CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/07/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03169387
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: July 19, 1957

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/11.1
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
1'000.0
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NO
CLASS.
NEXT REV:EW E: 4410//�1'
DAT RFVIEWER:
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19 July 1957
Copy No.
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States
or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri-
ment of the United States.
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CONTENTS
KHRUS CHEV IS HOST AT MOSCOW MEETING OF YUGOSLAV,
BULGARIAN, AND ALBANIAN LEADERS (page 3).
11)2. SOVIET OFFICIAL SEEKS US "UNDERSTANDING AND
SUPPORT" OF KHRUSHCHEV POLICIES (page 4).
143. UNFAVORABLE WEATHER HITS IMPORTANT SOVIET
GRAIN REGIONS (page 5).
OFFICI ED OVER
COURSE OF DISARMAMENT TALKS (page 6).
45. TALKS WITH ALGERIANS LIKELY TO EMBARRASS FRENCH
GOVERNMENT IN CONFIDENCE VOTE (page 7).
00. TUNISIAN PREMIER REPORTEDLY WILL ESTABLISH REPUB-
LIC SOON (page 8).
tj
7, IRAQ WEAKENING ANTI-EGYPTIAN STAND
(page 9).
p68. RETURN OF LEFTIST APRA PARTY LEADER MAY TOUCH
OFF VIOLENCE IN PERU (page 10).
ANNEX--Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee
(page 11).
19 July 57
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10 KHRUSHCHEV IS HOST AT MOSCOW MEETING OF
YUGOSLAV, BULGARIAN, AND ALBANIAN LEADERS
Comment on:
A meeting of Soviet, Yugoslav, Bulgarian
and Albanian leaders was held in Moscow on
18 July. The meeting, repeatedly described
as "comradely" in Moscow's announcement,
appears to have been intended by Khrushchev
to repair the damage he inflicted on Soviet-Yugoslav relations in
his extemporaneous attacks on Tito in Prague last week. The
participation of the Albanian and Bulgarian party leaders, long
among Tito's most bitter enemies, apparently was to emphasize
the sincerity of the USSR's friendly intentions toward Yugoslavia.
The announcement strives to foster Western suspicion of Yugo-
slavia's intentions by giving a picture of an informal get-together
among friends "in a warm and cordial atmosphere."
Because of the brevity of the meeting and the
absence of Tito, it is unlikely that there was any resolution of the
basic ideological differences which are at the root of Yugoslavia's
dispute with the Soviet and satellite leaders. Khrushchev may,
however, have opened the way for talks with Tito, and the Alban-
ian and Bulgarian party leaders may have been admonished to
assume a friendlier attitude toward the Yugoslays.
Tito, for his part, is aware of the many ob-
stacles still hindering a complete rapprochement with Moscow
and realizes that the USSR is not likely to accept him back into
the bloc as long as he insists on his terms. Khrushchev's in-
temperate remarks about Yugoslavia in Prague probably damp-
ened any optimism regarding relations with Moscow which Tito
may have felt as a result of Molotov's ouster. Nevertheless,
Tito in referring to the speech said,
"Oh, I know Khrushchev. The moment he has a drink he
must curse someone or something. It does not have to mean any-
thing at all, and I prefer to ignore it unless he makes it a habit."
All the members of the new Soviet party
secretariat attended, with the exception of Mikhail A. Suslov who
has appeared publicly only once since the June shake-up. Also
notable for his absence was presidium member Anastas I. Mikoyan
who, like Suslov. had much to do in the past year with satellite
affairs.
19 July 57
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2. SOVIET OFFICIAL SEEKS US "UNDERSTANDING AND
SUPPORT" OF KHRUSHCHEV POLICIES
it was extremely important for the lessening of in-
erna ional tensions that the recent Soviet shake-up and Khru-
shchev's policies be received with "understanding and support"
by the United States. Arut-
yunyan clearly implied that unless Khrushchev's policies aimed
at a detente were met with some understanding in the West, par-
ticularly in the US, Khrushchev's position would be weakened
and he might feel forced to change the direction of his efforts.
it was obvious that the Soviet government
wanted to suggest through a neutral country that some Western
gesture be made to support Khrushchev and his policies.
the United States has a unique opportunity to influence Soviet
policy. Khrushchev's internal policies were favor-
able to Western objectives and could lead to a relaxation of inter-
national tension.
Comment Several Soviet officials have told Western-
ers that the purge will lead to improved
international relations but not to any reversals of Soviet foreign
policy. The suggestion that a favorable Western response is
necessary to assure this trend is a further step in the Soviet ef-
fort to exploit the purge to bring about a modification of Western,
and particularly American, policies toward the Soviet Union.
19 July 57
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CONFI
IAL
3. UNFAVORABLE WEATHER HITS IMPORTANT SOVIET
GRAIN REGIONS
Unfavorable weather conditions have pre-
vailed in important grain regions of the
USSR, according to a 13 July Pravda edi-
torial� Soviet Russia on 12 July reported
that there had been dry winds and no rainfall in the Saratov-
Volga area this summer� A Western official returning from
the new lands area on 13 July reported spotty prospects� The
outlook is fair to good for Altai Kral, poor around Pavlodar,
modest in the Akmolinsk area, and "a complete failure" near
Kokchetay.
Comment A poor harvest this year would be a dam-
aging blow to Khrushchevis much-publicized
program to "match" the United States in milk and butter produc-
tion in 1958 since additional fodder supplies are essential for an
increase in output of livestock products.
Ivor,"
19 July 57
KOKCHETAV �
PAVLODAR
AKMOLINSK.
THE NEW
Main area
19 JUL'
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4,
OFFICIAL WORRIED OVER
COURSE OF DISARMAMENT TALKS
Reference:
19 July 57
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5. TALKS WITH ALGERIANS LIKELY TO EMBARRASS
FRENCH GOVERNMENT IN CONFIDENCE VOTE
Comment on:
The French National Assembly on 19 July
is scheduled to vote on a motion of confi-
dence giving the government special
powers to deal with Algerian terrorism
in krance 'ine chances of the government are likely to be
affected by press revelations that Yves Goeau-Brissonniere,
a member of Foreign Minister Pineau's staff, conducted "secret"
talks with Algerian nationalists in Tunis earlier this month.
Right-center deputies whose support Premier Bourges-Maunoury
needs have been particularly insistent that the government fol-
low a strong policy to retain Algeria for France,
Goeau-Brissonniere has told American em-
bassy officials in Paris that he was instructed to talk to the
Algerian nationalists by Premier Bourges-Maunoury without
the knowledge of key cabinet ministers including even Pineau.
He plans to return to Tunis this week end to continue the talks.
In the meantime, he anticipates that his
earlier talks will be given full press treatment since
one paper has already published a story about his contacts. The
"official" explanation for his trip will be that he was a delegate
to a meeting of the International Confederation of Free Trade
Unions,
He believes that the new statute for Algeria
being prepared by the government is of "zero" value, He said
that the Algerian nationalists, while still insisting upon eventual
independence, are willing to negotiate the manner of its coming.
19 July 57
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6� TUNISIAN PREMIER REPORTEDLY WILL ESTABLISH
REPUBLIC SOON-
Tunisian Premier Bourghiba plans to
oust the Bey and declare a republic on
or about 1 August,
j Bourghiba intends to become president with Vice
Premier Bahi Ladgham as premier.
Comment The dissolution of the monarchy has been
the subject of considerable speculation
within Tunisia since Bourghiba assumed control over the gov-
ernment 16 months ago. Opposition by the Sultan of Morocco
and the King of Libya to the dissolution of the Tunisian mon-
archy reportedly has been partially responsible for Bourghiba's
hesitancy to take such a step.
There is no indication that as president,
Bourghiba would relinquish the firm control he has always ex-
ercised over Tunisian affairs.
19 July 57
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7. IRAQ WEAKENING ANTI-EGYPTIAN STAND
un
leftist leaders,
epu y ie o taff General Daghes-
tani believes that Iraqi Prime Minister
Ali Jawdat's order to end Iraq's jamming
of Cairo and Damascus radios and to halt
as brought about by the influence of senior
Jawdat ordered the cessation of jamming
over the protests of the top-level information guidance committee.
believes that this order marks the beginning of
greatly increased Baathist activity in Iraq which may lead to dem-
onstrations and other extreme nationalist pressures.
Comment
The Baathists, who currently dominate
rian politics, are an international Arab
party. They are to be co-operating with Communist
elements in Iraq as well as in Syria. Jawdat has made several
other moves to appease Egypt which tend to weaken the pro-West-
ern alignment of Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon. The
prime minister has made no reference to the Baghdad pact in any
of his public policy statements. Opposition leaders who were ar-
rested or sought refuge in Syria under the previous cabinet are
now being allowed to return to Baghdad.
There is some evidence which suggesfs that
Jawdat's soft foreign policy moves may be inspired by Crown
Prince Abd al-Ilah, who played a predominant part in selecting
the present cabinet.
19 July 57
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8. RETURN OF LEFTIST APRA PARTY LEADER MAY
TOUCH OFF VIOLENCE IN PERU
Comment on:
The arrival on 20 July of Haya de la Torre,
highly controversial founder of the leftist
but non-Communist Peruvian APRA party,
for the APRA congress opening in Lima on
26 July may touch off violence which might seriously threaten the
stability of the Peruvian government. President Prado, who was
elected in 1956 with APRA support and who restored the party to
legal status, has apparently been under army pressure to check
APRA's growing influence in labor and politics. Restive army
officers have reportedly been plotting with conservative, Com-
munist, and powerful Communist-infiltrated opposition groups
since early 1957 to oust Prado because of his "alliance" with
APRA.
The American embassy in Lima comments
that Haya--exiled for several years--still arouses strong feel-
ing among all Peruvians and that Communist and other anti-APRA
elements may use the mass demonstrations of welcome planned
for his arrival to provoke incidents to discredit Haya, APRA, and
the government. The government is alert to this possibility and
determined to prevent such action, but discontented army and con-
servative elements may view a flare-up as an opportunity to move
for the restoration of an authoritarian regime.
19 July 57
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"%ape. Near
ANNEX
Watch Report 363, 18 July 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the Intel-
ligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the continental US or its possessions in the imme-
diate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against US forces abroad, US allies or areas peripheral
to the orbit in the immediate future.
C. Early deliberate initiation of hostilities by Israel or the
Arab states is not probable. Although tensions continue
between the Arab states and Israel and among certain Arab
states themselves, these are not likely to lead to serious
conflict in the immediate future.
19 July 57
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