CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/11/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06813943
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: November 16, 1957

Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C06813943
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
16 November 1957
Copy No. 138
DOCUMENT NO 1.3
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. )14
fl CECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TSIS00Civ
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE. REVIEWER
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
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CONTENTS
1, GROMYKO SUGGESTS BROAD REPRESENTATION IN NEW
EAST-WEST MEETING (page 3).
2. JAPAN EXPECTS TO SIGN OIL AGREEMENT WITH SAUDI
ARABIA SHORTLY (page 4).
� 3. INDONESIAN COMMUNIST LEADER SHOWING CONFIDENCE
(page 5).
4. CESE STUDENTS RIOT IN MALAYA
(page 6).
r. 5. CALL-UP OF SYRIAN RESERVES ON 16 NOVEMBER
(page 7).
6. BONN TO ASK AT NATO MEETING FOR MISSILE PRODUCTION
12.4
'14-o
(page 8).
7. BONN DIPLOMAT TO RECOMMEND GREATER GERMAN ROLE
IN MIDDLE EAST (page 9).
8. BOIN OFFICIAL SEES REDUCED EAST GERMAN HARASS-
MENT OF TRADE (page 10).
9. DUTCH VIEWS ON NEW GUINEA QUESTION BEFORE THE UN
GENERAL ASSEMBLY (page 11).
10. BRITISH THERMONUCLEAR WEAPON TEST
(page 12).
.71-6 11. POIJ.ICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CUBA
16 Nov 57
(page 13).
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1. GROMYKO SUGGESTS BROAD REPRESENTATION IN
NEW EAST-WEST MEETING
Comment on:
Forelgn Minister Gromyko took the
opportunity of a press interview on
13 November to reiterate Khrushchev's
6 November call for a high-level meet-
ing of "representatives of capitalist and socialist countries"
and suggested that its composition might be "wider than at
Geneva in 1955!'
It is unlikely that the Soviet leaders ex-
pected an affirmative Western response to this 1call. They
probably regard the proposal as their most effective means
of countering American and British measures to strengthen
the NATO alliance. Khrushchev's 6 November declaration
that the USSR would never "use any means of destruCtion"
except in retaliation against an "imperialist" attack, as well
as his call for new East-West talks, was calculated to em-
phasize the contrast between Moscow's peaceful coexistence
line and the West's alleged "positions of strength policy!'
The Soviet leaders may be planning to
send formal notes to President Eisenhower and the heads of
the major NATO powers prior to next month's NATO Council
meeting expressing their concern over increased international
tensions and calling for a .broad East-West conference to re-
nounce war as a means of settling international problems, to
end the cold war and the armaments, race, and to establish
international relations on the basis of coexistence. Such an
initiative would be designed to bring pressure on NATO gov-
ernments to postpone decisions on such measures as increas-
ing coordination of defense research and production until
Soviet intentions could he explored in a new round of talks.
16 Nov 57
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2. JAPAN EXPECTS TO SIGN OIL AGREEMENT WITH
SAUDI ARABIA SHORTLY
Comment on:
The Japanese Foreign Ministry has con-
firmed press reports that Japanese
business interests have reached sub-
stantial agreement with Saudi Arabia
on an oil concession in the offshore
neutral zone and are expected to sign about 20 November.
- Earlier reports indicate thatthe_ruler of Kuwait, who has
equal rights with the Saudis in the neutral zone, will prob-
ably join in this agreement.
Under the terms of the agreement, 56
percent of the profits would go to the Arab governments
and 44 percent to the Japanese, thereby breaching the 50-
50 division of profits which prevails in the Middle East.
The British adviser to the ruler of Kuwait states, however,
that when large-volume discounts included in the agreement
are taken into account, the profit split may change to 60-40
in favor of the Japanese.
Japanese business interests have obtained
$10,000,000 to explore the concession, but will require and
probably receive additional financial support from official
sources. The government is objecting to the profit-division
formula, but the American embassy in Tokyo believes that
the agreement will be signed even if the terms cannot be
changed.
Japan probably will request American
technical assistance, presumably on a contract basis, to
conduct underwater drilling.
16 Nov 57
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3. INDONESIAN COMMUNIST LEADER SHOWING CONFIDENCE
Comment on:
In an 8 November speech, Indonesian Com-
munist leader D. N. Aidit said that the
arty would prefer to use parliamentary
methods, but that if it were banned, he
ould be "forced to take other means" to
chieve "socialism" in Indonesia.
The American embassy in Djakarta com-
ments that the Communists, strengthened by recent electoral
successes in Java, probably believe that if left undisturbed
they have good prospects for .capturing Indonesia by ballot and
wish to keep parliamentary institutions available as instruments
to this end. Aidit's references to the peasantry were of such a
nature as to suggest that he intends to follow the example of
Communist China and increase Communist influence in rural
areas rather than rely on the party's present centers of strength
in the cities and trade unions.
Aidit's speech reflects the confidence de-
rived from the Indonesian Communists" greatly improved posi-
tion as the largest party in Java and the second largest Com-
munist party in Asia. The Communists, however, probably
want to increase their influence in both the Indonesian army and
in the non-Javanese areas before attempg to take over the ov-
ernment.
16 Nov 57
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4. CHINESE STUDENTS RIOT IN MALAYA
Comment on:
The generally stable situation that has
prevailed in Malaya since its achieve-
ment of independence in August 1957 has
been broken by student riots which be-
gan on 14 November. This outbreak was touched off by the
government's efforts to eliminate Communist agitators among
students in the Chinese schools. Authorities expect the trouble
to spread, as Chinese students in two other cities including the
capital, Kuala Lumpur, are refusing to attend classes as a re-
sult of this action.
Chinese schools are privately operated and
traditionally have been free of government control or support.
Government leaders are convinced that if subversion is to be
controlled and a "Malayan outlook" developed among Malaya's
2.5 million Chinese, the schools must accept government aid
and regulation. Malayan Education Minister Khir Johari is on
record as saying he will tolerate "no nonsense" in the schools,
and stern government repressive measures can be expected
against any further outbreaks. The continued application of
this policy will, however, almost certainly arouse serious op-
position among the Chinese.
Such a development will place a heavy strain
on the delicately balanced Malay-Chinese political cooperation
within the Alliance party which controls the government. Any
serious breach between the Chinese and Malay communities would
undermine Malaya's stability at a time when the Communist, guer-
rillas have offered to surrender in the hope of undertaking a mass
subversion program.
16 Nov 57
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5. CALL-UP OF SYRIAN RESERVES ON 16 NOVEMBER
Comment on:
Syrian army orders to personnel of
19 unspecified reserve "groups" to re-
port for duty on 16 November probably
constitute another move to exploit the
"national crisis" with Turkey to curb
internal opposition. According to the
Damascus radio on 14 November, the
reserves were being recalled for re-
fresher training; other broadcasts, how-
ever, stated that the reserve units would be deployed on the
Turkish border along with the Egyptian detachments in Syria.
No large-scale recall of Syrian reserves was ordered during
the height of the crisis with Turkey. Most Turkish units
have now completed maneuvers near the Syrian border begun
at the start of the week, and redeployment of some of these
forces to their home stations is expected to begin shortly.
16 Nov 57
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6. BONN TO ASK AT NATO MEETING FOR
MISSILE PRODUCTION
Comment on:
West Germany is planning to propose
to the 16-18 December NATO meeting
the removal of treaty restrictions on
German missile production. It has
- mapped a missile program for weap-
ons from a type of bazooka to a ballis-
tic missile of 900-mile range.
Defense Minister Strauss announced on
14 November that Germany might participate in NATO pro-
duction of a variety of smaller missiles including a surface-
to-surface missile of limited range.
The defense committee of the Bonn cab-
inet has unanimously agreed that the NATO meeting must
produce specific results for strengthening the Atlantic com-
munity, and a Foreign Ministry official has prepared prelim-
inary proposals. His desire for a new US statement of reas-
surance reflects the anxiety felt by continental nations about
the extent of the US commitments to defend Europe in case of
conflict. The official also favors the strengthening of NATO
on the political side, a development France would probably
support. French leaders are expected to insist upon close
coordination by NATO countries of all policies "bearing on
Western solidarity."
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7. BONN DIPLOMAT TO RECOMMEND GREATER GERMAN
ROLE IN MIDDLE EAST
Comment on:
The West German ambassador to Turkey
intends to see Chancellor Adenauer and
recommend closer US-German-Turkish
cooperation in countering Soviet influence
in the Middle East. He also intends to suggest a substantial
German loan to Turkey as a demonstration of the value of
Western assistance and to offset the Soviet attempt to make
a "showcase" of Syria.
He is impressed with the need to bring
Syria and Egypt "back into the Arab fold," and in this respect
sees Nasir as a more valuable and usable instrument than
King Saud.
Bonn's economic influence and political
prestige in Turkey has grown considerably in the past two
years. Turkey, however, has an unfavorable trade balance
of $60,000,000 with West Germany. Egypt is West Germany's
second largest trading partner in the area. Nash.% failure to
follow Tito's lead in recognizing East Germany was well re-
ceived by the Bonn Foreign Ministry, and there is an inclina-
tion to view Nasir in a more favorable light.
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8. BONN OFFICIAL SEES REDUCED EAST GERMAN
HARASSMENT OF TRADE
Comment on:
A West German official who has just
completed interzonal trade negotiations
with his East German counterparts feels
that the East Germans will relax their
harassment of goods movements because of their interest in
maintaining interzonal trade. The new billion-dollar inter-
zonal trade agreement signed on 14 November covers two
years instead of the usual one and maintains substantially
the present level of trade.
While there has been no significant inter-
ference with normal interzonal trade shipments since early
1956,� East Germany has recently been seizing parcel post
shipments to West Germany and carrying out intensive checks
designed to prevent the flow of the new East German currency
to the West. In considering still tighter control measures in
Berlin, the East Germans might be swayed by fear of West
German retaliation cutting down the flow of essential goods,
particularly iron and steel.
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9. DUTCH VIEWS ON NEW GUINEA QUESTION BEFORE
THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Comment on:
On the eve of the UN General Assembly
discussion of the Netherlands New Guinea
issue, the Dutch government is showing
considerable nervousness over the outcome
and increasing resentment over the US position of neutrality.
Foreign. Minister Luns called in Ambassador Young on 14 No-
vember and told him that a recent US statement expressing
hope that the two parties to the dispute could work out their
differences together would in fact be construed as US support
for the Indonesian resolution. He feared this would influence
the Latin American bloc in particular and that the Indonesian
resolution would pass "despite anything the Dutch could do to
stop it."
In view of :the Netherlands,' determina-
tion to hold on to New Guinea, an assembly vote in favor of
bilateral negotiations would probably lead The Hague to deny
UN jurisdiction in the issue and refuse to carry out such a UN
recommendation. The Dutch will probably also blame the US
for any weakening of their hold on New Guinea--thus raising
another colonial issue to trouble the December NATO confer-
ence.
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41.
10. BRITISH THERMONUCLEAR WEAPON TEST
n 8 November, the United Kingdom
ested near Christmas Island a nuclear
eapon which yielded approximately
hree megatons. The explosion, an air
burst, was the sixteenth known to have been conducted by
the UK. Characteristics associated with a thermonuclear
weapon design were observed. However, preliminary analy-
sis of the weapon debris indicates that the device was not
particularly "clean;' or free from radioactivity, as claimed
by the British. The test results indicate a major improve-
ment over devices previously tested by the UK.
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11. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CUBA
Comment on:
Rising tension between Cuban Pres-
ident Batista and opposition groups
is reflected in an increase in anti-
government activities, including
sabotage.
The revolutionary opposition, led
by Fidel Castro in Oriente Province, has opened its
campaign of burning sugar cane fields in order to under-
mine the properous national economy, on which Batista's
continuance in office has depended to a large extent. This
sabotage has had small effect thus far, but the rebels hope
to call a general strike to coincide with the opening of the
sugar harvest in late December, and they have announced
plans to increase political assassinations.
Batista is taking steps to increase the
government's control over the situation. A 13 November
proposal to unify the armed forces under a joint military
board�which would probably be headed by a firm Batista ad-
herent--is probably intended to aid the armed forces in deal-
ing with revolutionary outbreaks.
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