CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/08/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179856
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: August 17, 1957

r�'/"//0).'
/1#
-.Approved for Release: 2019/12/10
J. L-I A ...W.
191PM
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
ciP
17 August 1957
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
Copy No. 1 6
17.:-.7.:=7=N7 NO.
ts.:1-12;.1.I.SEViEW DA _
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States
or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri-
ment of the United States.
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Amk
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
-
CONTENTS
61--t 1. FRENCH FEAR DELAY IN REACHING AGREED POSITION
WEAKENS WEST IN ARMS TALKS (page 3).
b--L 2. LONG-RANGE PLANS LACKING FOR PACIFICATION
OF OMAN (page 4).
)L0 3. SOVIET GRAIN PROBLEM TERMED "ACUTE"
(page 5).
4. SUKARNO REPORTED CONTEMPLATING MAJOR CHANGES
IN JAVA ARMY COMMAND (page 6).
5. PEIPING MOVES AGAINST NEW TROUBLE IN TIBET
BORDER REGION (page 7).
17 Aug 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
oak .MAJ(k, I
1. FRENCH FEAR DELAY IN REACHING AGREED POSITION
WEAKENS WEST IN ARMS TALKS
Reference:
A high-ranking French Foreign Ministry
official expressed apprehension on 14
August that time was running out in the
London disarmament talks because of the
delay in presenting a complete agreed
Western position. He said a member of
the French disarmament delegation re-
ceived the impression during a 13 August
meeting with Zorin that the Soviet delegate might be preparing
to pull out and throw the disarmament discussion into the UN
General Assembly.
The French official fears that the report
of the Disarmament Subcommittee will reach the General As-
sembly reflecting the simple, reasonable-sounding Soviet pro-
posals not refuted by any agreed Western position. Paris thinks
that if such agreement cannot be obtained quicklyIthe Western
delegations should put together a generalized resume of their
main positions which would not touch on details still at issue
among them.
The official did not indicate any belief
that US reservations stemmed from West German pressure--
an accusation which Jules Moch has twice repeated to the
American delegate. Soviet delegate Zorin's 13 August state-
ment that West Germany has a "veto" over all Western disarma-
ment proposals was characterized by Moch as significant.
17 Aug 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
.cF.CR ET
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
*me' ifte
2. LONG-RANGE PLANS LACKING FOR PACIFICATION
OF OMAN
COmment on
Neither the Sultan of Muscat nor the
local British authorities in the Persian
Gulf appear to have long-range plans
for pacification of Oman or consolidation
of the Sultan's restored authority over the
Omani villages, according to the American consul general in
Dhahran. Although the Sultan has sent his minister of interior
to Oman to attempt to cultivate tribal support for the Sultan
and determine the whereabouts of the rebel leaders, he appar-
ently has no further plans for developing loyalties in Oman.
The British political resident for the Per-
sian Gulf, who has just returned from a visit to Muscat, was
unable to say whether the Sultan's forces, with or without the
Trucial Scouts, would be able to maintain order in Oman. He
said Britain had no plans to improve the effectiveness and re-
liability of the Sultan's forces. While admitting that such as-
sistance would be useful, he indicated that Britain would prob-
ably be unwilling or unable to provide a subsidy. For the time
being, however, one company of British troops will remain in
Oman.
Future revenues from the new American
oil discovery in Dhofar Province are evidently counted on to
enable the Sultan to win the interior tribes with bribes and
development programs. The British official commented that
if the Sultan could disburse $700,000 annually, it would "make
all the difference." The consul general comments, however,
that unless the oil company is willing to make advances against
future revenues, sufficient sums may not materialize soon
enough.
17 Aug 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin
Page 4
SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
.
oak - 414
3. SOVIET GRAIN PROBLEM TERMED "ACUTE"
The grain
problem was said to be "very, very acute" because of the
1957 drought.
Comment The grain situation has now apparently
become sufficiently alarming to warrant
top-level concern. Preliminary estimates of 1957 grain pro-
duction�the harvest is not yet over--indicate that the yield
will fall to between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000 tons. Produc-
tion in 1956 amounted to about 115,000,000 tons and in 1955 to
about 103,000 ,000 .
If this year's harvest does not exceed the
1955 level, Khrushchev's program to catch up with the US in
milk and meat production will become even more unrealistic.
However, stocks are believed to be sufficient so that a harvest
reduced by 10-15,000,000 tons this year will not require a re-
duction in consumption or export.
17 Aug 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Al-11:41 II A411.1
Nu"
4. SUKARNO REPORTED CONTEMPLATING MAJOR
CHANGES IN JAVA ARMY COMMAND
President Sukarno is contemplating
major army command changes which
would affect Army Chief of Staff Gen-
eral Nasution and some of his deputies,
Sukarno is said to be
keeping his choices to replace them a closely guarded secret.
It is not known whether the three territorial commanders in
Java would be affected.
Comment Sukarno may well be impatient with the
lack of progress by army headquarters
in enforcing its authority over the disaffected provincial com-
manders. Army headquarters officers are generally anti-
Communist and some of them reportedly have opposed Sukarno
in his efforts to implement his concept of guided democracy.
Sukarno undoubtedly is under Communist and leftist pressure
to effect command changes in the army.
He is also under pressure from the pro-
vincial commanders to remove Nasution, and he may feel that
a general reshuffle, replacing present officers with a new group
representative of all army factions, including the leftists, would
help army unity. Such a reshuffle, however, would undoubtedly
give the Communists more influence and for the time being
would probably intensify rather than decrease army disunity.
17 Aug 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6
-CONFIDENTIAL
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
411i.
5. PEIPING MOVES AGAINST NEW TROUBLE IN TIBET
BORDER REGION
Comment on:
JAMINti
AND
KASHMIR
r.oeus do ..oLts;
ElaraHOt
-"V �
Almora
Increased air-drop activity by Chinese
Communist aircraft in the Szechwan-
Tibet border area
suggests that Peiping is moving to quell
new outbreaks of dissident activity in
this troubled region. at
least ten military transports are flying drop missions to
areas where antiguerrilla operations have previously been
noted. The air unit associated with the recent drop activity
received six more transports early last month.
The Chinese Communists decided early
this year to reduce their over-all military and economic com-
mitment in Tibet, but they apparently intend to leave sufficient
fiudOg
.laklakOt
7 MILESS 2t,>0
16 AUGUST 1957
24611
17 Aug 57
Highway
Highway planned or
under construction
Selected railroad
Caravan route
'KLIN 4, UN
S1NKIANG
Shigatse
Mese /
,/ (Gyangtte
FInn Oz mt."'
Itoartaing�
To ang
U BOLDT
C
BURMA
Current Intelligence Bulletin
U S
CHINA
.Itantze
hengiu
SZ SCHWAN,
yadq
I Wtstanlu
yUNNA1N
Page 7
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856
-14111r' 'ger
forces there to maintain control over the main population
centers and keep lines of communication open. In May, the
Chinese military commander in Tibet was ordered "firmly
to defend" the border area against dissidents.
Peiping clearly does not intend to leave a
power vacuum in Tibet which might be exploited by India. The
Indians have provided asylum for many anti-Communist Tibet-
ans, and New Delhi's continuing interest in Tibetan develop-
ments is reflected by Nehru's reported plans to visit Lhasa in
the near future. If he does, the Indian prime minister will prob-
ably find ample evidence that Chinese control is still firm ex-
cept in outlying areas.
17 Aug 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03179856