CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/11/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03150404
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: November 5, 1957

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CURRENT
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5 November 1957
Copy No.
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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01.11
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CONTENTS
1. USSR REFUSES TO PARTICIPATE IN FURTHER TALKS IN
PRESENT UN DISARMAMENT BODIES (page 3).
o K 2. YUGOSLAV OFFICIAL BIIITS__k_71. REAPPRAISAL OF SOVIET
YUGOSLAV RELATIONS (page 4).
O/c
3. DEATH OF DI VITTORIO WEAKENS ITALIAN COMMUNIST
LABOR LEADERSHIP (page 5).
4. ISRAEL AGAIN TO SEEK HEAVY US ARMS
(page 6).
bk" 5. KING HUSSAYN ASKS LONG-TERM UNITED STATES SUPPORT
OF JORDANIAN ARMY (page 7).
ce 60 SHAH OF IRAN CRITICAL OF AMERICAN AID PROGRAM
page 8).
0(( 7. INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PLANS TO INFILTRATE NETHER-
LANDS NEW GUINEA (page 9).
C'7 8. MEXICO'S NEXT PRESIDENT POSSIBLY ALREADY CHOSEN
(page 10).
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1. USSR REFUSES TO PARTICIPATE IN FURTHER TALKS
IN PRESENT UN DISARMAMENT BODIES
Comment on:
oviet Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsov's
statement before the UN General Assembly
Political Committee on 4 November that the
USSR "will not participate in the UN Disarm-
ament Commission and its subcommittee in
their present form" probably was intended to block approval of
the Western-backed24-nation proposal calling on the subcom-
mittee to resume negotiations as soon as possible. Kuznetsov's
hint that the USSR might be satisfied with a compromise between
the present subcommittee and the Soviet proposal for a new com-
mission composed of all 82 UN members suggests that the USSR
is seeking to capitalize on dissatisfaction among UN members
over the lack of progress in the subcommittee in order to win
support of neutralist states, particularly India, which favor ex-
panding the present disarmament machinery.
The Soviet leaders, who since last summer
have strongly criticized the work of the subcommittee, appear
confident that any expansion of the present machinery would work
to their advantage, particularly in increasing pressure on the
West to accept Soviet proposals for a suspension of nuclear tests
and a five-year renunciation of the use of nuclear weapons. It
is possible that Kuznetsov's declaration may convince many UN
members that a showdown vote on the 24-power resolution should
be avoided by using the procedural device of sending all proposals
to the Disarmament Commission, where further efforts to ex-
pand its membership could be made.
5 Nov 57
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2. YUGOSLAV OFFICIAL HINTS AT REAPPRAISAL OF
SOVIET-YUGOSLAV RELATIONS
Comment on:
Jose Vilfan, confidant of President Tito,
on 1 November told the US charg�n
Belgrade that there had been no prior
indications that Soviet boss Khrushchev
would "upset the balance of power within
the Kremlin," and intimated that a "reap-
praisal of the Yugoslav analysis" is required
now that he has done so. High Yugoslav of-
ficials had previously indicated their anti-
pathy to one-man rule in the USSR and their support for the
Khrushchev-Zhukov "team." Zhukov was considered a force
that augured well for stability.
Vilfan implies that the ouster of Zhukov
stems primarily from a Khrushchev-Zhukov rivalry. Appar-
ently the general view in the Yugoslav Foreign Ministry is that
Khrushchev's precarious hold on the Soviet central committee
forced him to cooperate with a Stalinist wing which had initiated
Zhukov's removal. The Yugoslav radio, according to the Times
correspondent in Belgrade, announced on 2 November that it was
Party Secretary Mikhail Suslov--a Stalinist in Yugoslav eyes--
who delivered the final report before the Soviet central committee
on the Zhukov ouster. This explanation is more consistent with
the view long held in Belgrade that Khrushchev faces serious
opposition in the party and requires all possible support for his
policies if he is to overcome his opponents. Belgrade's concern
will probably induce increased caution in its relations with the
USSR.
5 Nov 57
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3. DEATH OF DI VITTORIO WEAKENS ITALIAN COMMUNIST
LABOR LEADERSHIP
Comment on:
The death on 3 November of Giuseppe Di
Vittorio, secretary general of the Com-
munist-dominated Italian General Con-
federation of Labor (CGIL) since 1946,
leaves it without a strong popular leader
in the face of an internal crisis and lessening control over
Italian labor.
In the past year the CGILis membership
has dropped about 200,000 and in 1957 for the first time it
has won less than 50 percent of the posts in shop steward
elections. Nenni Socialist members have become increasing-
ly critical of the CGIL's subservience to the Communist line
and failure to press for immediate workers' benefits. Partly
in response to this criticism, Di Vittorio said in August 1956
that the CGIL should become independent of all political parties.
The Italian Communist party is faced with
a dilemma in its choice for a replacement. If it backs a depend-
able Communist such as CGIL Secretary Second� Pessi, it risks
further straining relations with the Nenni Socialist members and
worsening morale of the rank and file, with whom Pessi is un-
popular. If it backs a Nenni Socialist such as Secretary Fernando
Santi, it risks a further divergence of CGIL and Communist party
policies. A compromise candidate might be Communist Senator
Renaldo Bitossi, another CGIL secretary, who appears to be
better qualified and more popular than Pessi but does not stand
as well with the party leadership.
5 Nov 57
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4. ISRAEL AGAIN TO SEEK HEAVY US ARMS
Comment on:
Israel has decided to approach the
United States again for heavy arms,
including the latest jet fighters and
possibly submarines,
the
French Mystere jet fighters which
Israel now has are definitely inferior
to the MIG-19's with which Israel be-
lieves Egypt is already or may soon
be equipped, and that while Israel's
"need" for submarines could be crit-
icized on military grounds, subma-
rines would be expected to have a de-
terrent psychological effect on Arab
countries.
An Israeli approach to the United States--
possibly a pro forma preliminary to obtaining additional arms
from Western Europe--would be part of a renewed effort to
balance the Soviet arms in Arab hands. This effort probably
is spurred by the uninterrupted trend toward closer Syrian-
Soviet military and economic collaboration. The Israelis
may believe that with increasing Soviet assistance, Syria is
well on the way toward becoming a threat comparable to that
posed by Egypt before the Sinai campaign last year.
The Israelis almost certainly are solicit-
ing aid and advice from Western Europe as well as from the
United States. On 5 November the chief of intelligence of the
Israeli army is scheduled to begin a two-week visit to Italy,
France, England, and perhaps Switzerland.
5 Nov 57
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5. KING HUSSAYN ASKS LONG-TERM UNITED STATES
SUPPORT OF JORDANIAN ARMY
Commerit on:
Jordan's continuing inability to maintain
its army without outside financial assist-
ance has led King Hussayn and Deputy
Prime Minister Rifai to appeal for long-
term American financial support of the
army. The King indicated that only the
Saudis had actually met their obligation
under the annual $35,000,000 subsidy to
the Jordanian army agreed on last spring by Egypt, Syria,
and Saudi Arabia. Hussayn is now convinced that assistance
from Iraq also will not be forthcoming, and has suggested
that the United States might consider channeling aid through
Saudi Arabia, with the Saudis continuing to provide $14,000,000
and the United States the remaining $21,000,000.
King Hussayn probably does not consider
even the Saudi payment secure. The second half of the Saudi
aid was reportedly delayed and will be spread over the next
five months because of Saudis shortage of foreign exchange.
This delay has already compelled Jordan to request emer-
gency advance payment of $3,000,000 from existing American
aid funds to meet the 25 October army payroll.
While the Jordanian leaders are striving
to ensure a secure source of financial support for the army,
which alone keeps Hussaynts pro-Western regime in power,
there are new signs of political disaffection among army and
national guard officers in West Jordan. The ultranationalist
"free officers' group" has renewed its activity there, partly
in resistance to Amman's attempts to tighten control over the
population. Efforts have been made by this group to sound
out local West Jordanian leaders on the acceptability of a coup
to replace the unpopular pro-Western government with military
rule.
5 Nov 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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6. SHAH OF IRAN CRITICAL OF AMERICAN AID PROGRAM
Comment on:
The Shah of Iran has implied that he be-
lieves his country might do better if its
adherence to the Western camp were not
so complete and unqualified as in the past,
/bitter over the re-
fusal of the United States to build a first class military air-
field in Iran while agreeing to build one in Afghanistan. The
Shah complained about the difference in the amount of aid re-
ceived by Iran during the past three years as compared to
that received by Yugoslavia and Turkey.
The Shah's attitude was revealed following
a dema,rche by the Pakistani ambassador who, on behalf of the
other Baghdad Pact powers, had expressed opposition to a
scheduled speech by the Soviet ambassador to Iran over Radio
Tehran on 7 November. In granting the ambassador permis-
sion to use the government radio, Foreign Minister Ardalan
had not consulted the Council of Ministers but apparently did
obtain the approval of the Shah.
The Shah has previously indicated his dis-
satisfaction with the level of American aid to Iran and recently
stated that Iran should follow a policy of "positive nationalism,"
but not neutralism. He may be contemplating to exploit East-
West differences over the Middle East to secure additional aid
for his country,
5 Nov 57
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7. INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PLANS TO INFILTRATE
NETHERLANDS NEW GUINEA
Comment on:
The Indonesian government has ordered
he police mobile brigade "to prepare to
'nfiltrate" Netherlands New Guinea if the
UN discussion on the disputed area does
not reach a conclusion satisfactory to Indonesia
Mobile brigade
personnel are already being trained to implement an infiltra-
tion plan which calls for clandestine troop landings of brief
duration in order to deliver weapons, radios, and funds to
"West Irian" nationalists. The Indonesian government is cur-
rently conducting a large-scale domestic campaign for the "re-
turn of West Irian," and several officials have threatened that
force would be used if other means fail.
The Indonesian government engaged in this
type of paramilitary activity against New Guinea between 1953
and 1956. Heretofore, however, the army rather than the po-
lice has been involved. The mobile brigade is a special secu-
rity force of 18,800 men which is better trained and equipped
than the army, and is considerably more effective.
Indonesia is not believed capable of mount-
ing an all-out military invasion of New Guinea and is unlikely
to make the attempt. It apparently has a long-range plan, how-
ever, to stimulate a nationalist movement in the area among
scattered elements on the coast who have pro-Indonesian sym-
pathies. Djakarta probably hopes to persuade them to rise
against the Dutch and appeal to Indonesia for help. Although
the Dutch will not be dislodged by small groups of infiltrators,
their small military force in New Guinea--1,250 marines, six
small naval vessels, and a 1,600-man police force--would have
great difficulty in suppressing guerrilla warfare encouraged
and supported by Djakarta.
5 Nov 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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8. MEXICO'S NEXT PRESIDENT POSSIBLY
ALREADY CHOSEN
Adolfo Lopez Mateos, capable young
minister of labor, appears almost
sure to be named presidential candi-
date at the 15 November nominating
convention of the Institutional Revo-
lutionary party (PHI). Nomination
by the PHI, the political composite
which has governed Mexico under var-
ious names for almost 40 years, is
tantamount to election. The voting
will not take place until July 1958.
Most reports agree that President
Ruiz Cortines has chosen Lopez Mateos as his successor,
presumably after consultation with the two powerful for-
mer presidents of Mexico. Lazaro Cardenas, whose ad-
ministration was highlighted by expropriation of foreign
oil holdings in 1938, represents the nationalist, neutral-
ist, leftist PR! wing. Miguel Aleman, who gave industrial
development first priority during his presidential term
(1946-52), speaks for the conservative groups who want
to see Mexico's great economic progress of the last ten
years maintained by an administration responsive to busi-
ness interests. Both factions can find reason for support
of Lopez Mateos in his record of mediation, praised by
labor and management alike.
The labor minister has usually been
friendly to the United States, though the solid support
given him by local leftist elements may indicate they ex-
pect even more opportunity for action under his presidency
than Mexico's traditional indulgence of political leftists
has previously provided.
5 Nov 57
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