to set up and exe-
cute the work of his "council" effectively unless he relies
heavily on the Communists.
The introduction of strong Communist influ-
ence in the government would probably create further army op-
position to Sukarno and cause more disaffections from the cen-
tral government in outlying areas.
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7 PF TPTNG NF GOTTA TING WPTIT TTRFTAN' RRIAFT
Peiping has asserted that
Tibetan armed resistance is confined
to Tibetans living in Western China,
the disorders have spread deep into Tibet.
Chang
Ching7-wu, the ranking Chinese Communist in Lhasa, cap-
ital of Tibet, was told by Peiping to report on negotiations
with Tibetan rebels. Instructed to make daily reports "un-
til appeasement has been made," Chang was warned that too
many concessions to the rebels would make them "too proud"
and more difficult to handle.
a rebellion occurred recently in the Lhasa
area, and tne uninese were anxious that the Dalai Lama re-
turn quickly from India to help restore order.
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8. LAOTIAN PREMIER SEES POSSIBLE CUT IN WESTERN
AID AS "BLACKMAIL"
In an interview published on 30 January
in the government-sponsored Lao Presse,
Premier Souvanna Phouma called critics
of his proposed settlement with the Pathet
Lao "irresponsible and unjust:' Questioned about the possible
loss of Western aid as a consequence of his policy, Souvanna
stated that such an eventuality would constitute "manifest in-
terference in our internal affairs" and would be regarded by
international opinion as "blackmailr
Comment
The tone of this article suggests that
Souvanna, fearing a collapse of his plans
could force his resignation, is commencing a campaign to di-
vert criticism and arouse nationalist sentiment by charging
Western intervention in Laos' internal affairs,
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MACMILLAN CANCELS PROPOSED VISIT TO USSR
Harold Macmillan Was canceled plans
made before he assumed office for the
British prime minister to visit the
USSR this spring, according to the
British charge in 1Vloscow. Macmillan excused himself
on grounds of pressure of work, and apparently made no
reference to the possibility of a future trip.
Comment The Soviet invitation had been accepted
by Eden early last summer. Since the
Soviet intervention in Hungary, British policy has been to
hold exchange visits to a minimum. In the long run, how-
ever, British government leaders probably still believe
that expanding East-West contacts will promote peace.
When the British public's hostility to the USSR eases, the
proposal for a trip to Moscow by the prime minister may
be renewed.
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10. POLITICAL UNREST IN FRENCH CAMEROONS
Popular unrest in the French trust terri-
tory of Cameroons has reached a level
where local French officials feel the only
solution is the early granting of total in-
dependence, according to an American con-
sular official.
Serious disorders occurred in connection
with the Cameroons assembly elections in late December.
The outlawed Communist-oriented nationalist party carried
on guerrilla warfare, attacking communications and assassi-
nating a French official and two assembly members. In addi-
tion, several military engagements took place during which at
least 60 natives were killed. The Cameroons garrison had to
be reinforced with troops from French Equatorial Africa.
Comment There has been unrest in the Cameroons
since the riots of May 1955, which were
instigated by the leftist nationalist party. Popular demands
for independence have been growing rapidly, spurred on by
events elsewhere in French Africa.
On 23 January the Paris cabinet approved
limited self-government for the Cameroons. However, the
measure must be approved by both the Cameroons assembly
and the French National Assembly, and it is not known whether
the nationalists will accept such a proposal. Although mod-
erates who would settle for a self-governing republic within
the French Union won the assembly elections, public opinion
could force them to loin the extremists if Paris delays or of-
fers too little.
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ANNEX
Watch Report 339, 31 January 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in; the imme-
diate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East is
improbable in the immediate future.
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