CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/07/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03169402
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: July 30, 1957

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CONTENTS
1. SITUATION IN GUATEMALA
(page 3).
2. ARGENTINE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
(page 4).
3. TURKEY ADAMANTLY OPPOSED TO INDEPENDENCE
FOR CYPRUS (page 5).
,irpage 6).
K 4. TURKISH CABINET EXAMINES RELATIONS WITH USSR
5. BURMESE ENVOY DISILLUSIONED WITH PEIPING ON
BORDER ISSUE (page 7).
6. PERU REQUESTS CZECHS TO CLOSE LEGATION IN LIMA
(page 8).
7. PHILIPPINE NOMINATING CONVENTION DEADLOCKED
OVER VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE
(page 9).
30 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
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1. SITUATION IN GUATEMALA
Comment on:
The army has emerged as the dominant
force on the Guatemalan political scene,
and it is believed that a military figure
will stand the best chance to be elected
president. There are increasing rumors that interim pres-
ident Luis Arturo Gonzalez Lopez, who has no political fol-
lowing of his own, may be replaced by a military junta if he
fails to act in accordance with the wishes of the army. De-
fense Minister Col. Juan Francisco Oliva already virtually
controls the government.
According to the constitution of 1956, elec-
tions must be held within four months, but the 30-day state of
siege�which may be extended�will postpone the beginning
of the legal four-month waiting period.
Oliva is the strongest of various potential
presidential candidates and is believed to have the support of
the administration party, the National Democratic Movement,
as well as of the army. Although as a cabinet minister he is
constitutionally ineligible to run for president unless he resigns
six months prior to the election, Oliva could well arrange a
waiver of the regulation. Ambassador to the United States Jose
Luis Salazar is also known to aspire to the presidency. Both
men are strongly anti-Communist and pro-United States.
30 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
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2. ARGENTINE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
Comment on:
Parties supporting the Argentine provi-
sional government's call for constitutional
revision appear to have won a major-
ity of the 205 constituent assembly seats on
the basis of 80 percent of the returns from the 28 July election.
At the same time a strong protest was regis-
tered against the government. Without affecting assembly seats,
almost 25 percent of those voting cast blank ballots, as urged by
the Peronistas. Another 21.2 percent went to the Intransigent
Radical Civil Union, led by the demagogic Arturo Frondizi, which
had opposed constitutional revision and had hoped to obtain wide-
spread PeroniSta support.
Continued division and uncertainty in Argen-
tine politics are suggestedby the fact that the largest vote ob-
tained by a single party thus far is the 25.6 percent won by the
progovernment People's Radical Civil Union. Moreover, those
supporting constitutional reform have varying programs, rang-
ing from conservative to Communist. The Communist Party
reportedly has won at least two seats thus far, marking its first
representation in any Argentine assembly.
30 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4
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3. TURKEY ADAMANTLY OPPOSED TO INDEPENDENCE
FOR CYPRUS
Turkish Prime/ mister Menderes told
Ambassador Warren on 26 July that Turkey
probably will not sent representatives to
the proposed 3 September London confer-
ence regarding Cyprus if independence for the island is one of
the alternatives on the agenda. Menderes charged that, despite
his earlier refusal to discuss independence for Cyprus, the
British were now trying to raise it as a possible solution in a
conference of representatives from the UK, Greece, and Turkey.
Warren comments that the Turks are now so
committed to partition that they can accept no other change in
the status quo.
Comment The Turks are adamant against independ-
ence for Cyprus because they see it as merely
a steppingstone to union with Greece. They are unlikely to boy-
cott any conference concerning Cyprus, however, for fear of los-
ing a tactical advantage. In view of the adverse results of the 1955
London conference, Athens has insisted it will not send representa-
tives to another such conference.
London's hope in calling the conference is pre-
sumably to gain domestic and international political credit by
making a gesture toward settlement before the issue is taken up
by the UN General Assembly.
30 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
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T EXAMINES RELATIONS WITH USSR
The American ambassador in Ankara notes
that Prime Minister Menderes may have
conveyed a "gentle warning" that the pres-
ent Turkish position regarding the USSR
could be subject to change. Menderes, in informing Ambassa-
dor Warren of a long cabinet discussion of Russian-Turkish
relations on 25 July, recalled that the Soviets had been making
economic and cultural overtures to Turkey for the past two
years. He said that Defense Minister Zhukov suggested to a
Turkish admiral at the Navy Day celebrations in Leningrad in
mid-July that discussions of ways to improve relations between
the two countries be held in either Ankara or Moscow.
Menderes reminded Ambassador Warren
that the Turks have steadfastly refused to alter their relations
with the USSR. With few exceptions, Turkish individuals and
groups have declined invitations to visit the Soviet Union, and
nearly all Russian offers of economic aid to Turkey have been
rejected. The Turks have maintained that there is no need to
discuss differences between the two countries.
Comment The present shortage of foreign exchange
and internal economic pressures in Turkey
continue to make Soviet economic blandishments attractive.
However, there is no indication that the government of Turkey
is changing its position toward Russian economic or cultural
overtures.
30 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6
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I L.I.CA,IXE., I
5.. BURMESE ENVOY DISILLUSIONED WITH PEIPING
ON BORDERJSSUE
Comment The fact that even the usually optimistic
Hla Maung is now pessimistic over the
prospects of an early border settlement suggests that Burmese
patience in the face of protracted Chinese stalling may be reach-
ing the breaking point.
Hla Maung's may well in-
spire Premier U Nu to criticize Peiping publicly and thus pre-
cipitate another press campaign of the type which last summer
embarrassed Peiping into agreeing to early boundary talks.
U Nu heretofore has sought to minimize the difficulties of nego-
tiating with the Chinese and has consistently held out hope for a
settlement.
Peiping has been haggling with the Burmese
over the northern sector of the disputed area despite the fact
that the Chinese have more economic and military interests in
the south. Peiping's strategy may be eventually to concede to
the Burmese in the north in return for Burmese concessions in
the south, particularly in the area bordering the Wa states.
30 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7
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6. PERU REQUESTS CZECHS TO CLOSE LEGATION IN LIMA
Peruvian Foreign Minister Cisneros told
the US ambassador in Lima on 26 July he
had just asked the Czech charge to close
the Czech legation--the only bloc mission
there. Cisneros said that Peru was not formally breaking rela-
tions but merely advising the Czech government that Peru found
it inconvenient to have its legation in Lima. Peru has no diplo-
matic representatives in Prague.
Cisneros added that his main reason was
to end the biweekly courier visits which he considered the prin-
cipal means by which Peruvian Communists receive instruc-
tions and funds.
Comment The Peruvian action may be designed pri-
marily to conciliate conservative and army
elements who have been critical of the increase in Communist
labor agitation over the past year.
The legation, opened in January 1956, has
made consistent efforts to expand its personnel and activities
in promoting trade. It is now reported staffed by a charge
d'affaires and two commercial attaches. The Czechs have faced
a generally hostile atmosphere in Lima, resulting in a consid-
erable initial delay in securing quarters, sparse attendance at
legation receptions, and attacks in the press.
Czechoslovakia is Peru's leading trading
partner among bloc countries, but trade in 1956 amounted to
only $570,000, almost entirely confined to imports by Peru.
30 July 57
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7. PHILIPPINE NOMINATING CONVENTION DEADLOCKED
nvpn vTry PRESMF.NTTAT, CHOICE
Comment on:
A convention deadlock over the nomina-
tion of a Nacionalista Party vice-pres-
idential candidate for the November
election may result in the emergence of
a dark-horse running mate for President
Garcia, the administration party's pres-
idential nominee. Selection of a vice-
presidential candidate has now been turned
over to the party's executive committee, a maneuver possibly
aimed at bypassing House Speaker Jose Laurel, Jr., who led
convention balloting but failed to receive the required 60 per-
cent.
Meetings between Garcia and the rival
vice-presidential aspirants failed to resolve the deadlock.
Garcia's refusal to state a preference for a running mate,
despite his own overwhelming first-ballot victory, suggests
not only his willingness to drop the controversial Laurel,
but a possible tacit agreement among party leaders on a dark-
horse candidate.
Prominently mentioned in this connection,
according to American embassy reports, are Senators Gil
Puyat and Lorenzo Sumulong, both of whom are proven vote-
getters, acceptable to all party factions and less likely than
Laurel to arouse strong opposition from Roman Catholic or
pro-American circles.
30 July 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
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