CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/02/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161988
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: February 2, 1957

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Approved for Release: 2019/12/04 C03161988
TO SECRET P
CURRENT
/ INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
0/4/4
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
2 February 1957
Copy No. 131
DOCUMENT NO. ....,-.:1
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. ?; .11
I 1 DECLASSIRED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
�'ikluATA -eREVIEWER,
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
V/7/7/107/7//7
/e
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Aseu 40.
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CONTENTS
. FAILURE OF NEHRU AND CEIOU EN-LAI TO ISSUE COM-
MUNIQUE SUGGESTS SINO-INDIAN DISAGREEMENT
(page 3).
2. INDIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES RESUME SHARP
DECLINE (page 4).
3. ALL-OUT EFFORT BY CUBAN GOVERNMENT TO OVER-
COME INSURRECTIONISTS REPORTED IMMINENT
(page 5).
4. LOCAL MASJUMI LEADERS ARRESTED IN INDONESIA
(page 6).
�5. BRITAIN FEARS JORDAN MAY EXACT HEAVY PRICE FOR
TERMINATION OF TREATY (page 7).
k\i 6. INDIA DECIDES AGAINST PURCHASE OF SOVIET CIVIL
AIRCRAFT (page 8).
. HANOI DIFFERS WITH USSR ON VIETNAMESE UN SEATS
(page 9).
2 Feb 57
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1. FAILURE OF NEHRU AND CHOU EN-LAI TO ISSUE COM-
MUNIQUE SUGGESTS SINO-INDIAN DISAGREEMENT
Comment on:
The failure of Nehru and Chou En-lai to
issue a joint communiqu�efore Chou
left India for Ceylon on 31 January sug-
gests that disagreement on world prob-
lems exists between the two leaders. In all of the nine other
countries he has already visited on his current tour, Chou
and his hosts issued communiqu� Thirincr Chou's many talks
with Nehru which began in November
The two leaders reportedly disagreed in
their November and December talks on Chou's insistence that
American policy in the Far East continued to be warlike and
that Soviet intervention in Hungary was justified. Nehru's ap-
parently favorable reaction to his visit to the United States in
mid-December may have contributed to a reluctance to asso-
ciate himself with Chou in a pronouncement on world affairs
at this time.
2 Feb 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
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2. INDIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES RESUME
SHARP DECLINE
ndian foreign exchange reserves de-
clined by $27,200,000 during the week
ending 25 January, according to the
figures of the Reserve Bank of India.
ese reserves now stand at only $1,072,000,000.
Comment Although Indian foreign exchange re-
serves fell by nearly $440,000,000 from
1 April through 30 November, they had appeared to be par-
tially stabilized by the recent measures taken by the Indian
government to curb imports. They fell by only $19,000,000
during the next six weeks, but during the past two weeks
they have fallen by an additional $36,000,000, and now stand
below what is considered to be the minimum safe level re-
quired for currency backing and for working capital for for-
eign trade.
Although India has approached the Inter-
national Monetary Fund for $200,000,000 in assistance, the
IMF has not yet agreed to grant the full amount. The gov-
ernment may therefore be forced to reduce the foreign ex-
change held as backing for the currency, or reduce the scope
of the Second Five-Year Plan. Since the Congress Party
has made its management of the economy and plans for fu-
ture economic expansion the key elements in its election
campaign, such actions would reduce its chances of winning
a workable majority.
2 Feb 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4
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3. ALL-OUT EFFORT BY CUBAN GOVERNMENT TO OVER-
COME INSURRECTIONISTS REPORTED IMMINENT
kbout 2,000 Cuban military are now
oncentrated in and around the south-
astern city of Santiago in Oriente
3rovince for an all-out drive against
nsurrectionists in the Sierra Maestra
Jountains according to a reliable
The rebel force, Jssibly number-
ing 300, includes remnants of the group belonging to the
"26 of July" movement of Fidel Castro which landed on
2 December 1956 and a considerable number of residents
of the Santiago area who have joined the group.
New clashes between the revolutionaries
and the military in Oriente were reported in mid-January,
and information received by the American em-
bassy in Havana indicated that the "26 o July" movement
has been planning a series of new disturbances throughout
the island.
The government's inability to put an end
to a wave of terrorist acts which have occurred since the
30 November 1956 revolutionary outbreak in Santiago and
its use of strong repressive measures have caused public
unrest to increase.
While the bulk of the armed forces has
been considered loyal, in the past year there have been re-
ports of dissatisfaction and possibly plotting, particularly
within the army, a key factor in the situation. Over 100
members of the armed forces have been arrested for refusal
to fight the rebel forces, according to a Cuban government
official.
2 Feb 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
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4. LOCAL MASJUMI LEADERS ARRESTED IN INDONESIA
Seventeen local Masjumi leaders in a
West Java city were arrested on 29 Janu-
ary, according to a Masjumi spokesman.
Party leaders fear that further arrests
will be made e interest of depriving the Masjumi of
local leadership and intimidating its supporters. The Amer-
ican embassy comments that all political groups expect a
political showdown soon, possibly accompanied by demon-
strations or violence.
Comment The arrest of these Masjumi leaders,
and of 30 other persons in Djakarta, at
a time when the government is hard pressed by a series of
political and military crises may be the beginning of a cam-
paign to suppress critics of the Ali regime by force.
2 Feb 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6
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5. BRITAIN FEARS JORDAN MAY EXACT HEAVY PRICE
FOR TERMINATION OF TREATY
Comment on:
The British expect that in negotiations
on termination of the Anglo-Jordanian
treaty of 1947 beginning at Amman on
4 February, considerable equipment
and installations will have to be handed over in the hope
of forestalling a demand for everything the British have ac-
cumulated in Jordan. The Foreign Office told the American
embassy in London that British stocks in Jordan are con-
siderable, including large quantities of materiel removed
from the Suez base two years ago, and referred to certain
stores and equipment worth $19,500,000 as among the prob-
able objects of Jordanian demands.
The British want to retrieve the bulk of
their materiel in Jordan, and at the same time, according
to the Foreign Office, retain Jordan's good will. London
doubts, however, that treaty provisions obligating Jordan
to purchase the British installations at a fair valuation are
likely to be honored, especially since Jordan's allies, Egypt,
Syria, and Saudi Arabia, are unlikely to furnish money for
such a purpose. The British want the negotiations conducted
entirely by their ambassador at Amman in order to avoid
calling too much attention to the talks.
2 Feb 57
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6. INDIA DECIDES AGAINST PURCHASE OF SOVIET
CIVIL AIRCRAFT
India has decided not to purchase civil
aircraft from the USSR, according to
the Indian director general of civil avia-
tion. He says that the proposal has been
discussed with two groups of Soviet ex-
uring recent months, but that New Delhi has decided
the parts and repair difficulties would make the use of Soviet
aircraft uneconomic.
Comment
The USSR has been trying to break into
the Indian aircraft market, which is ex-
pected to become lucrative in the future. The Indian govern-
ment plans to expand its airlines and replace most of its planes
during the next few years. India is hesitant to purchase Soviet
civil aircraft because of reluctance to diversify further the
types of aircraft it operates.
The USSR has also offered to supply IL-28
jet light bombers at about half the cost of the British Canber-
ras that India has been planning to purchase. A contract for
Canberras has been ready for signature for several months,
but there have been recent reports thtindia is renrisidering
the purchase of Soviet jet bombers.
2 Feb 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
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7. HANOI DIFFERS WITH USSR ON VIETNAMESE UN SEATS
Comment on:
Hanoi has differed with the USSR in
connection with the Soviet Union's pro-
posal, defeated in a General Assembly
committee on 30 January, to admit both
North and South Vietnam to the UN simul-
taneously�
one day after the proposal,
Viet Minh premier Pham Van Dong, al-
though he directed his protest at the US
resolution for unilateral admission of South Vietnam, de-
clared that neither zone should be considered for member-
ship separately, only a unified Vietnam.
any proposals for simultaneous admission of North and South
Vietnam would be "contradictory to the principles to which
both the North and the South are committed!'
South Vietnam's acting foreign secretary
told the US ambassador that he considered the Soviet proposal
gratifying in that it would create psychological difficulties for
the Viet Minh.
2 Feb 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
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