CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/10/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03153733
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: October 19, 1957

Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03153733
� CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
//
/
19 October 1957
Copy No.
138 3.3(h)(2)
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CONTENTS
CONTENTS
1. SOVIET CENTRAL COMMITTEE MAY BE IN SESSION
(page 3).
2, RENEWED ACTIVITY AT YURA TAM MISSILE TEST
RANGE I I (Daze 5).
3. KHRU HCHEV REP RTE
Dr/nDrIqP 7DLE EAST SETTLEMENT
(page 6).
4. USSR BROADENS SECRET POLICE ORGANIZATION
(page 7).
5. SOVIET UNION MOVES TO REVIVE TALKS WITH WEST
GERMANY (page 8).
6, USSR INVITES ARAB OFFICIALS TO 40TH ANNIVERSARY
CELEBRATIONS (page 9).
7. ISRAELI-SYRIAN BORDER TENSIONS
8. POLITICAL PROBLEMS IN JORDAN
9. FRENCH POLITICAL CRISIS
(page 10).
(page 11).
(page 12).
10. BRITISH DECLARE FULL ALERT ON CYPRUS
(page 13).
11. DISTURBANCES LIKELY OVER 20 OCTOBER ELECTION
IN GUATEMALA (page 14).
o_ja 12. RESIGNATION OF FINNISH GOVERNMENT
(page 15).
13. CHINESE NATIONALISTS TO SELECT SUCCESSOR TO
CHIANG KAI-SHEK AS PARTY CHIEF (page 16).
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1. SOVIET CENTRAL COMMITTEE MAY BE IN SESSION
A Soviet central committee plenum
may be going on in Moscow. Rumors to this effect have
been circulating in the diplomatic colony, and there ap-
pears to be a sudden increase in official automobile traf-
fic in the vicinity of the Kremlin. The CBS correspondent
in Moscow in his 16 October broadcast indicated that the
censors had cut 19 words from his text relating to a forth-
coming plenum. Two full members of the party presidium,
Zhukov and Aristov, however, are currently on tour outside
the Soviet Union,
The Soviet leaders may have called a
plenum at this time to assess the effects of their recent
technological, scientific, and military achievements on the
USSR's over-all position vis-a-vis the West and to outline
ways and means for further exploiting the psychological gains
already scored by the ICBM and the earth satellite. High on
the list of urgent matters for committee consideration would
be the Middle East crisis.
In the domestic field there may be dis-
agreement over economic policy, possibly connected with
the 1958 plan, which needs to be ironed out at a plenum.
There have been several reports that such disagreement ex-
ists. Disagreement may also have arisen over the policy
statement to be issued in connection with the 40th anniversary
celebration on 7 November.
Khrushchev may have convened a plenum
in order to have it call a party congress at which a new cen-
tral committee would be elected. He might wish to call such
a congress soon while his prestige and influence are high
rather than wait until the next congress which would normally
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have been held in 1960. Through his influence he would prob-
ably be able to prevent the election to the central committee of
anyone whose support had been anything less than enthusiastic.
Ousters or demotions of important leaders
may be approved at the plenum but would probably be kept se-
cret until after the anniversary celebration.
Any early announcement of such changes
would probably reflect an overriding need to silence opposi-
tion.
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2. RENEWED ACTIVITY AT TYURA TAM MISSILE
TEST RANGE
the Tyura Tam missile
test range on 17 October indicated
that some type of operational activ-
ity was intended to culminate at approximately 1300 GMT
(0900 EDT) on 18 October. This information suggests a
firing of an ICBM or earth satellite vehicle, but does not
unequivically indicate that an actual firing took place
The Guided Missiles Intelligence Committee
believes the scheduled activity could be only a practice
exercise within the rangehead and that there is no more than
an even chance that a launching was attempted on 18 October.
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KHRUSHCHEV REPORTEDLY PROMPTS BE VAN TO
PROPOSE MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT
As a result of "prompting" by Soviet
party chief Khrushchev during their mid-
September talks, British Labor party
treasurer Aneurin Bevan will propose
during his Washington visit an immediate embargo on arms
shipments to the Middle East and settlement of the situation
by a "three-power agreement among the USSR, the United
States, and Great Britain,"
Bevan�Labor's official spokesman on
foreign affairs--leaves London on 26 October for a three-
week visit to the United States, and has already informed
the British embassy that he wishes to talk with Secretary
Dulles and if possible with President Eisenhower. Inasmuch
as party leader Gaitskell recently told the American embassy
in London that he and Bevan agree on the Middle Eastern ques-
tion, the reported proposal presumably has Gaitskell's support.
In a letter to the Western big three last
February, the Soviet government proposed a four-power pack-
age declaration, including an arms embargo, which would fore-
swear interference in the Middle East. At that time the Soviet
Union assured the Arab states that its proposal was on an all- /
or-nothing basis and that the West would not accept.
The interview underscores current Soviet
efforts to create close working relationships with the Western
European Socialists. Recent Soviet letters to the Socialist par-
ties of eight West European NATO countries have sought to es-
tablish grounds for cooperation by arguing that Soviet and So-
cialist views on many subjects are similar.
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4. USSR BROADENS SECRET POLICE ORGANIZATION
Comment on:
The Soviet secret police organization,
which the Soviet leaders decentralized
after the purge of Lavrentiy Beriya in
1953, now is regaining some of its for-
mer strength.
Soviet border troops were
transferred earlier this year from the Internal Affairs Min-
istry (MVD) to the Committee of State Security (KGB), which
administers the secret police. Internal security troops may
also have been transferred at the same time. This would
again unify all security functions, including secret political
police activity, foreign intelligence, and domestic and mil-
itary counterintelligence, as well as command of the border
and internal security troops. The combined strength of
these troops is currently estimated at 400,000 men, of whom
150,000 are border guards. Nevertheless, the KGB does not
yet enjoy the tremendous power of Beriya's MVD empire,
which included control of local law enforcement agencies and
the huge economic empire based on forced labor.
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5. SOVIET UNION MOVES TO REVIVE TALKS WITH
WEST GERMANY
Reference:
Moscow
has offered to discuss the German repatri-
ation question on a "case-by-case" basis.
This offer seems designed to keep West
German-Soviet bloc ties from deteriorating and to stimulate
the Bonn-Moscow trade talks. the West
German negotiating mission in Moscow describes the con-
cessions as "very small," but feels that West Germany has
little alternative but to reopen the negotiations.
the Soviet view that there are no longer
any Germans in the Soviet Union eligible for repatriation.
Repatriation and trade talks,which were
begun in July 1957, have been interrupted on several occa-
sions as a result of Soviet unwillingness to discuss Bonn's
claim of 80,000 potential repatriates. Bonn's insistence on
a repatriation settlement in return for a trade and payments
agreement remains unchanged, but the West German negotia-
tors almost certainly would settle for a smaller number of
repatriates than claimed by Bonn. Since the 15 September
election, the negotiations hold relatively little interest for
the West German government. Adenauer is under pressure
from certain elements among West German industrialists to
increase trade with the USSR.
However, he is making use of the repatri-
ation issue to avoid having to conclude a long-term trade agree-
ment.
The Soviet Union apparently continues to
be concerned that repatriation discussions with Bonn would harm
the East German regime's prestige. The East German ambas-
sador to Moscow was reportedly promised in late July that he
would be "consulted" on all repatriation matters which might in-
volve the interests of the East German regime. Moscow is cur-
rently rumored to be considering a repatriation accord with
East Germany.
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I vu IJCAAFIG
6. USSR INVITES ARAB OFFICIALS TO 40TH
ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS
Comment on:
The USSR has extended invitations to
Saudi, Egyptian, and other Arab govern-
ment officials to visit Moscow on the
40th anniversary of the Bolshevik rev-
olution
I The USSR has not made it a
practice to invite non-Communist governments to send rep-
resentatives to these celebrations but evidently intends to
use this year's celebrations to draw Afro-Asian countries
as well as Western Socialists closer to the bloc in an en-
larged "zone of peace."
Soviet Ambassador to Egypt Kiselev
delivered the invitation to the Saudi ambassador in Cairo
for "some men from the Saudi Ministry of Education."
Kiselev said that similar invitations had been issued to the
other Arab nations and that Egypt would send a delegation.
In addressing the invitation to minor
Saudi officials, Moscow probably believes the chances of
its being accepted are more favorable. Two minor Saudi
officials recently attended a Soviet agricultural exhibit at
the invitation of Moscow after King Saud had turned down a
Soviet su estion that the minister of agriculture attend.
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7. ISRAELI-SYRIAN BORDER TENSIONS
Comment on:
The Israeli Foreign Ministry appears
to be playing down the arrival of Egyp-
tian troops in Syria and reports that the
Egyptians may take up positions on the
Israeli front. The ministry has put off
press queries with a statement that it is
awaiting discussion of the question with
other governments "equally concerned
with events in Syria and Egypt."
The situation along the northeast sector
of the Israeli-Syrian border remains tense as a result of
Israeli efforts to survey a frontier line where Israeli and
Syrian maps disagree. At the request of the UN officer
chairing the Mixed Armistice Commission, the surveying
has been postponed until 20 October.
Despite earlier warnings, Syria has not
contested Israeli work to complete the Lake Hula drainage
project. The deepening of the Jordan River south of the lake
was completed by 15 October, but a two-week delay in actual
drainage of the lake is expected because of remaining dike
construction, and the actual drainage operation will probably
take place about 30 October.
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8. POLITICAL PROBLEMS IN JORDAN
Comment on:
Opposition elements in Jordan appear
to have begun a new campaign to dem-
onstrate the unpopularity of the pro-
Western cabinet. Six members of the
radical National Socialist party have
resigned from parliament, leaving only
27 out of 40 members present in the
lower house. Six others are in exile
and one is under arrest. Further resig-
nations, possibly by members of the
ultranationalist Moslem Brotherhood,
may be in the offing.
The gesture of resignation probably was
adopted to provide a dramatic counter to the cabinet's success
this week in using intensive pressure to obtain a vote of con-
fidence.
King Hussayn's government has become
Increasingly preoccupied with internal security measures, but
has failed thus far to prevent smuggling of arms and explosives
and the movement of subversive personnel into Jordan from
Syria. Severe penalties were imposed last week for the un-
authorized possession of arms and explosives, and a vehicle
curfew has been ordered in some parts of North Jordan near
the Syrian border.
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9. FRENCH POLITICAL CRISIS
Comment on:
President Coty had reportedly already
decided before Pinay was rejected by
the National Assembly to call together
the leaders of the Socialists, Popular
Republicans, and Independents, to try to get them to agree
on a premier candidate they would support. Coty report-
edly refuses to designate another candidate until the three
major nonextremist groups accept a solution to the three-
week-old crisis.
The American embassy in Paris com-
ments that a Popular Republican candidate is most likely
to be named in view of intensified Socialist-Independent hos-
tility and the splintering among the small center parties.
The embassy notes increasing signs among the Socialists
that they realize they cannot insist on their own program and
team to the exclusion of any other, and Socialist leader Mol-
let is rumored to be pushing his party to enter a government
headed by a Popular Republican.
Ex-premier Robert Schuman and party
leader Pierre Pflimlin are likely Popular Republican choices
though the Socialist rank and file is hostile to Pflimlin, and
Schuman, who is 71, may be regarded as too old. A govern-
ment of the center with support from both right and left would
probably be more stable than the conservative coalition Pinay
had proposed. The Popular Republicans have not participated
in either of the two cabinets which have governed since this
assembly was elected in January 1956.
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10. BRITISH DECLARE FULL ALERT ON CYPRUS
Comment on:
The declaration of a "full antisabotage
alert" on Cyprus on 18 October indicates
that the local British authorities fear a
full-scale campaign of violence by the
Greek Cypriot underground organization EOKA may be im-
minent. Declaration of the alert followed the bombing of
the government-controlled broadcasting station transmitter
and two transformers at the RAF base near Nicosia on 17
�October.
The bombings are the first acts of vio-
lence conducted against government installations since inaugu-
ration of the recent seven-month truce. They follow by three
days the killing of a Greek Cypriot "traitor" known to have been
on an EOKA execution list. British authorities have previously
stated that the Cypriot underground, reorganized and re-equipped
since last March, could inflict heavy damage during the initial
phase of a renewed campaign of terrorism.
Resumption of terrorism would embarrass
Archbishop Makarios during his visit to the United States, al-
though he probably would be unwilling to denounce terrorism
if the UN debate on Cyprus in November appears negative.
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11. DISTURBANCES LIKELY OVER 20 OCTOBER ELECTION
IN GUATEMALA
Comment on:
Serious disturbances may erupt in
Guatemala as a result of widespread
popular feeling that the 20 October
presidential election will be rigged.
e a. minis ra ion political machine probably is prepared
to resort to fraud if necessary to assure the victory of its
candidate, Miguel Ortiz Passarelli.
Strong protests, possibly leading to
serious disturbances, can be expected from rightist sup-
porters of the leading opposition candidate, General Miguel
Ydigoras Fuentes, who is showing wide popular support.
Leftists, bitter after the official banning of their Revolution-
ary party, will probably support and encourage efforts by
Ydigoras' followers to resist electoral defeat. Leftist lead-
ers reportedly plan a campaign of sabotage and terrorism at
voting places on election day.
The 9,000-man Guatemalan army will be
able to control the situation if it remains united under the
leadership of Defense Minister Juan F. Oliva. There are,
however, some cracks in Oliva's army support, His half-
brother, intelligence chief Enrique T. Oliva, is opposed to
Ortiz' candidacy. The chief of the air force has displayed
an equivocal attitude in conversations with embassy officers.
Certain key officers reportedly favor Ydigoras.
In any event, widespread and sustained
popular resistance to the election outcome might well influ-
ence the army to seize direct control of the government.
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12. RESIGNATION OF FINNISH GOVERNMENT
Comment on:
Finland's continuing political instability
was emphasized by the resignation on
18 October of the Agrarian-Liberal gov-
ernment, following its narrow defeat on
a no-confidence motion introduced by the Communist-front
Finnish People's Democratic League (SKDL) and supported
by a large faction of the Social Democratic party. The cab-
inet resignation, the third within the past six months, de-
rived partly from disagreement over measures to deal with
Finland's growing inflation, and partly from purely factional
rivalries. Restoration of political stability depends mainly
on the Social Democrats' re-establishing party unity and com-
ing to an understanding with the second largest party, the
Agrarians.
In the immediate situation, President
Kekkonen may ask Premier Sukselainen to remain in office
with minor adjustments in his cabinet. New elections, if
held now while the Social Democrats are split, would give
the SKDL a good chance of increasing its parliamentary rep-
resentatiowhichatpresen consists of 43 deputies out of
200.
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13. CHINESE NATIONALISTS TO SELECT SUCCESSOR TO
CHIANG KAI-SHEK AS PARTY CHIEF
Comment on:
The Chinese Nationalist Kuomintang
congress now meeting in Taipei has
established a new post, that of deputy
director general of the party, at the
request of Chiang Kai-shek. It is ex-
pected that Chiang Kai-shek will name
Vice President Chen Cheng to the post.
Chiang's motive in naming the one who
will succeed him as both president and
leader of the party appears to be to prevent a struggle for
power when he dies or decides to step down from his post
as director general of the Kuomintang, which he has held
since 1938.
Chen's appointment could be interpreted
as a blow to his chief rival,. Chiang Ching-kuo, the chief of
the Nationalist security forces and elder son of Chiang Kai-
shek. Many observers believe, however, that young Chiang,
who reportedly has been gaining influence recently, would
not attempt to contest the succession of Chen Cheng. He
would continue his efforts to place his supporters in dominant
positions and to control the country from behind the scenes
before making a bid for power.
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CORRECTION TO ITEM 4, PAGE 6, OF CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DATED 17 OCTOBER 1957:
The last paragraph should read as follows:
in
anticipation of the inspection to be made a week later by
Soviet Defense Minister Zhukov and his entourage of Yugo-
slav army maneuvers in Slovenia."
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