CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/12/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03192689
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: December 5, 1957

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CURRENT
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BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.
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5 December
1957
Copy No. t3s
ADuATTEH 0 .:t .430
,y_ REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOPS.. RET
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0010 Aiwik
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CONTENTS
1. BRITAIN'S TROOP REDUCTION THREAT
(page 3).
2. FRENCH NUCLEAR TEST MAY BE IMMINENT
(page 4).
3. NEW COMMUN
ESTABLISHED
ICAL JOURNAL TO BE
(page 5).
4., EAST GERMAN INTERPRETATION OF MOSCOW CON-
FERENCE (page 6)0
5. JAPAN AND USSR TO SIGN TRADE PACT
(page 7).
6. EARLY DISSOLUTION OF JAPANESE DIET EXPECTED
page 8).
7. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
(page 9). tc.,
8. INDONESIAN DISSIDENT LEADERS TO CONCENTRATE
ON ECONOMIC AUTONOMY (page 10)0
9. SOVIET OIL OFFER TO IRAN REPORTED
(page 11).
10. NEW EGYPTIAN RED SEA BASE INCREASES POSSIBILITY
OF SERIOUS ARAB-ISRAELI CLASHES
(page 12).
11. BRAZIL CONCERNED OVER COMMUNIST BLOC OFFENSIVE
(page 14).
5 Dec 57
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1. BRITAIN'S TROOP REDUCTION THREAT
Comment on;
Britain's statements in the WEU and
NATO councils on 3 December appear
designed to play on Continental con-
cern that Britain may withdraw all its
troops from Europe. London presumably
hopes to bring pressure to bear on West
Germany to continue payments to defray
local costs of British troops in Germany.
Britain formally stated that it intends to
retain a 55,000-man force if acceptable financial arrange-
ments can be made; if not, the "whole question of the num-
ber of troops" will have to be reconsidered. In response to
a Dutch question, the British WEU representative stated that
this reconsideration would apply not just to the 5,000-man
strategic reserve contingent, but to the full number of troops.
In invoking special WEU and NATO provisions concerning fi-
nancial distress connected with stationing forces in member
countries, Britain asked for a decision on financial arrange-
ments by mid-January 1958 for budget planning purposes.
This British approach will probably mar
the 16-18 December NATO meetings. Continental suspicions
that London plans to play an independent role have been fed in
the past year by difficulties over Britain's proposed European
free trade area and by London's initial troop reduction plans
outlined last March. Indirectly these doubts contribute to
anxiety over the continuation of the American military commit-
ment in Europe--a concern shared by Britain.
5 Dec 57
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20 FRENCH NUCLEAR TEST MAY BE IMMINENT
Comment on:
The president of the French National
Assembly Foreign Affairs Committee,
Maurice Schumann, commenting on
2 December on a recent newspaper re-
port that France has already tested a nuclear weapon in the
Sahara, stated he did not know "definitely" whether the re-
port is true but in any case is certain that "it soon will be."
Schumann added that "equality of rights" among the NATO
allies requires a nuclear capability for Europe as well as
the United States and Britain. He predicted "intolerable
strains" in the alliance otherwise.
Schumann's demand for a European nu-
clear capability is the strongest in a series of official
French efforts to impress the United States with France's
unwillingness to be excluded from making nuclear weapons.
no evictence ot a nuclear
the Sahara. It has been estimated that France can conduct
its first test of a nominal yield nuclear device in North Africa
during 1958. French officials recently stated that work is un-
der way on manufacture of a nucleaf weapon.' Sufficient
French plutonium is currently available for the production
of two or three nominal, yield weapons.
5 Dec 57
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3. NEW COMMUNIST THEORETICAL JOURNAL
TO BE ESTABLISHED
Comment on:
A decision to establish a new theoret-
ical journal of the international Com-
munist movement was made at the
recent high-level Communist meeting
in Moscow, according to a speech by
Friedrich Ebert, an East German politburo member and
mayor of East Berlin, to a conference of the East German
SED (Communist) party. Ebert's remarks that this was
one of a number of suggestions for "systematic close co-
operation" among Communist parties suggest, that the ,
East Germans and possibly other bloc parties had pressed
for more far-reaching measures, such as the creation of a
new international Communist organization.
Prior to the meeting, numerous reports
pointed to the possibility that some type of international
Communist organization would be revived and that a theo-
retical journal would be re-established as means of co-
ordinating the views of the Communist parties throughout
the world. Instead of a new organization, the 12-nation
Communist policy declaration of 21 November stated that
"in present conditions it is expedient" to hold bilateral and
multilateral conferences as a means of coordinating views and
policies.
There are indications of disagreement
over the new publication which may be one reason why the
12-nation declaration contained no mention of a journal.
the
Polish party is not expected to participate in the work of the
new journal. the Yugoslays have refused
and that the Italian Communists are reluctant to take part.
This accords with ieports of the positions of these parties prior
to the conference.
5 Dec 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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4. EAST GERMAN INTERPRETATION OF
MOSCOW CONFERENCE
Comment on:
Top East German Communists
said
the Moscow conference left them with the
impression that the Soviet Union is now the
strongest force in the world, that Gomulka capitulated to Khru-
shchevis demands and is now "back in the socialistic fold," and
that, next to Mao, Ulbricht is today the most important inter-
national Communist leader.
The SED functionaries also had the
impression that, as a result of Mao's demands, the Chinese
Communist and Soviet general staffs met following the celebra-
tion and agreed on military help for China and mutual assist-
ance measures in case either country is attacked.
SED politburo member Hermann Matern said
that the peace manifesto would provide the basis for a great cam-
paign in East Germany which would require every citizen to take
a stand for the Soviet peace policy or be treated as "a traitor to
the fatherland" He said that this campaign would be carried out
more vigorously than similar operations in the past and that all
leading SED functionaries would be required to "hit the road and
spread the word"
5 Dec 57
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5. JAPAN AND USSR TO SIGN TRADE PACT
Comment on:
Japanese and Soviet trade officials, after
three months of negotiations which resulted
in compromises on both sides, on 6 Decem-
ber are to sign the first postwar trade and
payments agreement between their countries. The agreement,
of one year's duration but renewable annually, anticipates trade
of approximately $30,000,000 each way, which is about ten times
Soviet-Japanese trade in 1956. Although trade has been expand-
ing during the past year, the goal may not be reached within the
first year of the agreement.
Included in the over-all arrangements are a
commercial treaty which lists items to be traded, an agreement
to exchange trade missions with limited diplomatic privileges,
and a most-favored-nation clause. Trade accounts are to be set-
tled in pounds sterling,although the Japanese acceded to a Soviet
request that individual barter transactions be permitted.
The Soviet n6gotiators showed particular in-
terest in Japanese heavy industrial products, which are featured
in the proposed trade list, but Moscow has consented to respect
Japan's adherence to COCOM regulations. The USSR will prob-
ably try to implement fully its side of the agreements in order to
bolster its claim that an eventual $500,000,000 trade turnover can
be achieved.
5 Dec 57
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6. EARLY DISSOLUTION OF JAPANESE DIET EXPECTED
Comment on:
Foreign Minister Fujiyama and other
informed political observers have told
Ambassador MacArthur that Prime Min-
ister Kishi may soon dissolve the lower
house, of the Diet and call an election. Campaigning already
under way by some Socialist and conservative Diet members
appears to support Fujiya.ma's forecast. MacArthur believes
that Kishi might order the dissolution when the Diet convenes
on 20 December or when it resumes business in late January
after the holiday recess.
Kishits apparent success in reaching a
reparations agreement with Indonesia during his recent
visit to Djakarta may increase his prestige and incline him
toward an early election. Kishi may also be influenced by
pressure within the conservative party to call an election to
curb the rising power of Ichiro Kono, the strong man of the
Hatoyama cabinet.
5 Dec 57
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7. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
Comment on:
There is a growing consensus in
Djakarta that President Sukarno's
reaction to the attempt on his life
will be retaliation against those
political forces opposing his pol-
icies. It thus appears that major
effects of the assassination attempt
will be a closer association between
Sukarno and the leftists and a harden-
ing of regional opposition, unless it
can be proved to him that,
the Indonesian Com-
munist party was involved in the attack. Indonesian Com-
munist tactics, however, have been to exploit troubled situa-
tions rather than create them.
In the wake of the assassination attempt,
the Communist labor unions have seized the opportunity to ex-
propriate Dutch businesses in the name of the government.
They are now offering to turn them over to the government
in exchange for a voice in their management. The Commu-
nists apparently made their move just prior to similar ac-
tion planned by the government.
the Indonesian army chief of staff instructed all territorial
commanders throughout Indonesia to cooperate fully in car-
rying out the "West Irian Action Committee's" plan to confis-
cate all Dutch businesses.
5 Dec 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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8. INDONESIAN DISSIDENT LEADERS TO CONCENTRATE
ON ECONOMIC AUTONOMY
Comment on:
Disaffected Indonesian regional leaders
view the current national reconstruction
conference in Djakarta as of little value
and will return to their provinces deter-
mined to concentrate their efforts on lo-
cal reconstruction and economic develop-
ment,
They are temporarily dropping their ef-
forts to effect changes in the Djakarta government and in
Sukarno's policies, and to bring former Vice President Hatta
back to an official position. The commander of South Sumatra,
Lt. Col. Barlian, allegedly foresees an initial reconstruction
period lasting until 1959 and believes time is on the side of the
dissidents.
Regional concentration on economic auton-
omy would worsen the central government's economic position,
already threatened by a rupture of economic relations with the
Dutch. There is, therefore, a growing danger that Djakarta
will turn increasingly to the bloc for assistance, a move that
would aggravate the regions' general dissatisfaction. A recent
report states that the Indonesian government has approached
the USSR on the possibility of purchasing rice.
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9. SOVIET OIL OFFER TO IRAN REPORTED
Comment on:
Soviet Ambassador Pegov in a
interview
stated that the USSR is
preparea to sign an oil agreement which
would give Iran more than 75 percent of the profits and as-
sure it a Soviet market, according to another Iranian journ-
alist. Pegov's statements, if published, would stimulate the
aspirations of all Middle East oil-producing countries for a
larger share of oil profits than they now receive, and strength-
en Moscow's propaganda campaign against Western oil interests.
The USSR has made a number of infor-
mal offers of large-scale economic assistance which the Iran-
ian government has turned aside. Iranian officials have
claimed that new Soviet economic proposals are received
"every day." Pegov's remarks may have been intended to in-
duce Iran to accept some of these offers. Negotiations are at
present under way in Tehran for conclusion of a civil air agree-
ment, and a Soviet survey team is scheduled to arrive in Tehran
soon to implement the preliminary agreement concluded on
joint development of border rivers.
5 Dec 57
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10, NEW EGYPTIAN RED SEA BASE INCREASES POSSIBILITY
OF SERIOUS ARAB-ISRAELI CLASHES
Comment on:
Recent Arab military measures have
placed an increased strategic empha-
sis on the upper Red Sea area and cor-
respondingly increased the possibility
of serious Arab-Israeli clashes. While Saudi Arabia has
strengthened its Aqaba positions, the most significant
moves have been undertaken by Egypt and directed toward
development of military bases along the western, shore of
the entrance to the Gulf Of Suez, within operating distance
of the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba.
The most impor-
tant new Egyptian
move has been the de-
velopment of a mili-
tary base at Ghardaqa
at the entrance to the
Gulf of Suez.
two national guard
battalions have been
detailed to guard the
"air base" near
Ghardaqa, indicate
that a civil airfield
there has been con-
verted into a mili-
tary airfield of some
importance. This
base would permit
Egypt for the first
time to conduct effec-
tive air operations
over the lower Gulf
of Aqaba and to sup-
port ground forces
which might again
be deployed at the en:-
trance to the gulf.
Port Said
PENINSULA
2,5 5.0 7,5
MILES
4 DECEMBER 1957
0E1 Tor
Nabei,
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9gharm El Sheikh
Ghardaqa
Quseir
5 Dec 57 Current Intelligence
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Facilities have also been developed at
Ghardaqa to support light naval forces--particularly motor
torpedo boats, whose limited operating radius requires a
base close to the area of operations. Earlier this year, the
Egyptians moved 200 naval mines to Ras Gharib, suggest-
ing a plan to close the Gulf of Suez in the event of hostilities.
Activation of the naval facilities at Ghardaqa may have oc-
curred on 2 December when.
At present, a small UNEF detachment is
deployed on the Egyptian side of the Gull of Aqaba. Although
Egypt's immediate interests would appear to be best served
by continuation of the protective UNEF screen in Sinai, there
are unconfirmed reports that Nasir plans to request with-
drawal of the UN force later this month.
5 Dec 57
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11. BRAZIL CONCERNED OVER COMMUNIST
BLOC OFFENSIVE
Comment on:
A high-ranking official in the Brazilian
Foreign Ministry has asked US assist-
ance in assessing the implications of the
Soviet bloc's new economic and diplomatic
offensive in Brazil. He said he hopes to
convince President Kubitschek that the bloc's objectives are
basically subversive, but he fears the government will be un-
der increasing pressure to accept economic development of-
fers at face value.
Several bloc countries have offered to help
alleviate Brazil's foreign exchange crisis and to participate in
its five-year development program by accepting coffee and
other surplus products in exchange for heavy equipment and
complete industrial installations. While Brazilian officials
are undoubtedly tempted by some of these offers, they are
also aware that the bloc would probably try to resell some of
these commodities in Brazil's regular European markets, and
they probably fear that there would be delivery problems on
installations as extensive as those being offered.
There is some evidence that Brazil is util-
izing these offers to solicit increased US interest in its eco-
nomic problems. Brazil has been agitating for increased de-
velopmental credits from the US and may soon request financ-
ing for its rising trade and payments deficit.
The bloc offensive--together with the psy-
chological impact of Soviet scientific achieyements--has al-
ready subjected the politically weak Kubitschek government
to heavy pressure from powerful nationalist groups in congress
and has substantially aided the Communist party in its cam-
paign to regain legal status and respectability.
5 Dec 57
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